The Full Belmonte, 1/29/2024
A satellite view of the US military outpost in Jordan where a drone attack killed three American service members.
Middle East
“A drone attack at a US outpost in Jordan on Sunday killed three American service members and wounded more than 30 others. This marks the first time US troops have been killed by enemy fire in the Middle East since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas. President Joe Biden vowed to retaliate after the deadly attack, saying that while facts are still being gathered, ‘we know it was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq.’ Iran has denied any involvement. Meanwhile, a growing number of countries — including the US — are cutting off funding to the main UN agency in Gaza following allegations that staff members were involved in the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel.” [CNN]
War pressure rises
A satellite view last year of Tower 22 — a remote logistics support base in Jordan, where a large drone killed three U.S. troops. Photo: Planet Labs via AP
“President Biden and other top U.S. officials yesterday discussed a ‘significant military response’ against pro-Iranian militias over the drone attack near the Jordan-Syria border that killed three American soldiers and wounded more than 30 others, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.
Why it matters: The White House and Pentagon are trying to calibrate their retaliation to contain the growing risk of regional war. But pressure for more significant action is brewing on Capitol Hill, with hawks pushing for strikes inside Iran.
‘We don't want war but those who are behind this attack need to feel our response,’ a U.S. official told Axios last night.
There have been more than 150 attacks targeting U.S. troops in the region since the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7, many of them by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria. The attack in Jordan was the first to kill American soldiers.
After a moment of silence for the three fallen soldiers, Biden said yesterday in West Columbia, S.C., ‘And we shall respond.’
Zoom in: While the Biden administration is preparing to hit Iran's proxies, Republican hawks are pushing Biden to hit Iran directly.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) called for ‘serious, crippling costs’ to Iran, ‘not only on front-line terrorist proxies, but on their Iranian sponsors who wear American blood as a badge of honor.’
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) tweeted: ‘Target Tehran.’ He later specified he was calling for strikes against Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) tweeted: ‘Hit Iran now. Hit them hard.’
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) said: ‘The only answer to these attacks must be devastating military retaliation against Iran's terrorist forces, both in Iran and across the Middle East. Anything less will confirm Joe Biden as a coward unworthy of being commander-in-chief.’
Location of drone strikes. Map: Axios Visuals
Behind the scenes: Biden administration officials believe a ceasefire in Gaza is key to reducing regional tensions. During a one-week pause last November, attacks on U.S. forces in the region stopped almost completely.
Zoom out: The war in Gaza has sent violent tremors through the region, with the U.S. becoming steadily more directly involved.” [Axios]
Border battle
“A possible border deal could head to the Senate floor in the coming days, Sen. Chris Murphy told CNN on Sunday. However, the question remains whether Republicans are going to listen to former President Donald Trump, who has tried to tank the compromise. Trump in recent weeks has tried to kill the bipartisan legislation, in part, because he wants to campaign on the issue this November and doesn't want President Biden to score a victory in an area where he is politically vulnerable. Components of the deal include a new authority that allows the president to shut down the border between ports of entry when unlawful crossings reach high levels, reforming the asylum system to resolve cases in a shorter timeframe and expediting work permits.” [CNN]
The immigration election
A migrant family talks to National Guard soldiers after crossing the Rio Grande this month in Eagle Pass, Texas, as seen from Piedras Negras, Mexico. Photo: Go Nakamura/Reuters
“One policy issue will dominate this presidential election like no other: policing the border with Mexico.
Both President Biden and former President Trump are pouncing on the topic in the unofficial start to the 2024 general election.
Why it matters: Their internal polls show what public ones shout — that immigration is the policy topic animating voters most viscerally.
The issue has made both candidates say and do extraordinary things in the past few days.
Trump opposes a bipartisan border security bill that would give Biden emergency border-security funding. ‘I'll fight it all the way,’ Trump said yesterday in Las Vegas, in what aides considered his first speech of the general election. ‘Please blame it on me. Please.’
Biden is all-in on border restrictions he would have ridiculed a few short years ago, saying yesterday in Columbia, S.C., that the bill would give him ‘the emergency authority to shut down the border until it could get back under control. If that bill were the law today, I'd shut down the border right now and fix it quickly.’
Truth bomb: Republicans know immigration alone could sink Biden. So Trump and House Republicans will kill anything, even if it meets or exceeds their wishes. Biden knows immigration alone could sink him. So he's willing to accept what he once considered unacceptable — to save himself.” [Axios]
Taxes
“The IRS will begin accepting and processing 2023 federal income tax returns today. But if you're not an early bird, the filing deadline for most people is April 15. If you are owed a refund — like the majority of tax filers — the IRS typically issues them within 21 days of accepting your return. Financial experts say the best way to ensure you get your refund as quickly as possible is to fill out your return accurately and completely, electronically file it and select "direct deposit" when asked how you want to receive payment. You might also want to review some of the most common and costly tax return mistakes the IRS sees to help ensure you receive a speedy payment.” [CNN]
Gas prices
“The average price for a gallon of gas in the US is $3.10 — a significant decrease from the all-time peak of $4.67 in fall 2022. Still, drivers in many states consistently pay much more for gas than the rest of the country. California's current average price is $4.49, largely due to environmental restrictions, higher taxes and a shrinking number of regional refineries. Hawaii is the only state currently with higher gas prices than California, but the state's geographical isolation plays a large role in prices. As for the rest of the nation, analysts say gas prices will hold steady for now, even amid escalating violence in the Middle East. That's because some economic factors — such as weaker demand in countries like China and Germany and an ample oil and gas supply — are superseding concerns about the violence in the region.” [CNN]
Taking away Trump’s business empire would be an unprecedented step under New York’s fraud law
“Within days, Donald Trump could have his sprawling real estate business empire ordered ‘dissolved’ for repeated misrepresentations on financial statements to lenders, adding him to a short list of scam marketers, con artists and others who have been hit with the ultimate punishment for violating New York’s anti-fraud law. Read more.
Key takeaways:
An Associated Press analysis of nearly 70 years of similar cases showed Trump’s stands apart: It’s the only big business found that was threatened with a shutdown without a showing of obvious victims and major losses.
So if the fraud is obvious, the impact is not. Banks and others have not complained, and it’s unclear how much they lost, if anything.
The principles of fair play in business are enough to justify a harsh penalty, lawyers for the state have argued, but even they aren’t calling for liquidation. Some legal experts worry that if the judge punishes Trump with that worst-case scenario, it could make it easier for courts to wipe out companies in the future.” [AP News]
Republican legislatures in some states are trying to keep abortion off the ballot
“Some lawmakers in Missouri and Mississippi are attempting to prevent voters from having a say over abortion rights, building on anti-abortion strategies seen in other states, including last year in Ohio. Read more.
Why this matters:
Republican lawmakers and abortion opponents’ efforts are evidence of them trying to undercut democratic processes which are meant to give voters a direct role in forming state laws, Democrats and abortion rights advocates have argued.
Voters in seven states have either protected abortion rights or defeated attempts to curtail them in statewide votes since the Supreme Court overturned the right to abortion. Democrats have pledged to make abortion a central campaign issue this year for races up and down the ballot.” [CNN]
Kochs move cash from Haley to Senate
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
“A conservative group that spent millions backing Nikki Haley's presidential campaign says it isn't giving up on her — but acknowledges she faces an ‘uphill’ battle and they are now focusing on Senate races, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.
Why it matters: The group — AFP Action, part of Americans for Prosperity, founded by billionaire Charles Koch and his late brother, David — fears a Trump nomination would be a massive drag on other Republicans on the November ballot.
Zoom in: AFP Action gave Haley's campaign a huge boost last month, announcing plans to spend $27 million on ads and on-the-ground campaigning in Iowa, New Hampshire and five other states.
But Haley finished third in Iowa's caucuses and lost New Hampshire to Trump by double digits.” [Axios]
Today's WorldView
Ukraine’s hopes for victory over Russia are slipping away
A member of a Ukrainian air defense unit in the woods north of Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday. (Alice Martins for The Washington Post/FTWP)
“It’s hard to ignore the sense of desperation in Ukraine’s corridors of power. Nearing two years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, authorities in Kyiv maintain their long-standing entreaty to partners in the West: Deliver us more arms, more aid, more political commitments.
President Volodymyr Zelensky toured Western capitals at the end of last year, pleading for support amid growing international fatigue with the conflict and paralysis in U.S. Congress over new supplemental funding for Kyiv. Around the same time, his top general, Valery Zaluzhny, bemoaned the ‘stalemate’ that had set into place after the much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023 failed to make strategic headway against Russia’s deep defensive lines.
U.S. officials and their Western counterparts, as my colleagues reported over the weekend, anticipate a lean year ahead, where Ukraine’s increasingly exhausted forces focus more on consolidating their defense than chipping away at Russia’s land-grabs. The Kremlin controls roughly a fifth of Ukraine’s internationally-recognized territory — including Crimea, which it illegally annexed in 2014, and a broad sweep of Ukraine’s southeast. The U.S. view of the course of the conflict undercuts Zelensky’s stated ambition of driving Russia out by this October.
Last week, Pentagon officials came empty-handed to a monthly 50-nation coordinating meeting for Ukraine, with future U.S. money for arms and aid snared by domestic politics. On the front lines, reports indicate stocks of ammunition and artillery shells are running low for many Ukrainian units.
‘We get asked what’s our plan, but we need to understand what resources we’re going to have,’ Ukrainian lawmaker Roman Kostenko told my colleagues. ‘Right now, everything points to the possibility that we will have less than last year, when we tried to do a counteroffensive and it didn’t work out. … If we will have even less, then it’s clear what the plan will be. It will be defense.’
Men dig to fill the graves of two soldiers during their joint funeral in a cemetery on the outskirts of Kherson, Ukraine, in November. (Ed Ram for The Washington Post/FTWP)
Looming far away from the battlefield is the political drama in Washington. House Republicans have already stymied the latest tranche of funding that President Biden is trying to allocate for Kyiv. Analysts believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is holding out for a potential return to power of former president Donald Trump, the likely Republican presidential candidate for the November election. Trump may scale back support for Ukraine and take a friendlier view of the Kremlin’s security concerns in Eastern Europe.
As my colleagues reported, the Biden administration and European allies are working on a longer-term, multilateral plan aimed at warding against this scenario and future-proofing support for Ukraine. That includes pledges of economic and security assistance that stretch into the next decade, and may pave the way for Ukraine to get integrated into Western blocs like the European Union and NATO. Biden is set to unveil the U.S. plank of this strategy in the spring.
‘The policy holds risks, including political ones, if Ukrainians begin to blame their government for stagnant front lines,’ my colleagues wrote. ‘Likewise, in Western capitals, officials are keenly aware that their citizens’ patience with funding Ukraine’s war is not infinite. Amid the planning, Washington also seems to be readying the argument that, even if Ukraine is not going to regain all of its territory in the near term, it needs significant ongoing assistance to be able to defend itself and become an integral part of the West.’
But, in the near term, both the shortfalls on Ukraine’s front lines and divisions in Washington may cement the fate of the war. ‘While the first half of 2024 may bring few changes in control of Ukrainian territory, the materiel, personnel training, and casualties that each side accrues in the next few months will determine the long-term trajectory of the conflict,’ wrote Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank. ‘The West in fact faces a crucial choice right now: support Ukraine so that its leaders can defend their territory and prepare for a 2025 offensive or cede an irrecoverable advantage to Russia.’
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a meeting with President Biden in the Oval Office on Dec. 12. (Bill O'Leary/The Washington Post)
The West may have already squandered its best chance to enable Ukraine to fully liberate its territory. In his new book, ‘Our Enemies Will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine’s War of Independence,’ Wall Street Journal international correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov outlines how Western governments slow-rolled military support to Ukraine out of fear of triggering a possible nuclear-armed escalation with Russia. The United States and its allies have sent Ukraine an unprecedented flow of aid, but critics say the overly careful calibration of that support undermined the Ukrainian war effort.
‘The United States and its partners held back from supplying Ukraine with Western-made capabilities at a time when they would have had the biggest effect, and prohibited Kyiv from using Western weapons to strike military targets on Russian soil,’ Trofimov wrote, in an adapted excerpt from his book published in The Washington Post. ‘By the time many of these Western systems did arrive, in the second year of the war, Russia had built up defenses, mobilized hundreds of thousands of troops and switched its industries to wartime footing. The best window of opportunity for a clear and quick Ukrainian victory had disappeared.’
Other experts aren’t so sure, and contend that the Biden administration had a responsibility to avoid a spiraling confrontation with Russia. ‘More aid, sooner, would have been better — but there’s no guarantee it would have brought a decisive Ukrainian victory,’ wrote Bloomberg Opinion columnist Hal Brands. ‘The best guarantee of that outcome would have been threatening direct military intervention, a strategy that virtually no one wanted to pursue because the risks were so obvious and, potentially, so severe. Indeed, it would have required Biden to more aggressively cross Russia’s red lines at the very moment when uncertainty about Putin’s response was at its peak.’
Instead, Ukrainians and their boosters lament what could have been after Ukrainian forces surprised virtually everyone in repulsing Russia’s initial offensive on Kyiv and defiantly standing their ground in the early months of the war. ‘He opened his mouth like a python and thought that we’re just another bunny,’ Zelensky told Trofimov in a 2022 interview, referring to Putin. ‘But we’re not a bunny and it turned out that he can’t swallow us — and is actually at risk of getting torn apart himself.’
Russia, though, has also stood its ground, withstood international sanctions and is preparing for fresh offensives in Ukraine, on top of its incessant, indiscriminate missile barrages into Ukrainian cities. Kyiv knows its ability to resist hinges on foreign backing. ‘We wouldn’t survive without U.S. support, it’s a real fact,’ Zelensky said in a television interview this month.” [Washington Post]
At Least 12 U.N. Agency Employees Involved in Oct. 7 Attacks, Intelligence Reports Say
“At least 12 U.N. Palestinian refugee agency workers were tied to the Oct. 7 attack and about 10% of its Gaza staff have links to militant groups, intelligence says.”
READ MORE at Wall Street Journal
“The US is in danger of slipping deeper into a Middle East quagmire.
It’s a dilemma President Joe Biden wanted to avoid in an election year. But a weekend drone attack by militants believed to be linked to Iran that killed three American soldiers at a base in Jordan means a US response is all but inevitable.
Iran called allegations of its involvement in the incident near the borders of Iraq and Syria ‘baseless.’
A direct hit on Iran is fraught with risk. One possibility is covert action that would see the US strike Iran to send a message without directly acknowledging involvement.
The Biden administration could also target Iranian officials, as then-President Donald Trump did when he ordered the killing of General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020.
A response that falls short risks undermining perceptions of US power and would leave Biden open to Republican charges of weakness.
The latest violence comes as the US is pushing a deal for Hamas, which is also backed by Iran, to release the remaining hostages it took in its Oct. 7 attack on Israel in exchange for a cease-fire in Gaza that could last at least two months and get more aid into the devastated territory.
Another Iranian-backed group — the Yemen-based Houthis — has continued to attack commercial shipping through the Red Sea despite airstrikes by the US and its allies.
Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based group and Tehran’s most powerful proxy, has limited its engagement so far to cross-border fire with Israel.
Amid the spreading ripple effects of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, the working assumption is that calming that conflict can avert further escalation in the region.
But the deeper Washington gets drawn into a confrontation with Tehran, the greater the danger that the US-Iran confrontation will take on its own momentum.” — Sylvia Westall [Bloomberg]
A rally in Tehran to support the Palestinian people and Houthis on Jan. 12. Photographer: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
“After winning confirmation to the post of European Commission president five years ago by the narrowest margin in European Union history, Ursula von der Leyen positively surprised many, Jorge Valero reports. Yet in subsequently gathering more power than any predecessor, she has proved a controversial leader of the EU executive at a time of mounting challenges to the 27-nation bloc, casting doubt over any bid for a second term.” [Bloomberg]
“France’s powerful farming unions threatened to block highways around Paris today after the government failed to appease them with promises of additional aid. Farmers angry over rising production costs and stringent European regulations have been choking roadways for more than a week, joining similarly irate counterparts protesting in nations such as Germany and Poland.” [Bloomberg]
A banner reads ‘Here Begins The Country Of Agricultural Resistance’ at a roadblock in Carbonne on Jan. 24. Photographer: Matthieu Rondel/Bloomberg
“Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s backsliding on his promise of free and fair elections is likely to prompt the Biden administration to reimpose some sanctions but probably not the stiffest ones related to oil, analysts say. Washington still has plenty of incentives to continue negotiating with the Venezuelan leader and to keep a more lenient policy in place.” [Bloomberg]
“Taiwan faces the risk that its dwindling band of allies shrinks further, as another country may switch its diplomatic recognition to Beijing. Ties with the Pacific nation of Tuvalu have been cast into doubt following an election in which the incumbent prime minister lost his seat in Parliament.” [Bloomberg]
“North Korea tested what it billed as newly developed cruise missiles for use in submarines, with leader Kim Jong Un overseeing the launch and ramping up rhetoric about a potential conflict with the US and South Korea.” [Bloomberg]
“The Chinese Embassy in the US warned students from the Asian nation to be careful when flying through Washington Dulles International Airport after it said “many” were interrogated there by border agents or sent back to China.” [Bloomberg]
“Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko backed his deputy for next month’s presidential election after being barred from competing.” [Bloomberg]
America rethinks reading
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Dozens of cities and states across America are overhauling the way their schools teach reading to close gaps exacerbated by the pandemic, Axios' Erica Pandey writes.
Why it matters: Nearly 40% of U.S. fourth graders are below the basic proficiency level for reading, according to a standard national exam.
By the numbers: 37 states and D.C. have passed laws or enacted policies changing the way reading is taught — pursuing new methods that are backed by studies.
Zoom out: American schools' materials for teaching reading haven't kept up with decades of science and research into how kids learn.
Many districts have long used ‘balanced literacy,’ which directs teachers to read aloud to kids, inspire a love of books, and teach strategies like guessing words based on pictures.
The new approach, ‘science of reading,’ teaches more explicitly, emphasizing phonics, vocabulary and comprehension.
How we got here: The reading debate had a breakout moment due to the collision of several trends over the last few years, the N.Y. Times reports.
Many parents — home with their kids for the first time during the pandemic — noticed problems with their reading and started a grassroots movement for change, said Tiffany Hogan, director of the Speech and Language Literacy Lab at MGH Institute in Boston.
‘The fire was burning, and that threw on the gasoline,’ Hogan said.
And some early adopters of the new methods saw stunning results.
Zoom in: Mississippi climbed from 49th out of 50 states for fourth-grade reading proficiency in 2013 to 21st in 2022.
State legislators and educators tried a number of strategies, including emphasizing sound-it-out, phonics-based instruction.
After Mississippi, other states started paying attention.
Reality check: Progress could take decades.
The system is populated with educators who were taught entirely different methods, and ‘the resistance is real,’ said Mark Seidenberg, a psychologist at the University of Wisconsin.” [Axios]
We have our Super Bowl lineup: Chiefs v. 49ers
“We now have the matchup for Super Bowl 58. The Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl 54. In the AFC championship game, the Chiefs — despite punting five consecutive times in the second half before the final possession to bleed the clock to zero — took down the Baltimore Ravens to advance. In the NFC championship game, the Detroit Lions couldn’t hold on to their 17-point lead at halftime and yielded 27 unanswered points, as the 49ers thwarted what was a magical run for the long-suffering franchise. Here's our full recap of the conference championship winners and losers.
•The Lions' first Super Bowl was in sight. But then Detroit had a meltdown for the ages.” [USA Today]
Detroit running back David Montgomery falls to the turf after the Lions' 34-31 loss to the 49ers in the NFC championship game.
Junfu Han, USA TODAY NETWORK