The Full Belmonte, 2/12/2024
Trump says he once told a NATO ally to pay its share or he’d ‘encourage’ Russia to do what it wanted
“Donald Trump said that, as president, he warned NATO allies that he ‘would encourage’ Russia ‘to do whatever the hell they want’ to countries that are ‘delinquent’ as the front-runner for the Republican nomination ramped up his attacks on foreign aid and long-standing international alliances. Read more.
Why this matters:
NATO’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, said Trump’s words could undermine security and put American and European forces at risk. ‘Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the U.S., and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,’ he said in a statement Sunday.
Trump’s remarks come as Ukraine remains mired in its efforts to stave off Russia’s invasion and as Republicans in Congress have become increasingly skeptical of providing additional aid to the country as it struggles with stalled counteroffensives and weapons shortfalls.” [AP News]
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes celebrates after winning Super Bowl LVIII (John Locher/AP)
Super Bowl
“The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII to become the first back-to-back NFL champions in 19 years. Led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs' overtime 25-22 victory cements the team's legacy as the league's next great dynasty with its third ring under head coach Andy Reid. Celebrations were filled with tears, kisses and confetti as Mahomes was named the game's Most Valuable Player — the third time in his career. Taylor Swift embraced the Chiefs' Travis Kelce on the field after the game, marking a fitting end to a season where the pop star and tight end's relationship introduced new fans to America's most-watched sport. Many fans were also pleased with the halftime show after R&B singer Usher performed 13 minutes of his top hits accompanied by dozens of dancers and acrobats.” [CNN]
Gaza
“The Israeli military said its forces rescued two hostages during a special operation conducted overnight in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, 128 days after their capture on October 7. The rescue came under sustained Israeli airstrikes throughout the night that the Palestine Red Crescent Society said killed more than 100 people. Over the weekend, President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed a deal to secure the release of hostages in Gaza, as well as Israel's ground assault on Rafah. However, Hamas has said a ground offensive in the embattled region — now home to more than half of Gaza's population — would mean the end of hostage negotiations.” [CNN]
Church shooting
“Police in Texas are investigating a Sunday shooting at pastor Joel Osteen's Lakewood Church — roughly 6 miles from downtown Houston. Authorities said a woman armed with a long gun walked into the megachurch accompanied by a young child and began firing. Two people were injured, including the child who was hit during the shooting that unfolded shortly before 2 p.m. local time while the church was in between services. "‘ can only imagine if it would have happened during the 11 o'clock service,’ Osteen said, adding the community is ‘devastated.’ The shooter was killed after two off-duty law enforcement officers confronted her, police said. She also threatened that she had a bomb, but authorities searched her vehicle and backpack and found no explosives.” [CNN]
Aid package
“The Senate is moving closer to passing a $95.3 billion foreign aid bill with crucial assistance for Ukraine and Israel following a key vote on Sunday to advance the package. The vote was 67 to 27 — including the support of 18 Republicans despite former President Donald Trump urging GOP lawmakers to block the bill. One more Republican senator voted ‘yes’ on Sunday's procedural vote than Thursday's vote on the bill — a sign that GOP support for the measure has remained consistent and even expanded in recent days. If the bill is passed by the Senate, it would next go to the House, where it's unclear when or whether Speaker Mike Johnson would hold a vote on it.” [CNN]
“ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. publicly apologized to family members late last night after a super PAC supporting his independent presidential campaign aired a $7 million Super Bowl spot that appropriated a famed 1960 ad aired by uncle JOHN F. KENNEDY: ‘Federal rules prohibit Superpacs from consulting with me or my staff. I send you and your family my sincerest apologies. God bless you.’ The ad remains pinned to the top of Kennedy’s X timeline this morning.” More from Brittany Gibson and Sam Stein … The ad … The original … The reaction from cousins BOBBY and MARK SHRIVER [POLITICO]
Austin re-hospitalized
Screenshot: Department of Defense
“After a blizzard of criticism for the secrecy surrounding Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's last hospitalization, the Pentagon issued three statements in seven hours yesterday when he was taken back to the critical care unit at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.
Austin was brought in ‘for symptoms suggesting an emergent bladder issue,’ his doctors said: ‘The current bladder issue is not expected to change his anticipated full recovery. His cancer prognosis remains excellent.’” [Axios]
GOP Rising Star and China Watchdog Mike Gallagher to Quit Congress
Wisconsin representative has been courted for Senate run, but plans not to seek re-election and to leave Washington
Mike Gallagher, a former Marine Corps intelligence officer, says he always saw Congress as ‘a deployment, not a career.’ PHOTO: ALEX WROBLEWSKI FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
“WASHINGTON—Rep. Mike Gallagher (R., Wis.), a fourth-term lawmaker who chairs a committee aimed at helping the U.S. compete against China, said he won’t run for re-election—a blow to the establishment wing of the Republican party, which had hoped he would have a bigger future in politics.
The 39-year-old former Marine Corps intelligence officer cast the decision as personal, saying that he had always planned to treat his service in Congress as ‘a deployment, not a career.’ His departure will further erode the ranks of GOP committee chairs, following decisions by other Republican chairs not to see another term.
‘Eight years is a long deployment, and it’s been a hell of a deployment,’ Gallagher said in an interview. A married father of two, Gallagher also said he hoped to expand his family and that ‘Congress is not an ideal place to build and raise a family.’
He had previously ruled out a run for the U.S. Senate, saying he preferred to stay in the House, where he felt his work as a committee chair would make a lasting impact. Republicans had hoped he would run because the Wisconsin Senate seat is one of eight Democratic-held seats rated by the Cook Political Report, a non–partisan election arbiter, as at risk of falling to Republican hands. Gallagher has also consistently outperformed former GOP President Donald Trump, and his principal campaign committee had more than $4 million in cash on hand at the end of 2023, federal records show—more than any other House Republican.
Gallagher has split with his party on some high-profile issues, most recently this past week, when he voted against impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in a blow to House Republican leaders.
The youngest committee chairman, Gallagher is also a member of the House Intelligence Committee—another assignment made by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.)—and a member of the House Armed Services Committee, where he chairs a subcommittee. Gallagher’s most prominent role has been as chairman of a select committee aimed at devising strategies to help the U.S. better compete against China. He has used the role to investigate where extensive U.S. commercial links are making China stronger—and then to map out how to disentangle them….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Israel presses toward Rafah as US demands plan to protect civilians
“Israel's determination to pursue Hamas militants into the overcrowded city of Rafah in southern Gaza threatens civilian lives, a decades-long peace treaty with Egypt and progress in cease-fire negotiations. In a call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, President Joe Biden reiterated his view that Israel should not carry out an expected military operation in Rafah without plans to prioritize civilian safety. More than half of Gaza's 2.3 million residents are now located in Rafah, which Israel says stands as Hamas' last stronghold. Read more
•Mediators, neighbors and allies of Israel gave stark warnings about a possible ground invasion of Rafah, where 1.4 million people are living.” [USA Today]
People inspect debris and rubble in a building heavily damaged by Israeli bombardment, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on February 11, 2024.
SAID KHATIB, AFP via Getty Images
“Death of a Kenyan champion: Kelvin Kiptum, the men's marathon world record holder, died in a road accident in his home country. He was 24 years old.” [BBC]
“There was a familiar sinking feeling across Europe when Donald Trump lobbed his latest grenade at NATO.
Speaking at a campaign rally, the former US president said that when in office he’d told a European leader that he’d let Russia do ‘whatever the hell they want’ to alliance members that didn’t meet their defense-spending pledges.
NATO has long been a Trump target, but this was a statement calculated to outrage further, calling into question the alliance’s central tenet that all will come to the aid of one if it’s attacked, and the commitment of its strongest member, the US.
WATCH: Trump saying that he once told a European leader he would abandon NATO members to a Russian invasion if they hadn’t met defense-spending commitments. Source: Bloomberg
The timing was doubly offensive, coming as Republicans stall President Joe Biden’s package to help Ukraine defend against Vladimir Putin’s aggression.
Even putting aside the veracity of his assertion, European leaders might take solace in the reality that the NATO of today is a different beast to the alliance of 2016, when Trump won the presidency.
Defense budgets across Europe and Canada have gone up for nine consecutive years, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said in November.
While it’s true that some of the impetus can be attributed to Trump’s hectoring, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and warnings that the Baltics could be next have cemented the shift.
Take Germany, the continent’s dominant economic power whose military capabilities were neglected after the Cold War — it’s on course to exceed NATO targets this year. That includes €35 billion ($38 billion) on armaments, more than Italy’s entire defense budget last year.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz is today opening a Rheinmetall munitions plant that will go some way to supplying Europe’s needs.
Many charge that’s still not enough. Other European nations still fall short.
Yet as Stoltenberg said, these are often unpopular decisions, and Europe is stepping up.
Whether or not Trump returns to the presidency, Europe knows it has no choice but to do more to defend itself in future.” — Alan Crawford [Bloomberg]
Russian President Vladimir Putin gifts Trump a football from the 2018 World Cup during a press conference in Helsinki. Photographer: Yuri Kadobnov/AFP/Getty Images
“The US presidential election in November has intensified pressure on both the presumed candidates — Biden and Trump — to turn up the heat on China. While the Republican frontrunner is pitching a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, which would effectively shrink a $575 billion trade pipeline to practically nothing, his rhetoric may prompt Biden to take harsher measures in the run-up to voting day. Whoever wins, China loses.” [Bloomberg]
“The two main family-controlled parties in Pakistan are considering forming a coalition government to thwart Imran Khan’s group after the jailed former cricket star’s candidates won the most seats in the country’s election. The scenario would be a closing of ranks by Pakistan’s old guard after Khan’s loyalists — running as independents — put in a strong performance in Thursday’s election, showing the public’s support for the former prime minister and disillusionment with the status quo.” [Bloomberg]
“Alexander Stubb pledged to bring his nation to the core of NATO after he was elected president of newest alliance member Finland yesterday. The 55-year-old former prime minister represents continuity in foreign and security policy, with a focus on supporting Ukraine and integrating Finland into NATO, which it joined in April.” [Bloomberg]
“The political turmoil engulfing Senegal is yet another obstacle in its drawn-out effort to capitalize on large oil and gas finds. The West African nation joins others on the continent that have struggled to ride some of the world’s biggest discoveries in decades. As Paul Burkhardt and Katarina Hoije report, the finds rarely live up to their promise, often doing more harm than good.” [Bloomberg]
“A new political party backed by former South African President Jacob Zuma may help end the dominance of the African National Congress, which has ruled the country since the end of apartheid, a Social Research Foundation poll showed.” [Bloomberg]
“Sebastian Pinera’s sudden death deprives Chile’s right wing of a unifying force, leaving a stark choice between pursuing the former president’s liberal, pragmatic view, or shifting to a new more populist agenda.” [Bloomberg]
February 12, 2024
By German Lopez
Good morning. We’re covering the decline of the N.R.A. —
The N.R.A. headquarters in Fairfax, Va. Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA, via Shutterstock
‘A shell of itself’
“A decade ago, the National Rifle Association seemed like an unstoppable force in American politics. A shooter had killed 20 children at an elementary school in Newtown, Conn., in 2012. Democrats and Republicans in Congress appeared ready to pass new restrictions on guns. The N.R.A. called on its members to contact their representatives and voice their opposition, and the bills died.
Today, the N.R.A. has shed hundreds of thousands of members and large sums of money. It is standing trial for fraud and self-dealing in New York. ‘The N.R.A. is little more than a shell of itself after hemorrhaging hundreds of millions in legal fees,’ Joshua Powell, a former top N.R.A. official who settled with the state before the trial, told The Times. The organization’s fall is not a death knell for Second Amendment advocates, but it is a blow.
Today’s newsletter will explain what went wrong with the group.
Loss of trust
The N.R.A.’s troubles began with a feud with its advertising agency, Ackerman McQueen.
The agency was effectively the public face of the N.R.A. for decades, spearheading the group’s online channel NRATV and campaigns like ‘I am the N.R.A.’ But the relationship between the company and its client deteriorated. They disagreed about political messaging. At one point, N.R.A. leadership accused Ackerman McQueen of trying to oust the group’s leader, Wayne LaPierre.
Wayne LaPierre Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
The N.R.A. and Ackerman McQueen fought out their differences in court and settled in 2022.
But the infighting drew government officials’ attention. After an investigation, New York’s attorney general, Letitia James, filed a lawsuit in 2020. She has cited exorbitant spending by the N.R.A.’s leaders, particularly LaPierre’s use of the nonprofit’s funds to cover millions of dollars in expensive clothes, travel and other luxuries.
Many of the N.R.A.’s members lost trust in the organization and quit, which meant they also stopped paying their dues. To deal with shrinking revenue and mounting legal expenses, the N.R.A. cut programs that were popular with members, such as gun training and education.
The result: The N.R.A. has lost more than one million members, out of six million at its peak in 2018. Its revenue has dropped by more than 40 percent since 2016.
Lasting effect
For many liberals, the N.R.A.’s troubles are a cathartic dose of good news. But its decline may not lead to an immediate shift in gun politics, in part because the N.R.A. was so successful in the past.
First, the organization has already transformed American politics and culture around guns. In 1959, 60 percent of Americans supported banning civilian handgun ownership, according to Gallup. Last year, just 27 percent did. Republicans in particular have embraced the N.R.A.’s agenda.
Second, the Supreme Court has cemented gun rights into law. Over the past two decades, it has ruled that Americans have an individual right to bear arms and that restrictions on firearms must cross new legal hurdles. Even if lawmakers overcome political opposition to pass new gun laws, they may not survive the courts.
The N.R.A. ‘does not have much else left to do,’ said Mike Spies, who has investigated the group for ProPublica and The Trace. ‘It already turned the gun issue into a tribal issue, and gun ownership into not just a matter of owning a gun but a set of values and lifestyle.’
Finally, other groups — some much more strident — have risen to take the N.R.A.’s place. Gun Owners of America, which has described the N.R.A. as ‘too liberal,’ has in recent years spent millions lobbying against gun control. The Second Amendment Foundation has focused on the legal battles, challenging the constitutionality of local and state laws.
Still, the N.R.A.’s decline does not help the gun rights movement. Already, the N.R.A.’s opposition was not enough to stop Congress from passing a bipartisan gun safety law in 2022.
Some state and federal lawmakers hope to pass additional measures that expand background checks, ban assault weapons and remove guns from dangerous people. In the past, the N.R.A. could call on its members to defeat such bills. It is now less able to do so.” [New York Times]