The Full Belmonte, 1/8/2024
Hezbollah said one of its commanders was killed in a strike in Lebanon, adding to concerns over a wider war as Israel battles Hamas in Gaza.
“In a statement, Hezbollah identified the commander as Wissam Hassan Al-Tawil and said he was killed in a strike in Khirbet Selm, a village in southern Lebanon that is about nine miles from the Israeli border.”
Read more at New York Times
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR
With each strike, fears grow that Israel, the US and Iran's allies are inching closer to all-out war
“In the past week alone, Israel has killed a senior Hamas militant in Beirut, Hezbollah has fired barrages of rockets into Israel, and Iran-backed rebels in Yemen have traded fire with the American Navy. Each strike and counterstrike increases the risk of the already catastrophic war in Gaza spilling across the region. Read more.
Why this matters:
Hamas says the Oct. 7 attack was an act of purely Palestinian resistance and there is no evidence that outside groups played a direct role in the attack. But when Israel responded by launching one of the 21st century’s most devastating military campaigns in Gaza, the so-called Axis of Resistance — Iran and the militant groups across the region — could hardly stay on the sidelines.
Of all Iran’s regional proxies, Hezbollah faces the biggest dilemma. If it tolerates Israeli attacks, it risks appearing to be a weak or unreliable ally. But if it triggers an all-out war, Israel has threatened to wreak massive destruction on Lebanon, which is already mired in a severe economic crisis.
The last thing most Americans want after decades of costly campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan is another war in the Middle East. But in recent weeks, U.S. forces have killed a senior Iran-backed militia commander in Iraq and 10 Houthi rebels, spilling blood that could call out for a response.” [AP News]
“Congressional leaders reached an agreement yesterday that would fund the government through the end of the fiscal year and avoid a government shutdown. The text must now be finalized, and Congress must pass the bills before the Jan. 19 deadline. The top-line figure includes $886 billion for defense and $704 billion for non-defense spending.
Stefan Zaklin/Getty Images
House Speaker Mike Johnson and President Biden agreed to essentially the same amount of spending that Biden and ousted speaker Kevin McCarthy agreed to last year in a deal that ultimately helped doom McCarthy, NPR's Eric McDaniel reports on Up First. This has upset some anti-compromise Republicans, who wanted to leverage the looming government funding deadline to get more policy concessions for things like abortion access and a southern U.S. border wall.” [NPR]
© The Associated Press / Mark Schiefelbein | Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Dec. 13.
Will new funding deal prevent a shutdown?
“House conservatives rested over the holidays, traveled to the border last week to issue some policy demands and say they’re ready to rumble.
Congress returns to Washington Tuesday, flirting with cutting off funding for big chunks of the government in 11 days unless demands are met for immigration and border restrictions. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced a deal Sunday on a total amount the government will spend in the new year, breaking one logjam but not necessarily erasing the threat of a shutdown after Jan. 19.
President Biden commended the glimmer of progress, with caveats. “Congressional Republicans must do their job, stop threatening to shut down the government, and fulfill their basic responsibility to fund critical domestic and national security priorities, including my supplemental [funding] request. It’s time for them to act,” he said in a statement.
Welcome to 2024, so much like 2023.
“The president has the existent authority under federal law to stem the flow [of migration],” Johnson told CBS’s “Face the Nation” during an interview broadcast Sunday. “If you instituted, reinstituted the [Trump era] Remain in Mexico policy, for example, it was estimated … that would stem the flow by maybe 70 percent. I mean, that's a simple measure, an executive order that the White House could undertake. On his first day in office, President Biden came in and issued executive orders that began this chaos.”
Biden ended the Trump policy that required migrants seeking asylum to remain in Mexico until their U.S. immigration court dates. The Supreme Court said he had that authority. House conservatives adopted a measure last year that would reinstate Trump’s policy.
Johnson last week led a delegation of about 60 Republicans to the U.S. southern border. Calling the influx of migrants a “humanitarian catastrophe,” Johnson increased his calls for the president to exercise his executive authority to discourage migrants and asylum seekers from seeking to enter the U.S.
CBS News: Pressured by record migrant crossings last month, the White House weighs whether to restrict a key presidential immigration authority to persuade Republican lawmakers to approve more aid to Ukraine and border funding.
The Hill: Democrats face tough choices in border vs. shutdown scenario.
The Washington Post: Congress has a $1.66 trillion deal to fund the government and not much time to pass it.
Johnson seeks his first major legislative deal as Speaker in an environment in which Freedom Caucus members could end his tenure if he crosses them this year. Ultimatums tied to threats of shutdowns are viewed by many in Congress as politically injurious in an election year. And former President Trump, focused on locking up his party’s nomination, is expected to call the shots on issues he considers his signatures. Immigration and border security are examples.
Johnson’s strategy and clout are being tested.
“Right now I just don’t think he really is serious enough. I don’t think he has the gravitas or has the ability to control the far right,” former Virginia Rep. Denver Riggleman, who said last year that he switched his affiliation from Republican to independent, told Bloomberg’s “Balance of Power” on Thursday.
“They are actually following the marching orders of Donald Trump. … He is the one pushing the message here and Mike Johnson is just going to be a mouthpiece,” Riggleman predicted.” [The Hill]
NTSB Investigator-in-Charge John Lovell examines the fuselage plug area of Alaska Airlines Flight 1282. (National Transportation Safety Board via AP)
U.S. NEWS
Boeing jetliner that suffered inflight blowout was restricted because of concern over warning light
“The Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 Max 9 jetliner that suffered an inflight blowout Friday over Oregon was not being used for flights to Hawaii after a warning light that could have indicated a pressurization problem lit up on three different flights, a federal official said Sunday. The lost door plug was found Sunday near Portland by a school teacher who discovered it in his backyard. Read more.
Why this matters:
After the incident, the Federal Aviation Administration ordered the grounding of 171 Max 9s, including all those operated by Alaska Airlines and United Airlines, until they could be inspected. Alaska Airlines and United are the only U.S. airlines that fly the Boeing Max 9.
The Max is the newest version of Boeing’s venerable 737, a twin-engine, single-aisle plane frequently used on U.S. domestic flights. The plane went into service in May 2017 but after two Max 8 jets crashed in 2018 and 2019, all Max 8 and Max 9 planes were grounded worldwide for nearly two years until Boeing made changes to an automated flight control system.
The Max has been plagued by other issues, including manufacturing flaws, concern about overheating that led the FAA to tell pilots to limit use of an anti-ice system, and a possible loose bolt in the rudder system.” [AP News]
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin failed to disclose a lengthy hospitalization.
“What happened? The Pentagon chief didn’t tell the White House for days that he had been in intensive care beginning Jan. 1 following an elective medical procedure last month.
Why it matters: Top Cabinet officials normally disclose their whereabouts and health conditions. Austin, who remains hospitalized, said he ‘could have done a better job.’
Read this story at Washington Post
The U.S. launched its first spacecraft to the moon in more than 50 years.
“What to know: The uncrewed commercial spacecraft is expected to land on the moon Feb. 23. This morning’s launch is part of NASA’s plan to return humans to the lunar surface.
What to watch for: A different company, also commissioned by NASA, is planning a landing Feb. 22 — a sign of the new space race between companies, not countries.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Winter storm
“A whirlwind of winter weather is in store for the Southeast today where a powerful storm is set to deliver heavy rain and the threat of tornadoes before creating headaches for those farther north. Around 70 million people are at risk for severe weather through at least Tuesday, according to the Storm Prediction Center — with a Level 3 of 5 enhanced risk today for cities including New Orleans, Gulfport, Mississippi and Mobile, Alabama. The storm already made its way through the Four Corners region on Sunday, causing treacherous travel conditions. It also arrives just a day after a winter storm dumped more than a foot of snow on the Northeast, which brought snow, ice and even a tornado as it tracked from the Gulf Coast to Maine.” [CNN]
Iowa's frequent travelers
Data: Des Moines Register. (Tracker includes scheduled public events, not informal stops.) Map: Jared Whalen/Axios
“With former President Trump set to win the Iowa caucuses a week from today, his challengers' hopes ride on how much they carve into his lead.
Their second — and, for many, last — chance will be the New Hampshire primary the following week, 15 days from today.
Axios' Sophia Cai and Alex Thompson analyzed the GOP candidates' Hawkeye State schedules, using data from the Des Moines Register's tracker:
Trump emphasized big rallies in urban centers — with help from surrogates, including South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and former HUD Secretary Ben Carson.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who visited all 99 Iowa counties, was endorsed by Gov. Kim Reynolds. But he's been thwarted by Trump's popularity with evangelicals, who are big in Iowa.
Nikki Haley has emphasized stops in voter-dense suburbs. She held 51 events in Iowa during the past year — more than double Trump (24), but far fewer than DeSantis (99) or Ramaswamy (239).
Vivek Ramaswamy, Iowa's most-traveled candidate, holds as many as 10 events a day. But polls show he's gotten little bang for his mileage.” [Axios]
“It’s tricky to find much ground for optimism into 2024. There are two major conflicts raging and many smaller ones. China is asserting itself militarily with neighbors. There are dystopian warnings about AI taking over. And there’s a pretty full electoral calendar.
In Russia, there seems little doubt Vladimir Putin will secure another term, and he shows no sign of slowing his war in Ukraine. In Europe, parliamentary elections will give us a sense of voter appetite for hard-right anti-immigration groups in core member states like France and Germany.
Narendra Modi looks set to romp back into power in India, where he’s taking an increasingly hardcore Hindu nationalist line.
In the US, there’s the prospect of another Donald Trump presidency after an extremely disruptive first term. There, though, we’d at least have the benefit of a sober assessment of Trump Mark I. That may leave other nations, US officials and lawyers a bit more prepared on how potentially to navigate Trump Mark II.
And not all electoral winds are blowing toward the polarizing parties — take the shift in power in Poland in 2023. Voters will also insist the winner of a UK election expected this year tackles structural problems with the national health service and infrastructure.
Elsewhere, Xi Jinping’s need to deal with a sprawling corruption scandal in China’s military will likely put the brakes on any attempt for now to forcibly unify with Taiwan.
The war between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas continues in Gaza but so far Iran’s many proxies (Hezbollah, the Houthis) have not triggered a wider Middle East conflict. They have reasons not to given the risks to themselves, and they are acutely aware of that.
The quality of democracy is arguably suffering, even if countries remain technically democratic because they hold elections. Still, democracy is not designed to be static. It should hold itself up to challenge and adapt. Perhaps 2024 will give it the potential to do so.” — Rosalind Mathieson [Bloomberg]
A rally for Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s vice president and presidential candidate for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, in Taipei on Jan. 3. Photographer: Lam Yik Fei/Bloomberg
“The second large-scale Russian missile barrage of the year pounded Ukraine overnight as temperatures dropped below freezing in the latest escalation of aerial attacks. After months of relatively few air strikes, Moscow ramped up bombardments just before the New Year, firing hundreds of missiles at cities across Ukraine, including the capital, Kyiv.” [Bloomberg]
“The Israel-Hamas war could ‘easily’ turn into a full-blown Middle East conflict, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, as he travels across the region to calm tensions and urge Israel to do more to protect civilians in Gaza. Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah militants based in Lebanon are mounting, with near daily skirmishes, while Red Sea shipping attacks by the Houthis led the US and its allies to contemplate striking targets in Yemen, where the rebels are based.” [Bloomberg]
“One year after Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed the Brazilian capital in a bid to overturn his election defeat, members of his inner circle are trying to refashion the right-wing movement he inspired to broaden its appeal. Yet as Daniel Carvalho and Andrew Rosati report, in seeking to move to the center-right ahead of October municipal elections, the former president’s party is running into a major obstacle: Bolsonaro himself.” [Bloomberg]
“The title of the world’s longest-serving female head of government remains with Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after her party swept most parliament seats in an election boycotted by her opponents and many voters. The poll, which saw the second-lowest turnout since the country’s return to democracy in 1991, followed a sweeping crackdown by her government.” [Bloomberg]
“Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock signaled Germany is prepared to lift a veto on selling Eurofighter aircraft to Saudi Arabia, a move that would reverse the ruling coalition’s policy of not supplying weapons to countries involved in the conflict in Yemen.” [Bloomberg]
“China has detained the head of an overseas consulting firm for allegedly being employed by the UK’s MI6 intelligence service to spy on the Asian nation.” [Bloomberg]
“Prime Minister Fumio Kishida suffered another blow in Japan’s widest-ranging political scandal in decades with the arrest of a ruling party lawmaker yesterday.” [Bloomberg]
Years of abuse by Nigerian 'prophet'
TB Joshua was hugely influential in Nigeria - and across the world. Credit: Getty Images
“On his death in June 2021, TB Joshua was hailed as one of the most influential pastors in African history. Rising from poverty, he had built an evangelical empire that counted dozens of political leaders, celebrities and international footballers among his associates. But the charismatic leader secretly committed sexual crimes on a mass scale, a BBC investigation helmed by Africa Eye's Charlie Northcott and Helen Spooner and spanning three continents has found. More than 25 former ‘disciples’ of the Synagogue Church of All Nations spoke to the BBC - from the UK, Nigeria, US, South Africa, Ghana, Namibia and Germany - giving powerful corroborating testimony about their experiences within the church, with the most recent experiences in 2019. This investigation contains accounts of torture, rape and self-harm and readers' discretion is advised.
•The full investigation: Testimony from dozens of survivors suggests Joshua was abusing and raping young women from around the world several times a week for nearly 20 years.
•The profile: TB Joshua attracted followers from all over the world by claiming to perform miracles.
•Go deeper: You can watch a three-part documentary on the BBC Africa YouTube channel or listen to a nine-episode podcast.” [BBC]
Your smellphone
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
“The cellphone of the future may be able to detect air quality and smoke levels near the person carrying it, alerting users about dangerous findings.
A startup, Mobile Physics, developed the technology. Qualcomm and STMicroelectronics are embedding it in a forthcoming Android phone platform, Jennifer A. Kingson writes for Axios What's Next.
Why it matters: Air pollution is becoming a more urgent health issueamid changing climate.
What's happening: Mobile Physics, an Israeli firm backed by Oracle founder Larry Ellison, says it can transform any cellphone into a personal "envirometer" and weather station.
It uses a phone's existing sensors to measure air quality, smoke levels, temperature and UV exposure.” [Axios]
2024 CFP National Championship: Washington v. Michigan
“The final college football stage is set, and Michigan Wolverines will face off against the Washington Huskies in the College Football Playoff National Championship at NRG Stadium in Houston. College football's final undefeated teams will face off for the national title, proving who has the best line-up. The Wolverines are looking for their first national championship title since 1997. Washington's team has achieved 21 consecutive victories and their first-ever appearance in the College Football Playoff championship game. The Huskies are now aiming for their first national championship since 1991.” Read more at USA Today
Tonight's sky-high tickets
Data: SeatGeek. Chart: Alice Feng/Axios
“The average ticket price for tonight's College Football Playoff National Championship in Houston, between Michigan and Washington, is the highest since the 2017 season, Axios' Maxwell Millington writes fromSeatGeek data.
The average ticket costs $2,845 — $1,100 more than last year's game, between TCU and Georgia in L.A.
The "get-in" price — the cheapest ticket — for tonight's game is $1,302.” [Axios]
The biggest moments you missed at the 81st Golden Globes
“The race to March's Academy Awards kicked into a new gear Sunday with the 81st annual Golden Globe Awards in Los Angeles, which honored the best of television and cinema.
Who won the night? Christopher Nolan's atomic bomb biopic "Oppenheimer" nabbed five honors including best drama, director, lead drama actor for Cillian Murphy and supporting actor for Robert Downey Jr.
•Though "Barbie" entered the evening with nominations in nine categories, the summer hit took home just two wins at the Globes. Greta Gerwig's cultural phenomenon was upended by "Poor Things," which took home best comedy and lead comedy actress for Emma Stone.
•The Globes honored several first-time winners, including the history-making Lily Gladstone, who became the first Indigenous person to win the award for best actress in a drama for "Killers of the Flower Moon."
•Red carpet recap: "Barbie" stars Margot Robbie, America Ferrera and Issa Rae looked fresh out of Mattel boxes in bright pink, while numerous stars including Florence Pugh, Selena Gomez and Barry Keoghan made fiery statements in bold red, which appeared to be the color of the night. “ [USA Today]
Lily Gladstone as she accepts the award for best female actor in motion picture - drama for her role in "Killers of the Flower Moon."
Sonja Flemming, CBS via AP
The best (and worst) Golden Globes moments you missed
READ FULL STORY→ USA Today
“Former President Obama won his second Emmy at last night's Creative Arts Emmy Awards, for narrating his Netflix documentary series, "Working: What We Do All Day."
Obama previously won for narrating his Netflix series, "Our Great National Parks." He has two Grammys for audiobooks. Go deeper.” [Axios]
SPORTS
“N.F.L. finale: On the last weekend of the regular season, the Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers all secured spots in the playoffs.
Top teams: The No. 1 seeds belong to the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, while the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills both beat division rivals to earn the No. 2 seeds. See the bracket.
Hot seat: The Atlanta Falcons fired their head coach, Arthur Smith. All eyes are now on New England, where Bill Belichick may have coached his final game with the Patriots.
M.L.B.: The Los Angeles Dodgers continued bankrolling the offseason by signing Teoscar Hernández to a one-year deal.” [New York Times]
“Lives Lived: Klee Benally was a Navajo activist, artist and punk-rock musician who championed Native American and environmental cause. He died at 48.” [New York Times]