The Full Belmonte, 1/27/2023
Consumers, the economy’s main engine, spent at a solid pace of 2.1% in the final three months of last year.
PHOTO: EDUARDO MUNOZ/REUTERS
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.9% annual rate last quarter after a year of high inflation.
“That’s down slightly from a 3.2% annual rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said. Consumer spending helped drive the Q4 gain, while the housing market weakened and businesses cut back their spending on equipment. Jobless claims declined last week, pointing to a still-tight labor market even as several large employers—in the tech industry and beyond—announced job cuts.” [Wall Street Journal]
DA: 5 Memphis cops ‘all responsible’ for Tyre Nichols’ death
By ADRIAN SAINZ and REBECCA REYNOLDS
“MEMPHIS, Tenn. (AP) — Five fired Memphis police officers were charged Thursday with murder and other crimes in the killing of Tyre Nichols, a Black motorist who died three days after a confrontation with the officers during a traffic stop.
Shelby County District Attorney Steve Mulroy told a news conference that although the officers each played different roles in the killing, ‘they are all responsible.’
The officers, who are all Black, each face charges of second-degree murder, aggravated assault, aggravated kidnapping, official misconduct and official oppression.
Video of the Jan. 7 traffic stop will be released to the public sometime Friday evening, Mulroy said. Nichols’ family and their lawyers said the footage shows officers savagely beating the 29-year-old FedEx worker for three minutes in an assault that the legal team likened to the infamous 1991 police beating of Los Angeles motorist Rodney King. His family urged supporters to protest peacefully….” Read more at AP News
Tyre Nichols, 29, who died following a traffic stop in Memphis, Tennessee.
Who else has classified documents?
“Faced with a steady stream of disclosures about improperly kept classified documents, the National Archives on Thursday asked former presidents and vice presidents to look for any sensitive and potentially top-secret material they might have, according to a source familiar with the matter.
One thing to know: In its letter, the archives is asking all former presidents and vice presidents dating back to the Ronald Reagan administration to re-examine their files.
Many former top White House officials already have indicated that they do not have any classified documents in their possession, after reports that President Joe Biden kept such documents in his personal possession from his time as vice president in the Barack Obama administration. Former President Donald Trump and, more recently, his vice president, Mike Pence, also have been found to have such documents in their possession.
A wider problem: The situation underscores how the U.S. system of safeguarding classified presidential documents is in urgent need of improvement, especially during the critical period when one administration hands over the White House keys to another.
Are other former presidents holding classified documents? USA TODAY attempted to call all of the former officials to find out if they have any sensitive material that should be turned over, and to see if they are looking through their files. This story will be updated as additional responses come in.” [USA Today]
A letter from acting archivist of the United States Debra Steidel Wall to former President Donald Trump's legal team is photographed Tuesday, Aug. 23, 2022. The letter details that the National Archives recovered 100 documents bearing classified markings, totaling more than 700 pages, from an initial batch of 15 boxes retrieved from Mar-a-Lago earlier in 2022.
Jon Elswick, AP
“Representative Adam Schiff, a California Democrat who led the first impeachment trial of Trump, is running for Dianne Feinstein’s Senate seat.” [New York Times]
5 women, huge power
Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP
From left are Shalanda Young, the first Black woman to lead the White House Office of Management and Budget ... Senate Appropriations ranking member Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) ... Senate Appropriations chair Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) ... House Appropriations ranking member Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) ... and House Appropriations chair Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas), during an AP interview at the Capitol yesterday.
“Why it matters: It's the first time in history that the four leaders of the two congressional spending committees are women, AP's Mary Clare Jalonick and Seung Min Kim report.
They're now among the most powerful women in Congress. But when they were first elected in the 1990s, they were often overlooked — or talked down to.
Murray recalls being seated on the far edge of the committee dais, with the more senior men making the decisions in the middle.
‘I remember finally just standing up at the end of the table going, 'Excuse me!’ Because you couldn’t get their attention,’ Murray said. ‘Everything was decided in the middle of this table. I think it’s pretty amazing that we’re at the middle of the table now.’ [Axios]
2020 red states have higher murder rates
Reproduced from Third Way. Chart: Axios Visuals
“The murder rates in Trump-voting states from 2020 have exceeded those in Biden-voting states every year since 2000, Axios' Alexi McCammond writes from a new analysis by Third Way, a center-left think tank.
Four reliably red states consistently made the top of the list — Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Missouri.
Why it matters: Republicans have built their party on being the crime-fighting candidates, even as murder rates in red states have outpaced blue states by an average of 23% over the past two decades
Third Way's report analyzed homicide data for all 50 states from 2000 through 2020, using CDC data.
The group used the 2020 presidential election results to characterize ‘red states’ from the ‘blue states.’
The findings build on a previous Third Way report that analyzed murder rates from 2019-20. This time, the analysts write, they wanted ‘to see if this one-year Red State murder epidemic was an anomaly.’
The big picture: In October — just before midterms — a record-high 56% of Americans told Gallup there was more crime where they live,
That included 73% of Republicans and 51% of independents.
Both parties rushed to spend tens of millions of dollars on crime ads that month.
The bottom line: ‘Crime has historically been a very potent political issue,’ said Jim Kessler, Third Way's executive vice president for policy. ‘It’s also very anecdote driven.’ [Axios]
Revealed: Trump secretly donated $1m to discredited Arizona election ‘audit’
Funding for controversial review of state’s vote count in 2020 election can be traced to former president’s Pac
“One of the enduring mysteries surrounding the chaotic attempts to overturn Donald Trump’s defeat in the 2020 presidential battle has been solved: who made a secret $1m donation to the controversial election ‘audit’ in Arizona?
The identity of one of the largest benefactors behind the discredited review of Arizona’s vote count has been shrouded in secrecy. Now the Guardian can reveal that the person who partially bankrolled the failed attempt to prove that the election was stolen from Trump was … Trump.
An analysis by the watchdog group Documented has traced funding for the Arizona audit back to Trump’s Save America Pac. The group tracked the cash as it passed from Trump’s fund through an allied conservative group, and from there to a shell company which in turn handed the money to contractors and individuals involved in the Arizona audit.
Cyber Ninjas, the Florida-based company that led the Arizona audit, disclosed in 2021 that $5.7m of its budget came from several far-right groups invested in the “stop the steal” campaign to overturn Joe Biden’s presidential victory. It was later divulged that a further $1m had supported the audit from an account controlled by Cleta Mitchell, a Republican election lawyer who advised Trump as he plotted to subvert the 2020 election.
But who gave the $1m to Mitchell? In September 2021, as Cyber Ninjas was preparing to deliver its findings, the New York Times reported that unnamed “officials” had denied that Trump had played any part in securing the funds.
Republican leaders of the Arizona senate who asked Cyber Ninjas to carry out the audit also publicly denied that Trump was involved, saying “this absolutely has nothing to do with Trump”.
Documented’s analysis pierces through that denial. Basing its research on corporate, tax and campaign finance filings, as well as emails and text messages obtained by the non-partisan accountability group American Oversight through public records requests, the watchdog has followed the money on its circuitous journey from the former US president’s Pac to the Arizona review….” Read more at The Guardian
Blood donation rules for gay and bisexual men are being relaxed.
“The change: Monogamous gay and bisexual men will no longer be forced to abstain from sex to donate blood under new federal guidelines coming soon.
Why it matters: These rules were created early in the AIDS crisis, and many experts say they’re outdated, homophobic and ineffective at keeping the nation’s blood supply safe.” [Washington Post]
Patterns in mass killings
A woman holds a candle and a flower during a vigil outside Monterey Park (Calif.) City Hall on Tuesday night. Photo: Ashley Landis/AP
“Half of the 173 mass attacks America has seen in recent years were motivated by the attacker's perceived personal grievances — including issues in a relationship or at work, or a personal issue with another person, such as a neighbor.
One-quarter of attackers subscribed to conspiracy theories or hateful ideologies.
That's according to a new report from the Secret Service's National Threat Assessment Center, which analyzed mass attacks and their perpetrators between 2016 and 2020, Axios' Ivana Saric writes.
Almost all the perpetrators were men who acted alone.
Nearly half had a history of domestic violence, misogyny or both.
The bottom line: About three-quarters of attackers had displayed concerning behaviors or shared alarming communications before their attacks.
In two-thirds of cases, these behaviors were ‘so concerning, they should have been met with an immediate response.’” [Axios]
“Russia reacts to news of western tanks. Russia reacted to news that western tanks would be sent to Ukraine from Germany, the United States, and other allies by both downplaying the decision and threatening Ukraine and its allies. ‘The potential it gives to the Ukrainian armed forces is clearly exaggerated. Those tanks will burn just like any others,’ said Dmitri Peskov, spokesperson for the Kremlin. The Russian Embassy in Berlin, however, called the decision to send tanks ‘extremely dangerous’ and said it ‘takes the conflict to a new level of confrontation.’ The Russian embassy claimed that Germany had demonstrated it was ‘not interested in a diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian crisis.’ [Foreign Policy]
“Former employees of Russian propaganda broadcaster RT America have taken over its old studios in downtown D.C. and are ramping up a new media venture, Axios' Lachlan Markay has learned.
Why it matters: RT was a key node in a Russian-backed media apparatus that U.S. intelligence agencies described as integral to Kremlin foreign influence operations.
Its U.S. broadcasting arm announced it would shut down shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
What's happening: Former RT America employee Georgy Zalevskiy formed a new company, GlobalTek, last year after RT America announced its wind-down. Corporate filings list the address of RT America's old Washington office.
In an interview, Zalevskiy confirmed his company is operating out of those studios.” [Axios]
“EU ministers revisit how to limit migration. EU ministers on Thursday discussed how to limit irregular immigration and increase the number of people the European Union sends home. Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson described the number of ‘irregular arrivals as huge’ and reportedly said, ‘We have a very low return rate and I can see we can make significant progress here.’ Reuters reported that Denmark, Latvia, and the Netherlands all called for more pressure on the 20 countries that the European Union finds uncooperative in taking back those who have arrived in Europe without permission and do not have the right to stay. Some said they were open to EU funding for border fences or barriers. Refugee rights advocates argue that the European Union is essentially trying to find ways to violate people’s right to seek asylum.” [Foreign Policy]
Africa is less democratic and safe than a decade ago, study says
Lt. Col. Assimi Goïta, leader of Mali’s ruling junta, attends an independence day military parade in Bamako, Mali, on Sept. 22. (AP)
“A new study of Africa’s 54 countries provides grim reading. It found that much of the continent is less safe and less democratic than it was a decade ago, a marker of worrying political trends that accelerated over the course of the pandemic. A surge in military coups and the spread of armed conflicts now threaten to stall, and even reverse, years of political progress across the region.
The index, which is put out every two years by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, compiles a ranking of quality of overall governance across Africa based on scores allocated to a range of criteria, including development, economic opportunity and political inclusion. According to the analysis, its subcategories measuring democratic participation and ‘security and rule of law’ both deteriorated, with the ‘pace of decline accelerating since 2017.’ An estimated 70 percent of the continent’s population lives in countries that the index classifies as less safe now than in 2012.
The report pointed to 23 successful or attempted coups since 2012, and eight takeovers by juntas since 2019. Mali and Burkina Faso, two West African neighbors once known for their relative political stability, have recently experienced two coups each. ‘This phenomenon of coup d’etats that was common in the ’80s seems to have become fashionable again in certain parts of Africa,’ Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-born British billionaire who has used his wealth to promote democracy and good governance in Africa, told reporters this week.
A decade and a half ago, Ibrahim established an annual prize in his name to be awarded to a democratically elected, former African leader who championed good governance, the rule of law and set an example for leadership to the wider region. The prize came with a hefty $5 million reward, an incentive, it seemed, for the continent’s politicians to care about their legacies. But for the majority of the years since the prize was first announced, Ibrahim’s foundation has chosen not to award it.
Analysts and experts have fretted about democratic decline in Africa for years. The end of the Cold War precipitated a wave of democratization across the continent. According to the rankings of Freedom House, a Washington-based think tank, two-thirds of African states were classified as ‘not free’ in 1989. In 2009, two-thirds were considered ‘free’ or ‘partly free.’
The positive trends did not continue over the past decade, as a host of governments hid behind the fig leaf of electoral democracy even as they consolidated a more autocratic grip. A 2021 report submitted to the European Parliament attempted to map out why: ‘Two sets of reasons account for the fragility of democracies in sub-Saharan Africa. … The first include low socio-economic development, conflict and insecurity; the second include weak institutions, lack of judicial independence, manipulation of electoral laws and constitutional norms, as well as serious limitations of civil and political rights.’
‘In practice, authoritarian regimes have become skilled at using a facade of legality to legitimize their grip on power,’ the report adds.
Then came the pandemic, which, as the Mo Ibrahim Foundation noted, led to ‘a worrying trend of state-backed violence’ along with accelerated rates of violence against civilians and armed conflict. Insurgencies and wars metastasized from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, as well as in regions further south. Where there were not deepening conflicts, there were deepening autocratic regimes.
‘Even before the pandemic, an increasing number of African heads of state had moved to undermine term limits or rig elections to remain in power,’ observed the Council of Foreign Relations, one year into the pandemic. ‘But covid-19 has given them greater leverage, providing further pretext for postponing elections in Somalia and Ethiopia, muzzling opposition figures in Uganda and Tanzania, and imposing restrictions on media across the continent.’
On top of that, the enforcement of pandemic restrictions was often brutal, giving rise to demonstrations in countries including Kenya and South Africa, it adds.
Nevertheless, the desire for greater democracy and stronger government is widespread in Africa, as recent polling indicates. ‘The public’s democratic commitment is undergirded by strong and in some cases growing support for core democratic institutions,’ noted British think tank Chatham House last August. ‘Support for multiparty competition and parliamentary oversight of leaders remains steady, while expectations that governments should be accountable to the courts have increased significantly over the past decade.’
According to the Mo Ibrahim Foundation’s analysis, there have been marked improvements in other continental indicators, including advances in health and education, equality for women and infrastructure for development. But it can’t evade a troubled global moment, where democracy is in decline elsewhere, where climate change wreaks havoc in the world’s poorest and most vulnerable communities, and where the vicissitudes of the pandemic have exposed the ailing, debt-ridden economies of the developing world.
‘We did not cause climate change, but we are hit by it,’ Ibrahim told Reuters in an interview. ‘We did not start the war in Ukraine, but we’re hit by that. We did not start covid, but we get hit by that. Then we have bad governance. We’re responsible for it.’” [Washington Post]
“Long war | Vladimir Putin is preparing a new Russian offensive in Ukraine as early as February or March, while also steeling his country for a conflict with the US and its allies that he expects to last for years, sources say. The president remains convinced Russia’s larger forces and willingness to accept casualties will allow it to prevail despite the military failings so far.” [Bloomberg]
ISIS
“A US military operation killed a senior ISIS leader and 10 members of the terror group in northern Somalia this week, two senior Biden administration officials said on Thursday. Bilal al-Sudani, the ISIS leader killed, was ‘responsible for fostering the growing presence of ISIS in Africa and for funding the group's operations worldwide, including in Afghanistan,’ Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said. No US troops or civilians were killed. It's unusual for the US to carry out an operation against ISIS in Somalia, where military operations have typically focused on al-Shabaab fighters, the dominant terror group in the east African country. Officials said the operation is expected to provide valuable information for the US intelligence community, although they declined to go into specifics.” [CNN]
“U.S. visa ban on those ‘undermining’ Nigerian democracy. The United States announced a visa ban on people it believed to be ‘responsible for, or complicit in, undermining democracy in Nigeria.’ The announcement comes ahead of next month’s general elections in Nigeria. The individuals have not been publicly named. Those who were not named but are found to be ‘undermining democracy’ in the next month may also be deemed ineligible for visas, the U.S. government has warned.” [Foreign Policy]
Israel, Palestinian fighters trade fire after deadly West Bank raid
“Palestinian militants fired rockets and Israel carried out airstrikes as tensions soared following an Israeli raid in the occupied West Bank. The raid killed nine Palestinians, including at least seven militants and a 61-year-old woman. It was the deadliest single incursion in the territory in over two decades. The flare-up in violence poses an early test for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government and casts a shadow on U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s expected trip to the region next week. Palestinian militants fired five rockets at Israel, which carried out a series of airstrikes at what it said were militant targets. There were no immediate reports of casualties. Read our latest reporting on Israel.” [USA Today]
Palestinians burn tires and wave the national flag during a protest against an Israeli military raid in the West Bank city of Jenin, along the border fence with Israel, in east of Gaza City, Thursday, Jan. 26, 2023.
Fatima Shbair, AP
Banks cut off Bed Bath & Beyond’s credit lines.
“The retailer said it doesn’t have the money to repay outstanding loans and continues to explore all strategic alternatives, including bankruptcy. The company is asking landlords for rent reductions and hunting for additional debt or equity. Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines took a $220 million loss in the fourth quarter after its holiday-season meltdown.” [Wall Street Journal]
IOC stands firmly with Russia
“The International Olympic Committee is clearing the way for Russian athletes to compete at the Olympic Games despite that country’s unlawful invasion of Ukraine and the continuing brutality of its war against its neighbor. The IOC Executive Board agreed to allow individual athletes from Russia and its ally Belarus to take part in Olympic events if they are not "actively supporting" Russia’s war in Ukraine. The athletes also must compete under neutral status. “It is becoming increasingly clear that Russia has complete control over the IOC and its leadership,” Global Athlete said in a statement Wednesday, after the IOC announced it was pursuing ways to appease President Vladimir Putin and Russia.” Read more at USA Today
A Russian flag is held above the Olympic Rings at Adler Arena Skating Center during the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia on Feb. 18, 2014.
The Associated Press
“Irreversible damage | Two new articles published in the peer-reviewed journal Science paint a bleak picture of the state of the Amazon rainforest: The critical ecosystem is being damaged at an unprecedented pace. The region, key to the world’s climate system ‘is now perched to transition rapidly from a largely forested to a non-forested landscape,’ writes one set of authors, ‘and the changes are happening much too rapidly for Amazonian species, peoples, and ecosystems to respond adaptively.’” [Bloomberg]
January 27, 2023
By German Lopez
Good morning. The U.S. government classifies tens of millions of documents a year, and experts say the practice is excessive.
The National Archives is asking former presidents and vice presidents to look for classified items.Mark Tenally/Associated Press
Not so confidential
“Classified documents keep turning up in the homes of former presidents and vice presidents. First, law enforcement found hundreds of them in Donald Trump’s home. President Biden’s aides recently gave back classified documents that were found in his office and home, dating to his time as vice president and senator. And last week, Mike Pence’s aides found classified documents in his home.
After all of these discoveries, the National Archives asked former presidents and vice presidents yesterday to look through their personal records for any documents that should not be there.
The three cases have important differences. Notably, Trump resisted efforts to retrieve the documents, while Biden and Pence returned them voluntarily. But they have all raised the public’s awareness of what has long been a government phenomenon: Current and former officials at all levels discover and turn over classified documents several times a year, The Associated Press reported.
Why does this keep happening? One possible reason, experts say, is that too many documents are classified in the first place. The federal government classifies more than 50 million documents a year. It’s difficult, if not impossible, to keep track of all of them. Some get lost and found years later — and many more are likely still out there.
Today’s newsletter will look at how the over-classification of government documents became so widespread.
Playing it safe
The government classifies all kinds of information, including informants’ identities, war plans and diplomatic cables. There are three broad categories of classification: confidential, secret and top secret. Technically, the president decides what is classified. But the job is delegated to cabinet and agency heads, who further delegate, through agency guidelines, to lower-ranked officials.
That system effectively encourages federal officials to take a better-safe-than-sorry approach to classification. The classification of a document reduces the risk that important secret information leaks and leads to trouble, particularly when it concerns national security. But if a document is not classified and is obtained by America’s enemies or competitors, the people who originally handled that information could lose their jobs, or worse.
In many agencies, officials ‘face no downsides for over-classifying something,’ said Oona Hathaway, a professor at Yale Law School and former special counsel at the Pentagon. ‘But if you under-classify something, really dire consequences could come for you.’
So officials tend to play it safe. Of the more than 50 million documents classified every year, just 5 to 10 percent warrant the classification, Hathaway estimated, based on her experience at the Pentagon.
One example of the extremes of classification: In a cable leaked by Chelsea Manning, an official marked details of wedding rituals in the Russian region of Dagestan as ‘confidential’ — as if most such details were not already well known in a region of more than three million people.
Presidents have criticized the classification system, too. ‘There’s classified, and then there’s classified,’ Barack Obama said in 2016. ‘There’s stuff that is really top-secret top-secret, and there’s stuff that is being presented to the president or the secretary of state that you might not want on the transom, or going out over the wire, but is basically stuff that you could get in open-source.’
In 2010, Obama signed the Reducing Over-Classification Act. It didn’t solve the problem, experts said.
The downsides
So what’s the harm? Experts say there are several potential dangers to over-classification.
For one, it keeps potentially relevant information from the public, making it harder for voters and journalists to hold their leaders accountable. One example: Starting in the 2000s, the U.S. ran a highly classified drone program to identify, locate and hunt down suspected terrorists in the Middle East and South Asia. The program’s existence was well known, and the destruction it caused was widely reported. Yet elected officials, including members of Congress briefed on the program, could answer few questions from constituents or reporters about it because the details were classified.
Over-classification can also make it difficult for agencies to share information with others, whether they are other U.S. agencies or foreign partners. ‘There are national security concerns — in terms of information not getting shared that should be,’ said Elizabeth Goitein, senior director of the Brennan Center for Justice’s Liberty and National Security Program.
And, of course, the recent discoveries show how hard it can be to track all of these classified documents. ‘We’ve just overloaded the system,’ Goitein said. ‘And that makes slippage inevitable.’
Related: How the government handles classified information, explained.” [New York Times]
“Lives Lived: Paul La Farge’s novels and short stories defied easy categorization. In works like “Haussmann: Or the Distinction” and “The Night Ocean,” La Farge played with history and with narrative techniques. He died at 52.” [New York Times]