The Full Belmonte, 11/8/2023
Abortion-rights victories in 3 states
Supporters of Ohio's Issue 1 (constitutional right to abortion) cheer results in Columbus. Photo: Sue Ogrocki/AP
“Last night's off-year elections proved the post-Roe staying power of abortion rights to bolster Democrats — even in the red states of Ohio and Kentucky, and in Virginia under Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
Why it matters: Abortion rights have won every time they've been on the ballot since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, Axios' Caitlin Owens and Stef Kight write.
Ohio voters added the right to abortion into the state constitution — providing a template for advocates in other red and purple states hoping to push similar measures.
Groups in Arizona, Florida, Nevada, Colorado and South Dakota are working to get abortion rights measures on the ballot next year.
Ohio also voted to legalize recreational marijuana. More from Axios Columbus.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) gives his victory speech in Louisville. Photo: Stephen Cohen/Getty Images
In the deep red state of Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear kept his seat after an election often defined by his support for abortion rights.
Beshear, 45, ‘has now won two races in a state that favored Trump by 26 points in 2020,’ making Beshear a presidential or V.P. option ‘whenever Democrats might be looking to assemble a new ticket,’ The Washington Post notes.
Youngkin failed to gain control of the Virginia legislature. That means he won't be able to pass his 15-week ‘limit’ on abortions — and saps demand for a potential presidential bid.
The Virginia GOP's failure is a blow for Republicans hoping to prove that what they believe to be a middle ground on abortion will win over voters.
Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) celebrates in Flowood, a Jackson suburb. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) beat back aggressive challenger Brandon Presley (D), a state utility regulator and second cousin of Elvis Presley.
Philadelphia mayoral winner Cherelle Parker (D) takes the stage amid a flurry of city flags. Photo: Matt Rourke/AP
In Philadelphia, Democrat Cherelle Parker is the first woman to win as mayor — a victory signaling a likely shift toward tough-on-crime policies.
She has pledged to hire hundreds of cops, and embraces the stop-and-frisk police tactic. More from Axios Philly.
Other firsts: Former Biden White House aide Gabe Amo, the son of West African immigrants, will become the first Black member of Congress from Rhode Island. Go deeper.
In New York, Yusef Salaam (D), an exonerated member of the ‘Central Park Five,’ will represent central Harlem on the City Council, completing a stunning reversal of fortune decades after he was wrongly imprisoned in an infamous rape case.” Go deeper. [Axios]
Big implications for off-year Election Day
“Democrats won several victories Tuesday night, after Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear was reelected, Ohio voters passed a ballot measure to protect abortion rights in the state and Democrats in Virginia won control of the state's Senate and House of Delegates.
But Republicans won in Mississippi, after Democratic candidate Brandon Presley conceded the state's governor race to Tate Reeves, the Republican incumbent.
•Election lesson: Abortion delivers for Democrats. In Kentucky, a solidly red state, Beshear sailed to a second term after a campaign that focused front and center on abortion rights. In Ohio, an increasingly reliable Republican state, voters by double digits approved an amendment enshrining access to abortion in the state constitution.
• Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin had rallied Republicans in the state behind a vision of a red Virginia and total Republican legislature. Now Youngkin will have an uphill battle with his proposed 15-week abortion limit.
•Were the results a loss for Trump? Last night served as a prelude for voter sentiment on key issues and how Republicans and Democrats will fare on the national stage next year.” [USA Today]
Gov. Andy Beshear waves with wife Britainy Beshear, right and Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman, at left, after winning a second term as Kentucky's Governor Tuesday, Nov.7, 2023.
Matt Stone, Louisville Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK
Democrats win in several states on abortion rights, and other highlights from Tuesday’s elections
“Democrats have a lot to be happy about after winning major races in Tuesday’s election. Abortion rights supporters won big in an Ohio ballot measure and Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear was reelected in Kentucky after running television ads painting his challenger as an extremist on abortion. Read more.
Key results:
In Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear was reelected in a state that Donald Trump had won by 26 percentage points over Joe Biden, and in Virginia, Democrats retook full control of the General Assembly after two years of divided power, holding control of the state Senate and flipping control of the Virginia House of Delegates. Later on Tuesday, Dan McCaffery won an open seat on Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court after positioning himself as a defender of abortion rights.
In Ohio, a ballot measure preserving abortion rights passed in a state that Trump won by eight percentage points in 2020. Republicans had already tried to derail the measure by calling an unusual August referendum to make it harder to pass ballot measures — an initiative that was roundly rejected by Ohio voters. The outcomes suggest a transformed political landscape since a conservative majority of the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a federal right to abortion last year.
In some historic election firsts, former Biden White House aide Gabe Amo will become the first Black member of Congress from Rhode Island, and Philadelphia will have its first female mayor after Democrat Cherelle Parker defeated Republican David Oh in the overwhelmingly Democratic city.” [AP News]
The Supreme Court seems likely to preserve a gun law that protects domestic violence victims
“In their first guns case since last year’s expansion of gun rights, the justices suggested that they will reverse a ruling from an appeals court in New Orleans that struck down the 1994 ban on firearms for people under court order to stay away from their spouses or partners.” Read More at AP News
Soaring national debt
Data: Congressional Budget Office. Chart: Axios Visuals
“It would take spending cuts or tax increases equivalent to $2,400 per American per year to stabilize the national debt, according to a new book that shows the U.S. government's fiscal situation is more precarious than lawmakers of either party acknowledge.
Why it matters: The numbers sound an alarm about America's fiscal vulnerability, at a time when there's bipartisan resistance to steps that might change that course, Axios Macro author Neil Irwin writes.
What's happening: The numbers on America's fiscal vulnerability are spelled out in ‘Building a More Resilient U.S. Economy,’ out today from the Aspen Economic Strategy Group, led by former Treasury Secretaries Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner.
To reduce deficits to the point where the public debt levels off as a share of the economy — a more plausible goal than balancing the budget — Congress would have to enact some mix of spending cuts and tax increases equivalent to 2.8% of GDP, or nearly $800 billion per year.
Reality check: There's zero political momentum for deficit reduction at that scale.” [Axios]
House censures Rashida Tlaib over Israel, Palestine remarks
“The House passed a GOP-led resolution on Tuesday to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib over comments critical of Israel and in support of Palestinians amid Israel’s war against Hamas.
The move amounts to a rare and significant rebuke of the Michigan Democrat, who is the first Palestinian-American woman to serve in Congress.”
Read More at CNN
The House censured Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian American in Congress, for her statements on the Israel-Hamas war.
“Twenty-two Democrats joined most Republicans to pass the resolution, which accuses Ms. Tlaib of calling for the destruction of Israel. The vote was 234 to 188.”
Read more at New York Times
Ohio votes to protect abortion rights — rejecting a 6-week ban
“Ohio voted overwhelmingly on Tuesday to enshrine protections for reproductive health services, including abortion, in the state constitution — the latest in a post-Roe streak of ballot box wins for the abortion rights movement.
The results follow a long, bitter and expensive campaign that shows the continuing resonance of the issue more than a year after Roe v. Wade was overturned and the strength of ballot measures as a tool for advancing abortion rights in GOP-dominated states.”
Read the latest at POLITICO
Andy Beshear wins reelection in Kentucky
“Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection on Tuesday, a major win for Democrats in a red-leaning state. Beshear defeated Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who had the backing of former President Donald Trump and close ties to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.” Read the latest at POLITICO
Third GOP debate will focus on Israel and foreign policy, but also on who could beat Donald Trump
“Foreign policy and the Israel-Hamas war are expected to be prominent in Wednesday’s third Republican primary debate, as a narrowing field of candidates seeks to cut into Donald Trump’s lead without being able to challenge the former president in person. Read more.
Why this matters:
With voting set to start in leadoff Iowa in January, no one has thus far been able to shake Trump’s dominance of the Republican primary. Many of the candidates have gone after each other hoping to break out as a viable alternative to the former president, emphasizing their differences on foreign policy but also ripping Trump for his criticisms of the Israeli prime minister. Trump himself will again skip the debate in Miami, instead holding a rally in a nearby suburb and saying he won’t participate due to his large lead in early polls.” [AP News]
Ivanka takes the stand in Trump New York real estate fraud trial
“Ivanka Trump — former President Donald Trump's oldest daughter — is slated to testify Wednesday in a high-stakes New York civil fraud trial. The results of the case could permanently block her father and brothers from doing business in the nation's financial capital and could cost the Trump family empire a whopping $250 million in penalties. The testimony from Ivanka — a former top White House advisor — comes two days after Donald Trump turned State Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron's Manhattan courtroom into a fiery soapbox.” Read more at USA Today
Taking Control
Flares dropped by the Israel Defense Forces lit up the sky above Gaza City on Nov. 6 amid ongoing battles between Israel and Hamas militants.Bashar Taleb/AFP via Getty Images
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel plans to indefinitely take ‘overall security responsibility’ of Gaza after the war. This is the clearest indication yet that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) plan to maintain some degree of control over the war-torn area—and comes as Israel marks one month since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7 that killed around 1,400 Israelis.
‘When we don’t have that security responsibility, what we have is the eruption of Hamas terror on a scale that we couldn’t imagine,’ Netanyahu said. Following the attack, the right-wing leader pledged to completely destroy Hamas, which has run the Gaza Strip since 2007. However, until now, Netanyahu had not specified plans for the enclave’s future post-Hamas.
In response, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said: ‘Our viewpoint is Palestinians must be at the forefront of these decisions. Gaza is Palestinian land and will remain Palestinian land. Generally speaking, we do not support reoccupation of Gaza and neither does Israel.’
Netanyahu’s comments came the same day that the IDF encircled Gaza City, effectively splitting the Gaza Strip in half by ‘separating Hamas strongholds in the north and the south,’ Israeli military spokesperson Lt. Col. Richard Hecht said.
Despite Netanyahu’s tough posture, he hinted on Monday that Israel may consider ‘tactical little pauses’ in fighting to allow for the safe release of hostages and delivery of aid into Gaza. This moves Israel closer to the U.S. position after President Joe Biden called for localized humanitarian pauses last week. ‘We’ll see what we can do to help put them in place,’ U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Tuesday regarding Netanyahu’s suggestion.
Netanyahu, however, remains adamant that Israel will not accept a total cease-fire until all 200-plus hostages being held by Hamas are released. Only four kidnapped civilians have been released thus far, and the IDF has successfully rescued just one Israeli soldier, who was taken during the Oct. 7 attack.
Many of Israel’s Middle East neighbors and the larger international community continue to advocate for an immediate halt in fighting as the death toll in Gaza rises. More than 10,300 Palestinians have been killed thus far and more than 25,000 others wounded. Of those killed, around two-thirds are women and children, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. Israel maintains that the IDF has killed thousands of Hamas-allied militants. The group has continued to fire rockets at Israel almost daily since Oct. 7, from both Gaza and Lebanon.” [Foreign Policy]
Hundreds feared dead in Sudan’s Darfur region, witness says, after paramilitary forces attack camp for displaced families
“Sudan’s rebel Rapid Support Forces and allied militias have routed the army and captured three out of five regional capitals in Darfur over the past week, in their biggest advance since the conflict began seven months ago. Ahmed Sharif said he had personally collected 102 bodies after the attack on the camp, and said hundreds more were reported dead.”
Read more at Washington Post
How Lebanon’s Hezbollah group became a critical player in the Israel-Hamas war
“Hezbollah has traded fire with Israeli troops along the border since the day after Hamas’ Oct. 7 incursion in southern Israel sparked war in the Gaza Strip. Both sides have suffered casualties, but the fear is that the conflict will escalate and spiral into a regional fight. Read more.
Why this matters:
Hezbollah is the Arab world’s most significant paramilitary force, with a robust internal structure and an arsenal that includes 150,000 precision-guided missiles, according to Israeli estimates. In recent years, Hezbollah sent forces to Syria to help fellow Iranian ally President Bashar Assad against armed opposition groups. It also supported the growth of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, Yemen and Syria.
For Hezbollah, fully entering the Israel-Hamas war would risk dragging Lebanon — beset by economic calamity and internal political tensions — into a conflict it can ill afford, fueling domestic opposition to the group. But staying on the sidelines as Israeli troops take control of the Gaza Strip could compromise Hezbollah’s credibility, and a Hamas defeat would be a blow to Iran.” [AP News]
“The US may have developed the first mass-production automobile, but more than a century later it’s China that’s leading the electric-vehicle revolution.
That’s put the shift from the internal combustion engine to batteries firmly at the heart of geopolitical rivalries.
In a world bristling with upheaval, the transition to EVs is already reshaping economies and global alliances. BloombergNEF forecasts the cumulative value of all forms of EV sales will hit $8.8 trillion by 2030 and $57 trillion by 2050 in its base-case scenario.
China, with a more than 80% share of the world’s lithium-ion battery capacity, is in pole position to capitalize. US President Joe Biden has responded with his Inflation Reduction Act armed with billions of dollars to lure producers to America and its key trading partners.
Yet while Western automakers are expanding fast in Mexico to sell EVs across the northern border, Chinese firms are ramping up sales to local consumers.
In Thailand, which Japanese investment helped turn into a global auto-making powerhouse, Chinese money is pouring in to build EVs.
With the bulk of today’s battery minerals supplied by exporters like China, Chile, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the search is on for alternative sources.
Canada’s so-called ‘Ring of Fire,’ a landscape of rivers and pine forests in the far north loaded with nickel, copper, chromite and platinum, would be a natural source for the US industry.
But development faces environmental concerns: The area of peat and wetlands stores an estimated 35 billion tons of carbon ever year.
The realignment appears unstoppable nonetheless, as the need to end our addiction to fossil fuels becomes ever more urgent. Last month was the warmest October on record, scientists say, and 2023 is ‘virtually certain’ to be the hottest year ever.
For the winners and losers in the EV race, the stakes are enormous.” — Karl Maier [Bloomberg]
A copper-cobalt artisanal mine near Kolwezi in Congo on June 20. Photographer: Arlette Bashizi/The Washington Post/Getty Images
“Pacific pivot. After four days of shuttle diplomacy across the Middle East, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken flew to Tokyo to discuss the Israel-Hamas war with other G-7 foreign ministers. He urged the group to speak in ‘one clear voice’ on expanding aid for civilians in Gaza and pushed for continued support of Israel.
But rising conflict in the Middle East is far from Blinken’s only concern. Throughout his upcoming travels across the Indo-Pacific this week, Blinken plans to address Russia’s continued war in Ukraine as well as China’s increased assertiveness in the region. On Wednesday, Blinken visits Seoul to meet with top South Korean officials, including President Yoon Suk-yeol, before traveling with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to New Delhi, where they will meet with their Indian counterparts for a 2+2 dialogue on China’s growing competitor status.” [Foreign Policy]
The U.S. and NATO said they will suspend participation in a Cold War arms treaty.
“Russia had formally withdrawn from the pact, which limits conventional forces in Europe, on Tuesday. Withdrawing from the treaty will give the U.S. more flexibility in Romania and Bulgaria near Ukraine and let Kyiv’s Western allies avoid sharing information with countries close to Russia. Separately, President Volodymyr Zelensky ruled out holding elections next year, explaining that the country should direct its resources to defense. Elections can’t take place in Ukraine under martial law, which was declared after Russia invaded in February 2022. Officials said elections would pose many challenges: Around six million citizens fled abroad, hundreds of thousands of soldiers are at the front, and Russia holds around one-fifth of their territory. More than 80% of Ukrainians say elections should be held only after the war ends, according to the independent pollster Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.” [Wall Street Journal]
“Lisbon’s corruption shake-up. Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa resigned on Tuesday mere hours after public prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for his chief of staff and police raided government buildings as part of a corruption investigation. Other top officials, such as the mayor of Sines, the minister of infrastructure, and the head of Portugal’s Environmental Agency, were named as suspects. Costa said he did not have prior knowledge of the investigation.
The unexpected announcement shines a light on Portugal’s lithium mining industry, as the investigation involves accusations that the suspects invoked the prime minister’s name and authority ‘to unblock procedures’ related to lithium exploration concessions. Trust in government institutions is ‘absolutely incompatible’ with having a prime minister who faces ‘suspicions about his integrity,’ Costa said.
President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will now decide whether to dissolve parliament and call elections or appoint a new prime minister. Costa, who has been in office since 2015, will remain on as caretaker leader until then.” [Foreign Policy]
“Island diplomacy. The Cook Islands kicked off the 52nd summit of the Pacific Islands Forum on Monday. The weeklong event will focus on China’s growing strategic influence in the region, deep sea mining and other attempts at diversifying members’ economies, and the substantial impact of global warming ahead of the United Nations climate change conference, which begins later this month.
Australia leads the decision-making body as the bloc’s largest economy. This makes Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to China this week particularly consequential, as Canberra is looking to strengthen ties with Beijing amid U.S. pressure to counter China. Albanese’s efforts culminated on Tuesday when he met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, restarting the two countries’ annual leaders’ meeting.” [Foreign Policy]
Kenya declares a surprise public holiday for a national campaign to plant 15 billion trees
“The Kenyan government announced Monday a surprise public holiday on Nov. 13 for a nationwide tree planting day, part of its ambitious plan to plant 15 billion trees by 2032.” Read More at AP News
“British authorities charged four men with stealing an 18-karat gold, fully functioning toilet from Blenheim Palace. Yes, you read that correctly. Just days after it was installed, visitors to Winston Churchill’s birthplace took the $1.25 million commode—which is now valued at a whopping $5.93 million. Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan, who created the bathroom throne, said he hopes the robbery was ‘a kind of Robin Hood-inspired action,’ but the toilet’s location is still unknown. Well, when you’ve got to go ….” [Foreign Policy]
Housing market
“The housing market in the US is the least affordable it has been since 1984, and analysts aren't expecting it to rebound in the near term. It now takes nearly 41% of the median household's monthly income to cover the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home, new data shows. This comes as the painful combination of high mortgage rates, soaring home prices, and low inventory is pushing the American dream further from reach for many prospective homebuyers. After seven consecutive weekly increases, the 30-year fixed rate stands at around 7.7% — that's miles away from the pre-Covid rate of 3.8% in the fall of 2019. Climate change is also damaging the market as acquiring homeowners' insurance remains challenging in areas that frequently experience extreme weather events.” [CNN]
Behind the Curtain: What AI architects fear most
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
“Brace yourself: You will soon need to wonder if what you see — not just what you read — is real across every social media platform, Axios' Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write.
Why it matters: Open AI and other creators of artificial intelligence technologies are close to releasing tools that make the easy — almost magical — creation of fake videos ubiquitous.
One leading AI architect told us that in private tests, they no longer can distinguish fake from real — which they never thought would be possible so soon.
This technology will be available to everyone, including bad international actors, as soon as early 2024.
Making matters worse, this will hit when the biggest social platforms have cut the staff policing fake content.
The big picture: Just as the 2024 presidential race hits high gear, more people will have more tools to create more misinformation or fake content on more platforms — with less policing. It will make 2020, a hot mess of misinformation, seem like a safe space for sanity.
A former top national security official told us Vladimir Putin sees these tools as an easy, low-cost, scalable way to help tear apart Americans.
Yes, the White House and some congressional leaders want regulations to call out real versus fake videos. The top idea: mandating watermarking so it'll be clear what videos are AI-generated.
But researchers have tried that. The tech doesn't work yet.
‘Of course, it's a worry,’ said Reid Hoffman, co-creator of LinkedIn and forceful defender of AI.
‘It's one of the places where AI and amplification intelligencecould [produce] a negative outcome,’ he added.
Hoffman argues that open-source models (free for anyone to use) are the biggest threats. He backs and works on only closed models, including OpenAI's ChatGPT, because they can self-police.
Sam Altman, co-founder and CEO of OpenAI, told us: ‘This is an important near-term risk for the industry to address. We need a combination of responsible model deployment and public awareness.’
‘We also need continued collaboration across the AI industry, including with distribution channels like social media,’ he added.
Reality check: The best self-policing in the world won't stop the faucet of fake. The sludge will flow. Fast. Furiously.
It could get so bad that some AI architects told us they're pushing to speed up the release of powerful new versions so the public can deal with the consequences — and adapt — long before the election.
A senior White House official told us officials' biggest concern is the use of this technology and other AI capabilities to dupe voters, scam consumers on a massive scale and carry out cyberattacks.
Another sick use: revenge porn. Most fake video content in early waves of AI misuse is porn.” [Axios]
Shimmering galaxies revealed in new photos by European space telescope
“Scientists on Tuesday unveiled the first pictures taken by the European space telescope Euclid, a shimmering and stunning collection of galaxies too numerous to count.” Read More at AP News
Patrick Dempsey named People's Sexiest Man Alive for 2023
“Patrick Dempsey, known fondly as McDreamy to many, has been named People magazine's Sexiest Man Alive of 2023, late-night host Jimmy Kimmel revealed during his talk show Tuesday. The ‘Grey's Anatomy’ heartthrob and race car driver succeeds last year's recipient, actor and ‘Captain America’ star Chris Evans. ‘I'm glad it's happening at this point in my life,’ the 57-year-old actor told People about the honor.” Read more at USA Today
Patrick Dempsey during the 80th edition of the Venice Film Festival, Aug. 31, 2023, in Venice, Italy.
Vianney Le Caer, Vianney Le Caer/Invision/AP