The Full Belmonte, 12/28/2023
2024 may be hottest year on record
Data: NOAA. (Uses 1901-2000 mean. 2023 data through Nov.) Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios
“2024 may be even hotter than the ‘gobsmackingly’ hot 2023, which featured extreme — and often deadly — weather and climate events around the globe.
Why it matters: A hotter '24 would lend credence to the hypothesis that global warming is accelerating, Axios climate expert Andrew Freedman writes.
The big picture: The combination of human-caused global warming from the burning of fossil fuels for energy, along with deforestation — plus other factors like a naturally occurring El Niño — have boosted 2023's record warmth, stunning many in the scientific community.
Disasters from deadly flooding in Libya and Greece to never-before-seen global average temperatures, along with record-shattering ocean heat, have occurred this year, for example.
Studies have tied many of these events directly to climate change.
This has led to a debate among some climate scientists regarding the rate of global warming, which began accelerating in the 1970s, and may be speeding up now.
But there are skeptics. ‘During the typical first year of an El Niño, we see a global temperature spike in the last few months of the year followed by very warm conditions during the first months of the following year,’ said Robert Rohde, a scientist at Berkeley Earth, an independent group that tracks global temperatures.” [Axios]
© Associated Press
Biden’s border problems get bigger and bigger
“The latest hurdle to President Biden’s reelection effort is a 6,000-person caravan of migrants headed toward the southern border.
Immigration has been an irritant for the White House for much of Biden’s time in office, whether it has come from allies in the Democratic Party or GOP opponents.
But the headaches have grown as the border issues have become intertwined with the president’s call for Congress to deliver more aid to Ukraine.
Those talks have been at a standstill — very much because Biden tied funding for Ukraine and Israel to border security money, which then led to a thorny debate over immigration. Congress hasn’t been able to find a compromise on that issue in a generation or two, and talks between senators before the Christmas break made little progress.
Now the caravan is adding to the political toxicity of the issue for Biden, who Republicans want to cast as not taking the issue seriously enough. It also meshes with a more general argument Republicans have sought to make about Biden being too weak on the foreign and domestic stage, a point seemingly intertwined with GOP attacks on the 81-year-old president’s age.
BORDER SECURITY also is the signature issue for former President Trump, the frontrunner for the GOP nomination who is ahead of Biden in The Hill/Decision Desk average of polls by a full 2 percentage points.
Migrants gather at the US-Mexico border near Eagle Pass, Texas.
The Hill’s Rafael Bernal examines the issue in a piece that notes the caravans serve a political purpose for those putting them together. They give organizers and migrants exposure for their cause, even as they give Republicans and conservative media ammunition for their attacks. That ammunition comes despite the fact that the caravans themselves rarely do anything to interfere with actual border security.
‘How they get to the border if they enter illegally has no bearing on how they are processed,’ a CBP official told The Hill.
The Biden administration has sought to win Mexico’s help with the caravan, which includes migrants from a host of countries. But as Bernal writes, Mexico’s president shut down the possibility of a law enforcement crackdown, arguing the ‘root causes’ of migration must be dealt with to solve the problem.
For the time being, that would seem to put the ball back in Congress’ court when it returns in January. There has been plenty of talk of the possibility for progress in those discussions. But solving the root causes of migration? It’s fair to be skeptical of that challenge being met successfully early in the new year.
It’s all a problem for Biden, who gets criticized over the caravan, over a perceived weakness at the border and for an inability to get Ukraine aid across the finish line if progress on everything is stymied.
The administration on Wednesday said it was delivering the final $250 million it can give to Ukraine using its existing powers. The announcement came with a plea for Congress to take action.” [The Hill]
Donald Trump is set to appear on Michigan’s 2024 primary ballot.
“Why? The state Supreme Court declined yesterday to hear a challenge to his candidacy. His opponents argued he should be disqualified over his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack.
What else to know: The Colorado Republican Party has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to keep Trump on the state’s primary ballot after he was disqualified by Colorado’s high court.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Ballot fight
“The Colorado Republican Party has asked the US Supreme Court to overturn the ruling that disqualifies former President Donald Trump from the state's 2024 ballot. The Colorado Supreme Court ruled last week that Trump is constitutionally ineligible to run next year because the 14th Amendment's ban on insurrectionists holding public office covers his conduct during the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. The filing Wednesday came hours after the Michigan Supreme Court rejected a similar 14th Amendment lawsuit, keeping Trump on the ballot there. The dueling outcomes further raise the stakes for the Colorado appeal to the US Supreme Court, which is uniquely positioned to provide nationwide guidance on the novel constitutional matter.” [CNN]
Boebert moves districts — across state
Rep. Lauren Boebert takes a selfie with newly elected Speaker Mike Johnson on Oct. 25. Photo: Nathan Howard/Reuters
“Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) made the surprise announcement that she'll seek election in a solidly Republican House seat across the state, which would move her constituency from the Western Slope to the Eastern Plains.
Why it matters: The move is an acknowledgment of the tough reelection prospects the right-wing firebrand faced in her current seat, where she won by 500 votes last year, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.
Boebert's right-wing politics and bombastic personal style have hurt her back home. As a freshman in 2021, she made headlines for declaring her intentions to open-carry a firearm on the House floor.
Boebert made last night's announcement in a Facebook video, saying it's the ‘right move for me personally, and it's the right decision for those who support our conservative movement.’
Rather than running in her native 3rd district, which voted for Trump by about six points in 2020, Boebert said she'll run in the 4th district, a Trump +16 seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.).
In a nod to the record-shattering fundraising of 3rd district Democrat Adam Frisch, Boebert said she wants to ‘[stay] in the fight,’ but that ‘Hollywood elites and progressive money groups’ are trying to ‘buy’ her district.
Boebert's brand took a hit this year when she was kicked out of a showing of "Beetlejuice" after security footage showed her and her date behaving inappropriately. Boebert filed for divorce from her husband in May.
‘Personally, this announcement is a fresh start following a pretty difficult year,’ she said. ‘I have made my own personal mistakes and I have owned up and apologized for them.’
What to watch: Boebert's announcement will likely make it easier for Republicans to hold the 3rd district, but her personal political prospects remain murky. A large field of credible Republicans has materialized to try to replace Buck in the 4th district.” [Axios]
Streets flooded in Kherson, Ukraine, June 7, 2023, after the Kakhovka dam collapsed. (AP Photo/Libkos)
RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR
AP concludes at least hundreds died in floods after Ukraine dam collapse, far more than Russia said
“Over six months after a catastrophic explosion destroyed the Kakhovka Dam in southern Ukraine’s Kherson region, an AP investigation has found Russian occupation authorities vastly and deliberately undercounted the dead in one of the most devastating chapters of the 22-month war. Read more.
Why this matters:
In the critical first hours after the June 6 dam collapse, occupation authorities downplayed the consequences, leading many residents in the town of Oleshky to believe they would not be affected. This later contributed to the high death toll.
Health workers and others who were in Oleshky told the AP that Russian authorities hid the true number of dead by taking control of the issuing of death certificates and immediately removing bodies not claimed by families. They also prevented local health workers and volunteers from dealing with the dead, threatening them when they defied orders. Still afraid, many Oleshky residents and health workers declined to speak, fearing reprisals.” [AP News]
Israel’s war in Gaza is threatening to spill into Lebanon and beyond.
“What to know: Escalating strikes and counterstrikes along the border between Israel and Lebanon are raising fears of a wider warwith Iran-backed groups like Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
In Gaza: Trucks delivering supplies to Gazan hospitals are being stopped by hungry people searching for food, the World Health Organization said yesterday.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Russia Hails Relationship With India as Jaishankar Visits
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar hold a joint press conference in Moscow on Dec. 27.Alexander Nemenov/Pool/AFP via Getty Images
“Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar met Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on Wednesday. Despite Western attempts to isolate Russia in response to its war in Ukraine, India has dramatically increased its purchase of Russian oil since the conflict began.
‘Everything is in your hands,’ Putin said, according to the New York Times, ‘and I can say that we are successful because of your direct support.’ Putin also invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Russia. Ahead of the meeting, Jaishankar said the officials would ‘focus on bilateral cooperation in different spheres,’ while Lavrov said that both countries are invested in ‘building an international political and economic system that would be open and fair for everyone.’
Following the discussions, Lavrov hailed India’s ‘responsible approach’ to world affairs, including the war in Ukraine. Jaishankar, for his part, called Russia a ‘valued and time-tested’ partner. New Delhi has historic diplomatic ties with Moscow and has long relied on imports of Russian arms. (During Jaishankar’s visit, the two countries reportedly made ‘tangible progress’ on plans for the joint production of military equipment.)
On Tuesday, India and Russia also discussed the Kudankulam nuclear power plant, which is being built in southern India with assistance from Russia. The two countries came to an agreement on the future construction of power-generating units for the plant, which is expected to become fully operational in 2027 after years of construction.
Since the outset of Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, India has walked a tightrope with its partners, striving to keep Russia close while also bolstering its relationship with the United States. In 2023, this seemed to work: Modi was feted with a state visit at the White House in June and is ending the year with an invitation to visit the Kremlin.
However, the United States has also accused India of involvement in an assassination plot of a U.S. and Canadian citizen; the charges followed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegations in September that India was behind the assassination of a Sikh activist in Canada. Modi has tried to downplay what this will mean for U.S.-India relations, telling the Financial Times that a ‘few incidents’ would not derail the partnership.
Modi will be focused on something else in the new year in addition to the United States and Russia: India has a general election in 2024, when voters will decide whether they’re impressed by Modi’s balancing act abroad and his political performance at home.” [Foreign Policy]
“Deadly storms in Australia. At least 10 people were killed in storms that ravaged eastern Australia on Christmas and Boxing Day, including a 9-year-old child. Tens of thousands of people in the state of Queensland are still without power. The storms came more than a week after the dissipation of Cyclone Jasper, which caused major floods in parts of the state. Repairs from the cyclone and subsequent storms could cost billions of dollars.
Flooding and winds from the thunderstorms also hit the states of Victoria and New South Wales. Australia is currently experiencing an El Niño weather event, which is associated with cyclones and wildfires. Forecasts show that there will be more thunderstorms, although conditions are also expected to improve over the coming days. The U.N. has warned that environmental disasters are expected to get worse unless dramatic action is taken to tackle the climate crisis.” [Foreign Policy]
“AstraZeneca buys Chinese firm. AstraZeneca, Britain’s biggest pharmaceutical company, is buying Gracell Biotechnologies, a Chinese cancer therapy firm, for $1.2 billion. The move reflects a push further into cancer research and treatment, which already makes up roughly one-third of AstraZeneca’s business—as well as a push into China.
AstraZeneca is also striking deals with China-based firms: Before the purchase of Gracell, there was a deal to develop a weight-loss pill with Eccogene, a Chinese biotech company, in November. Over the summer, it was reported that AstraZeneca was considering listing its local business in China on the Shanghai or Hong Kong stock exchange, which the Guardian describes as a way “to avoid being caught up in the fallout” of U.S.-China tensions. The company did not comment on the speculation.” [Foreign Policy]
The New York Times is suing tech companies for using its articles to train AI.
“Which ones? Microsoft and OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT. The suit, filed yesterday, alleges the companies used ‘millions’ of copyrighted Times articles to build their lucrative tech.
Zooming out: The lawsuit is part of a growing wave of opposition to the tech industry’s use of creative work without paying for it or getting permission.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Amazon’s Prime Video is getting ads next month.
“What to know: Amazon will include ads in streaming movies and shows beginning Jan. 29, the company said this week. (Amazon founder Jeff Bezos owns The Post.)
Don’t want ads? An ad-free service will be available for an additional $2.99 a month. Every other major streaming platform offers an ad-free and cheaper option.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Apple restarts watch sales
Apple Watch Series 9. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
“Apple won a temporary pause on the U.S. International Trade Commission's ban on sales of Watch Series 9 and Watch Ultra 2 models in the U.S.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit's interim order allowed Apple to resume selling the wearables while continuing to appeal the ban, Axios' Rebecca Falconer and Shauneen Miranda report.
‘We are thrilled to return the full Apple Watch lineup to customers in time for the new year,’ Apple said.
‘Apple's teams have worked tirelessly over many years to develop technology that empowers users with industry-leading health, wellness and safety features and we are pleased the [court] has stayed the exclusion order while it considers our request to stay the order pending our full appeal.’
Catch me up: In October, the USITC ruled in favor of Masimo, a medical device company that also produces fitness-tracking smartwatches. The company claims Apple's blood oxygen sensor included with some watch models infringed on Masimo's intellectual property.
Context: Apple is the world's largest smartwatch seller. Apple Watches accounted for nearly a third of all smartwatch purchases across the globe last year, per Counterpoint Research.
What's next: Apple expects the U.S. appeals court to hear its motion as soon as Jan. 15.” [Axios]
Cher files for conservatorship of her son, claims Elijah Blue Allman's life is 'at risk'
“Cher has filed for a conservatorship of her son Elijah Blue Allman due to alleged ‘severe mental health and substance abuse issues.’
According to documents filed in Los Angeles Superior Court and obtained by USA TODAY on Wednesday, the Grammy-winning singer claims that due to those reasons, her son is unable to manage his financial assets.
‘Elijah is entitled to regular distributions from a trust established by his father for his benefit, but given his ongoing mental he provide for himself, and putting Elijah’s life at risk,’ the filing states….” Read more at USA Today
Miners unearthed a mammoth tusk in a pile of debris in North Dakota.
(North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources)
“What you’re looking at: An intact mammoth tusk that, until May, had been buried since the Ice Age. An eagle-eyed bulldozer operator spotted it among some excavated dirt.
And that’s not all: More than 20 additional bones were found nearby, making it one of the largest discoveries of mammoth remains in the state, officials said this month.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Tom Smothers, half of the Smothers Brothers comedy duo, has died.
Tom Smothers, left, in 1968, with brother Dick, right, and musician Glen Campbell. (CBS Photo Archive/Getty Images)
“His legacy: He and his brother, Dick, had a hit CBS variety show in the late 1960s. It was canceled in 1969 after censors cut sketches that took aim at politics and the Vietnam War.
What we know: Smothers died Tuesday at his home in Santa Rosa, Calif. He had been receiving treatment for cancer. He was 86.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Herb Kohl is saluted by Milwaukee Bucks fans in 2014: Photo: Morry Gash/AP
“Former Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) died at 88 at home in Milwaukee after a brief illness.
His legacy: Kohl, a lifelong sports fan, owned the Milwaukee Bucks for nearly 30 years, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Kohl, notoriously quiet, plunged into politics in 1988 with a successful bid for Senate that he easily extended into three more terms.” [Axios]
“Lives Lived: Wolfgang Schäuble played a key role in the reunification of East and West Germany and was once viewed widely as the heir apparent to Chancellor Helmut Kohl. Schäuble has died at 81.” [New York Times]