The Full Belmonte, 1/5/2024
Border Deal to Cut Illegal Immigration Quickly Runs Into Trouble
Senate measure, which also includes aid for Israel and Ukraine, draws opposition from top House Republicans
U.S. Border Patrol agents speak with migrants seeking asylum, near Jacumba, Calif. PHOTO: GREGORY BULL/ASSOCIATED PRESS
“WASHINGTON—Senate leaders released Sunday the long-awaited details of a sprawling bipartisan bill designed to both sharply cut down on illegal border crossings and bolster embattled allies Ukraine and Israel, but the bill drew sharp criticism from top House Republicans who said it had no chance of passing their chamber.
The deal, which took months to negotiate and is set to get an initial vote in the Senate as soon as Wednesday, would establish a new asylum process at the border to deliver fast case resolutions and swift deportations for migrants who don’t qualify. It also would set a higher bar for those claims and establish new limits on the number of immigrants claiming asylum to prevent the system from getting overwhelmed.
On the spending side, the bill will provide about $118 billion overall in funds for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan as well as for U.S. border changes and humanitarian aid in war zones. About half—around $60 billion—is related to Ukraine, with $14.1 billion for Israel security assistance and about $20 billion to implement the new border policies. It also includes $2.4 billion for operations in the Red Sea, where Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched attacks on shipping.
The 370-page measure had been expected to face an uphill fight, given the decades of partisan wrangling over the issue and the approach of the fall elections, and Republican leaders in the House blasted the legislation once it was released.
‘I’ve seen enough. This bill is even worse than we expected, and won’t come close to ending the border catastrophe,’ said Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) on social media. ‘If this bill reaches the House, it will be dead on arrival,’ he said.
President Biden said he strongly supported the 370-page measure, calling the immigration provisions the ‘toughest and fairest set of border reforms in decades.’
The release of the deal text marks a critical step in trying to pass the complex measure overhauling border law and reasserting America’s strength overseas. Curtailing illegal immigration has long been a top GOP priority, but it has increasingly become a concern of Democrats too, with border arrests surging to record levels and mayors of large cities pleading for federal help. The deal’s provisions largely reflect Republican priorities and exclude longtime Democratic demands such as a pathway to citizenship for so-called Dreamers brought to the country as children.
Biden, who is running for re-election, had thrown his support behind the emerging deal, saying he would embrace new powers to shut down the border if needed. Still, the prospects for the bill are uncertain. Even though Republicans initially insisted that a border deal be a condition for any further aid for Ukraine, former President Donald Trump, the GOP front-runner for the 2024 nomination, has blasted the prospect of any compromise.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said Sunday that Senate Republicans should be prepared to act on the bill, calling it crucial to defending American interests overseas.
The bill’s first test will come in the Democratic-run Senate this week. While most Democrats in the 51-49 chamber are expected to support the proposal, Senate Republicans have indicated that they would only provide the votes to clear the required 60-vote hurdle to proceed if more than half the Senate GOP conference—or 25 members—commit to voting “yes.” If it does pass the Senate, it heads to the House, where Johnson said Saturday he has no plans to quickly take up the bill, instead giving priority to a separate measure that includes funding for Israel but nothing else.
Proponents now have to sell the deal.
‘We will have to get the facts out there,’ said Sen. James Lankford (R., Okla.), the GOP’s main border negotiator. He said it would be a ‘bad look for us’ if the GOP now decided it didn’t want to pursue tighter border security. ‘Republicans politically have to decide if they are going to do it. And I don’t know,’ he said.
The bipartisan bill released Sunday contains a series of changes to the way the border operates and how migrants will be handled by officials. A central aim of the bill is to end the widespread use of a practice that critics of the current system call ‘catch and release.’
At the border, the bill sets up a new process under which migrants are rapidly processed, so large numbers are no longer released into the U.S. with court dates years into the future. Migrants will either be detained or released with monitoring devices, such as ankle bracelets, and given an initial screening interview within 90 days. The standard migrants must clear to pass that interview has been tightened. For example, a migrant must prove that they couldn’t first safely relocate somewhere else in their home country to be eligible for asylum.
Those who don’t pass the new, heightened screening can be immediately deported. Those who do pass should receive a final decision within another 90 days. Still, those windows are targets rather than hard deadlines, and migrants won’t be deported if the process drags on.
In addition, the bill sets up a temporary new authority modeled after Title 42, the Trump pandemic-era policy that allowed the government to turn away migrants without needing to consider their asylum claims. Under that new power, which is authorized for three years, the government can ‘shut down’ the border to asylum seekers if crossings surpass a daily average of 4,000 a day for at least seven days—roughly half the daily crossings seen in recent months. The shutdown becomes mandatory at 5,000 a day. The idea is to ensure the government’s detention capacity doesn’t get overwhelmed when illegal crossings climb too high. The border then couldn’t reopen until crossings fall to under 75% of the trigger point….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Border bill DOA
Razor wire near the Rio Grande at Shelby Park in Eagle Pass, Texas. Photo: Sergio Flores/AFP via Getty Images
“It's remarkably strict, but will quickly die:
After months of work, senators proudly unveiled a $118 billion package that pairs tougher immigration policy with aid to Ukraine and Israel. President Biden hailed it as a chance ‘to secure the border.’
But House Republicans instantly vowed to block it from a vote. One Senate conservative demanded a change in GOP leadership, Axios' Stef Kight and Andrew Solender report.
Why it matters: The House GOP is caving to former President Trump's zeal to use the border as a campaign issue, instead of taking steps to stem a growing crisis.
It's a new risk to Republicans' majority in November, if voters decide they can't govern.
Between the lines: House members in both parties have qualms about undermining the Senate deal, especially aid for Ukraine.
Some senators tell us that failing to fund Ukraine could be a historic mistake, empowering Vladimir Putin.
What's inside: The $118 billion package includes $60 billion for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel.
An additional $10 billion is earmarked for humanitarian assistance in Gaza, the West Bank, and Ukraine.
The border changes include $20 billion for transportation for deportation, shelters, 4,000+ new asylum officers, more border agents, and anti-fentanyl trafficking efforts.
‘I've seen enough. This bill is even worse than we expected,’ House Speaker Mike Johnson tweeted. ‘If this bill reaches the House, it will be dead on arrival.’
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) swore the bill ‘will NOT receive a vote in the House.’
It's not just the House. Some conservatives in the Senate also strafed it.
Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) tweeted: ‘I cannot understand how any Republican would think this was a good idea — or anything other than an unmitigated disaster. WE NEED NEW LEADERSHIP — NOW.’
What to watch: The House and Senate will move in opposite directions this week, as the House votes on a standalone $17.6 billion Israel aid package.
What we're watching: If the Senate passes the sweeping national security package and the House passes the Israel-only bill, the bills could head to a conference committee in an effort to reconcile them.” [Axios]
“The House Rules Committee meets today to consider a resolution to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas ‘for high crimes and misdemeanors.’ Articles of impeachment have already been approved by the Homeland Security Committee and the full House is scheduled to vote later this week. If either or both of the two articles passes, Mayorkas would become the first cabinet officer to be impeached in nearly 150 years.
Republicans who control the chamber blame Mayorkas, the first immigrant and first Latino to lead his department, for record-high migrant crossings at the US-Mexico border during much of Biden’s term. They accuse him of failing to enforce US immigration laws and breaching public trust. Democrats, in turn, accused the majority of weaponizing impeachment after the House twice impeached Trump as president when Democrats controlled the chamber. Many scholars say Mayorkas’ actions don’t meet the ‘high crimes and misdemeanors’ standard set out in the Constitution.
Ernesto Castañeda, director of the Center for Latin American and Latino Studies at American University, called the case ‘weak,’ pointing out that ‘Mayorkas met multiple times with the senators trying to reach a deal on immigration, which included many Republicans.’ The effort to oust Mayorkas will certainly fail in the Democratic-controlled Senate, where even some Republicans have said it would do nothing to resolve problems at the border.” [Bloomberg]
A RAF Typhoon FGR4 aircraft back at base following strikes in Yemen. (AS1 Jake Green/RAF via AP)
At least 6 Kurdish fighters are killed in a drone attack on a Syrian base housing US troops
“The U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces said Monday the attack hit a training ground at al-Omar base in Syria’s eastern province of Deir el-Zour and accused ‘Syrian regime-backed mercenaries’ of carrying out the attack. No casualties were reported among U.S. troops. Read more.
Why this matters:
The drone strike is the first significant attack in Syria or Iraq since the U.S. launched retaliatory strikes over the weekend against Iran-backed militias that have been targeting its forces in the region.
The attack late Sunday came two days after the U.S. military carried out strikes in Iraq and Syria that hit over 85 targets at seven locations in retaliation for the killing of three American soldiers at a U.S. base in Jordan. The Biden administration has so far appeared to stop short of directly targeting Iran within its borders.” [AP News]
A flooded street in Santa Barbara, California, on Sunday.
Floods
“Flash flood warnings are in place for millions of people in California as an intense atmospheric river lashes the state with heavy rain and strong winds. More than 900,000 customers have faced power outages and hundreds of flights at California airports have been canceled or delayed. The storm will bring rainfall totals of up to 8 inches in Southern California with isolated totals of up to 14 inches across the mountains and foothills, forecasts show. Los Angeles will also receive close to half a year's worth of rain by Tuesday, with officials warning it will be one of the ‘most dramatic weather days in recent memory.’ A state of emergency is in place for at least eight California counties as authorities urge residents to heed evacuation warnings.” [CNN]
Leaker of DeSantis debate memo
Campaign bus of the DeSantis super PAC, parked in Manchester, N.H. Photo: Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images
“One of the big mysteries of this GOP primary was who pointed the N.Y. Times to hundreds of pages of debate advice and other sensitive material that Never Back Down, the super PAC backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, had stashed on the web. Insiders could access it, even though the super PAC is barred by law from communicating directly with the campaign.
It turns out the dime was dropped by the super PAC supporting Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), another failed contender for the nomination.
The leaker was revealed last night by reporter Marc Caputo in his debut dispatch as a national political reporter for The Bulwark. Caputo was among the casualties of last week's abrupt shutdown of The Messenger.
A former official of the Scott-allied group, TIM PAC, confirmed the stealthy move to Axios.
Behind the scenes: Caputo had filed his juicy 6,200-word opus to The Messenger. But the site imploded before the piece could be edited and posted.
The debate-memo leak ‘caused major suspicion inside the DeSantis campaign — and between it and the super PAC,’ Caputo reports:
DeSantis's paranoia with Never Back Down staff intensified ... DeSantis was so concerned he was being spied on by Never Back Down staff that he would try to isolate himself in the back of the super PAC's bus during swings through Iowa.
‘Never Back Down's toxic implosion offers an unusually candid look at the tensions and skulduggery rife in presidential campaigns,’ Caputo writes.
‘High-dollar consultants and Type A personalities knifed each other, often using the media as the blade.’” [Axios]
“Boeing announced yesterday that about 50 of its jets need additional repairs for improperly drilled holes before they can leave the factory. An employee at Spirit AeroSystems, the company that makes the fuselage, identified the issue. Boeing and Spirit AeroSystems have a long and troubled relationship. Now, the FAA is looking into both companies to determine why a door plug blew off an Alaska Airlines Boeing Max 9 in midair last month.” [NPR]
“Are we headed for a new global conflict? References to it are proliferating – and it’s easy to see why.
The Israel-Hamas war that’s raging on with no end in sight, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, North Korea’s test barrages of new missiles on an almost weekly basis, and growing tensions in the Pacific over China’s muscle flexing and its territorial claim on Taiwan. The list goes on.
While the US insists it won’t be dragged into a deeper conflict in the Middle East, it’s vowing more strikes against groups supported by Iran after three days of retaliatory attacks in response to assaults on its bases in the region. That’s as the US and UK are targeting Houthi rebels in Yemen for disrupting shipping in the Red Sea.
President Joe Biden is under pressure to take more muscular action against Tehran after the killing of three American soldiers in Jordan by Iranian-backed militants. And his administration’s search for a diplomatic pause to the conflict in Gaza has so far failed.
Biden is facing a difficult bid for reelection in November, likely against his predecessor Donald Trump whose Republican party has rewritten its historical commitment to allies by holding up vital military aid for Ukraine in the name of partisan politics.
Should Trump win, the current US drive to deprive Beijing of the ability to produce and access the most advanced semiconductors — part of Washington’s efforts to curb its geopolitical rival — will probably accelerate.
China, Russia and the so-called Global South developing countries don’t agree on everything, but they do share a desire to end, or at least seriously overhaul, the US-led system of international rules.
It all adds to the cocktail of conflicts that are upending the post-Cold War order and threatening further global instability.
While some of the rhetoric about a world war may be overblown, there are real risks. The room for miscalculation is narrowing.” — Karl Maier [Bloomberg]
Displaced Palestinians pass an Israeli tank in southern Gaza on Jan. 30. Photographer: Mahmud Hams/Getty Images
“President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he’s considering broad leadership changes in Ukraine that go beyond the military, while acknowledging that his country’s war effort to turn back Russia’s invasion has stalled. Zelenskiy’s comments in an Italian television interview, while vague, marked his first public response to questions about the fate of Ukraine’s top army general, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, amid speculation over his imminent removal.” [Bloomberg]
“Nayib Bukele looks set to win a second presidential term in El Salvador as a partial count in yesterday’s ballot showed voters backing his draconian anti-gang policies by an overwhelming majority. The 42-year-old former publicist has used emergency powers to lock up tens of thousands of alleged gangsters over the past two years, with some human rights groups criticizing the lack of due process.” [Bloomberg]
Bukele supporters celebrate yesterday in San Salvador. Photographer: Camilo Freedman/Bloomberg
“China is pursuing a corruption probe into one of its top nuclear fuel experts, a move that comes as President Xi Jinping’s purge roils the nation’s defense establishment. US spies believe the decision was a response to the discovery of widespread graft in the military.” [Bloomberg]
“Worsening attacks in the Red Sea have quickly unwound some of the gains in removing supply-chain bottlenecks threatening to choke the recovery in global exports. Bloomberg’s Trade Tracker shows sentiment is souring amid fears the improvement in trade could be short-lived as the Houthis steadily ramp up their strikes on commercial vessels.” [Bloomberg]
“Turkey said Vladimir Putin is expected to visit soon, in what would be the Russian president’s first trip to a NATO-member country since the invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin is considering an interview with Putin by former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who is visiting Moscow.” [Bloomberg]
“German Chancellor Olaf Scholz voiced for the first time that things aren’t going to plan, with an ailing economy, a self-inflicted budget crisis and an electoral menace from the far-right.” [Bloomberg]
“Senegal’s lawmakers will examine a bill today to extend Macky Sall’s mandate until the next election after the president proposed postponing the Feb. 25 polls for six months.” [Bloomberg]
Powell's rare TV moment
Scott Pelley interviews Fed chair Jerome Powell. Photo: CBS News
“In a rare TV interview with CBS' ‘60 Minutes,’ Fed chair Jerome Powell asked Americans to be patient as the effects of high interest rates ripple through the economy. He said he expects multiple interest rate cuts this year.
Powell acknowledged that side effects of the Fed's inflation-fighting have caused difficulties for prospective homebuyers, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports.
It's important ‘particularly for younger couples starting out, who may not have great financial means, that we succeed in this effort,’ Powell told Scott Pelley.
‘We will do so. But what that means is that interest-sensitive spending like mortgages and buying, you know, durable goods and things like that, that's going to be expensive for a while.’” [Axios]
N.J. gets the cup
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
“New Jersey will host the final match of the 2026 Men's World Cup at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford.
Why it matters: The international soccer tournament is the world's most widely viewed sporting event. Matches can deliver a super-sized economic jolt to the host cities, Axios' Thomas Wheatley and Naheed Rajwani-Dharsi write.
FIFA revealed the schedule for the tournament, which will be hosted jointly by 16 cities across Mexico, the U.S., and Canada.
The first game will be in Mexico City's famed Estadio Azteca.
Dallas' AT&T Stadium will host a total of nine matches, including a semifinal, the most of any U.S. city.
Miami's Hard Rock Stadium will host one of the quarterfinals and the third-place game.” [Axios]
Good morning. We’re covering a policy change by Dartmouth College —
Sian Beilock, the president of Dartmouth. Caleb Kenna for The New York Times
‘Convinced by the data’
“Dartmouth College announced this morning that it would again require applicants to submit standardized test scores, starting next year. It’s a significant development because other selective colleges are now deciding whether to do so. In today’s newsletter, I’ll tell you the story behind Dartmouth’s decision.
Training future leaders
Last summer, Sian Beilock — a cognitive scientist who had previously run Barnard College in New York — became the president of Dartmouth. After arriving, she asked a few Dartmouth professors to do an internal study on standardized tests. Like many other colleges during the Covid pandemic, Dartmouth dropped its requirement that applicants submit an SAT or ACT score. With the pandemic over and students again able to take the tests, Dartmouth’s admissions team was thinking about reinstating the requirement. Beilock wanted to know what the evidence showed.
‘Our business is looking at data and research and understanding the implications it has,’ she told me.
Three Dartmouth economists and a sociologist then dug into the numbers. One of their main findings did not surprise them: Test scores were a better predictor than high school grades — or student essays and teacher recommendations — of how well students would fare at Dartmouth. The evidence of this relationship is large and growing, as I explained in a recent Times article.
A second finding was more surprising. During the pandemic, Dartmouth switched to a test-optional policy, in which applicants could choose whether to submit their SAT and ACT scores. And this policy was harming lower-income applicants in a specific way.
The researchers were able to analyze the test scores even of students who had not submitted them to Dartmouth. (Colleges can see the scores after the admissions process is finished.) Many lower-income students, it turned out, had made a strategic mistake.
Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H. Caleb Kenna for The New York Times
They withheld test scores that would have helped them get into Dartmouth. They wrongly believed that their scores were too low, when in truth the admissions office would have judged the scores to be a sign that students had overcome a difficult environment and could thrive at Dartmouth.
As the four professors — Elizabeth Cascio, Bruce Sacerdote, Doug Staiger and Michele Tine — wrote in a memo, referring to the SAT’s 1,600-point scale, ‘There are hundreds of less-advantaged applicants with scores in the 1,400 range who should be submitting scores to identify themselves to admissions, but do not under test-optional policies.’ Some of these applicants were rejected because the admissions office could not be confident about their academic qualifications. The students would have probably been accepted had they submitted their test scores, Lee Coffin, Dartmouth’s dean of admissions, told me.
That finding, as much as any other, led to Dartmouth’s announcement this morning. ‘Our goal at Dartmouth is academic excellence in the service of training the broadest swath of future leaders,’ Beilock told me. ‘I’m convinced by the data that this will help us do that.’
It’s worth acknowledging a crucial part of this story. Dartmouth admits disadvantaged students who have scores that are lower on average than those of privileged students. The college doesn’t apologize for that. Students from poor neighborhoods or troubled high schools have effectively been running with wind in their face. They are not competing fairly with affluent teenagers.
Source: Cascio, Sacerdote, Staiger, Tine (Dartmouth) | Disadvantaged students are low-income, first-generation college or enrolled at a challenged high school. | By The New York Times
‘We’re looking for the kids who are excelling in their environment. We know society is unequal,’ Beilock said. ‘Kids that are excelling in their environment, we think, are a good bet to excel at Dartmouth and out in the world.’ The admissions office will judge an applicant’s environment partly by comparing his or her test score with the score distribution at the applicant’s high schools, Coffin said. In some cases, even an SAT score well below 1,400 can help an application.
Questions and answers
In our conversations, I asked Beilock and her colleagues about several common criticisms of standardized tests, and they said that they did not find the criticisms persuasive.
For instance, many critics on the political left argue the tests are racially or economically biased, but Beilock said the evidence didn’t support those claims. ‘The research suggests this tool is helpful in finding students we might otherwise miss,’ she said.
I also asked whether she was worried that conservative critics of affirmative action might use test scores to accuse Dartmouth of violating the recent Supreme Court ruling barring race-conscious admissions. She was not. Dartmouth can legally admit a diverse class while using test scores as one part of its holistic admissions process, she said. I’ve heard similar sentiments from leaders at other colleges that have reinstated the test requirement, including Georgetown and M.I.T.
And I asked Beilock and her colleagues whether fewer students might now apply to Dartmouth. Coffin, the admissions dean, replied that such an outcome might be OK. He noted that the test-optional policy since 2020 had not led to a more diverse pool of applicants and that Dartmouth already received more than enough applications — 31,000 this year, for 1,200 first-year slots. ‘I don’t think volume is the holy grail,’ he said.
Finally, I asked Beilock whether she was satisfied with Dartmouth’s level of economic diversity, which is slightly below that of most similarly elite colleges. She said no. ‘We have aspirations to bring it up,’ she said. Reinstating the test requirement, she believes, can help Dartmouth do so.” [New York Times]
Invasive ants are changing the way lions hunt and eat in Kenya.
“How? Big-headed ants, probably brought to Kenya in the early 2000s by global shipping and tourism, kill the native ants that protect trees from elephants and other herbivores.
One impact: Elephants can eat more trees, giving lions less cover for hunting their main prey, zebras. Lions have killed fewer zebras since the ants’ arrival, a new study found.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Scientists are starting to worry about the moon shrinking.
“Why? The moon has been shriveling like a raisin for hundreds of millions of years. That is leading to shallow moonquakes, a new study found.
Why it’s a problem: Some seismic activity is near the lunar south pole, where NASA wants to send humans, possibly in 2027. And the quakes could damage future moon bases.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Taylor's surprise
Taylor Swift accepts the Grammy for Best Pop Vocal Album last night. Photo: Valerie Macon/AFP via Getty Images
“Taylor Swift broke the internet by teasing a new release as she accepted a Grammy last night.
The new album, Swift's 11th — not counting her ongoing project of re-recording her previous work — is titled ‘The Tortured Poets Department’ and will be out April 19.
Swift also made history: ‘Midnights’ won Best Pop Vocal Album and Album of the Year, making her the first artist to take home the top album award four times.
Photo: Richard Shotwell/Invision via AP
Earlier in the night, Atlanta rapper Killer Mike was escorted from the arena in handcuffs and detained after he won three Grammys.
Police spokesperson Officer Mike Lopez said the arrest stemmed from an altercation inside the arena around 4 p.m., AP reports.
The rapper, whose real name is Michael Render, was booked on a misdemeanor, then released on his own recognizance. He's scheduled to appear in court in L.A. on Feb. 29.
Mike won Best Rap Album for "Michael." He also was awarded Best Rap Song and Best Rap Performance.” [Axios]