The Full Belmonte, 1/23/2023
Mourning on Lunar New Year
People pay respects at a memorial for Monterey Park mass shooting victims last night. Photo: Allen J. Schaben/L.A. Times via Getty Images
“The shooting deaths of 10 revelers at a dance club in Monterey Park, Calif. — a majority Asian American city east of L.A. — sent a wave of fear through Asian American communities in the region, and cast a shadow over Lunar New Year festivities nationwide.
Saturday night's attack was the deadliest mass shooting in the U.S. since 19 children and two teachers were killed in Uvalde, Texas, last May. (N.Y. Times)
The latest: L.A. County Sheriff Robert Luna announced the assailant was believed to be Huu Can Tran, 72, of Hemet, Calif.
His body was found inside a cargo van with self-inflicted gunshot wounds following a standoff with police in nearby Torrance, Calif.
Luna said Tran was the only suspect in the Star Ballroom Dance Studio shooting and a second incident shortly after in the nearby city of Alhambra, where two civilians disarmed the suspect.
Police use armored vehicles to surround the van where the suspect's body was found yesterday in Torrance, Calif. Photo: KABC via Reuters
The sheriff said: ‘We still are not clear on the motive.’
The suspect was carrying what Luna described as a semi-automatic pistol with an extended magazine. A second handgun was discovered in the van where Tran died.” [Axios]
Why Biden chose Zients
Jeff Zients at the White House in 2021. Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/AP
“Former White House COVID czar Jeff Zients is expected to be President Biden's next chief of staff — replacing Ron Klain, who'll leave shortly after the State of the Union address on Feb. 7, Axios' Hans Nichols, Sophia Cai and Erin Doherty report.
Why it matters: Zients will have to guide the West Wing through Biden's likely re-election campaign, with congressional Republicans unleashing a battery of investigations into the administration.
Zients, 56, was co-chair of the Biden transition team before becoming COVID response coordinator.
He worked with then-vice-president Biden as director of the National Economic Council during the Obama administration, and was also acting director of the Office of Management and Budget.
So he has the skill set for a possible recession.
Between the lines: Zients, a person familiar with the selection said, is known as a master implementer — a priority for the White House.
Zients' longstanding relationship with Biden, his senior advisers, senior White House staff and Cabinet is also a key component.
Zients also has private-sector experience: A successful management consultant, he ran the Advisory Board Company alongside David Bradley before taking it public and netting tens of millions of dollars, reports The Washington Post, which scooped Zients' selection
He's low-key — ambitious but not a knife-fighter.” [Axios]
Biden
“The FBI found more classified materials at President Biden's Wilmington, Delaware, home on Friday. The discoveries have emboldened congressional Republicans and rattled some Democrats, including Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin who agreed that Biden has lost the ‘high ground’ in criticism over classified materials. Following the latest search, the DOJ took ‘six items consisting of documents with classification markings and surrounding materials, some of which were from the President's service in the Senate and some of which were from his tenure as Vice President,’ Bob Bauer, the president's personal attorney, said in a statement. Separately, Jeff Zients, who ran Biden's Covid-19 response effort and served in high-ranking roles in the Obama administration, is expected to replace Ron Klain as the next White House chief of staff. Klain is expected to step down in the coming weeks.” [CNN]
Donald Trump plans campaign stops as MAGA forces threaten to upend vote for RNC chair
“After two months of social media, campaign meetings and political struggles, 2024 presidential candidate Donald Trump is preparing to return to the public stage with messages aimed at potential Republican opponents – and potential criminal prosecutors. Meanwhile, the race for Republican National Convention leadership will be decided on Friday by secret ballot as Republican officials from all 50 states gather in Southern California. Friday’s vote serves as the latest high-profile leadership test for a deeply divided Republican Party grappling with questions about its future and Trump’s influence.” Read more at USA Today
Trump also enters a new campaign phase as prosecutors in Atlanta and Washington consider whether to seek indictments over his handling of classified information and efforts to overturn his loss of the 2020 election to President Joe Biden.
Gerald Herbert, AP
“The risk has never been higher that the world’s largest economy could default on its national debt for the first time.
The US government has reached its legal borrowing limit — $31.381 trillion — and far-right Republicans in the House are demanding concessions from the White House, such as spending cuts, in exchange for lifting the ceiling, as they have previously over the years.
Key reading:
White House Says Biden Won’t Negotiate in McCarthy Debt Talks
Treasury Has About $500 Billion of Headroom After Debt Limit Hit
What’s the Debt Ceiling, and Will the US Raise It?: QuickTake
McConnell Debt Pledge May Sap McCarthy’s Push for Spending Cuts
President Joe Biden rejects reducing expenditures while warning a default would mean ‘calamity.’ Analysts say it could destabilize global bond markets.
Others including Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell say a deal is inevitable, and Biden has agreed to at least chat about it with new Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The Treasury Department has about $500 billion of extraordinary measures it can use to allow the US to dodge a payments default while Congress hashes out a deal.
Still, with compromise a scarce commodity in the capital, it will be a Herculean task to find a middle ground acceptable to both the Biden administration and the Donald Trump wing of the House GOP.
One jokey idea making the rounds is that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen can make the whole thing go away by simply minting a $1 trillion coin and depositing it at the Federal Reserve. So far she’s behaving as if the debt limit is real and requires congressional action.
So how does it end? Someone blinks, before or after a default, which could come some time in the third quarter of this year. Or Biden sides with liberals who argue the limit ought to be ignored as unconstitutional and keep on borrowing.
Risky? Definitely. Biden is also embroiled in a controversy over the discovery of classified documents in his office and home and his popularity is falling in opinion polls.
But as he tries fire up his political base before an expected bid for reelection next year, there might not be a better play.” [Bloomberg] — Alex Wayne
Biden and McCarthy. Source: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
Tax refunds
“The IRS will start accepting 2022 federal income tax returns beginning today. Of course, you have several months to send in your documents before the April 18 deadline -- but there may be a few things you can do now to increase the amount of your refund or reduce the amount you will owe. First, review your last year's return. Refund amounts might be very different than they were last year because several popular tax breaks have changed since you filed in 2021. It's also important to make sure you claimed all the enhanced tax breaks you were eligible for. If you didn't claim them, you can file an amended return. Among other strategies, there's also still time to make certain contributions that may be deductible. Or, if you simply need more time to file, anyone can apply for -- and will automatically be granted -- a six-month extension until October 16 if the proper documentation is completed.” [CNN]
Egg prices
“High prices are driving an increase in attempts to smuggle eggs into the US from Mexico, according to border officials. ‘The San Diego Field Office has recently noticed an increase in the number of eggs intercepted at our ports of entry,’ director of field operations Jennifer De La O said in a tweet. ‘Failure to declare agriculture items can result in penalties of up to $10,000,’ she said. The rise in attempted egg smuggling can be attributed to the spiking cost of eggs in the US, a Customs and Border Protection specialist told CNN. A massive outbreak of deadly avian flu among American chicken flocks has caused egg prices to skyrocket, climbing more than 11% from November to December and nearly 60% annually, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.” [CNN]
This pandemic winter has been nowhere near as bad as the previous two.
Emergency department visits for covid-19, flu and RSV. (The Washington Post)
“What to know: Doctors were braced for a “tripledemic” of the coronavirus, RSV and flu, but emergency room visits for the three viruses declined after peaking last month, new data shows.
Why? Most people have some covid immunity from shots and previous infections. However, experts are still worried about the spread of the immune-evading XBB.1.5 subvariant.” [Washington Post]
Ukraine
“Western leaders are putting pressure on Germany to send Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on allies to help bolster his country's defense against Russia's invasion. Amid growing frustration at Berlin's indecision over whether to dispatch its tanks to Ukraine, Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki criticized Germany for ‘wasting time’ and announced plans to build a coalition of countries ready to send advanced weaponry to Kyiv. ‘Ukraine and Europe will win this war -- with or without Germany,’ Morawiecki said. ‘However, it is up to Germany whether they want to join the mission of stopping Russia's barbarism, or whether they will watch it passively, dooming themselves to being recorded on the wrong side of history.’” [CNN]
Ukraine war changed energy markets forever
Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios
“Nearly a year after Russia's invasion, the Ukraine crisis has permanently reshaped the global energy system and brought severe economic pain, writes Ben Geman, author of Axios Generate, our daily energy newsletter.
Why it matters: The worst-case scenarios haven't come to pass, thanks to a mix of EU policies, Vladimir Putin's miscalculations and pure luck. But the impact is apparent on every facet of the market, from natural gas to oil to low-carbon energy.
Europe's heavy dependence on Russian gas, which once provided 40% of EU supplies, has been rapidly severed. Now it only accounts for about 14.4% of EU supplies, per S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Putin misjudged his ability to wield Russia's massive gas and oil exports to Europe as a geopolitical weapon.
‘Russia's days as an energy superpower are ebbing away,’ energy historian and analyst Dan Yergin said.
Luck was a factor, with unusually mild weather that has cut heating demand.
‘Widespread shortages, which were once legitimately feared, have not materialized,’ writes Financial Times energy editor David Sheppard in a column titled ‘Vladimir Putin is losing the energy war.’
Reality check: The crisis brought severe economic pain to Europe, hammering consumers and energy-hungry industries, and beyond.
More broadly, it has helped push up energy prices everywhere and boost food prices.” [Axios]
“Netanyahu fires Deri. Days after the Israeli high court ruled that Aryeh Deri was not fit to be in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet and needed to be removed, Netanyahu has complied. However, Netanyahu said he made the move “with a heavy heart, with great sorrow” and vowed to find “any legal way whereby you can continue to contribute to the State of Israel.” Deri, for his part, will continue to lead his party, Shas, and was at a meeting of coalition heads shortly after his firing.
The court ruling and Deri’s firing comes the same weekend as tens of thousands protested, again, against changes proposed by Netanyahu’s government, under justice minister Yariv Levin, that would weaken the country’s judiciary. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan reportedly raised the issue of judicial overhaul with Netanyahu during their meeting last week.” [Foreign Policy]
“New PM for New Zealand. Following Jacinda Ardern’s surprise resignation last week, a replacement prime minister has emerged: Chris Hipkins, a Labour Party member and the minister of police, education, and public service. Members of his party voted unanimously to endorse him on Sunday (he was also the only candidate to come forward to replace Ardern). Hipkins, 44, called the abuse that Ardern endured from ‘a small minority’ of New Zealanders ‘abhorrent’ and added that, while it does not represent what New Zealand is, all men are responsible for speaking out against misogyny.
He has named Carmel Sepuloni his deputy; she will be the person of Pasifika descent to hold that position. Hipkins is expected to be sworn in on Wednesday. New Zealand will have a general election this fall. At the moment, Labour is lagging behind the Conservative opposition in the polls.” [Foreign Policy]
“India blocks Modi doc. India’s government blocked the airing of a BBC documentary that examined Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership during the Gujarat riots of 2002, when Modi was chief minister of that state. Sharing video clips of the documentary or links to the documentary on social media is banned, too. The documentary, titled India: The Modi Question, essentially makes the case that Modi had police ignore the violence that left 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, dead. The Indian government denounced the documentary as ‘hostile propaganda and anti-India garbage.’ The first part of the series aired in the United Kingdom last week, and the second will air there this coming Tuesday. The BBC defended the documentary, saying it was ‘committed to highlighting important issues from around the world.’” [Foreign Policy]
“Lula fires army chief. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, better known as Lula, fired his country’s army chief two weeks after protesters and supporters of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, stormed government buildings. Lula said he believed that members of the army had acted in concert with protesters, and so sacked General Julio Cesar de Arruda, who had been in the role since Dec. 30—very shortly before Bolsonaro’s term as president came to an end. Thirty-nine people have been charged so far for invading government buildings.” [Foreign Policy]
“Covid toll | China said its Covid-related death toll topped more than 12,600 in the week before the Lunar New Year holiday, while a top health official said about 80% of the population had been infected since virus controls were abruptly dismantled late last year. Officials in the country of 1.4 billion have come under fire for dramatically narrowing its definition of a Covid-19 death and halting daily caseload reports.” [Bloomberg]
“Tax bill | The whiff of scandal returned to the UK’s ruling party after Conservative Party Chairman Nadhim Zahawi said that he’d been careless with his tax affairs, a case that’s becoming a distraction for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The admission by Zahawi, a former chancellor of the exchequer, followed a weekend report that he agreed last month to pay a penalty to tax authorities as part of a £4.8 million settlement.” [Bloomberg]
Labor's popularity isn't netting members
Check out this pair of stats:
Data: Gallup. Chart: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals
“Union popularity in the U.S. (above) is the highest since the 1960s, fueled by high-profile organizing at Amazon and Starbucks.
But data from the Labor Department last week showed that at the same time, union members as a share of workers hit an all-time low:
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Axios Visuals
Why it matters: The reasons include institutional labor's missteps, well-funded corporate pushback, and weak federal/local laws have all helped suppress U.S union membership, Axios' Emily Peck and Nathan Bomey write.
Organizers are ‘blowing this opportunity,’ said Jon Hiatt, former general counsel at the AFL-CIO.
He said they need to do more to support workers organizing on their own, and more to help newly organized workers land contracts.
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals
What's happening: Critics say that Big Labor hasn't adapted to the new realities of business in the modern era.
‘They're organizing the same way they always have,’ said Kate Bronfenbrenner, a professor at Cornell's School of Industrial and Labor Relations.
Between the lines: Companies are spending hundreds of millions of dollars fighting organizing efforts — with little to fear from the National Labor Relations Board, which can only levy weak penalties when companies illegally move to fire organizers, or push back in other ways.
One legal catalyst was a 5-4 ruling by the Supreme Court in 2018, which said that unions could no longer force workers to pay dues.
Another factor: The public sector has lost workers amid a labor shortage. The unionization rate in that area dropped from 33.9% in 2018, to 33.1% in 2022, an all-time low.
The AFL-CIO celebrated an overall increase in members — 273,000 added.
‘This is a watershed moment,’ Steve Smith, AFL-CIO spokesperson, said in a statement to Axios. ‘This is the moment to go big and be bold.’” [Axios]
“China has adopted rules restricting digital deepfakes, as other countries struggle to balance public trust and freedom of speech.” [New York Times]
A face covered by a wireframe, which is used to create a deepfake image.Reuters TV, via Reuters
NFL's final 4
Screenshot: CBS Sports via Twitter
“The Bill's Damar Hamlin is making a remarkable recovery and attended yesterday's playoff game in Buffalo, waving to fans from a stadium suite.
The crowd erupted when an image of the recovering Hamlin filled the massive screens at the end zones. Fans turned toward the glass-enclosed suite and cheered, AP reports.
Hamlin stood and raised his arms as if saluting the crowd. He ended by forming a heart sign with his hands, his signature gesture.
But the Bills' season ended with a snowy 27-10 rout by Cincinnati.
Conference championship games are next Sunday:
NFC: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, 3 p.m. EST, Fox.
AFC: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. EST, CBS.
The winners will play in the Super Bowl on Feb. 12 in Glendale, Ariz., at the home stadium of the Arizona Cardinals.
Fun fact: The Bengals haven't lost since Halloween.” [Axios]
How pickups ballooned
A 1970s-era Ford F-150 compared to a modern version. Graphic: Will Chase/Axios
“Sales of huge pickups are sustaining carmakers and bringing in record profits. Yet pedestrian and road safety advocates say today's massive trucks are a hazard, given their size, weight, and driver blind spots.
In a new Axios Visuals special project, Axios' Will Chase, Jared Whalen and Joann Muller look back over the past 50 years to examine the societal changes behind pickups' ever-increasing size.
America has a unique love affair with pickup trucks — the Ford F-150 has been the best-selling vehicle in the U.S. for more than 40 years.
In the 1980s, about half of pickup trucks were categorized as small or midsize. But by the 2010s, small pickups had nearly vanished as Americans increasingly bought into the big-truck lifestyle.
As pickups transitioned from workhorses to lifestyle vehicles, their design shifted accordingly: Cabs expanded to accommodate more passengers, while beds shrank.
The first generation of F-150s was 36% cab and 64% bed by length. By 2021, the ratio flipped — 63% cab and 37% bed.
Graphic: Will Chase/Axios
Between the lines: Survey data from vehicle research firm Strategic Vision shows a third of today’s pickup owners rarely or never use their truck for hauling, while two-thirds rarely or never use it for towing.
Instead, experts say, much of the big pickup mania is being driven by consumers' self-image.
The firm surveys owners each year about the character traits they associate with their vehicles.
Two words set F-150 owners apart: ‘powerful’ and ‘rugged.’
Graphic: Rahul Mukherjee/Axios
Reality check: One result of supersized trucks is greater risks to pedestrians and other drivers.
Drivers of today’s trucks sit much higher, creating a blind spot where small children or wheelchair users are hidden from view.
The other side: Ford says ‘safety is a top priority,’ and points to safety-related technologies — including pedestrian detection sensors, automatic emergency braking and 360-degree cameras.
The 2022 F-150 earned a ‘top safety pick’ rating from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.
What's next: Pickups have probably maxed out in terms of size, but are still evolving to keep up with changing lifestyles.
Now that they're going electric, many offer capabilities and bonus features that aren’t available from gasoline or diesel trucks — better torque and faster acceleration, and the ability to power a worksite, campsite, or tailgate party without burning gas.” [Axios]
“Lives Lived: Betty Lee Sung was a pioneering scholar of the Asian American diaspora. She died at 98.” [New York Times]