The Full Belmonte, 12/29/2023
Trump
“Maine's top election official has removed former President Donald Trump from the state's 2024 primary ballot based on the 14th Amendment's ‘insurrectionist ban.’ The decision makes Maine the second state to disqualify Trump from office, after the Colorado Supreme Court handed down its own stunning ruling that removed him from the ballot earlier this month. Trump's team said they intend to file an appeal. The development is a victory for Trump's critics, who believe his role in the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, violated the 14th Amendment. Ratified after the Civil War, the 14th Amendment says American officials who ‘engage in’ insurrection can't hold future office. Most legal experts believe the US Supreme Court will weigh in on the issue for the entire country in the coming months.” [CNN]
Screenshot: CNN
California’s secretary of state declined to remove Donald Trump’s name from the primary ballot after requests to disqualify him.
“Secretary of State Shirley Weber, a Democrat, had indicated in recent days that she was inclined to keep Mr. Trump on the ballot based on her interpretation of California law.”
Read more at New York Times
“What other states are debating Trump’s eligibility? Cases are still pending in Alaska, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, Wyoming, Texas, Wisconsin, Vermont, New York, New Jersey, West Virginia, Virginia and South Carolina, according to a tracker published by Lawfare.” [The Hill]
Globe passes 8 billion
Data: Census Bureau. Chart: Axios Visuals
“The world population on New Year's Day will be just over 8 billion — up from 7.9 billion a year ago, the Census Bureau projected yesterday.
That's an increase of 75 million, or 0.95%.
The forecast says that on New Year's Day, the U.S. population will be nearly 336 million — up nearly 2 million (0.53%) from a year ago.
That's about half the global growth rate.
What's next: If the current pace continues through the decade, the 2020s will be the slowest-growing decade in U.S. history, William Frey, a Brookings demographer, told AP.
Previously, the slowest-growing decade was in the aftermath of the Great Depression in the 1930s.” [Axios]
It's getting harder for the public to get public information
“A collaboration between The Associated Press and CNHI News has found it’s getting harder for the public to access information at the local government level in many states, including at school districts, townships and county boards. Open government advocates say high fees, delays and outright refusals from local governments are often the cause. Read more.
Why this matters:
Few states compile data on public records requests, and laws governing open records differ by state, making a comprehensive analysis difficult. However, a review by David Cuillier, director of the Brechner Freedom of Information Project, from data provided by nonprofit news site MuckRock found that between 2010 and 2021, local governments’ compliance with records requests dropped by 21%.
Researchers say local agencies lack the staffing and infrastructure to process records requests. There has also been a decline of in local media institutions, which have limited resources to wage costly legal battles over records access.
Incidents of governments suing journalists and residents for making records requests also have become more common and accessing local government meetings is growing more difficult. Elected officials are discussing significant public business in closed sessions, observers say, and in some regions, they’re engaging in more combative behavior with constituents.” [AP News]
The Justice Department warned it will sue Texas over a new immigration law.
“What to know: The law, set to take effect in March, gives local police and judges the authority to arrest and deport undocumented immigrants, typically a federal power.
Zooming out: Immigration policy is a flash point in the 2024 elections, particularly in border states, as record numbers of migrants are crossing into the U.S. from Mexico.”
Read this story at Washington Post
“A federal judge approved Georgia’s voting maps after lawmakers added a majority-Black congressional district.” [New York Times]
Nikki Haley is facing a backlash for her comments about the Civil War.
“What’s happening? Haley didn’t mention slavery when asked this week about the cause of the war. Yesterday, following criticism, she said the Civil War was ‘about slavery.’
Why it matters: Haley is the leading alternative to Trump in the Republican presidential race. Her remarks about the Civil War have rocked her campaign.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Poll: Asian Americans face rampant bias
Data: Pew Research Center. Chart: Axios Visuals
“Asian Americans continue to face widespread discrimination, which is exacerbated by fears that the broader public doesn't particularly care, Axios' Hope King writes from a new Pew Research Center study.
Why it matters: Asian Americans are among the country's fastest-growing racial or ethnic groups. But Asian Americans have historically been ‘invisible’ in society, Norman Chen, CEO of The Asian American Foundation, a national nonprofit, told Axios.
By the numbers: In the largest survey of its kind, Pew asked 7,000 U.S. adults of Asian descent about their experiences with racism and discrimination.
57% say discrimination is a major problem. 63% say the issues they face receive ‘too little attention.’
The findings: ‘For many Asian Americans, discrimination experiences are not just single events, but instead come in several often-overlapping forms,’ Pew writes.
The survey found that Asian Americans ‘experience discrimination in three broad ways: Those related to being treated as a foreigner (even if they were born in the U.S.); being seen as a model minority; and other discrimination incidents in day-to-day encounters or because of their race or ethnicity.’
Between the lines: Culturally and historically, Asian Americans kept their heads down — focusing on setting down roots, building shelter and making a living, Chen told us. That leaves less time to get active in societal issues.” [Axios]
Election officials see new threats
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
“Election officials see a growing list of security threats — foreign and domestic — ahead of the 2024 election.
Why it matters: Among what is giving rise to fears are the potential for cyberattacks, and the possibility of equipment problems or human errors being amplified by activists trying to undermine the outcome, AP reports.
New risks have developed since the 2020 election:
Former President Trump and allies are making fraud claims a central part of their message.
Election interference from Russia, China and Iran is likely, Microsoft said last month.
Election offices are also facing a staffing shortage:
The turmoil of the past several years has contributed to a wave of retirements and resignations.” [Axios]
Gypsy Rose Blanchard was released from prison.
“Who is she? A Missouri woman who said she persuaded her boyfriend to kill her abusive mother, who made her pretend for years that she was suffering from serious illnesses.
Yesterday: She was let out on parole eight years after her mother’s killing, having served most of her 10-year sentence. Blanchard told The Post she regrets her mother’s death.”
Read this story at Washington Post
More states are deciding home buyers should know about flood risks.
“Where? North Carolina, South Carolina, New York and New Jersey have adopted stricter rules this year for home sellers to disclose whether a property is at risk of flooding.
Expect more of this: Flood risks are surging across the country because of climate change. These rules will mean fewer buyers face catastrophic surprises.
In related news: Massive waves are pummeling the California coast this week.”
Read this story at Washington Post
California waves
“A powerful offshore storm is driving towering waves into the California coastline, triggering flooding and warnings of damaging swells after several people were injured by a wave along Ventura Beach on Thursday. At least one large wave crashed over a barrier and pummeled cars as drivers tried to speed away. Nearly 20 people were briefly swept away in the incident and eight people were taken to the hospital, Ventura officials said. Much of the West Coast is under flood warnings and high-surf alerts through the weekend due to the likelihood of high water and dangerous rip currents.” [CNN]
Gaza
“The United Nations said that around 150,000 people in central Gaza have ‘nowhere to go’ after Israeli forces warned residents that they must urgently leave. This comes as Israel's military is expanding its operations in southern Gaza and is battling Hamas with snipers and tank fire in the Khan Younis area. Meanwhile, in a rare acknowledgment of fault, Israel's military said it regretted causing ‘unintended harm’ to civilians as a result of air strikes in central Gaza on December 24. About 70 people were killed in the strikes, according to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry. The number of people killed in Gaza since October 7 has surpassed 21,300, with nearly 60,000 people injured, the Health Ministry said.” [CNN]
Rising tension between Biden, Bibi
Benjamin Netanyahu visits Gaza on Dec. 25. Photo: Avi Ohayon/Israeli Government Press Office via AP
“President Biden had a difficult conversation last weekend with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel's decision to withhold part of the tax revenue it collects for the Palestinian Authority, Axios' Barak Ravid scoops.
A U.S. official said this part of last Saturday's call between the two leaders was one of the most difficult and ‘frustrating’ conversations Biden has had with Netanyahu since the beginning of the war in Gaza.
Why it matters: It's a sign of the growing tension between the leaders.
Catch up quick: The tax revenues Israel collects for the Palestinian Authority under an agreement between the parties are a major source of income for the PA, which is already in a financial crisis.
Israel's far-right ultranationalist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich decided to suspend the transfer of all of the tax revenue funds after the Hamas terrorist attack.
But the Israeli government said that it would transfer all the funds except for those it says go to Hamas-run Gaza.
The Palestinian Authority has refused to accept a partial transfer of the funds, raising concerns in the Biden administration about a potential economic collapse.
What's happening: The Biden administration has been pressing the Israeli government to release the Palestinian revenues.
The administration fears an economic collapse of the PA could lead to a violent escalation in the occupied West Bank.
Behind the scenes: Saturday's 45-minute call focused on the next phase of Israel's ground operation, Israeli and U.S. officials said.
Toward the end of the call, Biden raised his concerns about the withheld Palestinian tax revenues.
According to the officials, Biden asked Netanyahu to accept a proposal that the Israeli prime minister raised himself several weeks ago: to transfer the withheld tax revenues to Norway for safekeeping until an arrangement can be found that will assuage Israel's concerns that the funds could reach Hamas.
The Palestinian Authority accepted this proposal.
Our sources say Netanyahu backtracked and said he doesn't think this is a good idea anymore. He told Biden he doesn't trust the Norwegians.
Biden pushed back and said the U.S. trusts Norway's proposal.
According to U.S. and Israeli officials, Biden told Netanyahu that he should face the hardliners in his coalition on this issue — like Biden is dealing with political pressure from Congress about the war in Gaza.
After a few minutes of discussion, Biden told Netanyahu he expects him to solve this issue, adding that ‘this conversation is over’ and ended the call, according to the U.S. official and source with knowledge of the call.
‘The feeling was that the president is going out on a limb for Bibi every day — and when Bibi needs to give something back and take some political risk he is unwilling to do it,’ one U.S. official said.” [Axios]
Ukraine
Fires broke out in several warehouses in Kyiv. Credit: Reuters
“Russia launched its biggest air attack on Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion, the Ukrainian military said, with a barrage of strikes reported across the country today. The wave of attacks began overnight and struck nationwide, with blasts reported in the capital Kyiv, the central city of Dnipro, the eastern city of Kharkiv, the southeastern port of Odesa, and the western city of Lviv — far from the frontlines. At least 12 people were killed and dozens more were injured, Ukrainian officials said. The massive overnight assault comes just days after Ukraine struck a Russian Navy landing ship in Crimea, causing severe damage to the vessel in another blow to Moscow's Black Sea fleet.” [CNN]
“A request to a D.J. for a Ukrainian song and a photo with a blue and yellow scarf have been grounds for prosecution under Russia’s crackdown on antiwar speech.” [New York Times]
“A death in the spotlight: South Korean star Lee Sun-kyun's family bid him farewell in a private funeral today, as public opinion is divided over the public glare many believe he was subjected to since he was put under investigation for drug use.” [BBC]
Wine in a store in London. Neil Hall/EPA, via Shutterstock
“Drink up: Free from the E.U.’s rules on measurements, the U.K. will once again allow pubs to sell pints of wine. [New York Times]
In 2023, the Saudis' stunning investments made the sports industry forget all about ‘sportswashing’ concerns
“At the dawn of 2023, the specter of Saudi Arabia’s growing influence on pro golf and other sports was a moral conundrum and a threat to the multibillion-dollar industry itself. It’s a different conversation now, virtually devoid of concern about the supposed menace of “sportswashing” and the line between right and wrong. The Saudis now also have big investments in or are eyeing Formula One racing, cricket’s Indian Premier League and pro tennis. Read more.
Key events:
Two major events sparked the change: The PGA Tour announced intentions to get into business with the Saudi group behind rival LIV Golf, which it earlier labeled as a threat. Then Jon Rahm, the world’s third-ranked player and an early resister of LIV, signed a contract with them reported in the neighborhood of $500 million.
FIFA, soccer’s governing body, cleared the way for the Saudis to host the 2034 World Cup.
The Saudis are looking to invest some $5 billion into cricket’s Indian Premier League with an eye on expanding it into other countries.” [AP News]
Israel Warns Hezbollah, Lebanon Over Border Fighting
Israeli rocket launchers are deployed in the Upper Galilee in northern Israel near the border with Lebanon on Dec. 28.Jalaa Marey/AFP
“Israel has warned that it will act to remove Hezbollah from the Lebanese border should the group’s attacks continue. Israeli Minister without portfolio Benny Gantz said ‘[t]he situation on Israel’s northern border demands change,’ and that ‘[t]he stopwatch for a diplomatic solution is running out.’
‘If the world and the Lebanese government don’t act in order to prevent the firing on Israel’s northern residents, and to distance Hezbollah from the border, the IDF [Israeli Defense Forces] will do it,’ Gantz said.
Cross-border attacks have been ongoing, and escalating, since Oct. 8, the day after Hamas’s attack on Israel. Gantz’s threats—to say nothing of the fighting itself—have fed concerns that Israel’s retaliatory war on the Gaza Strip could turn into a regional conflict.
Lebanese authorities have reported more than a dozen casualties from cross-border fighting, and three people were killed by an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon this week. Since the start of the war, three Lebanese journalists have also been killed by Israeli airstrikes. Four Israeli civilians and eight Israeli soldiers have been killed so far in these clashes, and Israel has restricted civilians from entering the area up to 2.5 miles from the border with Lebanon. Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, head of the IDF’s northern command, said his country’s northern forces were ‘in a state of very high readiness.’
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned earlier this month that Israel would ‘single-handedly turn Beirut and South Lebanon, not far from here, into Gaza and Khan Younis [Gaza’s second-largest city]’ if Hezbollah launched an all-out war against Israel. Hezbollah is an Iran-supported militant organization that the United States and Israel have designated as a terrorist organization. Netanyahu also recently vowed that the war in Gaza would continue for months; most Israelis—about 76 percent, in a recent poll—want him to resign.
But some have wondered whether Israel has the strategic ability to handle a broader war, with one former Israeli national security advisor telling the New York Times that Israel’s plan is ‘vague.’ Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron said, ‘I think that we have reached a moment when the Israeli authorities will have to define more clearly what their final objective is. The total destruction of Hamas? Does anybody think that’s possible? If it’s that, the war will last 10 years.’
Fighting in Gaza continues, and Israel has expanded its ground campaign into urban refugee camps in central Gaza. International warnings are growing around not just the rising death toll from bombardment and Israel’s ground campaign, but also the peril of deteriorating daily living conditions: According to Thomas White, the Gaza director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, every day is a struggle for finding food at water. The U.N. agency has said that 40 percent of Gaza is at risk of famine.” [Foreign Policy]
“Polish president, state government fight over state media. The new Polish government’s push to reform state media after eight years of populist Law and Justice Party rule is facing resistance. Critics of the party said that an overhaul was necessary, and that Polish state media had served as little more than a mouthpiece for the government. But Polish President Andrzej Duda, a Law and Justice ally, vetoed the government’s public media budget last week.
In response, the new culture minister, Bartlomiej Sienkiewicz, announced, ‘Due to the decision of the President of the Republic of Poland to suspend financing of public media, I decided to put into liquidation the [state-run media] companies Telewizja Polska SA, Polskie Radio SA and Polska Agencja Prasowa SA.’ The liquidation process is intended to protect the organizations while they’re deprived of funding, and will, according the government, allow the country to go ahead with the restructuring by appointing liquidators.
Duda’s office said the new culture minister was acting like ‘a typical aggressor,’ while Law and Justice lawmaker Joanna Lichocka said on social media that ‘Tusk’s government is destroying the Polish media.”” [Foreign Policy]
The killing of Israeli hostages by Israeli forces in Gaza was preventable, a military probe found.
“The three men were shot after they emerged from a building, shirtless and waving a white flag, on Dec. 15. Hostages’ families say Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government hasn’t done enough to secure the release of the approximately 240 captives abducted by Hamas and other attackers during the Oct. 7 assaults. The investigation’s findings were transmitted to Israel soldiers in the field to better prepare them for possible future encounters with hostages, Israeli military said. More than 100 of the militant group’s hostages were freed in November in exchange for Israel releasing 240 Palestinian prisoners.” [Wall Street Journal]
“Blinken, AMLO discuss migration. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador met to discuss border crossings—and, in particular, how to curb them. Blinken said on social media site X, formerly known as Twitter, that the two discussed ‘shared challenges,’ including ‘unprecedented irregular migration flows.’ López Obrador, for his part, posted that both sides came to ‘important agreements,’ though they were light on details.
A senior Biden official was quoted by the AFP as saying, ‘We were really impressed by some of the new actions that Mexico is taking, and we have seen in recent days a pretty significant reduction in border crossings.’ Mexican Foreign Minister Alicia Bárcena told U.S. and Mexican officials that negotiations focused on economic conditions and the ‘structural causes of migration.’
Two million people were apprehended at the U.S. southern border in both the 2022 and 2023 fiscal years, and Blinken’s Mexico City meeting coincided with a joint virtual press conference held by the mayors of New York City, Denver, and Chicago to address what they have described as a ‘crisis’ of migration in their cities. On Wednesday, New York City Mayor Eric Adams signed an executive order that says bus charter companies must give 32 hours of warning before migrant arrivals in the city. It also limits the hours that the buses can arrive.” [Foreign Policy]
“Prague gunman confesses more killings. The Czech university student who carried out a mass shooting at Charles University in Prague last week confessed to two additional earlier murders. According to police, the 24-year-old had left a letter at this home in which he confessed to a previous killing of an infant and a father in a forest near the outskirts of Prague. Their bodies were discovered with gunshot wounds in mid-December. He is now believed to be responsible for 17 murders. The city’s police chief, Martin Vondrasek, described the university shooting as ‘well-thought out, a horrible act.’ It is believed to be the worst mass shooting in the country’s history.” [Foreign Policy]
Living solo is on the rise
Data: IPUMS via Our World in Data. Chart: Axios Visuals
“The overall share of people living alone in the U.S. has been inching up, Axios' Erica Pandey reports.
Why it matters: Living alone can be tough in a country built for families. And it can have consequences for mental and physical health — especially among older Americans.
What's happening: Several social and demographic trends are converging to give rise to isolation.
Over the past 50 years, the marriage rate in the U.S. has dropped by nearly 60%. Many people are also delaying marriageinto their late 30s, early 40s or beyond. That means more people in their 20s and 30s are living alone.
Among adults 60 and older, kinlessness (no living partner, children or siblings) is on the rise. That trend will likely continue for younger generations as more people opt not to start families.
The Census Bureau says "solitaries" made up 8% of all households in 1940. Solo households doubled to 18% in 1970 — and more than tripled to an estimated 29% by 2022.
Between the lines: Although more people are living alone, cities and towns are still primarily set up for families.
Housing is increasingly expensive in cities, where many younger single people might like to live to find community, CNN reports.
And housing in more suburban areas is usually parceled into homes built for a family of four.” [Axios]
Stories that captivate America
Data: Google Trends. Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios
This is the seventh year Axios has presented this year-end exclusive data:
“Donald Trump and Taylor Swift managed to hold Americans' interest throughout 2023 — as a host of other news cycles came and went, Axios' Stef Kight writes in our annual analysis of Google Trends data.
Why it matters: We launched this project — tracking stories that topped the year's Google searches in the U.S. — in 2017 as a way to illuminate the first year of Donald Trump's presidency ("The insane news cycle of Trump's presidency in 1 chart"). Six years later, he still dominates America's searches.
The highest highs: 5 events generated huge spikes in search interest — moments that captured America's attention, but didn't necessarily hold it.
Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin, during the week of his sudden collapse on the field due to cardiac arrest. No other topic took up a greater share of Google searches in a single week.
Israel came in second, with searches surging following the Oct. 7 terrorist attack by Hamas.
The sudden passing of "Friends" actor Matthew Perry.
The Barbie movie, along with Trump's first and final arraignments, each received equal interest scores, tying for the 5th biggest moments.
The steady performers: Other topics stayed top-of-mind for most of the year, even when battling other hot breaking news events for attention:
Taylor Swift drew more interest than any other person, topic or event we analyzed. She was continually a person of interest — whether it was searches for her Eras Tour, the tour's film, the re-release of old albums or her new relationship with the Kansas City Chiefs' Travis Kelce.
Trump was the only person or topic to make the top 5 both for the biggest moment and most consistent interest in 2023.
Ukraine came in third, when measuring sustained interest over the course of the year.
President Biden came in fourth.” [Axios]
First woman to $100 billion
Françoise Bettencourt Meyers arrives at the Élysée Palace in Paris in 2019. Photo: Ian Langsdon/EPA via AP
“Françoise Bettencourt Meyers — granddaughter of the founder of L'Oréal, and the world's wealthiest woman — yesterday became the first woman to amass a $100 billion fortune, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Why it matters: It's a new milestone for the reclusive heiress, 70, ‘and for France's expanding fashion and cosmetics industries,’ Bloomberg reports.
What's happening: ‘The milestone came as shares of L'Oréal SA, the beauty products empire founded by her grandfather, rose to a record high, with the stock set for its best year since 1998,’ per Bloomberg.
Bettencourt Meyers is vice chair of the board of L'Oréal. She and her family own roughly one-third of the stock, making them the biggest shareholders.
Context: Bettencourt Meyers is the world's 12th-richest person on Bloomberg's real-time index, and ranks 13th on a Forbes tracker.” [Axios]
SPORTS
“N.F.L.: The Cleveland Browns clinched a playoff spot, defeating the New York Jets, 37-20. Browns quarterback Joe Flacco continued his streak of unexpected brilliance.” [New York Times]
“College football: Alabama tightened its film restrictions as it prepares to play Michigan, which is embroiled in a sign-stealing scandal.” [New York Times]
Texas, California are top bowl-ticket buyers
Data: SeatGeek. Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios
“College football fans in California and Texas are among the top buyers for five of the New Year's Six bowl games — with the Peach Bowl as the lone exception, Axios' Maxwell Millington writes from data shared by SeatGeek.” [Axios]