The Full Belmonte, 1/16/2024
© Associated Press / Andrew Harnik | Former President Trump won the Iowa caucuses on Monday.
Trump wins in Iowa; DeSantis finishes No. 2
““I feel great,” former President Trump enthused Monday night on Fox News Digital as media outlets projected what turned out to be his 51.1 percent victory in the Iowa caucuses, where 40 delegates were in play.
It was a record-setting GOP win, showcasing Trump’s pull in a state that trended Democratic in presidential election years until 2016, when the then-New York business celebrity won the state by more than 9 percent. The largest margin of victory for an Iowa Republican caucus had been 12.8 percentage points for Bob Dole in 1988.
Monday’s showing was a commanding step in Trump’s race to lock up the Republican presidential nomination for a third consecutive election cycle while pummeling President Biden and defending himself this year as both a candidate and a criminal defendant. Trump this morning will appear in a New York City court charged with defamation.
Iowa voters handed the former president an invitation to try to repeat his party dominance in the New Hampshire primary next week, where polls indicate a closer GOP nomination contest.
Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second in the Hawkeye State with 21.2 percent of the vote, pleased and more than a little relieved that his heavy campaign investment in the first-in-the-nation caucuses and each of its 99 counties kept him in the chase, albeit as a runner-up to Trump by nearly 30 points.
‘We’ve got our ticket punched out of Iowa!’ DeSantis told cheering supporters Monday night. ‘People want to have hope for this country’s future and that’s what we represent. We represent a chance to reverse the madness that we’ve seen in this country.’
The New York Times: DeSantis’s Iowa letdown: A distant second place behind Trump.
Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina, finished behind DeSantis with 19.1 percent. Her campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, issued a statement arguing it’s down to a two-person race with the Iowa victor: ‘Only Trump and Nikki Haley having substantial support in both New Hampshire and South Carolina,’ Ankney wrote. Haley is betting that her fortunes can rise in New Hampshire, where moderate voters say they agree with her ‘chaos-follows-Trump’ warnings, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ average of polls.
Presidential candidate Nikki Haley meets with supporters at Drake Diner in Des Moines, Iowa on Jan. 15, 2024, before the 2024 Iowa Caucus.
Megan Smith, USA TODAY
‘When you look at how well we’re doing in New Hampshire, in South Carolina and beyond, I can safely say tonight Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race,’ Haley said in an effort to spin a momentum narrative from her her third-place finish.
The decision by news organizations to call the race early for Trump while Iowans were caucusing did not sit well with the DeSantis campaign and its allies. Ken Cuccinelli, a founder of Never Back Down, the main super PAC backing DeSantis, told The Hill that the decision to call the race was ‘absolutely outrageous.’
To note: Entrance polls gave a window into DeSantis and Haley’s relative strengths. Haley won over caucusgoers with college degrees and those identifying as moderate, as well as the third of voters who believe Biden won the 2020 election and disagree with Trump’s false assertion that it was stolen. DeSantis pulled ahead among late deciders and voters whose most important issue is abortion (The New York Times).
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who finished a distant fourth at less than 8 percent in Iowa, suspended his campaign Monday and endorsed Trump. “Nobody knew who we were, nobody knew what we were up to, but together, we have created a movement that I think is going to carry our nation to the next level,” he told supporters in Des Moines (The Hill).
Sidebar: Turnout in Iowa amid frigid caucus weather is on track to be historically low, perhaps 110,000, according to The New York Times. The Trump and DeSantis campaigns initially prepared for more than 200,000 caucusgoers, which would have eclipsed the previous high of 187,000 in 2016.
The New York Times: In Iowa, GOP campaigns and PACs spent more than $100 million on ads.” [The Hill]
© Associated Press / Charlie Neibergall | Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis spoke to supporters Monday at a caucus night party. He finished second behind Trump in the GOP Iowa caucuses.
Trump's wakeup call
Former President Trump takes the stage at his victory party in Des Moines last night. Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP
“The astonishing speed and sweep of former President Trump's victory in last night's Iowa caucuses delivered a massive wakeup call to Republican skeptics still dreaming of a post-MAGA world, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.
Why it matters: Inevitability has been the prevailing theme of Trump's quest for a third straight GOP nomination. His historic win in Iowa — called by networks 31 minutes after caucusing began — moves the country one step closer to the longest general election campaign in history.
Iowa's 3 takeaways
1. Trump's perfect night.
He couldn't have scripted it any better: Trump won 98 of 99 counties in Iowa, dominating virtually every demographic, while physically campaigning in the state far less than any of his top rivals.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis edged former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley for a distant second — giving both an incentive to stay in the race and further divide voters searching for a Trump alternative.
Vivek Ramaswamy, who had sought to brand himself as the MAGA movement's heir apparent, suspended his campaign after a disappointing fourth-place finish and quickly endorsed Trump.
Trump was in rare form early in his victory speech, urging the party to "come together" behind him and complimenting DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy without the usual insults — a subtle power move that seemed to signal his team will ramp up the pressure on his remaining rivals to drop out.
2. DeSantis cries "election interference."
The Florida governor's campaign staff and allies spent much of the night furiously attacking the media for calling the race for Trump before some caucus-goers had even cast their votes.
‘The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet,’ DeSantis campaign spokesman Andrew Romeo said in a statement.
Still, DeSantis — who predicted six weeks ago that he would win Iowa — celebrated his 30-point loss to Trump and declared onstage that ‘we've got our ticket punched out of Iowa.’
Data: AP. Chart: Axios Visuals
3. Haley's path narrows.
Haley, a former South Carolina governor, was counting on a second-place finish in Iowa to knock out DeSantis and set the stage for a stunning upset in independent-minded New Hampshire, where polls show she's within striking distance of Trump.
But Haley's momentum from recent debates failed to translate to a surge in Iowa. Her strategy of mining anti-Trump and moderate votes in Iowa's suburbs fell short, and her claim last night that the GOP nomination battle is now a ‘two-person race’ didn't quite land with the force she was hoping for.
Haley stopped Trump from sweeping all 99 counties by a margin of just one vote in Johnson County (home to the University of Iowa) — an apt metaphor for the daunting task ahead.
Nikki Haley speaks at her caucus-night event in West Des Moines. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images
What's next: The three top candidates' travel schedules speak volumes about the state of the Republican primary.
Haley is heading straight to New Hampshire, where even an upset victory on Jan. 23 may not answer pressing concerns about how she can expand her coalition beyond moderates and college-educated voters.
DeSantis is aiming to take the fight to Haley by flying straight to her home state, which holds its GOP primary on Feb. 24. It's a tacit acknowledgment that he's in a deep hole in New Hampshire.
Trump will be in New York today — not to campaign, but to attend the first day of trial in writer E. Jean Carroll's defamation lawsuit against him for comments he's continued to make after being found liable for sexually abusing her.” [Axios]
Lowest turnout in decades
Screenshot: Fox News
“Last night's caucuses are on track to have the lowest GOP turnout since 2000, Axios' Erin Doherty writes.
Why it matters: Voter turnout was a major question ahead of the caucuses as extreme weather slammed Iowa.
By the numbers: Roughly 110,000 Republicans caucused last night, according to preliminary results from the state GOP.
187,000 Republicans turned out to caucus in 2016, the last competitive Republican nomination contest, which was a record high.” [Axios]
Keep reading ... More pics from Iowa's frozen vote.
A snow mound outside a caucus site in Clive, Iowa, yesterday. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Severe cold clutches US, closing schools and disrupting travel
“Dangerously cold wind chills are continuing to affect much of the Rockies, Great Plains and Midwest, with wind chills below minus 30 degrees being recorded Tuesday in many parts of the central U.S. Most of the stretch from Virginia to Maine is expected to receive one to three inches of snow from Monday night into Tuesday, forecasters say. Air travel has been disrupted and schools will be closed across the country Tuesday, including in Chicago, which has the nation's fourth-largest district, as well as in Denver; Dallas; Fort Worth, Texas, and Portland, Oregon.” Read more at USA Today
Shoppers walk through blowing snow as they leave a grocery store on January 13, 2024 in West Des Moines, Iowa.
Scott Olson, Getty Images
Urgent search for two missing Navy SEALs off Somalia
“A search is underway for two Navy SEALs who are missing after falling into the water during a nighttime mission off the coast of Somalia, two U.S. defense officials told NBC News.
One of the SEALs fell into the rough waters while raiding a small ship on Thursday, the officials said, speaking anonymously to give details of the incident.
A second sailor jumped in to rescue the first, and both disappeared into the darkness, the officials said.
The SEALs were searching sailboats in the Gulf of Aden looking for illegal goods like weapons or drugs, according to the officials.” [NBC News]
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was released after a controversial hospital stay.
“What’s happening? Austin was hospitalized on Jan. 1 by complications from a surgery to treat prostate cancer. He kept it secret from the White House, causing a political firestorm.
What now? Austin will recover and work at home before returning to the Pentagon, he said yesterday. The Defense Department inspector general is investigating the matter.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Georgia DA breaks silence about Donald Trump case prosecutor
“Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has defended her hiring of private attorney Nathan Wade as lead prosecutor in the election fraud case against former President Donald Trump and 14 others, suggesting that those who have questioned his ability are being unfair and possibly racist. Willis made her remarks days after one of Trump’s 14 remaining co-defendants accused her of having an improper romantic relationship with Wade that was serious enough to have them both thrown off the case.” Read more at USA Today
Immigration
“Authorities in Chicago are scrambling to shelter migrants in dangerous cold as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott refuses to stop drop-offs. Illinois' Democratic governor recently warned in a letter to his GOP counterpart that sending migrants now to the Windy City could cost lives. Over the last few weeks, mayors of New York, Chicago and Denver have been irked by ‘rogue buses’ from Texas dropping off migrants by the thousands. Abbot has vowed to keep sending migrants despite the freezing conditions, saying that ‘until President Biden steps up and does his job to secure the border, Texas will continue transporting migrants to sanctuary cities.’ This comes just days after three Mexican migrants drowned near Eagle Pass, Texas, after state authorities blocked the US Border Patrol from accessing miles of the US-Mexico border.” [CNN]
Biden's best haul
President Biden visits Emmaus Run Inn in Emmaus, Penn., on Friday. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images
“President Biden raised over $97 million for his reelection effort in the final three months of 2023, his campaign announced this morning.
Why it matters: It's Biden's strongest fundraising quarter yet. He enters the election year with $117 million cash on hand — likely to give him an advantage over his potential Republican rivals, Axios' Alex Thompson writes.
Flashback: The Biden campaign and associated committees have raised less than former President Trump's reelection campaign did at this point four years ago, but more than then-President Obama's reelection campaign at the same point.” [Axios]
Gaza
“Israel's war in Gaza has brought famine with ‘such incredible speed,’ the United Nations relief chief said Monday, as he warned that the "great majority" of 400,000 Gazans are starving in the besieged enclave. Elsewhere in the region, a Houthi ballistic missile struck a US-owned cargo ship on Monday, US Central Command said in a statement. The Yemeni militant group claimed responsibility for the strike against the Gibraltar Eagle, which appears to be the first time the Houthis have successfully struck a US-owned or operated ship, raising the stakes in the Red Sea after Washington vowed that further Houthi launches would be met with a response.” [CNN]
The far right may surge in upcoming EU elections. A quiet Dutch town explains why
“Triggered by economic and cultural anxieties that have whipped up fears about immigrants, people throughout the Netherlands have veered far to the right politically. It’s an extreme example of a trend being felt across the continent that could tilt the outcome of this year’s European Union parliamentary election. Read more.
Why this matters:
Support for the Dutch Party for Freedom, led by Geert Wilders, has more than doubled since the last election in 2021. The campaign ran on slogans such as ‘no Islamic schools, Qurans or mosques’ and ‘no open borders and mass immigration we cannot afford’ despite less than 5% of the population being Muslim.
The rise of these figures in regional politics has prompted critics to use an unflattering German expression — ‘salonfähig’ — to describe the former outcasts. ‘Salonfähig’ is often used to refer to how the Nazis, after being initially shunned, eventually entered mainstream politics, before their total takeover in World War II.
In June, voters in all 27 member states of the European Union will elect their next Parliament for a five-year term. Analysts say that far-right parties, now the sixth-largest group in the assembly, are primed to gain seats and influence over EU policies affecting everything from civil rights to gender issues.” [AP News]
“This time no one was surprised.
It took 30 minutes to call victory for Donald Trump in Iowa, leaving his Republican rivals out in the Arctic cold gripping the midwest. He’s already on the lips of the Davos jet set, and Christine Lagarde was that rare central banker wading into politics to declare Trump 2.0 would be a global threat.
But if you’re in government and facing the real prospect of having to deal with a second Trump presidency, you just have to be practical.
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas made sure to reach out to Trump’s entourage in Washington. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock did a major detour to visit the heart of Trump land to try and understand the US mood before November’s elections.
WATCH: Trump spoke to supporters after he cruised to victory in the Iowa caucuses. Source: Bloomberg
Officials from Europe to Asia, Africa and Latin America are clear-headed about the risks with a repeat of Trump: expect more of the same with even fewer safety guards. Maybe he’ll pull the US out of NATO or hang Ukraine out to dry given his oft-expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
There will be more trade tensions with China, but perhaps surprisingly, few in Beijing expect the relationship with the US to change given the protectionist slant of Joe Biden’s administration.
India and Saudi Arabia welcome the transactional mindset that Trump brings to the table. They’re also allergic to the finger-wagging they get on things like climate change and human rights from the US and the West. There’ll be none of that with Trump.
The biggest political takeaway? Expect nothing back. Even if he likes to play golf with you, he may turn on you on a dime.
It’s all about hedging your bets, something the titans of finance gathered at the Swiss ski resort know all too well.” — Flavia Krause-Jackson [Bloomberg]
Putin and Trump at the G-20 summit in Osaka in June 2019. Photographer: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
“Iran said it destroyed what it called the ‘espionage headquarters’ of Israel’s Mossad intelligence service in Iraqi Kurdistan yesterday, its first direct strike on Israeli interests since the start of the war in Gaza. Another attack targeted ISIS in northern Iraq and Syria in what Tehran described as retaliation for a bombing this month that killed almost 100 people near the burial site of General Qassem Soleimani.” [Bloomberg]
“Despite warnings from Western navies to stay away from the southern Red Sea to avoid attacks by Houthi militants, large numbers of ships are continuing to navigate the crucial trade route. The advice came after the US and the UK bombed targets in Yemen to try to quell assaults on commercial vessels, prompting concern about reprisals.” [Bloomberg]
Ships idling outside the Gulf of Aden yesterday.
“As the World Economic Forum gets under way in Davos, global leaders have a lot to worry about: from the possible spread of the Israel-Hamas war and the deadlock in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to a wobbly Chinese economy and the threat of hyperinflation. Read our pessimist’s guide to the things that could go wrong this year.” [Bloomberg]
“China’s state-owned banks are tightening curbs on funding to Russian clients after the US authorized secondary sanctions on overseas financial firms that aid Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. Lenders will sever ties with sanctioned clients and stop providing financial services to the Russian military industry, sources say.” [Bloomberg]
“North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un says he wants to remove the concept of ‘peaceful reunification’ with South Korea from his country’s constitution. His decision to abolish agencies to manage ties between the two nations sets the stage for fresh tensions on the heavily militarized peninsula.” [Bloomberg]
“Beijing reminded Singapore of its ‘one-China’ position on Taiwan in a rare show of public disapproval after the city-state congratulated Vice President Lai Ching-te and his ruling party for its election win.” [Bloomberg]
“Venezuela raised its monthly minimum wage by the equivalent of more than 40% as protests by disgruntled public workers spread ahead of presidential elections this year.” [Bloomberg]
Pandemic's permanent legacy
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
“Just six of 158 U.S. CEOs said they'll prioritize bringing workers back to the office full-time in 2024, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a new survey released by The Conference Board.
Why it matters: Executives are increasingly resigned to a world where employees don't come in every day, as hybrid work arrangements — mixing work from home and in-office — become the norm for knowledge workers.
Zoom out: ‘Remote work appears likely to be the most persistent economic legacy of the pandemic,’ Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a recent note.
20-25% of workers in the U.S. work from home at least part of the week, according to data Goldman cites. That's below a peak of 47% during the pandemic but well above its prior average of around 3%.
The bottom line: ‘The battle is over,’ said Diana Scott, human capital center leader at The Conference Board. ‘There are so many other issues CEOs are facing.’” [Axios]
An unprecedented flu strain is attacking hundreds of animal species.
“What to know: A potent strain of H5N1 avian influenza has struck some 320 bird and mammal species, leading to mass deaths of animals on farms and in the wild.
Why it’s worrying: There’s a risk the virus could evolve the ability to be transmitted to humans. Its reach exploded around 2021 when it began to spread among migrating birds.”
Read this story at Washington Post
American women are gaining more economic power.
“What to know: By 2030, women could control much of the $30 trillion in assets held by baby boomers, one study says, as they outlive their husbands.
Why it matters: The flow of trillions of dollars into women’s hands could reshape women’s lives and have profound effects on the nation.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Your ‘love language’ might not really matter.
“What’s that? The theory that there are five key ways that people show and receive love. It’s guided couples for decades — and spawned memes, satire and an Ariana Grande song.
What the science says: There isn’t enough evidence to support the theory, a recent paper found. And, in some cases, it may encourage people to stay in difficult relationships.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Huge win for streaming
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce warms up Saturday in Kansas City for the NFL's fourth-coldest game ever. Photo: Charlie Riedel/AP
“NBC Sports says viewers flocked to Peacock for an NFL playoff game that, in most of the country, could be seen only on the streaming service.
The Kansas City Chiefs' frozen triumph over the Miami Dolphins was the most-streamed event ever in the U.S., and drove the Internet to its largest U.S. usage ever on a single day, NBC announced.
Crazy stat: Saturday's game, which averaged 23 million viewers across all platforms, consumed 30% of Internet traffic.
Why it matters: It was the NFL's first playoff game behind a paywall — a new frontier in the league's embrace of streaming.
NBCUniversal paid $110 million for the NFL's first-ever exclusively live-streamed playoff game. It was close to a ‘make-or-break moment for Peacock,’ the N.Y. Times said ahead of time.
The Peacock-exclusive AFC Wild Card game reached 27.6 million viewers, according to Nielsen.
Dolphins-Chiefs peaked at an average of 24.6 million viewers in the second quarter from 9:15-9:30 p.m. ET.
The game was free in the two home markets, on NBC stations in Miami and Kansas City.
Peacock delivered its best single day, with a record 16.3 million concurrent devices.
The bottom line: ‘Both the league and Peacock will be overjoyed by this viewership number,’ The Athletic's Richard Deitsch writes.” [Axios]
Bills fans brave waist-deep snow
“The Buffalo Bills are moving along on the road to Super Bowl 58. In a wild-card game delayed more than 24 hours by lake effect snow and wind conditions, Josh Allen passed for 203 yards and three TDs as the Bills withstood a late comeback by the Pittsburgh Steelers to win 31-17 on Monday afternoon. With so much snow still in the stands, Buffalo fans threw snow up in the air to celebrate, creating quite the scene inside Highmark Stadium.” Read more at USA Today
Wild Card Weekend: A fan sits in the snow before the AFC wildcard playoff game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium.
Kirby Lee, USA TODAY Sports
The biggest moments of the 2024 Emmy Awards
“The 75th annual Emmy Awards broadcast started on a high note Monday night thanks to an emotional, self-deprecating address by actor Christina Applegate, who was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis in 2021. More tears came when Quinta Brunson, creator and star of “Abbott Elementary,” won her first Emmy for best comedy actress, moments after friend Ayo Edebiri brought home best supporting actress for “The Bear.” Kieran Culkin collected his first Emmy for best drama actor for the final season of “Succession,” which also took home best drama. The best comedy win went to “The Bear.” Read more
•Here's the full list of winners (and losers) from the night.•From Ayo Edebiri to Suki Waterhouse, here are the 12 best dressed stars at 2024 Emmys.” [USA Today]
Emmys host Anthony Anderson, right, accompanies Christina Applegate to present best supporting actress in a comedy series.
Robert Hanashiro, USA TODAY