The Full Belmonte, 12/8/2023
“The war between Israel and Hamas has been growing more brutal by the day since last week’s truce expired. Whatever optimism might have existed after each side exchanged hostages during the ceasefire, the latest wave of headlines has done a convincing job of dispelling it. Here are a few selections from this morning:
Israel escalates Gaza strikes, UN says nowhere in enclave is safe, Reuters. The Israeli military said it had struck 450 targets within Gaza on Friday, attacking from the land, sea, and air. It was twice the number of strikes seen in the preceding days. ‘Intense close-quarter combat’ is underway in Khan Younis, the largest city in southern Gaza.
Civil order is breaking down in Gaza, UN warns, New York Times. The UN’s top humanitarian official in Gaza said on X: ‘Civil order is breaking down in Gaza — the streets feel wild, particularly after dark — some aid convoys are being looted and UN vehicles stoned. Society is on the brink of full-blown collapse.’
UN chief uses rare power to warn Security Council of impending ‘humanitarian catastrophe’ in Gaza, AP. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres invoked Article 99 in a letter to the security council members, a rarely used designation meant to convey the severity of the crisis and to demand an immediate humanitarian ceasefire.
Reuters also published an investigation of the events that led to one of its journalists being killed by Israeli forces in mid-October, igniting another round of condemnations for the reckless ways in which critics say Israel is conducting its military campaign. Meanwhile, an American man faces federal charges for firing a shotgun outside of a New York City synagogue. That burst of violence followed last week’s shooting of three Palestinian college students in Burlington, Vermont. The investigation is ongoing, but the students may have been targeted in part because two of them were wearing keffiyehs, traditional Palestinian scarves.
The Burlington shooting prompted a searing, thoughtful essay from my colleague Abdallah Fayyad on how the keffiyeh has become a symbol of the Palestinian cause.
Hazem Bader/AFP/Getty Images
Abdallah explains the scarf is a point of national pride and cultural identity for the Palestinians themselves, but also the source of fear and discomfort for others. He writes about the pride he’s felt seeing the keffiyeh show up in unexpected places, like the one worn by an uncommented-upon extra in Home Alone 2. But he also reflects on the ways it has been weaponized in prejudicial ways: Just last year, a North Carolina police department deployed a man wearing the scarf for a school shooting drill.
What began as a practical piece of clothing for people living in a desert climate has been imbued with a much deeper meaning, Abdallah writes:
‘As long as Palestinians are subjugated as a people, then even something as simple as a traditional scarf turns into something bigger than a cultural display; it becomes an intrinsic part of a controversial journey toward freedom. So while Palestinians still wear the keffiyeh for the cloth’s practical purposes and cultural significance, they also often wear it to assert a political statement. After all, expressing Palestinian identity has become an act of resistance in and of itself — to remind others that this people is still here.’” [Vox]
Fierce fighting in Gaza as U.N. pushes for cease-fire
“Israel says its forces have surrounded the home of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwarin southern Gaza, as fierce fighting rages in the heart of Khan Younis, the enclave’s second-largest city.
Palestinian civilians fleeing the violence in Gaza are being squeezed into smaller and smaller areas in the south.
Israel has accused Hamas of launching rockets from some of these humanitarian zones, citing maps, photos, and video as evidence. NBC News has not verified the claims.
As the war hits the two-month mark, U.N. chief António Guterres has invoked a rarely used clause to urge the U.N. Security Council to call for a cease-fire in Gaza, though such a resolution could face a veto from the United States.” [NBC News]
“Video of dozens of Palestinian men stripped to their underwear and blindfolded while being detained by Israeli forces in Gaza has sparked global outrage.” [NBC News]
Palestinians waiting to receive food supplies at an aid-distribution center run by the U.N. in Gaza.
PHOTO: MAJDI FATHI/NURPHOTO/ZUMA PRESS
Residents in southern Gaza scramble for safety and basic needs.
“Public order is breaking down as Israel’s military offensive dislodges Hamas’s control of the enclave. Palestinians are reporting cases of starvation and disease. The U.N. said its operations were near collapse and Israeli military restrictions have made it impossible to distribute aid anywhere beyond the small area along the Egyptian border. In the southern city of Khan Younis—where intense fighting risks putting Israel on a collision course with the Biden administration—people broke into a U.N. warehouse and took food supplies. The rapid deterioration of basic living standards adds to a humanitarian crisis that will be the subject of a U.N. Security Council meeting tomorrow.” [Wall Street Journal]
Texas judge grants woman's abortion request in historic ruling
“A Texas judge has granted an emergency order allowing a woman to terminate her non-viable pregnancy in the state.
The case marks the first time since the Roe v. Wade decision more than 50 years ago that an adult woman has asked a court to authorize an abortion.
Kate Cox, who is 20 weeks pregnant, recently learned her fetus has a genetic condition that will likely cause stillbirth or the death of the baby shortly after birth, according to her attorney.
In their lawsuit, Cox’s attorneys said she’s been unable to obtain an abortion under the state’s near-total ban, which has narrow exceptions for the health of the mother.
‘Kate Cox’s life and future fertility are at great risk, and according to her doctor, the medical care that she needs is an abortion,’ her attorney said at today’s hearing.
Judge Maya Guerra Gamble said in her ruling, ‘The idea that Miss Cox wants desperately to be a parent, and this law might actually cause her to lose that ability is shocking and would be a genuine miscarriage of justice.’” [NBC News]
“Hunter Biden, the president's son, has been charged with nine counts related to his failure to pay federal taxes on millions of dollars of income. The indictment stems from special counsel David Weiss' long-running investigation into Hunter Biden and comes months after a plea deal fell apart that would have allowed him to avoid jail time.
Mark Makela/Getty Images
Earlier this summer, Biden was indicted on federal gun chargesas part of the same investigation. His attorney says none of the charges would have been brought if his name isn't Biden. He accused the special counsel of folding under Republican pressure, NPR's Ryan Lucas reports on Up First.” [NPR]
The F.D.A. approved the first gene editing therapy ever, for sickle cell disease. This breakthrough offers hope, but also comes with obstacles.
“The agency also approved a second treatment using conventional gene therapy for sickle cell disease, a debilitating blood disorder caused by a single mutated gene.”
Read more at New York Times
U.S. Economy Added 199,000 Jobs in November
Hiring slowed from earlier this year, with U.S. employers adding 199,000 jobs in November. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%.
READ MORE at Wall Street Journal
A Congressional panel will probe harassment against Jewish students at three universities.
“The House Committee on Education and the Workforce is opening an investigation into Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Pennsylvania and plans to request documents related to the schools’ policies and disciplinary records. It could expand the probe to other schools. MIT said the school ‘rejects antisemitism in all its forms,’ and will address the congressional committee’s questions. Harvard and Penn didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment about the investigation. The probe adds pressure on the institutions’ leaders. They testified to Congress earlier in the week that whether calls for genocide of Jewish students qualified as harassment depended on the context and whether that speech turned into conduct. Politicians, Jewish advocacy groups, students and donors criticized the response.” [Wall Street Journal]
University presidents hammered
Harvard President Claudine Gay; Penn President Liz Magill; Pamela Nadell, professor of history and Jewish studies at American University; and MIT President Sally Kornbluth testify. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
“The presidents of Harvard, Penn and MIT are under heavy, bipartisan fire after they hedged when asked in a congressional hearing whether they would discipline students who called for a genocide of Jews.
Why it matters: Rarely has a congressional hearing generated this much bipartisan rage.
On Tuesday, the three presidents were handling the usual questions in the usual way, and condemned Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel — until Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) asked whether they would discipline students who called for the genocide of Jews.
They evaded the question, answering legalistically and formulaically. They said it would depend on the context, and whether antisemitic words led to actions.
That prompted criticism from both sides of the aisle and from the schools' donors.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) called the Penn president's equivocation ‘unacceptable’ and ‘failed leadership.’
White House spokesman Andrew Bates said in response to the hearing: ‘We just witnessed the worst massacre suffered by the Jewish people since the Holocaust, the latest atrocities in a heartbreaking, genocidal pattern that goes back thousands of years.’
‘It's unbelievable that this needs to be said: calls for genocide are monstrous and antithetical to everything we represent as a country,’ his statement added.
The Harvard Crimson's headline: ‘Harvard President Gay Traveled to Washington to Quell the Backlash. Her Testimony Only Made It Worse.’
‘The swift blowback to her testimony led Gay to issue a clarification through Harvard's official social media channels Wednesday afternoon,’ the student paper reported.” [Axios]
Penn donor yanks $100M gift
Cover: New York Post
“A University of Pennsylvania donor is withdrawing a gift worth around $100 million to protest the school's response to antisemitism on campus, Axios Pro Rata author Dan Primack was first to report.
Why it matters: The final straw for Ross Stevens, founder and CEO of Stone Ridge Asset Management, was Tuesday's widely criticized congressional testimony by Penn president Liz Magill.
The gift from Stevens, a Penn undergrad alum, was given to help establish a center for innovation in finance.
It was in the form of limited partnership units in Stone Ridge, with the current value estimated at around $100 million.
Stevens, in a letter from his lawyers to Penn, alleges that the school has violated the terms of the limited partnership agreement, including its anti-discrimination and anti-harassment policies.
What's next: The letter concludes by offering to discuss the matter further. But a source close to the situation tells Axios that the current intention is to withdraw the gift.
UNLV campus shooter was professor rejected for job, police say
•A suspect killed six people in separate Texas attacks, authorities say.
Two women are pictured sitting after a shooting on the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, campus.
Bizuayehu Tesfaye, AP
“The gunman who killed three people and wounded a fourth on the campus of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas on Wednesday had applied for a professor position at the school in 2020 but was not hired, according to two senior law enforcement officials briefed on the case.
The shooter, identified as a 67-year-old man, opened fire on the fourth floor of UNLV’s business school and continued to ‘multiple’ other floors before he was killed in a shootout with police, authorities said.
Two of the victims have been identified as Cha Jan Chang, 64, a professor, and Patricia Navarro Velez, 39, an assistant professor, according to the coroner. The third victim’s identity is being withheld pending notification of next of kin.
The gunman taught for more than 20 years at colleges in Nevada and North Carolina, the schools have confirmed.
He also maintained a personal website with writings about his career, hobbies, and claims that he decoded the Zodiac Killer’s messages.
All classes and academic-related activities on campus are canceled through Sunday.” [NBC News]
House Republicans secretly consider expelling Matt Gaetz
“Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., continues to draw the ire of his Republican colleagues in the House weeks after he led the ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., from the speakership, with some of his detractors privately floating expelling him from Congress. Several Republican House members, many of whom are still angry at Gaetz for his antics that have impeded McCarthy and the majority of the conference from passing legislation, have begun to discuss Gaetz’ ongoing investigation by the House Ethics Committee.” Read more at USA Today
U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., casts his vote as the House of Representatives holds an election for a new Speaker of the House at the U.S. Capitol on October 25, 2023 in Washington, DC.
Win McNamee, Getty Images
Nikki Haley surged to second place in the Republican nomination race, thanks to her debate performances.
“Former President Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP field nationally, with 59% of the vote, according to a new WSJ poll. But Haley, the former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor, has edged into second with 15%, virtually tying Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s 14%. No other candidate breaks double digits. Deft yet serious, quick-witted yet substantive, Haley’s debate performances are feats of political athleticism that few can match, writes WSJ’s Molly Ball. Her rivals have taken note, unleashing a barrage of attacks during last night’s debate.” [Wall Street Journal]
U.S. Jewish groups target misinfo
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“The nation's most powerful Jewish interest groups have come together to launch the 10/7 Project, a bipartisan effort to fight misinformation related to the Israel-Hamas war, Axios' Sara Fischer has learned.
The groups are collectively committing seven figures to the effort.
Why it matters: It's the biggest unified effort from the Jewish lobbying sector in recent memory.
‘Having these five organizations work together in this fashion is unprecedented and shows how important American Jewry believes this moment is to the State of Israel to combat Jewish hate in America and the world,’ said Josh Isay, executive director of the 10/7 Project.
The effort is being led by the American Jewish Committee (AJC), the Jewish Federations of North America (JFNA), the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations.
Those five groups will fund the creation of a centralized communications operation that aims to provide newsrooms and policymakers with fact-based information on the war.
The group plans to work with surrogates, celebrities and people with recognizable brands to help amplify its message.
The Jewish groups are working with several bipartisan political operators and public affairs firms, including SKDK — where Isay was formerly CEO — OnMessage Public Strategies, and CKR Strategies, the firm co-founded by former Hillary Clinton aide Philippe Reines.” [Axios]
Appeals court largely upholds Trump’s federal gag order
“A federal appeals court has largely upheld a gag order on Donald Trump, concluding that Trump’s rhetoric poses ‘real-time, real-world consequences’ that threaten the integrity of his upcoming criminal trial over his attempts to subvert the 2020 presidential election.
A three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Trump’s complaints about free speech and his presidential candidacy ring hollow when juxtaposed with the ‘imminent’ threats his invective has posed to witnesses and the court proceedings themselves.
Trump returns to civil fraud trial after skipping latest debate
David Dee Delgado/Getty Images
“Donald Trump is back in a New York courtroom as testimony enters its final days in the former president’s $250 million fraud trial.
On his way into court, Trump attacked Judge Arthur Engoron and New York Attorney General Letitia James, calling the trial a ‘witch hunt.’
Trump is expected to testify Monday as the last witness for the defense. He was previously called to the stand as part of James’ case on Nov. 6.
Trump’s appearance in court today comes after he skipped another Republican presidential primary debate last night in Alabama, where four of his rivals jockeyed for second place behind his commanding lead.
The candidates largely avoided direct attacks on Trump, except for Chris Christie, who called the former president a ‘dictator’ and a ‘bully.’” [NBC News]
“Donald Trump is in court on Thursday as his New York state fraud trial nears its conclusion. An expert witness, testifying in his defense, told the court that he had seen ‘no evidence whatsoever for accounting fraud’ in the Trump Organization’s valuations of its real estate properties that are at the heart of the case, according to CBS News.
The witness, New York University accounting professor Eli Bartov, dismissed the one clear case of inflated property values. Particular attention has been drawn to Trump’s penthouse in Trump Tower, which Forbes reported was one-third of the size that Trump had claimed. Bartov acknowledged the inflated value of that apartment, but then dismissed that as a calculation error rather than any kind of intentional fraud.
Trump was already found liable for fraud. The former president’s innocence or guilt isn’t at issue here; the current trial is meant to adjudicate what exactly the consequences of that liability should be.
New York Attorney General Letitia James is seeking $250 million in relief in the fraud case. The lawsuit is civil — and separate from Trump’s criminal charges — but could imperil his namesake business; James is asking for financial penalties against Trump personally, for his legal team’s ‘frivolous’ tactics in the case, as well as claiming damages on behalf of lenders and others who were defrauded by the inflated real estate values.
Trump is set to take the stand next week. Trump has already made a spectacle of himself at the trial, drawing $15,000 in fines for comments critical of the presiding judge and forcing the court to issue a gag order. His children have already testified in the case, and Trump himself is supposed to be the final witness during a hearing next Thursday.” [Vox]
Behind the curtain: Trump's loyalty-first Cabinet
Clockwise from top left: Stephen Miller, Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio; Steve Bannon, Mike Davis, Tucker Carlson and Kash Patel. Photos: Giorgio Viera/AFP, Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg, Brandon Bell, Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
“Former President Trump, if elected, would build a Cabinet and White House staff based on two imperatives: pre-vetted loyalty to him and a commitment to stretch legal and governance boundaries, sources who talk often with the leading GOP presidential candidate tell Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei.
Why it matters: Trump would fill the most powerful jobs in government with men like Stephen Miller, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio and Kash Patel — with the possible return of Steve Bannon. If Trump won in 2024, he'd turn to loyalists who share his zeal to punish critics, purge non-believers, and take controversial legal and military action, the sources tell us.
Trump and his prospective top officials don't mince words about their plans:
They want to target and jail critics, including government officials and journalists; deport undocumented immigrants or put them in detainment camps, and unleash the military to target drug cartels in Mexico, or possibly crack down on criminals or protesters at home.
They want to scrap rules that limit their ability to purge government workers deemed disloyal.
What's happening: Trump hasn't settled on specific roles for specific figures, and hates it when his staff and friends speculate otherwise. It's not in his DNA to do detailed personnel planning, and a lot depends on the last few people he's talked to.
But in rolling conversations with friends and advisers, he's been clear about the type of men — and they're almost all older, white men — he'd want to serve at his pleasure if he were to win a second term.
Between the lines: We wrote last month about the multimillion-dollar effort to vet loyalists for up to 50,000 lower-level government jobs in a Trump administration. This is about their potential bosses.
It's unclear who would land where, but make no mistake: These are specific prototypes of Trump Republicans who would run his government. This is very different from the early days of his first term. This time, it'd be all loyalists, no restraints.
Here's our latest intelligence on what's being discussed among Trump and a small group of confidants:
Vice president: Those who'd be considered include J.D. Vance, the "Hillbilly Elegy" author and a MAGA favorite; Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders; Kari Lake, a leading election denier now running for U.S. Senate in Arizona, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem. (Vance might prefer to remain in the Senate as ‘Trump's hammer,’ we're told.)
Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), one of the few Black Republicans in Congress, has traveled with Trump on the campaign.
But here's an interesting twist: Melania Trump is an advocate for picking Tucker Carlson, the booted Fox News star. She thinks Carlson would make a powerful onstage extension of her husband, a source close to Trump told us.” [Axios]
Cold reception for anti-Trump suit
Trump attorney Scott Gessler argues before the Colorado Supreme Court in Denver yesterday. Photo: David Zalubowski/AP
“Efforts to keep former President Trump off the ballot next year in Colorado seemed to hit a wall yesterday in the state's Supreme Court, Axios Denver's John Frank reports.
Catch up quick: The 14th Amendment says people who have ‘have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against’ the U.S. cannot hold certain federal offices. But it's not clear:
(a) Whether that clause applies to the president.
(b) Whether Trump's role rose to the level of insurrection.
After oral arguments, the Colorado Supreme Court seemed inclined to rule that Trump can be on the ballot.” [Axios]
Trump's government-in-waiting
Former President Trump speaks at Whiskey River bar in Ankeny, Iowa, last Saturday. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images
“Others likely to wield power in a second Trump term share a lot in common with Tucker Carlson. They're full, proud MAGA warriors, anti-GOP establishment zealots, and eager and willing to test the boundaries of executive power to get Trump's way, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write:
Stephen Miller: He could be your next attorney general and, if not that, get a Cabinet-level role to greatly influence immigration policy.
He was the architect of Trump's most controversial immigration plans in the first term, and is eager to test the boundaries of what courts and the military can do to make this happen fast.
A source close to the Trump campaign told us A.G. is the office where Trump is ‘most likely to make a shocking pick,’ with the defiant view: ‘You want to weaponize DOJ, mother----er?’
Mike Davis: Donald Trump Jr. has floated Davis, the former chief counsel for nominations to then-Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), to be Trump's interim attorney general — saying it would be a ‘shot across the bow of the swamp.’
Steve Bannon: In the early days of Trump's first term, he was arguably the most powerful man on staff, plotting personnel and policy decisions from his Capitol Hill townhouse. Then, he was ousted and frozen out. Now, thanks to his popular podcast and pro-Trump fervency, he's back.
He could be the next White House chief of staff.
Kash Patel: A protege of former Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) who led efforts to discredit the Russia investigation, Patel came to be viewed as a political mercenary in Trump's war against the intelligence community. The former Pentagon official would be considered for a top national security job in the next administration, possibly even running the CIA or NSC.
Patel told Bannon on his ‘War Room’ podcast this week: ‘One thing we learned in the Trump administration the first go-round is we've got to put in all of our compatriots from top to bottom. ... Yes, we're going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens.’
Johnny McEntee, Trump's loyalty vetter and enforcer, headed presidential personnel in the first term. McEntee might return to that role with even more power.
The 33-year-old former UConn quarterback was empowered by the end of Trump's term in a way his predecessors never were — tasked with systematically purging officials deemed insufficiently loyal.
Jeffrey Clark — a former assistant attorney general for Trump who could get a top Justice Department slot — is the rare person to be considered for a future administration while under indictment.
Ric Grenell — former ambassador to Germany, and Trump's acting director of national intelligence — would be on the short list for secretary of state.
Former Trump national security adviser Robert O'Brien would be a more confirmable pick for SecDef.
Susie Wiles: Some in Trumpworld assume the most likely chief of staff is Wiles, the longtime Florida political operative who's running Trump's campaign.
John Ratcliffe, the former Texas congressman who was Trump's final DNI, would be considered to head the CIA, for a return to DNI, for defense secretary or even for vice president.
Jamie Dimon: Trump is open to a few more mainstream picks if they bring celebrity or pizzazz. For example, Trump would consider JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, a Democrat, to head Treasury. ‘He wants a big name,’ a source close to the campaign said. ‘And he loves billionaires.’
It's not clear Dimon would take the job — he's been talking privately with Nikki Haley about the global economy. Dimon told the N.Y. Times DealBook conference that Haley would be ‘a choice on the Republican side that might be better than Trump.’
Jared Kushner, a huge power center in Trump's West Wing, might well return to the White House if his father-in-law wins again.” [Axios]
House censures Rep. Jamaal Bowman for pulling fire alarm
“The House voted largely along party lines today to censure Rep. Jamaal Bowman, the Democrat from New York, for falsely pulling a fire alarm in a congressional building.
Bowman was seen on video pulling the alarm while the chamber was considering a vote to keep the government open on Sept. 30.
The congressman pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge for the incident, but said he had accidentally activated the alarm as he searched for a way to open a locked door.” [NBC News]
High-profile attacks on Derek Chauvin and Larry Nassar put spotlight on violence in federal prisons
“Derek Chauvin was stabbed nearly two dozen times in the law library at a federal prison in Arizona. Larry Nassar was knifed repeatedly in his cell at a penitentiary in Florida. The assaults on two notorious, high-profile federal prisoners by fellow inmates in recent months have renewed concerns about whether the chronically understaffed, crisis-plagued Federal Bureau of Prisons can keep people in its custody protected. Read more.
Why this matters:
The attacks on Chauvin and Nassar, among dozens of other assaults and deaths involving lesser-known inmates, are symptoms of larger systemic problems within the Justice Department’s largest agency that put all 158,000 federal prisoners at risk. They include severe staffing shortages, staff-on-inmate abuse, broken surveillance cameras and crumbling infrastructure.
The violence has challenged a perception — repeated by some lawyers and criminal justice experts quoted in the news media when Chauvin was sentenced last year — that federal prisons are far safer than state prisons or local jails.
An ongoing Associated Press investigation has uncovered deep, unreported problems within the Bureau of Prisons, including rampant sexual abuse and staff criminal conduct, dozens of escapes, chronic violence, deaths and severe staffing shortages that have hampered responses to emergencies, including inmate assaults and suicides.” [AP News]
He moved into his daughter's dorm and acted like a cult leader. The students are now suing the college
“Two former students are suing Sarah Lawrence College, arguing the New York school failed to protect them from Lawrence Ray, who moved into his daughter’s dorm after getting out of prison and then manipulated her friends and roommates into cult-like relationships.” Read More at AP News
18-car pileup in Colorado as major storm moves cross-country
“A pileup involving 18 vehicles in snowy conditions has closed part of Interstate 70 in Colorado, officials said, as a powerful storm sweeps across the country.
The system is now moving out of the Rockies and tracking across the Plains, with the risk of storms capable of producing large hail across eastern portions of Oklahoma and Texas, and much of Arkansas.
On Saturday, the system will bring a line of showers and storms from Houston to Cleveland.
The storms will reach the East Coast on Sunday, with heavy rain and wind from Florida to Maine.” [NBC News]
Ukraine wants U.S. help to make its own weapons.
“Kyiv was a major arms manufacturer during Soviet times but has suffered since then from a lack of investment. While the country has increased its production since the war with Russia started, it remains dependent on its allies. Western stockpiles of weapons are running down as the war shows no sign of ending. Senate Republicans blocked a U.S. bill for additional aid yesterday. Rebuilding Ukraine’s arms industry is expected to take years.” [Wall Street Journal]
U.S. needs to respond to Houthis after Red Sea attacks, former Middle East commander says
“Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, who commanded all U.S. forces in the Middle East for three years during the Trump and Biden presidencies, believes President Joe Biden should respond more forcefully to attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea — even as top administration officials remain wary of provoking Iran.
The former head of U.S. Central Command said Iran has taken the lack of a strong U.S. military response to the recent spike in Tehran-backed Houthi attacks on civilian vessels, which pose a threat to U.S. warships, as an invitation to continue its aggressive behavior.”
Read the latest at POLITICO
Ugandan Constitutional Court to consider challenge to Anti-Homosexuality Act
Hearing is slated to begin on Dec. 11
“Activists in Uganda are optimistic the queer community will get justice from the Constitutional Court hearing on a petition that challenges the country’s Anti-Homosexuality Act.
Some of the groups that spoke to the Washington Blade before the hearing begins on Dec. 11 termed the law that President Yoweri Museveni signed in May as ‘discriminatory, unconstitutional and a violation of fundamental human rights.’
Uganda Minority Shelters Consortium, a local NGO which supports and advocates for the rights of LGBTQ victims of violence and homelessness, noted the Anti-Homosexuality Act has created a “climate of fear and persecution” for queer Ugandans.
UMSC Coordinator John Grace said this situation has led to a spike in homophobic violence, discrimination and the LGBTQ community’s inability to access healthcare and other basic services due to fear.
‘We believe the court should nullify this discriminatory law and pave the way for a more inclusive and equitable society for all Ugandans,’ Grace said in support of the four consolidated petitions that several LGBTQ activists filed.
The plaintiffs include Uganda’s Deputy High Commissioner to South Africa Kintu Nyango, Makerere University Law professors Sylvia Tamale and Busingye Kabumba, veteran journalist Andrew Mwenda, West Budama Northeast MP Fox Odoi and several advocacy groups.
Odoi is Museveni’s former legal advisor.
Petitioners in a pre-hearing conference on Tuesday argue the Anti-Homosexuality Act violates Article 92 of Uganda’s constitution, which bars Parliament from enacting a law that goes against a decision by the country’s Judiciary. This position is in response to the Constitutional Court’s 2014 ruling that nullified a similar anti-homosexuality law.
The plaintiffs also argue the Anti-Homosexuality Act was hurriedly passed within six days instead of 45 days as Parliament’s rules requires and that it was enacted without meaningful public consultation.
‘This hearing is crucial for LGBTQ+ Ugandans as it provides a platform to expose the law’s flaws and its detrimental impact on their lives, amplifies their voices to encourage dialogue about equality, tolerance and acceptance, and it instils hope and empowers the queer individuals to fight for their rights and dignity,’ Grace stated.
His remarks come a day after the U.S. Ambassador to Uganda William Popp defended the Biden-Harris administration’s decision to impose sanctions against some Ugandan officials and announced plans to remove Kampala from Washington’s duty-free trade program for sub-Saharan African countries over the anti-LGBTQ law.
Ugandan Parliament Speaker Anitah Among, who is targeted in the U.S. visa travel ban, on Wednesday disclosed the White House has targeted more than 300 MPs who supported the Anti-Homosexuality Act. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday announced the additional sanctions.
Among and the other MPs hit back at the U.S. and vowed to protect the anti-LGBTQ law ‘with our blood, sweat and souls,’ while cautioning Ugandans opposed to it should ‘leave our country and go to live in the United Kingdom or the United States.’….” Read more at Washington Blade
“Nine weeks into Israel’s war on Hamas, which has killed thousands of Palestinians and reduced entire Gaza neighborhoods to rubble, the US is sticking by its ally’s goal — destroying the Islamist group. But their ambitions for the day after are diverging.
Washington’s plan starts with the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank, returning to Gaza.
In an interview with Bloomberg in his West Bank office, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said his Authority is planning to go back to Gaza with US help and that Hamas might be amenable to abandoning its rejection of Israel after the war.
WATCH: Shtayyeh says Hamas can’t be eradicated by Israel. Source: Bloomberg
‘Hamas before Oct. 7 is one thing and after it is another thing’ and a changed Hamas would be welcome as a partner, he said.
In 2007, Hamas and the Authority fought a civil war in Gaza which ended with the Authority being thrown out, leaving it only in the West Bank. The US says now is the time to restart the creation of a Palestinian state.
The Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demurs on all those points. It considers the Palestinian Authority to be weak and too similar to Hamas in its attitude toward Israel’s legitimacy. It rejects a Palestinian state and seeks the destruction of Hamas.
To the Israeli authorities, Hamas — considered a terrorist group by both the US and European Union — is like the Nazis, requiring a root-and-branch removal and the creation of a new governing structure.
The US says Israel can only be secure if Palestinians have dignity and freedom through a sovereign state. And the only way to get there is through revitalizing the Palestinian Authority.
With the war far from over — Israel says it needs months to destroy miles of Hamas tunnels — the discussion is just getting started.” —Ethan Bronner [Bloomberg]
Palestinian children at a destroyed residential housing block following Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis on Dec. 2. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg
“The Kremlin is rallying support for Vladimir Putin’s election to a fifth presidential term by pitching him as the defender of traditional Russian values against the ‘liberal’ West, as the war in Ukraine grinds on. That’s translating into harsher persecution of LGBT people, growing calls for restrictions on abortion, pressure on women to focus on childbirth rather than careers and boosting patriotic education in schools.” [Bloomberg]
3 Teenagers were convicted in Paris in connection with the killing of a teacher by an Islamist extremist in 2020 that shook France to the core.
“The teacher, Samuel Paty, was beheaded by an 18-year-old after showing caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad to his students to illustrate free speech.”
Read more at Washington Post
“Rishi Sunak backed the UK’s departure from the EU, fueling a rise that ultimately made him prime minister. Now he’s fighting to avoid becoming the latest Conservative leader consumed by the resulting civil war in the governing party. He faces a crucial two weeks if he is to control feuding Tory lawmakers and lead them into a general election expected next year.” [Bloomberg]
“Global investors are taking Africa more seriously. That’s the view of Kenyan President William Ruto, who announced that an investment initiative for the continent he championed has allocated $2.6 billion for clean power projects in just three months. ‘The world is beginning to see Africa as an opportunity, and not as a problematic continent,’ Ruto told Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of the COP28 climate summit in Dubai.” [Bloomberg]
“Argentine President-elect Javier Milei is disappointing supporters as he jettisons key pillars of his radical platform and shows a willingness to abandon close aides at a moment’s notice. Despite displaying pragmatism, those who know him say that as he tackles one of the greatest challenges in his country’s history, his laser focus on the economy to the exclusion of all else, without recourse to trusted advisers, could spell trouble after his Dec. 10 inauguration.” [Bloomberg]
“A key ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threw fresh doubt on NATO’s Nordic expansion after conditioning his support for Sweden’s accession on ‘permanent peace’ between Israelis and Palestinians.” [Bloomberg]
December 8, 2023
Our focus today is the race to dominate artificial intelligence. My colleagues Karen Weise and Cade Metz, who are covering the story from the West Coast, will take it from here. — David Leonhardt
By Karen Weise and Cade Metz
Sam Altman, chief executive of OpenAI. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
A.I.’s big year
“Just before Thanksgiving, a Silicon Valley giant appeared to implode before our eyes. A boardroom coup at OpenAI, the world’s hottest artificial intelligence company, pushed out its charismatic leader, Sam Altman.
At the time, the ouster — and Altman’s roller-coaster ride to reclaim his job as C.E.O. — seemed sudden. In reality, it was more than a decade in the making. A.I. had been simmering in the tech world, as powerful figures poured money into research and fought with one another over heady questions of humanity, philosophy and power.
This week, with our colleagues Mike Isaac and Nico Grant, we published a series recounting the recent history of A.I. and looking ahead to its future. In today’s newsletter, we explain what we learned.
Egos and breakthroughs
Powerful tech leaders — including Altman, Elon Musk and the Google co-founder Larry Page — were developing A.I. systems for years before the technology went mainstream. The men bickered over whether it would end up harming the world; some, including Musk, feared that A.I. would turn dystopian science fiction into reality, with computers becoming smart enough to escape human control.
At the heart of these disagreements was a brain-stretching paradox: The men who said they were most worried about A.I. were among the most determined to create it. They justified that ambition by saying that they alone had the morals and skill to prevent A.I. tools from becoming rogue machines that could endanger humanity.
Eventually, these disputes led them to split off and form their own A.I. labs. Each schism created more competition, which pushed the companies to advance A.I. even faster.
A ‘fatal error’
The newly formed A.I. labs improved their technology over years. But nothing captured the public’s attention like ChatGPT, OpenAI’s chatbot, which debuted last year. It was an enormous hit, attracting millions of users with its ability to write poetry, summarize research and mimic everyday conversation.
Our reporting found that Altman and OpenAI did not appreciate what they were about to unleash when they released ChatGPT. Internally, the company called the chatbot a ‘low key research preview.’ Researchers and engineers at OpenAI were instead focused on developing more advanced technology.
ChatGPT’s popularity supercharged the competition at big tech companies like Google and Meta, Facebook’s parent company, which raced to get their own products into the world.
Though the companies were concerned that their A.I. chatbots were inaccurate or biased, they put those worries to the side — at least for the moment. As one Microsoft executive wrote in an internal email, ‘speed is even more important than ever.’ It would be, he added, an ‘absolutely fatal error in this moment to worry about things that can be fixed later.’
A.I. has since sneaked into daily life, through chatbots and image generators, in the word processing programs you might use at work, and in the seemingly human customer service agents you chat with online to return a purchase. People have already used it to create sophisticated phishing emails, cheat on schoolwork and spread disinformation.
Members of the European Parliament. Frederick Florin/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Speed vs. safety
Though OpenAI was founded as a nonprofit, Altman transformed it into a commercial operation that investors now value at more than $80 billion. As Altman raced to advance the technology, some directors on the nonprofit’s board worried he was not being honest with them and felt they could no longer trust him to prioritize safety.
That one person could be so central to the future of A.I. — and perhaps humanity — is a symptom of the lack of meaningful oversight of the industry.
A.I. systems are advancing so rapidly and unpredictably that even on the rare occasions lawmakers and regulators have tried to tackle them, their proposals quickly become obsolete, as our colleagues Adam Satariano and Cecilia Kang found. For example, European regulators proposed ‘future proof’ rules in mid-2021 that limited how A.I. could be used in sensitive cases, such as in hiring decisions and law enforcement. But the regulations did not contemplate the advances behind ChatGPT, which was released a year and a half later.
The absence of rules has left a vacuum. The leading A.I. companies have proposed some voluntary guidelines — like using watermarks to help consumers spot A.I.-generated material — but it’s not clear how much they will matter.
European regulators this week are in marathon sessions to write the world’s strictest A.I. regulations, and they will be worth watching. In the meantime, companies continue to push ahead. On Wednesday, Google demonstrated a powerful new A.I. system called Gemini Ultra, even though Google hasn’t yet completed its customary safety testing. The company promised it would be out in the world early next year.
Related: Artists are using A.I. to produce or augment their work. Read about one.” [New York Times]
Google launches Gemini AI model
Photo: Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images
“Google unveiled details about Gemini, the next version of its large language model that will power Bard and other products, Axios' Ina Fried reports.
Why it matters: Google is eager to show it can keep up with rivals, especially OpenAI and Microsoft.
Gemini is multimodal — recognizing video, images, text and voice.” [Axios]
McKinsey Cuts New Partner Class by Roughly 35%
“The closely held firm named its new class of partners, and the group is roughly a third smaller than usual, according to people familiar with the matter, in the latest sign that economic conditions have dented demand for high-price consultants.”
READ MORE at Wall Street Journal
U.S. math scores plunge
Data: OECD. (2006 reading scores not available due to test-booklet printing errors.) Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios
“A global exam out today shows U.S. 15-year-olds' math scores lagging way behind their peers in the world's industrialized countries.
U.S. students saw a 13-point drop in 2022 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) math results when compared to the 2018 exam, Axios' Ivana Saric reports.
The U.S. scored above the OECD average in reading and science.
Why it matters: The 2022 PISA edition is the first to take place since the pandemic. It compares the test results of nearly 700,000 students across 81 OECD member states and partner economies.
What works: 31 countries and economies maintained or improved upon their 2018 math scores, including Switzerland and Japan.
Countries that did so shared some common characteristics, including shorter school closures during the pandemic and fewer impediments to remote learning, per the report.
The big picture: Students around the world have suffered historic setbacks in reading and math since COVID.
The setbacks spanned nations rich and poor, big and small, with few making progress.
Context: Multiple studies have highlighted the adverse and stark impact of the pandemic on education.” [Axios]
Weight-loss gold rush
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“More drug companies are racing to join what's been a two-horse race to make blockbuster obesity drugs, snapping up smaller biotechs and vying for a market that could be worth tens of billions in less than a decade.
Why it matters: Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Ozempic have soared in popularity despite high price tags, mixed insurance coverage and a number of unpleasant side effects, Axios' Tina Reed writes.
The market is expected to top $100 billion by 2030 and is ripe for new entrants, as drugmakers struggle to keep up with demand.
Should Medicare ultimately cover weight-loss drugs, that would take things to another order of magnitude.
What's happening: Swiss drugmaker Roche on Monday entered the race with a $2.7 billion acquisition of the California-based biotech Carmot Therapeutics. The deal gives Roche access to two obesity drug candidates.
The big picture: It's just the latest deal by a big drugmaker to add a weight-loss candidate to its development arsenal.
AstraZeneca last month paid $185 million to acquire global development rights for an experimental GLP-1 pill from Chinese biotech Eccogene, with up to $1.8 billion more promised if it meets clinical, regulatory and commercial milestones.
Eli Lilly, which last month became the second to gain approval for a weight-loss drug, in July announced a deal worth up to $1.9 billion to acquire obesity drugmaker Versanis, which is developing a drug that works differently from the appetite-suppressing GLP-1s.
Novo has also continued to acquire biotechs with obesity targets, including Embark Biotech in August.” [Axios]
Pantone picked its color of the year for 2024.
Pantone describes the color as “sensitive but sweet and airy.” (Pantone)
“What is it? Peach Fuzz — Pantone 13-1023 for you color nerds. It’s a mix of pink and orange that’s meant to inspire comfort, recalibration and nurturing.
It’s a milestone: This is the 25th year that the Pantone Color Institute has declared a color for the upcoming year. And it’s a muted step back from 2023’s Viva Magenta.” [Washington Post]
“Lives Lived: Denny Laine was an original member of the Moody Blues. Five years after leaving the band, he became a charter member of a new band, Wings, after getting a call from Paul McCartney. Laine died at 79.” [New York Times]
“Lives Lived: Juanita Castro supported her brother Fidel when he led the uprising that toppled Cuba’s dictator in 1959. But she broke with him over his crackdown on dissent and went on to collaborate with the C.I.A. before fleeing Cuba in 1964. She died at 90.” [New York Times]