The Full Belmonte, 1/3/2023
Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest during a game and more news to start Tuesday.
Buffalo Bills' Damar Hamlin suffers cardiac arrest, in critical condition
“Hamlin is in critical condition at a hospital after collapsing on the field during a game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night. After making a tackle on Bengals receiver Tee Higgins, Hamlin stood up but collapsed to the ground. An ambulance was brought onto the field and ESPN reporter Lisa Salters said medical responders were ‘working on him’ for more than nine minutes. The Bills announced early Tuesday that he suffered a cardiac arrest. His heartbeat was restored on the field before he was transferred to the University of Cincinnati Medical Center for further testing and treatment. The team also said that Hamlin is currently sedated and listed in critical condition. Monday's game was postponed by the NFL.” Read more at USA Today
Buffalo Bills players react as teammate Damar Hamlin is examined after making a tackle against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Jeff Dean, AP
Ukraine Strikes Russian Forces in Donbas in Deadliest Attack in Months
The attack in Russian-held territory came as Ukraine repelled another drone swarm on Kyiv
A building in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, on Sunday after a Russian attack.PHOTO: GENYA SAVILOV/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
By Isabel Coles and Evan Gershkovich
“KYIV, Ukraine—A Ukrainian strike killed dozens of newly mobilized soldiers in Russian-held eastern territory, marking the deadliest known assault in months and pressuring Moscow’s military leadership, while Kyiv said it shot down at least 39 drones during another wave of attacks on the capital.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said Monday that Ukrainian forces used a U.S.-supplied Himars rocket system to destroy a facility used as a base for mobilized troops in the city of Makiivka, in the Donbas area of eastern Ukraine. In a statement carried by Russian state news agencies, the ministry said 63 troops had died in the blast after four Himars rockets carrying high-explosive warheads struck the facility.
Anastasia Kashevarova, a Russian official, said the troops housed at the compound were mobilized from Russia’s Saratov and Samara regions.
Rybar, a Telegram news channel with links to the Russian military, said that about 70 people had been confirmed dead and more than 100 wounded as debris continued to be cleared at the site. Russian President Vladimir Putin last month included Rybar’s founder, Mikhail Zvinchuk, in a new Kremlin-run working group producing a monthly report on the progress of Russia’s troop mobilization….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Inside McCarthy's cliffhanger
Workers move furniture into the speaker's suite at the Capitol yesterday. Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images
“It's personal for many of the GOP renegades vowing to block the election of House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy as speaker when the new Congress opens at noon today.
McCarthy has given the hardliners nearly everything they asked for. But with conservatives insisting they don't trust him, he still hasn't flipped enough votes, Axios' Alayna Treene reports.
Why it matters: It's likely that, for the first time in 100 years, the House will hold multiple ballots for speaker.
What we're hearing: Even McCarthy isn't sure of the outcome.
He expects multiple ballots today. And he's telling members he'll take the fight to as many ballots as necessary to win the speakership, multiple sources familiar with the conversation tell Axios.
So this could become a war of attrition: A good number of pro-McCarthy House Republicans are hoping some of the holdouts are bluffing and looking for a show — and will ultimately get worn down enough during the process to cave for McCarthy.
State of play: The strongest potential second choice for speaker is Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the second-ranking House GOP leader after McCarthy.
Scalise has made it clear he won't run against McCarthy — McCarthy would have to drop out.
Scalise and his team have been quietly preparing for this scenario, but are being incredibly careful not to be seen as working against McCarthy.
At 8:06 p.m. ET on the eve of the vote, one of the holdouts, Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona, tweeted:
‘Even after the McCarthy Machine's attempts to whip votes, ... [o]ur party still requires new leadership and I will continue to oppose McCarthy for House Speaker.’
The bottom line: McCarthy forces tell us that they're still not sure how they'll get there. But they're hanging their hats on their belief that there's no realistic alternative.” [Axios]
House Republicans Plan to Make Changes to Ethics Office
GOP-controlled chamber set to vote on new rules package as members return to work
Republicans who now hold the majority in Congress will push to change the rules of the ethics office charged with investigating lawmakers.PHOTO: MATT ROURKE/ASSOCIATED PRESS
“WASHINGTON—House Republicans plan to change the rules of the ethics office charged with investigating lawmakers when the new session of Congress begins on Tuesday.
The House-rules package that incoming GOP leadership negotiated with members would impose changes on the Office of Congressional Ethics, or OCE, regarding its board and hiring new staff, potentially limiting the office’s ability to investigate lawmakers. The new rules would also allow the House Ethics Committee to take complaints directly from the public.
Representatives for both the Republican and Democratic leaders on the Ethics Committee didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the rules changes.
The OCE is a nonpartisan, independent body charged with reviewing allegations of misconduct against House lawmakers and staff. After it looks into complaints, it then dismisses them or refers them to the House Ethics Committee. While lawmakers from both parties have at times complained that the OCE has too much power, advocates see the office as integral for reviews of complaints about misconduct and criticized the proposed changes.
‘These are measures that will render the ethics office ineffectual and which no member, from either party, should support,’ said Craig Holman, government affairs lobbyist with Public Citizen, a nonprofit consumer advocacy organization.
The rules package released by House Republicans and set for a full House vote on Tuesday would place term limits on the eight-person OCE board, an action that would remove three of four Democratic board members. The new rules would also limit OCE from hiring any staff after 30 calendar days from when the rules package is approved, meaning the office couldn’t hire new people after a month from Tuesday. Any new hires after the rules are passed would require approval of four board members.
The proposed changes come as Republican lawmakers have faced scrutiny over any involvement in the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol, and incoming Rep. George Santos (R., N.Y.) faces questions about his background, after he admitted fabricating parts of his personal and work history. Last month, the House Ethics Committee disclosed it is investigating a complaint regarding Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.), referred by OCE, though it provided no details about the case.
The House Ethics Committee, which is composed of members of Congress, is traditionally slow and hesitant to punish fellow lawmakers. When OCE refers a complaint to the House for further investigation, the investigation can become public, shining a light on allegations and misdeeds.
The OCE was established in 2008 to address corruption in Congress. It reviews allegations and outside ethics complaints in what is intended to be a timely manner, and has since referred 52 Democrats and 50 Republicans to the House Ethics Committee for further review.
For ethics advocates, the move is a flashback to when House Republicans last attempted to curb OCE in January 2017, at the beginning of that new session of Congress. After fierce backlash, including from then-incoming President Donald Trump, they scrapped a plan to place the independent Office of Congressional Ethics under the oversight of the House Ethics Committee.” [Wall Street Journal ]
California faces another 'atmospheric river'
“Following a historic storm in California, residents are bracing for an onslaught of more bad weather that could bring up to 8 inches of rain in some areas and trigger additional flooding and mudslides. The state faces another ‘atmospheric river’ this week, and the Midwest and South also can expect damaging weather, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. Parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi were under a tornado watch until 3 a.m. Central time, the National Weather Service said. The newest storm was forecast to sweep across Northern California before dipping into Southern California on Tuesday. That will be followed by an even more potent storm poised to slam Northern California late Tuesday and Wednesday.” Read more at USA Today
Three vehicles are submerged on Dillard Road west of Highway 99 in south Sacramento County in Wilton, Calif., Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023, after heavy rains on New Year's Eve produced levee breaks. Saturday's system was warmer and wetter, while storms this week will be colder, said Hannah Chandler-Cooley, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Sacramento. Hector Amezcua, The Sacramento Bee via AP
Winter storm
“A major multi-hazard storm barreling across the US is bringing the risk of strong tornadoes and flooding to the South, and ice and snow to the Plains and Upper Midwest today. This comes just days after the storm system walloped California with dangerous flooding, forcing water rescues and evacuations. More than 12 million people across the South are currently under flood watches this morning, with the heaviest rainfall expected in parts of southwest Alabama and southeast Georgia. Meanwhile, more than 15 million people are under winter weather alerts from Utah to Wisconsin. Officials are urging people in the Plains to avoid unnecessary travel and to pack emergency kits in their vehicles to stay prepared.” [CNN]
2023 raise
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
“Many Americans will enjoy higher paychecks in 2023 thanks to changes the IRS made for inflation, Axios' Kelly Tyko reports.
Why it matters: Cost of living adjustments are now crucial in the era of high inflation, Axios' Emily Peck explains.
For single taxpayers, the standard deduction will be up $900 to $13,850.
For married filers, it's up $1,800 to 27,700.
For retirement savings, the cap is raised $2,000 on 401(k), 403(b) and most 457 plans.
Workers can put another $200 in health flexible spending arrangements, with the cap going to $3,050.” [Axios]
Data: IRS; Table: Axios Visuals
Trying to Trademark ‘Rigged Election,’ and Other Revelations From the Jan. 6 Transcripts
The Jan. 6 committee released a whirlwind of documents in its final days and wrapped up its work on Monday.
By Luke Broadwater, Maggie Haberman, Alan Feuer and Emily Cochrane
Jan. 2, 2023
“WASHINGTON — The nation’s top military officer saw the Jan. 6 attack as similar to the ‘Reichstag moment’ that led to Nazi dictatorship. Aides for former President Donald J. Trump saw their future job opportunities slipping away, and predicted being ‘perpetually unemployed.’ Mr. Trump himself saw the push to overturn the 2020 election as a financial opportunity, moving to trademark the phrase ‘Rigged Election.’
These were among the latest revelations from the House Jan. 6 committee, which released a whirlwind of documents in its final days and wrapped up its work on Monday. Since Friday night, the panel has released several troves of evidence, including about 120 previously unseen transcripts along with emails and text messages obtained during its 18-month inquiry, totaling tens of thousands of pages.
The evidence touched on nearly every aspect of Mr. Trump’s push to overturn the 2020 election. It provided new details about how some of his top allies lobbied for aggressive plans to keep him in power, while others lamented how the dark day of Jan. 6, 2021, had negatively affected their employment prospects.
The panel said it has now turned over an ‘enormous volume of material’ to the Justice Department as Jack Smith, the special counsel, conducts a parallel investigation into the events of Jan. 6.
“Accountability is now critical to thwart any other future scheme to overturn an election,” the committee’s leaders, Representative Bennie Thompson, Democrat of Mississippi, and Representative Liz Cheney, Republican of Wyoming, said in a statement.
In the end, the committee released about 280 transcripts of interviews. Though the panel interviewed more than 1,000 witnesses, only a few hundred sessions took the form of formal depositions or transcribed interviews. Lawmakers said they withheld certain transcripts that contained sensitive information.
Here are some takeaways from the recently released evidence:
A senior military adviser said Mr. Trump seemed to acknowledge his defeat.
In a 302-page transcript of his interview with the committee, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the voluble chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the panel about a meeting in the Oval Office a few weeks after Election Day, in which he said Mr. Trump seemed to acknowledge he was not going to be sworn in again.
General Milley described Mr. Trump saying ‘words to the effect of: Yeah, we lost, we need to let that issue go to the next guy. Meaning President Biden.’
That statement built on other evidence the committee spent significant time documenting: That Mr. Trump was aware he had lost but continued to falsely claim otherwise. At one point General Milley suggested it might have been another adviser who said it, but stated when asked again that it was Mr. Trump.
General Milley also recalled seeing the Nazi imagery in the crowd on Jan. 6 and saying to his staff: ‘These guys look like the brown shirts to me. This looks like a Reichstag moment.’
Aides saw their futures damaged.
Some of the most striking exchanges in the committee’s text messages were between Mr. Trump’s longtime adviser Hope Hicks and Julie Radford, the chief of staff to Mr. Trump’s oldest daughter, Ivanka.
In them, both women lamented that Mr. Trump had caused irreparable harm to his own staff as the violence played out.
‘In one day he ended every future opportunity that doesn’t include speaking engagements at the local Proud Boys chapter,’ Ms. Hicks fumed in a message. ‘All of us that didn’t have jobs lined up will be perpetually unemployed.’
More evidence emerged that Trump planned to join the crowd at the Capitol.
Several Trump advisers made clear that Mr. Trump had intended for days to join a crowd of his supporters marching on the Capitol.
‘POTUS expectations are to have something intimate at the ellipse, and call on everyone to march to the capitol,’ Katrina Pierson, a Trump spokeswoman, wrote in a Jan. 2, 2021, email.
Kayleigh McEnany, Mr. Trump’s press secretary, also wrote in a note on Jan. 6 that Mr. Trump had wanted to walk alongside the crowd as it descended on the Congress: ‘POTUS wanted to walk to capital. Physically walk. He said fine ride beast.’
Bannon continued to agitate.
Stephen K. Bannon, an outside adviser to Mr. Trump, continued to endorse extreme tactics even after the violence of Jan. 6.
On Jan. 8, 2021, he wrote in a text message to his spokeswoman, Alexandra Preate, that he wanted one million people to surround the Capitol after Mr. Biden was seated in the White House.
‘I’d surround the Capitol in total silence,’ Mr. Bannon wrote, according to a transcript of Ms. Preate’s interview.
Mr. Bannon also advised that Mr. Trump should have nothing to do with Patrick Byrne, the wealthy businessman who financed efforts to overturn the 2020 election. ‘Steve Bannon once told me, he said, Patrick Byrne’s crazy, and he should not be on the stage with Donald Trump,’ Ms. Preate testified.
Trump lawyers investigated fraud claims and couldn’t prove them.
Joshua Findlay, a Trump campaign lawyer, told the panel he was tasked with looking into fraud allegations in Georgia, but came up empty.
‘The big complaints that you would hear about, you know, massive vote flips and things like that, we just didn’t ever — at least in Georgia — we did not ever find any evidence of that,’ he testified.
Nevertheless, Rudolph W. Giuliani, Mr. Trump’s personal lawyer, joined forces with another lawyer named Kenneth Chesebro, who devised ways to challenge the 2020 election through the use of alternative slates of electors.
Mr. Findlay said Mr. Chesebro and Mr. Giuliani teamed up ‘promoting these theories and being aggressive, you know, aggressively promoting them,’ Mr. Findlay recalled.
‘Rudy Giuliani was making a lot of the decisions about litigation strategy,’ he testified. ‘He really bought into Ken’s theory on this.’
Kash Patel was a recurring figure.
Mr. Smith, the special counsel, is also investigating Mr. Trump’s handling of sensitive documents.
A figure in both the documents investigations and the committee’s inquiry was Kash Patel, currently one of Mr. Trump’s representatives to the National Archives. Several witnesses testified about a push to install Mr. Patel, a Trump loyalist, in a high-ranking C.I.A. post, something that the agency’s director, Gina Haspel, along with Vice President Mike Pence and the White House counsel, Pat A. Cipollone, moved to stop. But not everyone found Mr. Patel objectionable.
Robert C. O’Brien, Mr. Trump’s final national security adviser, called Mr. Patel a ‘good guy’ in his testimony.
General Milley took a different view, describing the elevation of Mr. Patel as concerning.
He recalled confronting Mr. Patel and Mark Meadows, the White House chief of staff, while in a V.I.P. box at the Army-Navy game.
‘To Kash Patel, I said: ‘So, Kash, which one are you going to get, C.I.A. or F.B.I.?’ And Patel’s face, you know, he looks down and he comes back and says: ‘Chairman, Chairman.’ And I looked at White House Chief of Staff Meadows and said: ‘What are you guys trying to do?’
Trump wanted to trademark ‘Rigged Election.’
During the tumultuous post-election period, Mr. Trump and his team worked intensely at raising money — bringing in hundreds of millions — while trying to register trademarks about fighting election results, the transcripts show.
In one recent transcript, the committee revealed an email from Dan Scavino Jr., a deputy White House chief of staff, to Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and adviser, titled ‘POTUS requests.’
‘Hey Jared! POTUS wants to trademark/own rights to below, I don’t know who to see — or ask…I don’t know who to take to,’ the email states, before providing two bolded terms: ‘Save America PAC!’ with an exclamation mark and ‘Rigged Election!’
‘Guys — can we do ASAP please?’ Mr. Kushner then wrote, forwarding the request.
‘I don’t recall.’
The transcripts also, once again, show the difficulties for investigators.
Mr. Chesebro repeatedly invoked his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination, while Molly Michael, an assistant to Mr. Trump, told the committee more than 100 times that she couldn’t recall events from Jan. 6.
The committee ran into a similar problem with Anthony Ornato, a former deputy chief of staff at the White House who had also been the special agent in charge of Mr. Trump’s Secret Service detail. He said he did not remember significant moments that multiple witnesses recounted to the panel. ‘I don’t recall any conversation taking place about the possible movement of the president to the Capitol,’ Mr. Ornato testified.
The committee published excerpts from text messages between Mr. Ornato and a White House aide, Cassidy Hutchinson — whose statements have at times been in conflict — that appeared to support her memory of some events on Jan. 6 that she has spoken of. In the messages, she relayed that Mr. Trump was talking, as he had previously, about going to the Capitol himself, with Mr. Ornato replying to her comment.
Trump was directly involved in the false elector scheme.
Mr. Trump personally involved himself in the false elector scheme, according to Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee. Ms. McDaniel recounted a call after the election in which Mr. Trump introduced her to John Eastman, the lawyer who wrote a now-infamous memo that laid out a path for the former president to remain in power.
Mr. Eastman, she said, then spoke about how he believed it was important for the committee to help the Trump campaign ‘gather these contingent electors,’ she said.” [New York Times]
McConnell = Senate's longest-serving leader
Left: Sen. Mike Mansfield holds a press conference in 1975. Right: Sen. Mitch McConnell in the Capitol’s Mike Mansfield Room in 2020. Photos: Bob Burchette/The Washington Post, Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
“Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell plans to mark his new status as the Senate's longest-serving party leader with a speech this afternoon paying tribute to the previous record-holder — former Sen. Mike Mansfield, a Democrat from Montana.
Why it matters: McConnell has stayed in charge of the Senate GOP at a time of intense turmoil in the party, with powerful populist currents threatening traditional power structures, Axios' Hans Nichols reports.
The senior senator from Kentucky, 80, today will eclipse the 16 years that Mansfield spent as party leader.
Along the way, McConnell has delighted supporters and bedeviled opponents through crafty procedural maneuvers and — to some critics — brazen power grabs.
Sen. Mitch McConnell gave out bottles of Old Crow bourbon, sporting his picture, last year at a Senate GOP lunch ahead of the Kentucky Derby. Photo: Tom Brenner/Getty Images
With a wry wink, McConnell will align himself with senators who stayed out of the spotlight — leaders ‘who preferred to focus on serving their colleagues rather than dominating them.’
‘And that ... is how Senator Michael Joseph Mansfield of Montana became the longest-serving Senate leader in American history — until this morning.’” [Axios]
Steve Helber/AP
“Only 35% of Americans over 65 have gotten the latest COVID booster shot, though 75% of COVID deaths are among people in this age group.Only 15% of people eligible for the shot have gotten it, but it's not too late.” [NPR]
Legal Use of Hallucinogenic Mushrooms Begins in Oregon
On Jan. 1, Oregon became the first state to allow adult use of psilocybin “magic” mushrooms. Licensed guides will likely determine whether the program is a success.
“PORTLAND, Ore. — The curriculum was set, the students were enrolled and Oregon officials had signed off on nearly every detail of training for the first class of ‘magic’ mushroom facilitators seeking state certification.
But as the four-day session got underway inside a hotel conference room in early December, an important pedagogical tool was missing: the mushrooms themselves.
That’s because state officials, two years after Oregon voters narrowly approved the adult use of psilocybin, were still hammering out the regulatory framework for the production and sale of the tawny hallucinogenic fungi.
Instead, the students, most of them seasoned mental health professionals, would have to role play with one another using meditation or intensive breathing practices that could lead to altered states of consciousness — the next best thing to the kind of psychedelic trip they would encounter as licensed guides….” Read more at New York Times
Remote Florida Archipelago Closes After Hundreds of Migrants Arrive
Dry Tortugas National Park will close for “several days” so that authorities and medical workers can evaluate, care for and transport some 300 migrants, park officials said.
Jan. 2, 2023
“A remote archipelago and national park off the coast of Key West, Fla., was closed Monday after a group of around 300 migrants arrived by boat on the islands’ shores, park officials said.
The cluster of mostly uninhabited islands, known as the Dry Tortugas National Park, is about 100 miles north of Havana and is known for its crystalline waters and coral reefs. But over the past few days, the islands have become a different kind of refuge.
In addition to the 300 migrants who arrived on the archipelago, more than 160 other migrants have arrived in other parts of the Florida Keys over the past several days, according to the local and federal authorities. The officials did not specify countries of origin but said in a statement that the park and region had recently ‘seen an increase in people arriving by boat from Cuba.’…” Read more at New York Times
Times Square attack
“The 19-year-old suspect accused of attacking New York police officers with a machete near Times Square on New Year's Eve has been arrested and faces attempted murder charges. Following the attack, a diary was found in the suspect's backpack with a chilling message: ‘This will likely be my last entry,’ and goes on to leave instructions for his burial. The diary expressed the suspect's desire to join the Taliban and criticized his brother for joining the US military, sources said. According to the FBI, the suspect was on a terrorist watch list. Members of his family also became increasingly concerned about his desire to travel to Afghanistan to join the Taliban and reported this to police in December. However, he traveled to New York ahead of New Year's Eve via Amtrak, so those travels did not trip any watch list databases.” [CNN]
January 3, 2023
By German Lopez
Good morning. Last year’s democratic wins could have big implications for 2023.
Nancy Pelosi handed Volodymyr Zelensky a flag after his speech to Congress last month.Kenny Holston/The New York Times
An optimistic trend
“Imagine if the U.S. and its allies had reacted less aggressively to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Without Western weapons to bolster its defenses, Ukraine could have fallen. Without Western sanctions, Russia might have felt little economic pressure. Such inaction would have sent a message: Western powers won’t stand up for other democracies.
At one point, that scenario seemed plausible. After all, it’s what happened when Russia illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and after Russia invaded Georgia in 2008.
Why am I writing about this now? Because the West’s enduring rally around Ukraine exemplifies an important trend from 2022 that could influence future global events: ‘This was the year liberal democracy fought back,’ as Janan Ganesh wrote in The Financial Times.
For years, democracies have become less representative. Some have fallen into authoritarian rule. Freedom House, which tracks the health of the world’s democracies, has called the decline a ‘long democratic recession.’ But in 2022, small-d democrats fought back not just in Ukraine but also in Brazil, the U.S. and even authoritarian countries like Iran and China.
It’s far too early to declare 2022 a turning point. Yet democracy experts, who are often a pessimistic group, are feeling more optimistic. ‘I tend to be the skunk at the garden party,’ said Michael Abramowitz, president of Freedom House. ‘But I do think the story of the last year has been, if hopeful isn’t the right word, at least more mixed.’
Today’s newsletter will look at how 2022 gave democracy a boost and the potential ramifications for the world.
Fighting back
In several countries, people stood up against antidemocratic forces that had grown for years.
In Brazil, former President Jair Bolsonaro, elected in 2018, initially suggested that he would reject the results if he lost re-election. But after he was defeated, Bolsonaro accepted a peaceful transition to the presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was sworn in on Sunday. Bolsonaro also criticized what he called an attempted ‘terrorist act’ after police stopped one of his supporters from setting off a bomb in Brasília.
In Iran, protests have continued for months against the country’s authoritarian government after a 22-year-old woman died in the custody of the morality police. They are the longest-running anti-government protests since the Islamic revolution of 1979, according to the BBC.
In China, resentment over the country’s strict zero-Covid policies spilled over into unusually widespread protests that at times questioned the legitimacy of Xi Jinping’s rule. The Chinese government responded with a crackdown but also eased the Covid policies, partially giving in to the public’s demands.
The demonstrations also revealed something bigger: Chinese propaganda has long argued that the country’s one-party model is more effective and efficient than the competitive systems of Western democracies. But China’s handling of Covid and the resulting economic downturn and public outcry show how the government blunders and causes big crises.
The U.S. avoided some potential threats to democracy, too. Election deniers who lost midterm races accepted the results. Donald Trump, who continues to falsely question the outcome of the 2020 election, also saw his political prospects damaged after many of his endorsed candidates lost in the midterms.
Looking ahead
One good year does not mean that the global democratic recession is over, experts cautioned.
With support for Ukraine, ‘we are now seeing a fatigue,’ said Jennifer McCoy, a political scientist at Georgia State University. Westerners could pull back support if it means dealing with higher energy prices for much longer, she added. ‘It is a question: How long will populations continue to sacrifice for this cause?’
There are still other points of concern. India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has overseen a deterioration in civil liberties, and the country’s independent news media has slowly collapsed. Indonesia passed a law last month restricting free speech. Israel’s new government could threaten judicial independence. In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban won re-election after manipulating the rules in his favor. Coup attempts in Peru and Guinea-Bissau also exposed the fragility of democratic rule.
But given the past few years of bad news, even a mixed year can be a welcome reprieve. ‘It was a much better year than it could have been — but from a very low bar,’ said Rachel Kleinfeld, a senior fellow at Carnegie’s Democracy, Conflict and Governance Program.
It’s hard to say where any of this will go. But 2022 showed that democrats can fight back.
Related: A slice of the U.S. electorate broke with its own voting history to reject extremist Republican candidates — at least partly out of concern for the political system.” [New York Times]
IMF Head Says One-Third of Global Economy Headed for Recession
“International Monetary Fund head Kristiana Georgieva warned one-third of the global economy will be in recession this year.
Speaking on the CBS show Face the Nation, Georgieva said this year will be ‘tougher’ than last, and that the United States, European Union, and China will see economic slowdown. Her comments follow the IMF’s decision last October to cut its global economic growth projection for 2023, a response to, among other things, Russia’s war in Ukraine and higher interest rates around the world.
Georgieva also offered that, even in countries that are not in a recession, ‘it would feel like recession for hundreds of millions of people.’
Georgieva’s gloomy forecast paid particular attention to China. ‘For the next couple of months, it would be tough for China, and the impact on Chinese growth would be negative, the impact on the region will be negative, the impact on global growth will be negative,’ she said.
China recently reversed on some of its policies toward COVID-19, effectively ending its zero-COVID approach, and began reopening its economy. But COVID-19 cases are spreading. Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for unity as the country enters a ‘new phase.’
China, Georgieva said, will likely grow at or below global growth for the first time in 40 years. What she described as a ‘bushfire’ of COVID-19 infections should be expected to hurt the country’s economy—and also impact regional and global growth.
Georgieva called the U.S. economy ‘the most resilient’ and said that the United States ‘may avoid recession.’ But she also called a strong labor market a ‘mixed blessing,’ as it may lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates tight so as to combat high inflation, which could have negative economic consequences of its own.” [Foreign Policy]
“Five civilians were killed in Kashmir. Two children were killed and several people were wounded in an explosion in Indian-controlled Kashmir, according to police. This came a day after assailants ‘sprayed bullets’ at homes, killing four people. The victims of these attacks were reportedly all Hindus. It remains to be seen what this means more broadly for tensions in Kashmir. The region as a whole is disputed, claimed by both India and Pakistan.
Until a few years ago, India granted Indian-controlled Kashmir ‘special status,’ which allowed the state to have a certain degree of autonomy. In August 2019, that special status was revoked, which was understood as an attempt to integrate Kashmir more fully into India, and was seen by many as an attempt to curtail individual rights in the predominantly Muslim region in the name of cracking down on militancy.” [Foreign Policy]
“Dozens escape from a jail in Mexico. Gunmen thought to be part of a drug cartel opened fire on the Chihuahua state prison in northern Mexico. Dozens of inmates—24, according to police—escaped from the facility. Ten people, including four prisoners, were killed. This was the same prison where a riot inside the facility ended up killing 11 people. Mexico’s armed forces have been called in to assist local authorities.” [Foreign Policy]
A historic warm spell is breaking records in Europe.
“What to know: At least seven countries, including Denmark and the Netherlands, had their warmest January weather on record on New Year’s Day, with highs in the 50s or 60s.
Why this matters: It’s unprecedented, according to meteorologists, and is yet another example of how climate change is making extraordinary weather events more common.” Read more at Washington Post
CES bounces back
2021 was online only. Data: Consumer Technology Association. Chart: Axios Visuals
“After two years of pandemic-driven setbacks, the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is aiming for a comeback when it hits Vegas later this week.
CES hopes to draw at least 100,000 in-person attendees. But it's unclear when, if ever, the mega-conference will return to its pre-pandemic peak of 180,000+, Axios' Sara Fischer and Ina Fried report.
CES went online-only in January 2021, just as vaccines were being rolled out in the U.S. It returned in person last year, but saw only a quarter of its pre-pandemic attendees as the Omicron variant spread.
The vast majority of attendees typically come from the U.S., followed by China, which is enduring a COVID spike after lifting lockdowns.
The Consumer Technology Association, the trade group that stages CES, said roughly one-third of attendees will come from abroad.
The big picture: As one of the largest trade shows in the world, CES sets the scene for dealmaking across tech, media, manufacturing and gaming industries each January.
More than 2,500 exhibitors from 166 countries are expected to debut new gadgets and products.
As part of the show's effort to broaden its content, keynote speakers include the CEOs of John Deere, Delta and Stellantis — as well as top executives from Netflix, Riot Games and UnitedHealthCare.
What to watch: New devices — including better webcams — will reflect a world in which more work is being done remotely.” [Axios]
After Boycott from Law Schools, U.S. News & World Report Changes Ranking System
The magazine, which has been rating top schools for decades, said in a letter to deans that it is altering its methods to address their concerns.
By Ruth Graham
Jan. 2, 2023
“Under pressure amid a boycott by top law schools, U.S. News & World Report told law school deans on Monday that it will make several changes in the next edition of its influential ratings.
In a letter to American law school deans published on its site, U.S. News said its next list would give more credit to schools whose graduates go on to pursue advanced degrees, or school-funded fellowships to work in public-service jobs that pay lower wages. The magazine, which has been publishing the ratings for decades, is responding to criticism that its rankings overvalue high-paying private-sector jobs.
The 2023-24 rankings, scheduled to be published this spring, will also rely less on surveys of schools’ reputations submitted by academics, lawyers and judges, the magazine said.
A spokeswoman for U.S. News said the list will no longer consider indicators of student debt, or the schools’ spending per student. Critics have said the magazine’s previous metric for measuring student debt encouraged schools to favor wealthy students over those with financial need, and that its use of spending per student figures favors wealthier institutions….
U.S. News will continue to rank schools that have declined to participate, using publicly available data. But it will publish more detailed profiles of schools that respond, a possible incentive for lower-ranked institutions eager to attract the attention of students.
The U.S. News list, published annually since 1987, is as influential as it is sclerotic. Roughly the same 14 law schools have held the top slots for 30 years, alternating only slightly and prompting headlines when they do. Its criteria for the rankings are watched almost as closely.
In recent months, however, a majority of those top 14 schools have announced that they will no longer participate. Among those dropping out are Yale, which has topped the list for decades, and Harvard, Stanford, Northwestern, Georgetown, Columbia and Berkeley.
Yale Law’s dean, Heather K. Gerken, said in a statement Monday, ‘Having a window into the operations and decision-making process at U.S. News in recent weeks has only cemented our decision to stop participating in the rankings.’” [New York Times]
Don Jr. signs 7-figure podcast deal
Screenshot: Don Jr.'s Rumble channel
“Donald Trump Jr. has inked a multiyear podcast deal with Rumble, the user-generated video platform that's a growing conservative alternative to YouTube, Axios' Sara Fischer has learned.
Why it matters: The deal brings momentum to Rumble following its debut as a public company last year.
Rumble will exclusively host a new Trump Jr. podcast, "Triggered with Don Jr." — homage to the title of his 2019 book.
The live show will air twice a week beginning Jan. 23, with the possibility of expanding its cadence in the future.
Trump Jr. joined Rumble in early 2021. He has since amassed over 1 million subscribers, giving him one of the platform's largest followings.
Between the lines: Rumble has pushed to expand its footprint by inking exclusive deals with personalities with big followings — including Russell Brand, Glenn Greenwald and YouTuber David Freiheit, who goes by the pseudonym VivaFrei.
‘While other Big Tech companies are ... censoring dissent,’ Trump Jr. said, ‘Rumble is building a platform that welcomes it, which is why so many content creators ... are now joining them.’
By the numbers: Rumble is much smaller than platforms like YouTube or Instagram. But it has managed to attract one of the largest audiences of the slew of alternative platforms that rose after the Capitol riot.
The Toronto-based company said it averaged 71 million global monthly active users when it reported Q3 results in November. Of those users, 57 million were based in the U.S. and Canada.
The company raised money from V.C. backers including Peter Thiel and Sen.-elect J.D. Vance.” [Axios]
“Lives Lived: Jeremiah Green was one of the founding members of Modest Mouse, an indie rock band known for its textured and wide-ranging sound. Green died at 45.” Read more at New York Times