The Full Belmonte, 11/7/2022
President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama take part in a campaign rally in Philadelphia on Saturday with Josh Shapiro, center right, and John Fetterman.
Midterms
“On the eve of Tuesday's midterm elections, candidates across the US are making their closing arguments before voters head to the polls. Several presidents have also descended on various states for a final midterm push. President Joe Biden is set to join a rally tonight in Maryland. Former President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis held dueling events in Florida on Sunday. On Saturday, Biden made a rare joint appearance with former President Barack Obama to boost Democratic candidate John Fetterman in the key state of Pennsylvania, while Trump also held a rally in the state. Voters will decide the fate of both chambers of Congress, with all 435 seats of the House up for grabs. Thirty-five of the 100 Senate seats are also on the line -- in addition to dozens of governorships, secretaries of state and attorneys general. Find out how and when to vote in your state here.”
Republicans sue to disqualify thousands of mail ballots in swing states
The lawsuits coincide with a systemic effort by GOP leaders to persuade voters to cast ballots in person, not absentee
“Republican officials and candidates in at least three battleground states are pushing to disqualify thousands of mail ballots after urging their own supporters to vote on Election Day, in what critics are calling a concerted attempt at partisan voter suppression.
In Pennsylvania, the state Supreme Court has agreed with the Republican National Committee that election officials should not count ballots on which the voter neglected to put a date on the outer envelope — even in cases when the ballots arrive before Election Day. Thousands of ballots have been set aside as a result, enough to swing a close race.
In Michigan, Kristina Karamo, the Republican nominee for secretary of state, sued the top election official in Detroit last month, seeking to toss absentee ballots not cast in person with an ID, even though that runs contrary to state requirements. When asked in a recent court hearing, Karamo’s lawyer declined to say why the suit targets Detroit, a heavily Democratic, majority-Black city, and not the entire state.
And in Wisconsin, Republicans won a court ruling that will prevent some mail ballots from being counted when the required witness address is not complete.
Over the past two years, Republicans have waged a sustained campaign against alleged voter fraud. Experts say the litigation — which could significantly affect Tuesday’s vote — represents a parallel strategy of suing to disqualify mail ballots based on technicalities. While the rejections may have some basis in state law, experts say they appear to go against a principle, enshrined in federal law, of not disenfranchising voters for minor errors.
The suits coincide with a systematic attempt by Republicans — led by former president Donald Trump — to persuade GOP voters to cast their ballots only on Election Day. Critics argue that the overall purpose is to separate Republicans and Democrats by method of voting and then to use lawsuits to void mail ballots that are disproportionately Democratic.” Read more at Washington Post
Disinformation could keep millions of voters at home, analysts say
“Disinformation, or disseminating intentional lies disguised as truth, is a major concern ahead of Election Day Tuesday when it comes to getting people to vote. These mistruths are hard to trace yet powerful enough to swing U.S. elections. Sometimes the lies are designed to confuse people on how, when and where to vote. Sometimes the lies play on fears to try to make them vote a certain way. Researchers are tracking which actors are behind efforts to spread false information about poll closings or changed locations, from foreign operatives to U.S. politicians. And the lies are often targeted at communities of color.” Read more at USA Today
“Democrats are bracing for losses even in traditionally blue areas. Here are four potential election outcomes.” Read more at New York Times
“Russian trolls are spreading misinformation before tomorrow’s elections.” Read more at New York Times
“John Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s Democratic Senate candidate, is leaning into his health challenges on the campaign trial.” Read more at New York Times
“Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis, the top stars of the Republican Party, held competing rallies in Florida.” Read more at New York Times
An official ballot collector for the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections gives a voter their ‘I Voted’ sticker after depositing their mail-in ballots into a collection box in Cleveland, Ohio on November 6, 2022, ahead of the midterm elections.DUSTIN FRANZ, AFP via Getty Images
Storms
“Many Florida residents who are still recovering from Hurricane Ian are being asked to prepare for a possible tropical system later this week. Subtropical Storm Nicole has formed in the southwest Atlantic about 555 miles east of the Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center said, and could impact Florida on Election Day. Specifically, Tuesday's current forecast calls for breezy to gusty conditions for much of the Florida Peninsula and rain chances will increase throughout the day for central and eastern cities. Weather forecast models are showing at least 3 to 6 inches of rainfall across the state through Thursday, with isolated higher amounts possible. Meanwhile, forecasts show a second system in the Atlantic may develop, but it will not impact land over the next several days.”
Top Dems warn party is seen as extreme
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
“Third Way — a center-left think tank backed by some of the biggest names in Democratic politics — is sounding the alarm about deep-seated party flaws, based on its own new polling from Senate battlegrounds.
‘If Democrats manage to hold on to the House and Senate, it will be in spite of the party brand, not because of it,’ Third Way writes in a memo synthesizing its conclusions, shared first with Axios.
‘Despite a roster of GOP candidates who are extreme by any standard, voters see Democrats as just as extreme, as well as far less concerned about the issues that most worry them.’
Why it matters: Lifelong, respected Democrats are saying the quiet part out loud — that if Republicans have a huge night tomorrow, as polls are blaring, Democrats must blame ‘much deeper’ problems than simply the ‘historical trends’ that beset the party in power.
Flashback: James Carville, Ruy Teixeira and other Dems have been making this case for more than a year, seizing initially on the embrace of ‘defund the police’ by some progressives.
Former President Obama, in an interview last month with ‘Pod Save America,’ warned Democrats against being preachy: ‘[S]ometimes, people just want to not feel as if they are walking on eggshells. And they want some acknowledgment that life is messy and that all of us at any given moment can say things the wrong way, make mistakes.’
In a brutal bill of particulars, the Third Way memo says under the headings ‘Out of Touch on Priorities ... Out of Touch Ideologically ... Out of Touch on Values’:
‘Democrats are underwater on issues voters name as their highest priorities, including the economy, immigration, and crime.’
‘While Democrats maintain a lead on handling certain issues like abortion and climate change, voters also rank these issues as lower priorities.’
‘[V]oters question whether the party shares essential values like patriotism and the importance of hard work. ... Only 43% of voters say Democrats value hard work, compared to 58% for Republicans.’
‘[E]ven in the areas where Democrats are trusted more [including education], it is not clear that voters are sold on Democrats' approach.’
The bottom line: Democrats need to make major changes to the party brand to avoid another potential wipeout in 2024.” Read more at Axios
GOP to declare COVID over
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“President Biden told ‘60 Minutes’ in September that the pandemic was ‘over.’ If Republicans win control of Congress, they'll demand that U.S. policies reflect that, Axios' Andrew Solender and Victoria Knight report.
Why it matters: While many pandemic-era restrictions have already been rolled back, a full reversion to pre-COVID governance would have profound consequences for American life.
What we're hearing: Republicans will push to dismantle a number of lingering pandemic policies, with the U.S. military's vaccine mandate among the priorities, according to multiple GOP aides.
The intrigue: Republicans plan to dismantle the House's own remaining internal COVID safety mechanisms, senior GOP aides tell us.
That includes eliminating proxy voting on floor votes and scaling back the ability of members to participate in committee remotely.
The GOP also wants to remove remaining restrictions on Capitol visits.” Read more at Axios
GOP wins could revive fiscal austerity
Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios
“Republican victories in Tuesday's midterms could usher in a season of austerity in American politics, writes Javier E. David, Axios managing editor for business and markets.
Why it matters: Congress plays a big role in stimulating economic demand, which is keeping inflation high.
Daniel Clifton, partner at the Wall Street research firm Strategas, writes:
‘If Republicans win the House, Senate, or both, gridlock will ensue and therefore limit significant increases in federal spending. This will be viewed as a less inflationary outcome by financial markets.’
What's happening: Fiscal showdowns between the White House and a GOP-led Congress would reverberate in the fight against inflation and the perennial battle over whether to raise Uncle Sam's statutory credit limit.
Axios Macro co-authors Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown write in ‘ Brinkmanship comeback’ that the midterms ‘could create a new dynamic around U.S. fiscal policy — including a return to intense standoffs around the debt ceiling and federal spending that tend to rattle markets and fuel uncertainty.’
Reality check: The GOP talks a big game on austerity, but hasn't delivered.
During the 2016 campaign, Trump said he'd eliminate the national debt in eight years — and ended up adding to it substantially.
President George W. Bush inherited a surplus from President Clinton — and racked up huge deficits and debt.
The bottom line: Most of the new energy in the GOP is populist. If former President Trump becomes the party's standard-bearer again, any notion of austerity politics goes out the window.
But for sure there'll be gridlock — which could mean austerity in the short term.” Read more at Axios
World Leaders Convene for COP27
“More than 100 world leaders will convene in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, this week for the latest U.N. climate summit, or COP27, as unrelenting droughts and floods wreak havoc around the world and highlight the dangers of climate inaction.
During the summit, which runs from Nov. 6 to Nov. 18, heads of governments will take part in grueling negotiations covering everything from emissions targets to climate funding. There are a few exceptions: Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are not participating.
The conference is taking place as stark scenes from around the world underscore how climate change intensifies extreme weather. Deadly floods submerged one third of Pakistan just months ago; in East Africa, drought has plunged millions into food insecurity.
Such extreme events will likely become more frequent and intense if countries fail to slash emissions. Nations previously set a goal to limit warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, compared to preindustrial levels; above that point, tens of millions of people could face new climate hazards and the glaciers in Yosemite and Yellowstone National Park will likely vanish.
Scientists warn that the world is currently on track to shoot past that target. The past eight years were the warmest ever recorded, and the United Nations has said that the world is barreling toward at least 2.5 degrees of warming under current efforts.
‘Global and national climate commitments are falling pitifully short,’ said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres. ‘We are headed for a global catastrophe. The emissions gap is a byproduct of a commitments gap. A promises gap. An action gap.’
At COP27, one of the central issues being debated is how to address the challenges facing developing countries, many of whom are on the front lines of the climate crisis despite being responsible for a comparatively smaller percentage of global emissions. At COP27, these nations are pushing for a ‘loss and damage’ fund for already-suffered losses.
The summit has also cast a harsh light on Egypt’s poor human rights record, especially as authorities reportedly stifled dissent in the run-up to COP27. According to human rights groups, the Egyptian government has arrested 93 activists coordinating protests against the government as it hosts the summit.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Under scrutiny | UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces mounting unrest in his Conservative Party as questions swirl about his judgment after a key ally was accused of bullying a colleague. Wendy Morton, who was chief enforcer in former premier Liz Truss’s government, submitted a complaint over expletive-filled text messages Gavin Williamson sent her following the Queen’s death in September. Sunak appointed Williamson to his Cabinet last month.” Read more at Bloomberg
“India’s Supreme Court endorsed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s move to reserve 10% of government jobs and seats in educational institutions for ‘economically weaker’ people who don’t fall in other affirmative action categories.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Not welcome | Italy’s far-right government ordered ships carrying hundreds of migrants rescued at sea not to release all passengers upon arrival, reviving a policy expected to roil Germany and other European Union governments. Nongovernmental organization vessels carrying migrants were told to return to international waters once minors and vulnerable passengers disembarked.” Read more at Bloomberg
“South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol apologized to the nation for a deadly pre-Halloween crowd crush, with members of his government facing criticism over management of the incident that killed at least 156 people.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Iran’s weapons supply. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian publicly confirmed on Saturday that Tehran had shipped drones to Russia, although he said it happened before the war in Ukraine began.
Robert Malley, the U.S. Special Envoy for Iran, refuted his claims, tweeting: ‘Iran didn’t give a limited number of drones before the war. They transferred dozens just this summer & have military personnel in occupied Ukraine helping Russia use them against Ukrainian civilians.’” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Haiti’s fuel blockade. Haiti’s G9 gang federation has ended its blockade of a critical gas terminal in Port-au-Prince, its leader Jimmy Cherizier said on Sunday. The blockade, which began in September, sparked severe fuel shortages that deepened the country’s economic and humanitarian crises.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Protests shake Peru. Protests swept Peru on Saturday as thousands of people called for leftist President Pedro Castillo to step down. Castillo, who has already faced two impeachment votes, is now also facing a constitutional complaint over corruption.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“British-Japanese military ties. The United Kingdom and Japan are set to strengthen their military ties by signing a defense agreement in December, the Financial Times reported. The pact, a Reciprocal Access Agreement, will help facilitate joint drills and operations.” Read more at Foreign Policy
Ukraine
“About 4.5 million Ukrainians have been left without power today as Russia steps up its attacks on civilian infrastructure, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky. Households across the country have been disconnected from power under an emergency schedule aimed at stabilizing the nation's fragile electric grid. Ukraine's electricity infrastructure has been under severe strain since Russia began attacking power plants on October 10, ushering in fears of a cold, dark winter. The mayor of Kyiv has encouraged some residents to think about staying with family and friends outside of the main city if it is left without electricity or water. All possible action plans are being considered in the case of an emergency, but there are no current plans to evacuate the city, according to a statement from the Kyiv City Council.” Read more at CNN
Iran
“Iranian lawmakers have demanded that their state officials ‘show no leniency’ to protesters as thousands of people continue to rally on the streets despite the threat of arrest. In a letter cited by state-run Press TV on Sunday, the lawmakers call for protesters to be taught a ‘good lesson’ to deter others who threaten the authority of the Iranian government. The Islamic Republic is facing one of the biggest shows of dissent ever following the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman who died after being detained by the morality police allegedly for not wearing her hijab properly. The letter was signed by 227 of Iran's 290 members of Parliament, state media said. Iran has already charged at least 1,000 people in Tehran province for their alleged involvement in the nationwide protests.” Read more at CNN
Apple
“Amid strong global demand for Apple's iPhone 14 lineup, the tech giant announced Sunday that shipments will be ‘temporarily impacted’ by Covid restrictions in China. The company said in a statement that its assembly facility located in the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou is ‘currently operating at significantly reduced capacity’ due to Covid curbs. As a result, the company said it expects lower shipments of some iPhone 14 models than previously anticipated, which will cause longer wait times. It remains unclear how long the delays will be. The impacted facility has been grappling with a Covid-19 outbreak since mid-October that caused panic among its migrant workers. Last week, authorities imposed a seven-day lockdown of the area that houses the factory.” Read more at CNN
Twitter bans comedian Kathy Griffin for impersonating Elon Musk
Users adopt Musk’s name after he announces suspension of accounts pretending to be someone else
Mon 7 Nov 2022 07.24 EST
“Elon Musk has banned a US comedian’s Twitter account after taking on users who impersonate him on the platform.
Twitter’s new owner announced an immediate ban on accounts pretending to be someone else without flagging them as parodies. The move resulted in the removal of an ‘Elon Musk’ account held by the comedian Kathy Griffin, who had changed her account name to match that of the Tesla chief executive.
Musk tweeted: ‘Going forward, any Twitter handles engaging in impersonation without clearly specifying ‘parody’ will be permanently suspended.’ He added that there would be ‘no warning’ before suspensions are imposed and that any name change would result in people losing their blue tick – which verifies who they are.
Griffin had tweeted about the US midterm elections under Musk’s name, with one tweet saying: ‘After much spirited discussion with the females in my life. I’ve decided that voting blue for their choice is only right (They’re also sexy females, btw.) #VoteBlueToProtectWomen’. Musk tweeted about the account ban, saying Griffin had been removed for ‘impersonating a comedian’ but could have her account back for $8.
Musk said the parody rule would be a condition for signing up to the platform’s revamped subscription service, Blue. Users who pay $7.99 (£6.98) a month for the service will receive a blue tick, as well as the ability to post longer videos and receiving half as many ads. On Sunday evening, several accounts that had changed their name to Elon Musk or approximations of Elon Musk appeared to be suspended or placed behind a warning sign, including those of Griffin and the Australian satirical website the Chaser.
‘I guess not ALL the content moderators were let go? Lol,’ Griffin joked afterward on Mastodon, an alternative social media platform where she set up an account last week.
Despite Musk promising that users would be able to parody other accounts if they were clearly marked as such – a restatement of Twitter’s existing policy – some received bans despite explicitly labelling their new accounts as mockeries of the company’s owner: one user, who changed his verified account’s name to ‘Elon Musk (Parody)’, was automatically locked out until he changed it back.
The New York Times reported on Sunday that Twitter has delayed rolling out the new verification process until after the midterm elections on Tuesday, amid fears that bogus ‘verified’ accounts could appear posing as Joe Biden, politicians or news organisations. The NYT story quoted an internal message from one Twitter employee asking why the company was ‘making such a risky change before elections, which has the potential of causing election interference’.
A Twitter employee, Esther Crawford, told the Associated Press the option was coming ‘soon but it hasn’t launched yet’.
The actor Valerie Bertinelli had similarly appropriated Musk’s screen name and posted a series of tweets in support of Democratic candidates on Saturday before switching back to her true name. ‘Okey-dokey. I’ve had fun and I think I made my point,’ she tweeted afterwards.” Read more at The Guardian
“Lives Lived: Rebecca Godfrey drew praise for the precision and compassion of ‘Under the Bridge,’ her nonfiction book about the murder of a 14-year-old girl. Godfrey died at 54.” Read more at New York Times
SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC
“Sunday night football: Kansas City beat Tennessee 20-17 in overtime with a field goal. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes was sensational.
Top dollar: The New York Mets agreed to a five-year, $102 million contract for the star reliever Edwin Díaz. The contract is a record for a closer.
Reversal: The Boston Bruins severed ties with the defenseman Mitchell Miller yesterday, two days after signing him. Miller was convicted in 2016 of bullying a developmentally disabled Black classmate.
26.2 miles through five boroughs: Sharon Lokedi and Evans Chebet, both from Kenya, won yesterday’s New York City Marathon. Here are some of The Times’s best photos, and here’s how fast several celebrities ran.” Read more at New York Times
US Powerball jackpot jumps to record-breaking $1.9bn after no one wins
The prize keeps getting bigger because no one can overcome the long odds – 1 in 292.2m – to snag it
Associated Press
Sun 6 Nov 2022 11.27 EST
“A record Powerball jackpot grew to an even larger $1.9bn (£1.67bn) after no one won the lottery drawing on Saturday night.
The numbers for the drawing were: white balls 28, 45, 53, 56, 69 and red Powerball 20. The next chance for someone to get lucky will be Monday night.
The new $1.9bn (£1.67bn) jackpot is for a winner who is paid through an annuity over 29 years. Winners of lottery jackpots usually prefer a lump sum of cash, which for Monday’s drawing would be $929.1m (£816.61m).
The Powerball prize keeps getting more massive because of the inability of anyone to overcome the long odds of 1 in 292.2 million and win the jackpot. To take the top prize, players must buy a $2 (£1.76) ticket and match all five white balls as well as one red Powerball.
Since someone won the prize on 3 August, there have been 40 drawings without a winner. That matches a record for draws without a winner, along with a run of drawings last year, according to the Multi-State Lottery Association based in Clive, Iowa.
Powerball is played in 45 states, as well as Washington DC, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.” Read more at The Guardian