The Full Belmonte, 12/16/2023
Israel's hostage gut punch
Israeli soldiers carry out a ground operation in Gaza City's Shijaiyah neighborhood last week. Photo: Moti Milrod/Haaretz via AP
“The IDF's mistaken killing of three Israeli hostages in Gaza today is already increasing domestic pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike a new deal to release the hostages still held by Hamas, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.
The incident took place this morning in Shijaiyah — a Gaza City neighborhood where intense fighting is taking place, IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said.
The IDF said soldiers who were operating in the area mistakenly identified three Israeli hostages as a threat. As a result, the troops fired on them.
Hagari said the IDF thinks the three hostages had either managed to escape or were abandoned by their Hamas captors during the fighting in the neighborhood.
Hamas is still holding more than 130 hostages. Several family members publicly called on the Israeli government to present a new plan for a deal to secure their release after today's incident.
Zoom in: The director of Israel's Mossad spy agency is expected to meet Qatar's prime minister in Europe this weekend to discuss restarting hostage negotiations, Barak first reported today.” [Axios]
Jury awards $148 million in damages to Georgia election workers over Rudy Giuliani’s 2020 vote lies
“A jury awarded $148 million in damages on Friday to two former Georgia election workers who sued Rudy Giuliani for defamation over lies he spread about them in 2020 that upended their lives with racist threats and harassment.” Read More at AP News
“Material from the investigation into 2016 Russian election interference went missing in the final days of Trump’s presidency, people familiar with the matter said.” [New York Times]
The Dow set a record for a third straight day.
“The S&P 500 advanced for a seventh consecutive week, its longest winning streak in six years, after the Fed hinted Wednesday it could slash interest rates next year. However, a senior Fed official today said that central-bank policy makers weren’t actively debating when to cut rates, an apparent effort to temper markets’ exuberant interpretation of Chair Jerome Powell’s comments. WSJ’s James Mackintosh cautions investors against following the crowd in betting on a soft landing—each of the past three years had a similarly strong consensus that proved entirely wrong—while WSJ’s Laura Saunders explains how to make the most of the market rally to cut your taxes.” [Wall Street Journal]
A small cadre of conservative loyalists is influencing Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign policy plans.
“The group is stocked with veterans of the former president’s first term who are helping him lay the groundwork for what would be an aggressive and controversial second-term agenda. An expanded version of his ban on immigrants from many Muslim-majority countries is back on the table, and he has promised the largest-ever deportation of migrants who are in the country illegally. To tackle crime in cities, Trump has suggested sending in the military. He has also proposed expansive new federal government initiatives such as building ‘freedom cities’ on federal land and launching ‘anti-woke’ universities. His policy agenda has excited core supporters while alarming Democrats and some Republicans.” [Wall Street Journal]
GOP senator says Biden can’t be impeached for pre-presidential actions
“Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) is warning House Republicans that President Biden could not be impeached and removed from office for any conduct or crimes committed before he was elected president in 2020.
Mullin’s statement in an interview with Newsmax pours cold water on a House GOP investigation into Biden’s family’s business dealings, particularly Hunter Biden’s work with foreign companies, while Biden was vice president during the Obama administration and immediately after.”
Read the full story here at The Hill
\Trump takes significant polling lead over Biden in presidential race
BY BRETT SAMUELS
© Greg Nash/Photo Illustration
“Recent polls show former President Trump leading President Biden in key swing states that will likely decide the 2024 election, indicating Trump is not just the overwhelming favorite to secure the GOP nomination but is in a strong position to recapture the White House less than a year before Election Day.
Trump leads Biden in hypothetical match-ups both with and without third-party options on the ballot in states including Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to fresh polling. Biden carried each of those states in 2020, and Trump will need to flip at least a few of those states if he is to win in 2024.”
Read the full story here at The Hill
Mother of 6-year-old who shot teacher in Virginia gets 2 years in prison for child neglect
The mother of a 6-year-old who shot his teacher in Virginia was sentenced Friday to two years in prison for felony child neglect, nearly a year after her son used her gun to critically wound the educator. Read More.
Prince Harry's big win
Prince Harry leaves the High Court after giving evidence at the trial this summer. Photo: Kim Cheung/AP
“Prince Harry was a victim of ‘habitual’ and illegal phone hacking by a British newspaper chain for over a decade, a court in London ruled today.
Why it matters: The victory was a major win in his long-running fight against the British media's pursuit of his private life.
Top editors — including Piers Morgan — knew about ‘widespread’ unlawful behavior at its newspapers, the judge said. Morgan denied the allegations.” [Axios]
”Jailed Putin Critic Alexei Navalny’s Whereabouts Remain a Mystery - Concern is growing for the welfare of the opposition politician, whose team hasn’t had any communication with him for the past 10 days.” [Wall Street Journal]
A peaceful path forward in South America?
Roberto Cisneros/AFP via Getty Images
“Venezuela and Guyana are stuck in a territorial dispute over one particularly oil-rich swath of land, but the two sides announced they intend to find a peaceful resolution to the matter.
The countries’ two leaders — Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali — shook hands on camera at the conclusion of a day-long summit dedicated to the issue. They also agreed to form a joint commission to resolve the dispute, though Guyana still says it wants the International Court of Justice involved and Venezuela does not, CNN reports.
At issue is the Essequibo region, which comprises most of Guyana’s land area and about 128,000 of its 730,000 citizens. The dispute dates back to the colonial era, when the United States adjudicated a dispute between the United Kingdom (then in control of Guyana) and Venezuela over the territory, handing control of most of it to the UK (and thereby putting it in Guyana once the latter became independent). But Venezuela has continued to protest its case.
The two sides have been ostensibly striving to find a permanent solution since the late 1960s. But recent events have brought the dispute back to the fore:
Venezuelans voted recently to create a new state within Essequibo. Following a popular referendum earlier this month, Maduro ordered new maps to be drawn and pointedly disregarded the 1899 agreement that created Guyana’s modern borders.
Guyana regarded the Venezuelan actions as an “existential” threat that could lead to bloodshed. Ali said his country had begun conversations with the United States (with whom Guyana has a complicated defense cooperation agreement) and with Brazil in preparation for the need to defend itself if Venezuela moved forward.
The two countries are pledging not to go to war. This week’s summit did not lead to a resolution to the diplomatic disagreement, but the sides have promised “not [to] threaten or use force against one another in any circumstances” and to “refrain, whether by words or deeds, from escalating any conflict or disagreement.”
A joint commission of Venezuelans and Guyanans will try to find a path forward. The commission will be led by both countries’ foreign ministers, with the assistance of their technical staff. They are expected to provide an update within three months, after which there will be another summit in Brazil.” [Vox]
Aid Veto
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for a roundtable meeting of the European Council in Brussels on Dec. 14.Miguel Medina/AFP
“Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban vetoed a massive European Union aid package for Ukraine on Friday. The bill promised $54.5 billion over four years to combat Russian advances, particularly as Ukraine prepares for another harsh winter offensive.
Orban threatened to continue blocking the aid deal so long as the EU withholds billions of euros earmarked for Hungary, which have been frozen due to concerns about democratic backsliding in Budapest. On Wednesday, the bloc restored Budapest’s access to nearly $11 billion after ruling that Hungary had made substantial efforts to reform its judiciary—a controversial decision that some experts say is the EU folding to blackmail.
Yet that wasn’t enough for Orban to cave on greater Ukraine aid. “It is a great opportunity for Hungary to make it clear that it must get what it is entitled to: not half of it or one-fourth,” he said. Nearly $23 billion of the EU funds intended for Hungary remain frozen.
Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrated Orban’s decision. The two autocrats have long been close allies. But the EU is not ready to give up on aiding Ukraine. “I can assure you; Ukraine will not be left without support. There are different ways to do this,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said, suggesting that an EU extraordinary summit in January could spark new solutions. Those could include the European Commission coordinating the collection of grants or EU nations supplying Kyiv with loans.
The unsuccessful vote comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is also struggling to secure additional aid from the United States. U.S. Republicans in Congress have repeatedly blocked the White House’s efforts to pass an emergency spending package that would provide Ukraine with more than $60 billion in aid, demanding that new immigration and security measures for the U.S. southern border also be included in the aid package.
Sending money to Ukraine “is more politically sensitive for Republicans now, with the momentum the anti-Ukraine faction has, and coming to Washington to ask for more money when they’re focused primarily on southern border negotiations just puts a magnifying glass on that,” FP’s Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer wrote in Situation Report regarding Zelensky’s speech this week on Capitol Hill.
But Ukraine’s diplomacy efforts were not without some successes. On Thursday, Orban walked out of an EU leaders vote to allow the 26 other member nations to approve beginning talks on Ukraine’s accession into the EU. “History is made by those who don’t get tired of fighting for freedom,” Zelensky wrote on X, formerly Twitter, to celebrate the symbolic win. Still, membership remains many years away, and Orban has threatened to change his mind and block Kyiv’s accession efforts going forward if the EU does not fold to his demands.” [Foreign Policy]
“Who will be in charge? U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank on Friday to discuss the future governance of the Gaza Strip. ‘We do not believe that it makes sense for Israel, or is right for Israel, to … reoccupy Gaza over the long term,’ Sullivan said. ‘Ultimately the control of Gaza, the administration of Gaza and the security of Gaza has to transition to the Palestinians.’
Both Sullivan and Abbas expressed interest in the Palestinian Authority (PA), which oversees the West Bank in a security partnership with Israel, taking over Gaza once the war is over. Hamas removed the PA from power in Gaza in 2007. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to advocate for Israeli control, with U.S. President Joe Biden accusing Netanyahu of not seriously working toward creating an independent Palestinian state and calling on Israel to scale down its ground offensive in Gaza.
Criticism of Israel’s operations escalated on Friday when the Israeli military said it mistakenly killed three Israeli hostages, having believed them to be Hamas militants fighting in Gaza City. It is unclear if the hostages escaped or were abandoned by their captors. The Israeli military claimed full responsibility and said it would conduct an investigation into the incident. Israel estimates that Hamas continues to hold around 137 people in captivity.
Meanwhile, officials in Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands arrested seven people, including four suspected Hamas members, on Thursday for allegedly planning terrorist attacks against Jewish institutions in Europe. The militant group has denied any connection to the individuals. Reports of antisemitic hate crimes in Europe have skyrocketed since the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7, with Berlin reporting a 240 percent increase during the first month of the war.” [Foreign Policy]
“De-escalating tensions. Latin America breathed a sigh of relief on Thursday when Venezuela and Guyana agreed not to use force to settle their dispute over control of the Esequibo region. The 11-point declaration, signed during a meeting between Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali in St. Vincent, did not make any progress toward determining sovereignty, but it did commit both countries to refraining from escalating the conflict, whether through words or actions.
This month, Caracas passed a referendum saying Esequibo was rightfully part of Venezuela despite international law recognizing it as Guyanese territory. Maduro has had his eyes on the resource-rich nation since ExxonMobil discovered vast oil wealth off its coast in 2015, and a looming presidential election pushed the autocrat to bolster his voting base by campaigning on new nationalistic fervor.” [Foreign Policy]
“Major crackdown. Newly elected Argentine President Javier Milei announced a nationwide crackdown on street protests on Thursday. All four of Argentina’s federal police forces were ordered to clear demonstrators from the streets, and some protesters could face fines or other legal consequences for not dissipating.
The announcement follows Milei’s decision on Tuesday to devalue the peso by 50 percent against the U.S. dollar as part of proposed ‘shock therapy’ economic reforms. Inflation in Argentina hit 161 percent last month, fueling rising poverty. But many in the country, including powerful labor and social groups, are opposed to his new policies and have called for protests against them. The new security protocols seem designed to repress any potential unrest.” [Foreign Policy]
Javier Milei Photographer: Juan Mabromata/Getty Images
“Election season. Chileans head to the polls this Sunday to vote on a constitutional referendum that would replace its dictator-era charter with an even more conservative document. Its 216 articles cover everything from private property rights to immigration to abortion restrictions. This is the country’s second effort to replace its decades-old ruling manifest in a bid to combat public anger that motivated mass protests in 2019 over rising inequality. But it leaves progressive voters, including many Indigenous Chileans, stuck between a rock and a hard place: defending the existing constitution drafted under the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet or supporting a document that they see as even worse.
That same day, millions of people in Chad will hold their own constitutional referendum. If passed, N’Djamena’s new constitution would consolidate interim President Mahamat Déby’s power. Several opposition parties have called for a boycott of the election. But with Déby’s coalition controlling the media, and anti-referendum advocates facing state intimidation efforts and financing shortages, the likelihood of Chad’s new constitution passing looks high.” [Foreign Policy]
Odds and Ends
The U.S. House of Representatives passed an $886 billion defense package on Thursday that will help upgrade the U.S. nuclear arsenal, fund weapons development—and provide greater transparency of government records on UFO sightings. The measure instructs the National Archives to collect government documents on “unidentified anomalous phenomena, technologies of unknown origin and nonhuman intelligence” and disclose them to the public within 25 years of their creation unless otherwise classified by the president. Maybe we’ll finally learn which of the hundreds of alien movies out there is most accurate. I’m placing money on Coneheads.
Mexico’s president inaugurates first part of $20 billion tourist train project on Yucatan peninsula
“Mexico’s president on Friday inaugurated the first part of the pet project of his administration, a tourist train that runs in a rough loop around the Yucatan peninsula. The 950-mile line is meant to connect beach resorts and archaeological sites.” Read More at AP News
Starbucks’s $11 billion loss, explained
Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images
“Starbucks is worth about $11 billion less than it was in mid-November — but you can’t necessarily blame the social media-driven boycotts over the company’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war.
Let’s back up here, in case you missed it: Starbucks has come under fire from supporters of both Israel and Palestine over its public messaging on the conflict in Gaza.
It started with Starbucks Workers United, a pro-labor organization that has pushed to unionize the company’s workers, tweeting its solidarity with Palestine shortly after the October 7 attacks. The tweet was quickly deleted and disavowed by the group. But it was already too late.
Starbucks, which has a … let’s call it contentious relationship with the labor activists within its workforce, sued over the tweet. It alleged that the use of its copyright and trademarks in the initial message could have been construed as the company supporting Hamas. The workers’ organization then countersued and claimed defamation.
Somehow, both the right and the left ended up enraged by this sequence of events and called for coffee drinkers to boycott Starbucks. Republicans and Jewish organizations were furious over the initial tweet. Supporters of Palestine fumed over the company’s response to the union message, interpreting it as Starbucks putting itself on the side of Israel in this conflict.
Both sides had reasons to celebrate — and claim credit — as Starbucks’s stock price dipped 9 percent over the past month. The only problem, Vox’s Emily Stewart writes, is the boycotts don’t appear to have had anything to do with the company’s poor financial performance.
Starbucks’s sales have been falling short of Wall Street expectations. To give one example, the surge in foot traffic for the company’s Red Cup Day (when it gives away reusable coffee mugs) was much smaller this year than it was last year: Just a 32 percent bump over a regular day versus 81 percent the year before.
“I don’t think it’s the protests that are driving this,” Sara Senatore, senior research analyst at Bank of America, told Emily. Let’s be frank: Nobody knows exactly why stock prices do what they do. All we know for sure is investors do not like what they are seeing from the company right now.
Starbucks has other challenges. Price hikes could be driving coffee drinkers to cut back, and the weakening Chinese economy also poses a threat to its core business. It didn’t help that Starbucks started Q4 with high expectations, giving it farther to fall when the reality didn’t meet those projections.
The battle between Starbucks and its workers continues. Nearly 400 of the franchise’s 9,000 US locations have unionized and staff continue to put pressure on the company to meet its demands. In perhaps a hopeful sign, corporate reached out to the union with a proposal to resume bargaining in January 2024. Whatever is going on, the company seems eager to move on and move forward.” [Vox]
Costco's hottest item
Photo: Costco
“Costco shoppers are snapping up a surprising number of gold bars from the big box retailer, Axios' Sareen Habeshian writes.
The company sold more than $100 million worth of the precious metal last quarter, CFO Richard Galanti said.
Why it matters: A single bar of gold is both expensive enough to be a store of real value and cheap enough that a large proportion of Costco's membership can afford it, Axios' Felix Salmon writes.
The retailer sells 1 oz. gold bars for about $2,000 a pop on its website, with a limit of two per Costco membership.” [Axios]
Activision Blizzard to Pay Around $50 Million to Settle Lawsuit That Spurred Microsoft’s Takeover
“Activision Blizzard has agreed to pay about $50 million to settle a high-profile lawsuit by a California regulator that helped spur Microsoft’s October takeover of the videogame company, according to people familiar with the matter.
California’s Civil Rights Department sued Activision in mid-2021, alleging its leadership ignored numerous employee complaints of sexual harassment, discrimination and pay disparity.”
READ MORE at Wall Street Journal
“DocuSign, whose software handles electronic signatures, rallied the most in a year after a report that the company was considering a sale. DocuSign is said to be working with advisers to explore a leveraged buyout, but the talks are reportedly in early stages. DocuSign’s market value was $12.8 billion as of Friday.” [Bloomberg]
Autopsy shows Matthew Perry died of ‘acute effects of ketamine’
“‘Friends’ star Matthew Perry died as a result of ‘acute effects of ketamine’ and subsequent drowning, an autopsy report shows.
The report, released Friday by the Los Angeles Medical Examiner’s Office, shows Perry’s blood tested positive for ketamine, which is known to treat depression and anxiety.”
Read More at CNN
GAME OF THE WEEKEND
Nebraska’s volleyball match in August. Terry Ratzlaff for The New York Times
“Texas vs. Nebraska, N.C.A.A. volleyball championship: Early this season, Nebraska became the center of the volleyball universe when the team drew more than 92,000 fans to a match — setting a world record for attendance at a women’s sporting event. They have lived up to the hype since then, going 33-1 and earning the No. 1 overall seed in the N.C.A.A. tournament. After sweeping Pitt in the semifinals, Nebraska will face Texas, last year’s champions, in the finals. The teams have met in the championship twice before — in 2015 and 1995 — and Nebraska won both. Tomorrow at 3 p.m. Eastern on ABC.” [New York Times}
THE WEEK IN CULTURE
“A lost work by Raymond Chandler, best remembered for his hard-boiled detective novels, was found. It’s a poem.” [New York Times]
“Four months after the British Museum fired a curator suspected of stealing from its Greek and Roman stores, the institution said about 1,500 objects were missing. Gold taken from some other items has probably been sold to scrap metal merchants.” [New York Times]
“The Brooklyn Academy of Music’s dance-heavy upcoming season will feature a rock opera by the performance artist Taylor Mac and a film retrospective of the actor Jeffrey Wright.” [New York Times]
“The actor Andre Braugher died this week at 61. Stream seven of his memorable performances, including “The Tuskegee Airmen” and “Brooklyn Nine-Nine.”” [New York Times]
“Cardi B announced that she had separated from her husband, the rapper Offset, Billboard reports.” [New York Times]
““Curb Your Enthusiasm” will officially end after season 12 next year, Variety reports.” [New York Times]
“A judge ruled that there was sufficient proof that Prince Harry’s phone was hacked by a U.K. tabloid.”
“In Miami, Kanye West previewed his first album since a string of antisemitic comments threatened to end his career last year. Onstage he wore a pointed black hood that resembled a Ku Klux Klan robe.” [New York Times]