The Full Belmonte, 1/17/2023
People cross a flooded street as they check out of a hotel in San Diego on Monday.
Storms
“After an onslaught of atmospheric rivers recently battered California with flooding, a much-needed break from the rain is finally in sight. Flood watches that covered millions in coastal Central California have expired, though crews will be busy cleaning up the damage over the next several weeks. The storm system is now advancing farther inland and is expected to bring heavy snowfall into the Four Corners Region. Up to two feet of new snow is expected in parts of Colorado by this evening, while rain is in the forecast for much of the Southwest. By midweek, the threat will be in the South. The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted an area from East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley for the potential for strong storms.” [CNN]
House Republicans Face Internal Fight on Where to Cut Federal Spending
Military costs and Social Security and Medicare outlays are areas of concern
Kevin McCarthy’s election as speaker was tied to a call for a resolution leading to a balanced budget. PHOTO: ANNA MONEYMAKER/GETTY IMAGES
“WASHINGTON—House Republicans are gearing up for a tense intraparty fight, with factions ready to face off over where and how deeply to propose cutting federal spending, a central pledge in the midterm campaign.
Republicans have said they are determined to cut spending despite Democrats’ objections. But first they have to produce their own plan, pitting Republicans who want to protect military spending against those who see such expenditures as fair game in any negotiations alongside cuts to domestic programs.
Republicans will also need to decide whether they want to pursue money-saving changes to Medicare and Social Security, which many GOP lawmakers would like to tackle, but such a step is seen as politically perilous.
Republicans including Rep. Michael Waltz of Florida say military spending must be protected.PHOTO: ERIC LEE/BLOOMBERG NEWS
The result of that debate will determine the GOP’s hand going into an expected high-stakes confrontation with Democrats over raising the debt ceiling, which the Treasury Department said must be addressed by early June. Many Republicans have said they see the debt ceiling—which must be raised so the Treasury can borrow more money to finance the nation’s existing obligations—as their prime opportunity to press for spending reductions in negotiations with the Senate, which Democrats control.
Earlier this month, spending plans became a key part of negotiations between now-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) and a group of holdouts including Rep. Chip Roy (R., Texas), which was blocking Mr. McCarthy’s path to the gavel. Under the agreement that got Mr. McCarthy voted in as speaker, the House Budget Committee, which is responsible for a budget blueprint, must produce a resolution that balances the budget in no more than 10 years.
According to the deal, the blueprint must use as its starting point the level of fiscal 2022 spending, said Rep. Michael Waltz (R., Fla.), who was briefed by the deal’s negotiators and members of the House Appropriations Committee. That level would effectively erase the spending increase that Congress approved before Christmas in a $1.65 trillion omnibus bill, which all Democrats in both chambers and some Republicans supported.
In theory, resetting fiscal 2024 spending to 2022 levels would result in a roughly $130 billion cut in discretionary spending from current 2023 levels. That could include about a $75 billion cut to military spending. Alternatively, Republicans could decide to maintain or boost military spending at the expense of domestic programs. These so-called discretionary programs make up about one-third of the federal budget.
Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas was one of the holdouts who stalled the election of speaker.PHOTO: ANNA MONEYMAKER/GETTY IMAGES
‘There’s waste in every segment of the budget, including defense,’ Rep. Tom McClintock(R., Calif.), who has suggested another look at possible military-base realignments and closures. ‘There’s a lot in the defense budget that we need to look at, not on an across-the-board basis, but on an individual, item-by-item basis. And that’s true of the entire budget.’
Others cited weariness over funding related to the Russia-Ukraine war. ‘I think the mood of the country has shifted pretty much to no more Ukraine money,’ said Doug LaMalfa (R., Calif.). ‘So I think they’re going to have to strongly demonstrate that it’s going to be a good value and the right priority,’ he added.
Congress approved roughly $100 billion in aid for Ukraine last year with broad bipartisan support, but some Republicans have warned that they could try to block future funding.
Many have said military spending must be protected. ‘We can’t have China front and center and then end up going backwards on defense,’ Mr. Waltz said. ‘This is all a battle to be had, and you’ve seen reflections of it.’
Republicans have said cuts are needed to shrink the federal deficit, which was roughly $1.4 trillion in fiscal year 2022, which ended Sept. 30. The deficit is set to widen in coming years because of rising spending on entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare and interest costs. Both parties have helped add to the deficit, through tax cuts as well as Covid-19 relief bills.
In comments Sunday on Fox News, Mr. McCarthy didn’t commit to specific cuts, nor did he rule out any parts of the budget for reductions. Of the military, he said, ‘I’m sure they can find some places that they could be more efficient,’ while adding, ‘every single level of government should be doing that.’
Democratic lawmakers and the White House have called the GOP’s effort to tie budget cuts to the debt ceiling irresponsible and said that deep reductions in spending have no chance of passage.
‘The debt ceiling shouldn’t be held hostage to this sort of conversation,’ said Rep. Richard Neal (D., Mass.).
On Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called on Congress to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, warning that the government could become unable to pay its bills after early June.
Ms. Yellen said the government would hit the $31.4 trillion borrowing limit on Jan. 19, when the Treasury will begin implementing measures to manage the government’s cash flow.
Because the agreement that cleared the way for Mr. McCarthy to become speaker leaves a lot of room for Republicans to sort out where to set military spending, and because members of the Appropriations Committee have regularly ignored resolutions from their budget-writing colleagues, some lawmakers who try to protect the national-security budget said they feel confident that military spending ultimately will be spared.
‘We’re going to be needing to add to defense going forward,’ said Rep. Tom Cole (R., Okla.), a longtime member of the Appropriations Committee, pointing to dangers in Ukraine and Afghanistan. ‘I don’t think even a static budget makes a lot of sense.’ Asked if military spending would be spared, Appropriations Committee Chair Kay Granger (R., Texas) said: ‘I believe it will. That’s certainly my position.’
Other Republicans warn that nothing is settled. ‘We’re fighting hard for our national security,’ said Rep. Ken Calvert (R., Calif.), the chairman of the defense appropriations subcommittee.
Some Republicans are pushing for changes to programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which are separate from discretionary spending. Together those two programs make up over a third of federal spending, and past efforts to reduce or adjust benefits have proved politically toxic.
‘We have to deal with entitlements at some point,’ Mr. Cole said. ‘It’s one of the great failures of Congress, both left and right. That doesn’t always mean cuts.’ He pointed to Congress’s 1983 decision to follow the recommendations of a commission and gradually raise the age for receiving full retirement benefits to 67 years old for people born in 1960 or later.
A 2011 proposal by then-Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) to lower Medicare costs was heavily criticized by Democrats. One ad cast the proposal as akin to rolling an elderly woman off a cliff. Mr. McCarthy has said he would protect Social Security and Medicare while also saying all costs need to be scrutinized.
A budget produced by the Republican Study Committee, which represents a swath of conservatives, calls for saving money by bumping up the eligibility ages for full benefits for Social Security and Medicare. House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R., Texas), who supports changing entitlement programs by raising the eligibility age, will take the lead on putting together the budget.
One Democrat said that Republicans’ plans will be unsettling for Americans and damage the GOP’s own political future.
‘The Republican majority is going to relive their dreams again—Medicare, Social Security, raising the age, means-testing,’ said Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D., Ariz.). ‘It’s a very important third rail. And politically, I think it’s a mistake.’” [Wall Street Journal]
Losing New Mexico Candidate Arrested Over Shootings at Democrats’ Homes
Albuquerque authorities say Solomon Peña helped orchestrate the shootings and participated in at least one of them
Solomon Peña was taken into custody by Albuquerque police.PHOTO: ROBERTO E. ROSALES/THE ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL/ASSOCIATED PRESS
By Dan Frosch
“A former Republican candidate for the New Mexico state legislature was arrested Monday for his suspected involvement in a string of recent drive-by shootings at the homes of several Democratic elected officials.
Solomon Peña, 39, who lost his race for state representative to his Democratic opponent in November, helped orchestrate the shootings and participated in at least one of them, Albuquerque police said. The homes of two county officials and two state legislators, including the New Mexico House speaker, were hit in the drive-by shootings, according to police. Nobody was hurt in the incidents, which took place over the past several weeks, though the homes sustained damage.
‘We believe he was the mastermind behind this,’ said Albuquerque Police chief Harold Medina.
Mr. Peña was upset after losing his race, authorities said, and subsequently paid four other men cash and sent text messages with home addresses where he wanted them to shoot. Following the most recent shooting, which took place on Jan. 3, a car was pulled over in connection to the incident, police said, and two firearms and more than 800 fentanyl pills were seized. The car was owned by Mr. Peña, police said in a news release sent out Monday night.
Police said Mr. Peña also went with the men and attempted to shoot at one of the homes, but the AR pistol he was using malfunctioned. One of the other men fired more than a dozen rounds from a separate handgun during that particular shooting, police said.
Earlier this month, police also arrested another man for his alleged involvement in the incidents.
Police said that following his election loss last year, Mr. Peña approached several local lawmakers unannounced at their homes saying he had evidence the election was fraudulent. He grew angry when his entreaties were ignored, they said, and began executing his plan to shoot at the various homes of the Democratic officials.
In the news release, police noted that Mr. Peña had been sued by his Democratic opponent in August 2022, who argued that Mr. Peña was ineligible to serve in the state legislature because he is a felon. A judge ruled in September that Mr. Peña could remain on the ballot.
Mr. Peña was in the process of being booked into the Albuquerque jail on Monday night. A lawyer or representative for Mr. Peña couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.
‘APD essentially discovered what we had all feared and what we had suspected: that these shootings were indeed politically motivated,’ said Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller, a Democrat.” [Wall Street Journal]
Gun violence
“Another spate of shootings this week is shaking up communities across the US. At least six people, including a mother and her 6-month-old baby, are dead after a ‘cartel-style execution’ occurred Monday in the town of Goshen, California. The shooting appears to be gang-related, the Tulare County Sheriff's Office said. Separately, eight people were shot Monday at a block party in Fort Pierce, Florida, where the community was gathering to celebrate Martin Luther King Jr. Day. An investigation is ongoing to identify the shooter, authorities said. This incident marks the 30th mass shooting in the country this year, according to the Gun Violence Archive. So far in 2023, the US is averaging about two mass shootings per day.” [Axios]
Biden documents
“Following the discovery of misplaced classified documents from President Joe Biden's time as vice president, House Republicans are demanding that the White House turn over more information -- including any visitors logs to Biden's private residence, where a batch of documents was found. The White House counsel's office, however, said there are no visitors logs that track guests who come and go at Biden's home in Wilmington, Delaware. ‘Like every President across decades of modern history, his personal residence is personal,’ the counsel's office said in a statement Monday. Some Republicans are crying foul, saying former President Donald Trump was treated differently when FBI agents searched his Mar-a-Lago residence last August. Meanwhile, the White House is labeling the Republican investigations into the documents as ‘shamelessly hypocritical.’” [CNN]
Power of Davos
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
“Attendance is booming this week at the first full-fledged World Economic Forum in three years, drawing CEOs and powerhouses of government, tech and media to the Alps of Davos, Switzerland.
According to organizers, this year's forum will host a record number of business and government leaders — 50 heads of state, 56 finance ministers, 19 central bank governors and 600+ CEOs.
A WEF official told reporters they'd never had so few cancellations.
Why it matters: Davos is the world's greatest hotel lobby. Power players can pack their schedules with high-level meetings, sip champagne with clients and eye competitors, Axios' Dave Lawler and Courtenay Brown write.
State of play: Davos faces growing skepticism and competition, leading some to contend that it could slide into irrelevance.
But Davos still holds an allure for companies and countries seeking global investment and respect. The new presidents of Colombia and the Philippines are attending. Startup founders are competing for attention with blue-chip companies.
Andy Baldwin, global managing partner for EY, tells Axios the professional services giant keeps coming back to Davos because of the unique ‘constellation’ of high-level attendees across sectors. He'll be seeing clients from around the world all week, and ‘I'll see the CEOs.’
Davos yesterday. Photo: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images
The big picture: Davos' celebration of globalization — and core premise of bringing the international elite together to solve global problems — can feel like a relic of the post-Cold War haze.
Quips about taking private planes to a ski resort to lament climate change have become an annual tradition.
Reality check: A clear majority of the world leaders are from Europe, when global power is seeping away from the continent. Just one G7 leader — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz — made the trip.
President Biden isn't coming. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is traveling to Switzerland to meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He tomorrow, but not stopping in Davos.
Many of the usual suspects are here: the CEOs of JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs ... European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde ... U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres.
Climate envoy John Kerry and Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh are among U.S. attendees.
The bottom line: Davos is a self-perpetuating phenomenon. As long as global elites keep coming, global elites will keep coming to meet them.” [Axios]
China population falls for first time in 60+ years
Beijing financial district on Wednesday, with buildings under construction. Photo: Tingshu Wang/Reuters
“China reported a decline in population for the first time since 1961, marking the beginning of a demographic crisis for the world's most populous country.
Why it matters: It's a clear inflection point that will slowly but dramatically change Chinese society and politics over the next few decades, Axios' Rebecca Falconer and Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian write.
By the numbers: 850,000 fewer people lived in China at the end of 2022 compared to the previous year, according to data from Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics.
The U.N. projects India will overtake China as the world's most populous nation this year.
Zoom in: China's economy grew just 3% last year, well short of the ruling Chinese Communist Party's 5.5% target.
Except for 2020, that's the country's worst GDP figure since 1976 — the year Mao Zedong died, The Wall Street Journal reports [Axios]
China’s Economic Growth Fell to Near-Historic Lows as Covid Took a Bite
The outlook for 2023 has been lifted by optimism around the easing of Covid restrictions
“SINGAPORE—China’s economy grew at one of its slowest rates in decades last year as repeated lockdowns hammered households and businesses, emphasizing the high cost of zero-tolerance Covid-19 policies that Beijing abruptly abandoned at the end of 2022.
China’s economy expanded 3% in 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday, a sharp slowdown from the 8.1% pace recorded in 2021. Aside from 2020, when the economy grew only 2.2%, last year marked the worst year for gross domestic product growth in China since 1976, the year that Mao Zedong’s death ended the decade of strife known as the Cultural Revolution, according to World Bank data.
The ditching of almost all public-health restrictions in China after nearly three years of smothering even tiny virus outbreaks sets the stage for an economic rebound in 2023. Economists expect a consumer-led recovery in China this year to buttress global growth as the U.S. and Europe flirt with recession.
The easing of public-health restrictions is part of a broader policy reset in China aimed at revitalizing the economy. Officials have also signaled the end of a clampdown on technology companies, relaxed tough regulations on the real-estate sector and lifted a ban on Australian coal.
How potent the rebound will be is still uncertain. Demand for Chinese exports is sinking as the global economy slows. Consumer confidence is on the floor after three years of sporadic lockdowns. Many economists worry that scarring from the pandemic, in the form of vanished jobs and closed businesses, may take time to heal.
The world’s second-largest economy also faces an array of longer-term challenges, including a widening confrontation with the U.S. and rapidly worsening demographics. New figures Tuesday showed China’s population shrank in 2022 for the first time since the early 1960s, falling by 850,000 to 1.412 billion as a result of years of sinking birthrates.
Such a historic shift would make it harder to sustain economic growth in China without improvements in worker productivity, imperiling Beijing’s goal of leaving middle-income status behind and overtaking the U.S. as the world’s largest economy….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Scottish Law on Gender Recognition Blocked by U.K. Government
Law passed by Scottish parliament eliminates need for medical certificate for gender recognition and lowers age to 16 from 18
Secretary of State for Scotland Alister Jack said the law ‘would have a significant impact’ on equalities rules in other parts of the U.K.PHOTO: TAYFUN SALCI/ZUMA PRESS
“The U.K. government on Monday blocked a law voted by Scotland’s parliament on gender recognition, the first time that the London-based government has stopped a Scottish law from passing, in a move that will deepen divisions between Scottish nationalists and the U.K.
The controversial Scottish law, passed in November, makes it easier for transgender people to get official government recognition of their acquired gender by removing any need for a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria and lowering the age from 18 to 16.
‘I have not taken this decision lightly,’ said the Secretary of State for Scotland Alister Jack. He added the law ‘would have a significant impact’ on equalities laws that govern the U.K. as a whole.
U.K. government officials have expressed concerns in recent weeks that the new legislation could undermine women’s rights as laid out in a 2010 law. Kemi Badenoch, the government’s women and equalities minister, has said she worries the new legislation could be used by predatory males to self-declare themselves transgender and access women-only bathrooms or even shelters for abused women.
Other government officials have expressed concern about having different rights for transgender people in different parts of the country.
In the 25 years since some decision-making powers were devolved to the Scottish parliament, this is the first time the government in Westminster has used a so-called section 35 order to overrule Scottish lawmakers in Edinburgh and block a law they voted to introduce. The Scottish government has powers over certain issues, such as healthcare and education, but other matters, including national security, can only be decided by the British parliament in London.
Recently a British court ruled that the Scottish assembly couldn’t vote for a legally binding referendum on Scottish independence because matters of the union between England and Scotland are reserved for the government in London. However the Scottish parliament hadn’t voted on the matter.
The move to block the Scottish lawmakers will further fuel the Scottish National Party’s argument that Scotland’s desires aren’t being represented by the parliament in Westminster and so the Scots should break away from the 316-year union between the two nations….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Ukraine authorities begin 'criminal proceedings'
A deadly Kremlin attack on civilians.
Civilian strike shows Kremlin is digging in
“Ukraine authorities began ‘criminal proceedings’ Monday against Russian soldiers blamed for the missile strike that devastated a nine-story apartment building in Ukraine and killed at least 40 people, one of Moscow's deadliest attacks on civilians away from battle areas.
One thing to know: Western analysts pointed to signs indicating the Kremlin is digging in for a drawn-out war after almost 11 months of fighting.
•Seventy-two apartments were destroyed in the attacks and 236 were damaged, leaving hundreds of Ukrainians homeless in the dead of winter. The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, called the strike, and others like it, ‘inhumane aggression’ because it directly targeted civilians.
•The Kremlin appears to be preparing to conduct a decisive strategic action in the next six months intended to regain the initiative and end Ukraine’s string of operational successes, a Washington-based think tank warns.” [USA Today]
People watch as emergency workers continue to search the remains of a residential building that was struck by a Russian missile Saturday on January 16, 2023 in Dnipro, Ukraine. Spencer Platt, Getty Images
Nepal to send data recorder from crash to France
“Nepalese authorities on Tuesday began returning to families the bodies of victims of a flight that crashed Sunday in the foothills of the Himalayas, killing at least 70 of the 72 people aboard. Officials said they were sending the aircraft’s data recorder to France for analysis as they try to determine what caused the country’s deadliest plane accident in 30 years. Searchers found the plane’s cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder on Monday, and combed through debris scattered down a gorge in search of the people who remain missing, but are presumed dead. One body was found Tuesday, and two remain missing.” Read more at USA Today
A woman wails as she waits to receive the body of a relative, victim of a plane crash, at a hospital in Pokhara, Nepal, Monday, Jan 16, 2023.
Yunish Gurung, AP
With 50 Dead in Peru, a Referendum on Democracy
Weeks after the ouster of a leftist president, persistent protests and a mounting death toll have exacerbated widespread disillusionment with the country’s young democracy.
“Highways blocked with giant boulders and broken glass. Entire cities shuttered by mass protests. Fifty families mourning their dead. Calls for a new president, a new constitution, a new governing system altogether. Pledges to take the fight to Lima, the capital. Local officials warning that the country is headed toward anarchy.
A protest anthem shouted in the streets: ‘This democracy is no longer a democracy.’
Rather than fade, protests in rural Peru that began more than a month ago over the ouster of the former president have only grown in size and in the scope of demonstrators’ demands, paralyzing entire sections of the country and threatening efforts by the new president, Dina Boluarte, to gain control.
The unrest is now far broader than anger over who is running the country. Instead, it represents a profound frustration with Peru’s young democracy, which protesters say has failed to address a yawning gap between the rich and the poor and between Lima and the country’s rural areas.
Democracy, they say, has largely helped a small elite — the political class, the rich and corporate executives — accumulate power and wealth, while providing few benefits to many other Peruvians.
More broadly, the crisis in Peru reflects an erosion of trust in democracies across Latin America, fueled by states that ‘violate citizens’ rights, fail to provide security and quality public services, and are captured by powerful interests,’ according to a new essayin The Journal of Democracy….” Read more at New York Times
“Vietnam purge | President Nguyen Xuan Phuc resigned and lost his position in the Communist Party’s top bodies in an unparalleled shakeupas party boss Nguyen Phu Trong’s anti-corruption purge widens in the southeast Asian nation. His ouster comes shortly after two deputy premiers resigned over bribery probes.” [Bloomberg]
Crypto
“Cryptocurrencies are rebounding after getting pummeled by losses for the better part of last year. This is prompting speculation that the so-called crypto winter -- the digital asset world's equivalent of a bear market -- is over. Bitcoin, the world's most popular crypto, is up 25% over the past month, hovering above $20,000 for the first time since November, following the collapse of the crypto trading platform FTX. Ethereum, the No. 2 crypto, is up more than 30% over the past month, trading above $1,500 on Monday. Still, Bitcoin is substantially down from its peak in November 2021, just shy of $69,000. Two months ago, when FTX imploded and sent shock waves through the industry, bitcoin plummeted to a two-year low of $15,480.” [CNN]
January 17, 2023
By German Lopez
Good morning. Recent winters have brought the worst of Covid, but this season has not so far.
Covid testing in Salt Lake City last month.Rick Bowmer/Associated Press
A bump, not a surge
“Some of the worst days of Covid in the U.S. have come as winters have settled in, and surges led hospitals to overflow and caused hundreds of thousands of deaths.
A comparable surge has yet to materialize on a similar timeline this winter. By now, hospitalizations in particular would have started to sharply rise. Instead, data suggests that more of a Covid bump than a surge has emerged. Recent hospitalization figures are much lower than the past, largest surges, as this chart by my colleague Ashley Wu demonstrates:
Data is through Jan. 12, 2023; chart shows a seven-day daily average. | Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
There is some geographic variation. Covid hospitalizations have risen more quickly in the Northeast and South in recent weeks, potentially driven by a new Omicron subvariant. But even there, hospitalization levels are closer to the summer increase caused by the Delta variant in 2021 than to the following winter surge caused by the Omicron variant.
Some Western states are reporting among their lowest hospitalization rates since the pandemic began.
Data is through Jan. 12, 2023; chart shows a seven-day daily average. | Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
After years of winter surges, the absence of one translates to potentially tens of thousands fewer deaths and is worth celebrating, even if it ends up being a temporary reprieve. Today’s newsletter will look at the lack of a winter surge so far and what that means for Covid’s future.
Population immunity
Why have we avoided the typical winter surge? Because the U.S. population has, collectively, built up immunity to the virus. Much of that is thanks to vaccines and boosters. But repeated exposure to the virus and infections have played a significant role, too.
Anecdotally, experts and others still report a lot of sickness around them — but not hospitalizations or deaths. This is the outcome you would expect to see with Covid in a population with higher levels of immunity: Vaccines and past infection seem to offer strong protection from the worst outcomes of the virus, but they don’t fully prevent infection and milder disease.
‘What you’re seeing is a transition to ongoing transmission but much milder infections,’ said Dr. Céline Gounder, a senior fellow at the Kaiser Family Foundation.
People’s actions may have suppressed a winter surge, too. In the fall, experts and news outlets warned of a possible simultaneous surge of Covid, flu and R.S.V. Some Americans may have responded by behaving more cautiously — for example, by wearing masks in public and avoiding larger gatherings. But those behavior changes are not widespread, certainly not to the levels of 2020.
An important caveat to all of this: The data is messy. Covid case totals in particular are unreliable because fewer people are testing and reporting results.
Even the counts for hospitalizations and deaths are less accurate than they once were. For example, someone may show up to the hospital for an issue unrelated to Covid, test positive for the virus and get marked down as a Covid hospitalization. Massachusetts officials estimate that only about one-third of people hospitalized with Covid are actually there for Covid-related illness.
But that phenomenon indicates that Covid hospitalizations are overcounted, which would mean that, if anything, the data overstates the size of the current bump.
It amounts to a victory for public health: Vaccines have managed to tame Covid, relative to 2020 and 2021.
Future risks
The good news does not mean that Covid is now a concern of the past.
Older and immunocompromised people are still at significant risk. More than 90 percent of deaths are now among Americans 65 and older. Hospitalizations are nearly five times higher among Americans 70 and older than among Americans of all ages.
Data is through Jan. 12, 2023. | Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
If public health interventions helped tame Covid this winter, then relaxing too much could lead to a surge. But experts aren’t envisioning a return to 2020-style lockdowns or constant masking and testing.
Their recommendations are less demanding: Get boosters, isolate when sick and mask in indoor public spaces if the virus is quickly spreading. And medications like Paxlovid should be available for those who are sick. (They aren’t currently available enough because doctors are still too reluctant to prescribe Paxlovid, especially to older patients, experts warned. I’ll write about that issue in a future newsletter.)
‘We’ve made progress. We are getting ahead of this. People know what to do,’ said Saskia Popescu, an epidemiologist at George Mason University. ‘But it worries me, because people also use that progress as an excuse to not be as vigilant and not take it so seriously.’” [New York Times]
Prescott outshines Brady, Cowboys dominate Buccaneers 31-14
By FRED GOODALL
“TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — So much for notion that Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys might not be up to the challenge of beating Tom Brady.
Prescott played his best game in weeks, throwing for four touchdowns and running for another to answer critics of ‘America’s Team’ with a 31-14 rout of Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an NFC wild-card playoff game on Monday night.
‘It just shows he’s resilient,’ Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons said. ‘The light’s different on Dak. I think the criticism is unfair and unjust sometimes. But the way he handles it, the way he comes back every time and shows who he truly is, it’s a credit to the work he puts in. It makes us keep believing every time.’
Prescott completed 25 of 33 passes for 305 yards and played turnover-free ball for the first time in eight games as the Cowboys (13-5) dominated the listless Bucs (8-10) in what may turn out to be Brady’s last game in a Tampa Bay uniform….” Read more at AP News
The GOAT's sad farewell?
Kim Klement / USA Today
“There is a special, depressing moment teams reach in the NFL: the playoff loss so bad, your entire organization must reconsider its trajectory. That’s how badly the Cowboys beat the Buccaneers last night.
It starts with Tom Brady. Where does he go from here? He looked awful. Feeble, even. It was a sad sight for the most accomplished quarterback in NFL history. There’s been chatter that Brady could land somewhere else in free agency next year — as a 46-year-old, no less — but this could change things. Maybe the FOX booth is next?
Do the Bucs keep Todd Bowles? It was a bad year for a team that was supposed to be a contender. They can say they made the playoffs, yes, but they finished 8-10 and skated into the postseason thanks to a historically awful NFC South. Hard to thump your chest about that. Expect at least a staff shakeup.
The Cowboys enjoy the opposite: a direction-affirming result for a team that’d looked adrift lately. Dak Prescott threw four touchdowns and ran for another. If he can look this crisp, the Cowboys have a real shot to win the NFC. They even survived four missed PATs from kicker Brett Maher.
We’ll have plenty of time to talk Cowboys. The focus this morning will be on Brady, whose postgame comments were noncommittal on the future.” [The Athletic]
Australian Open
“Some players at the Australian Open expressed irritation today after extreme heat postponed play for hours at the tennis tournament. As temperatures reached almost 97 degrees Fahrenheit, organizers announced at around 2 p.m. local time that matches on outdoor courts would come to a halt. Separately, a Russian flag that was displayed in the stands at the Grand Slam event has sparked controversy and a rules update from Tennis Australia. Fans will no longer be allowed to bring Russian or Belarusian flags to the site of the tournament, officials said, citing the conflict in Ukraine. The decision comes after Ukraine's ambassador to Australia ‘strongly condemn[ed’ the Russian flag being displayed Monday during the first-round match between Ukraine's Kateryna Baindl and Russia's Kamilla Rakhimova.” [CNN]
“Lives Lived: Gina Lollobrigida was an Italian movie actress who became a major European sex symbol. She had a second career as an artist and filmmaker. Lollobrigida died at 95.” [New York Times]