The Full Belmonte, 1/16/2023
Martin Luther King Jr. addresses marchers during his ‘I Have a Dream’ speech at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, DC, on August 28, 1963.
MLK Day
“Today is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, a national holiday celebrating the birthday of the civil rights leader who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1964. Preaching a message of nonviolent resistance, the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. became enshrined in American culture as the leading voice of the civil rights movement. On Sunday, President Joe Biden delivered remarks from Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, becoming the first sitting president to deliver a Sunday sermon from the historic church where King served as pastor until his assassination in 1968. In honor of MLK Day, many government agencies, post offices, banks and corporate offices will be closed. US National Parks are waiving entrance fees today, and many people are also expected to flock to his memorial sites to pause and remember his legacy.” [CNN]
Storms
“Californians are preparing for another round of rain today, with up to 3 inches of rainfall expected in areas already too saturated to absorb more water. Flood watches are in place this morning for around 8 million people in coastal California, including the Bay Area. A slight risk for excessive rain and flooding also covers a large chunk of Southern California at least through the morning, forecasts show. The relentless string of storms has prompted thousands of evacuations across the state and left at least 19 dead in recent weeks. ‘We have lost too much -- too many people to these storms and in these waters,’ Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement on Saturday. Luckily, a much-needed stretch of dry weather is expected to begin on Thursday, the National Weather Service said.” [CNN]
Biden
“The White House is facing increasing criticism for its lack of transparency related to the recent discovery of classified documents found at President Biden's personal residence and a private office from his time as vice president. The initial batch of documents was found at his former private office on November 2 -- days before the midterm elections -- but not revealed to the public until last week. The classified material included some top secret files with the ‘sensitive compartmentalized information’ designation, which is used for highly sensitive information obtained from intelligence sources. Many Republicans are now comparing Biden's case to the Trump probe, including House Oversight chair James Comer, who told CNN he is asking for more documents and communications related to the searches of Biden's homes and other locations linked to the president’s aides.” [CNN]
President Biden at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta yesterday.Oliver Contreras for The New York Times
Indiana University Student Stabbed in ‘Racially Motivated’ Attack, School Says
An 18-year-old student was stabbed several times in the head while she was riding a bus. A school official said the attack was a reminder ‘that anti-Asian hate is real.’
Jan. 15, 2023
“An Indiana University student was stabbed in the head while riding a bus in Bloomington, Ind., on Wednesday in an unprovoked attack that officials described as a ‘racially motivated incident.’
The student, an 18-year-old woman who was not publicly identified, was waiting for the Bloomington Transit bus’s doors to open at 4:45 p.m. when she was stabbed in the head several times, the Bloomington Police Department said in a statement on Thursday.
After the attack, another bus passenger followed the suspect on foot and helped officers detain the person, Billie R. Davis, 56, of Bloomington, the police said.
Ms. Davis was charged with attempted murder, aggravated battery and battery with a deadly weapon, according to court documents. Video footage from inside the bus revealed that Ms. Davis and the victim had not interacted before the attack, the police said….” Read more at New York Times
Nurses are striking and quitting across the country.
“What’s going on? Over 7,000 nurses went on strike in New York City last week. There have also been protests, strikes or threatened strikes in California, Oregon, Michigan and Minnesota.
What’s behind this? Hospitals have been understaffed for years, but new layers of stress were added by the coronavirus pandemic and a recent surge of respiratory illnesses.” [Washington Post]
The possible impact: The U.S. could be short of between 200,000 and 450,000 nurses by 2025, one report said.
“Presidential probe | A Republican lawmaker leading investigations of the Biden administration called on the White House to turn over visitor logs to the president’s home in Delaware after classified documents were found there. The letter by House Oversight Committee chair James Comer is the latest salvo by Republicans after a series of revelations last week that raise political and legal risks for Biden as he considers seeking a second term in 2024.” [Bloomberg]
Search for the missing underway in Nepal plane crash ruin
“A spokesman for Nepal’s Civil Aviation Authority says a flight data recorder and a cockpit voice recorder have been retrieved from the site of the crash of a passenger plane that went down on its approach to the tourist town of Pokhara, killing 68 of the 72 people aboard. The devices will be handed over to investigators and the cause of the crash is still unknown. Social media video appears to show the plane starting to roll as it approached the ground. Officials said many of the bodies retrieved were burned beyond recognition and the search for the four missing people will continue Monday.” Read more at USA Today
A woman cries as the body of a relative, victim of a plane crash, is brought to a hospital in Pokhara, Nepal, Sunday, Jan. 15, 2023.
Yunish Gurung, AP
Ukrainian officials report Russian missile attack on Kyiv
“A Ukrainian official says the death toll from the weekend Russian missile strike on an apartment building in the southeastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro has risen to 37. The regional governor said Monday that rescuers continued searching through the rubble for more victims. At least 75 people were wounded and 35 others were still missing after Saturday’s strike. About 1,700 people lived in the multi-story building. Residents say there were no military facilities at the site. The strike on Saturday came amid a major barrage of Russian cruise missiles across Ukraine.” Read more at USA Today
Emergency workers carry a wounded woman after a Russian rocket hit a multistory building on Saturday in Dnipro, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 15, 2023.
Yevhenii Zavhorodnii, AP
By German Lopez
Good morning. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could enter a new phase soon.
A residential building in Dnipro, Ukraine, hit by a missile on Saturday.Nicole Tung for The New York Times
A mixed story
“Going into the winter, military analysts expected that the fighting in Ukraine would slow down as wet and snowy terrain made it too difficult for either Russia or Ukraine to make major offensive pushes. Sure enough, the territorial lines have remained largely the same since a successful Ukrainian offensive in the late summer and fall.
Still, some recent battles have been good for Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president. But other developments, especially continued Western unity in support of Ukraine, have gone badly for Russia. (Still others are just horrible, no matter how they affect the war outcome, including a Russian strike on civilians in the city of Dnipro over the weekend that killed at least 35 people.) How these developments unfold could help to decide the next phase of the war.
Today’s newsletter will look at Putin’s recent wins and losses and what they mean for Ukraine.
Putin’s wins
Russia has recorded few battlefield wins since the late summer. Instead, the losses have piled up as Ukraine retook territory in the east and south.
But Russian forces recently made gains around the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine and seemingly took Soledar, a town on the outskirts of the city. (Ukraine claims it’s still fighting.)
A victory in Soledar would be more symbolic than strategic, military analysts say. Russia has been deprived of wins in recent months, so any kind of success could help maintain support for Putin’s war. But Soledar itself likely will not play a major role in retaking Bakhmut or the greater region of Donbas, which has been one of Putin’s primary targets.
Another success for Putin in recent months is the lack of battlefield losses. Russian defenses appear to have held in the east and south. Again, analysts expected that battlefield lines would not move much during the winter. But that was not always guaranteed; Ukraine, for one, promised to continue its offensive push even in the winter months. That hasn’t happened, allowing Russia to hold territory.
‘By maintaining its defensive strategy, Russia has prevented a cascading, catastrophic collapse — which would be the best hope for a dramatic Ukrainian victory,’ said my colleague Julian Barnes, who covers national security for The Times.
Putin’s losses
As the winter began, supporters of Ukraine worried that Western unity could begin to break. Europeans in particular faced the prospect of a cold winter and skyrocketing energy prices, fueled by sanctions against the Russian oil and gas that provided power for much of the continent.
But with proper preparation and some luck, the worst has not come to pass. European nations stocked up on gas from alternative sources, like the U.S., Nigeria and Qatar. And the winter proved to be relatively warm, allowing Europeans to avoid some of the higher fuel prices, as my colleague Somini Sengupta wrote.
Subsequently, Western unity around Ukraine has held. If anything, it has strengthened. Western powers are promising Ukraine tanks and other armored vehicles, discarding fears that providing these weapons would be seen as too provocative by Russia. ‘The debate is not about whether to do less but how to do more for Ukraine,’ Julian said.
Another bad sign for Putin: He has again changed Russian military leadership in Ukraine. Russia recently replaced Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who also headed Russia’s brutal campaign in Syria, with a close ally of the Kremlin, Gen. Valery Gerasimov. It was the second leadership change in three months, signaling that Putin is unhappy with how the war is going.
Looking forward
Recent events mostly amount to a mixed picture for both Russia and Ukraine.
While Ukraine has performed much better than many analysts expected at the onset of the war, it still must make major battlefield gains in the east and south to have any hope of a favorable peace deal. Continued Western unity — and tanks — could help achieve those victories.
But Russia’s recent battlefield wins and leadership changes could also help its military overcome previous Ukrainian momentum. Ukrainian officials warned recently that Russia was preparing for a new offensive, one that could push into their capital, Kyiv, once again. American officials are less sure that Russia has the ability to mount a major new push.
Regardless of which side pushes first, the coming battles, as wet and snowy conditions recede, will decide who has the advantage.” [New York Times]
“To gauge the titanic shift in how countries are viewing their immediate security challenges look no further than Japan and Germany.
After their defeat in World War II, they have relied on the US military umbrella as they built prosperous societies imbued with varying degrees of pacifist ideology. But now both are expanding their already advanced armies.
Tokyo is embarking on its biggest increase in defense spending in the postwar period, a 60% increase over the next five years, while Berlin has overturned a ban on supplying weapons to war zones and is putting about $100 billion into a special defense fund.
Both are realizing that they inhabit unstable neighborhoods. Japan is increasingly worried about nuclear-armed China and its intentions toward Taiwan as well Kim Jung Un’s capricious regime in North Korea. Then there is the catastrophic Russian invasion of Ukraine, with heavy bombardments of civilian targets.
Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida just finished a journey that took him to Italy, the UK, and Canada to firm up security partnerships before meeting President Joe Biden at the White House. While those states also have the US as their main ally, they are finding it’s comforting to have a more assertive Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, in their corner.
There’s also the deepening polarization of Washington politics. Still fresh in the memory are the attempts by Donald Trump, who’s seeking to return to the White House in next year’s election, to undermine NATO and his repeated questioning of the fairness of the US-Japan alliance.
Even Biden’s Washington is stoking concern on the trade front, with both Japan and Europe already taking steps to defend against what they see as unfair subsidies outlined in his Inflation Reduction Act.
For both Europe and Asia, the relative stability of the postwar era is clearly over. — Jon Herzkovitz [Bloomberg]
Soldiers from the Japan Ground Self-Defence Force in a joint military drill with the US, Britain and Australia at Narashino exercise field, on Jan. 8. Photographer: Yuichi Yamazaki/AFP/Getty Images
Italy arrests No 1 fugitive Mafia boss, 30 years on the run
By FRANCES D'EMILIO
“ROME (AP) — Italy’s No. 1 fugitive, convicted Mafia boss Matteo Messina Denaro, was captured on Monday at a private clinic in Palermo, Sicily, after three decades on the run, Italian paramilitary police said.
Messina Denaro was captured at the clinic where he was receiving treatment for an undisclosed medical condition, said Carabinieri Gen. Pasquale Angelosanto, who heads the police force’s special operations squad.
A pair of Carabinieri officers, each holding an arm, walked him down the front steps of the upscale clinic and led him to a waiting black van on a gray morning. Messina Denaro was wearing a brown leather jacket trimmed in shearling and a matching white-and-brown skull cap and his trademark tinted glasses. His face looked wan and he looked straight ahead. He was taken to a secret location by police immediately after the arrest, Italian state television reported.
A young man when he went into hiding, he is now 60. Messina Denaro, who had a power base in the port city of Trapani, in western Sicily, was considered Sicily’s Cosa Nostra top boss even while a fugitive….” Read more at AP News
Christine Lambrecht: German defence minister resigns after blunders
Image caption, Christine Lambrecht was widely criticised for failing to improve Germany's notoriously ill-equipped armed forces.
By Jenny Hill
BBC Berlin correspondent
“Germany's Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht has resigned following a series of blunders and PR disasters.
It comes as Berlin comes under rising pressure to allow the delivery of German-built battle tanks to Ukraine.
Ms Lambrecht was mocked for her announcement that Germany was supporting Ukraine by sending 5,000 military helmets.
She was also widely criticised for failing to improve Germany's notoriously ill-equipped armed forces.
This was despite the provision of €100bn (£88bn) for that task following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Ms Lambrecht, a member of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), also came in for criticism when it emerged that she had taken her son on a trip in a military helicopter.
But it was an awkward video she posted on New Year's Eve which triggered widespread contempt and undermined her support within political circles. In the video, Ms Lambrecht talked about the positive personal encounters she had enjoyed during the war in Ukraine, while fireworks exploded around her in Berlin.
In a resignation statement seen by the German national news agency, Ms Lambrecht said: ‘Months of media focus on me doesn't allow for fact-based reporting and discussion about soldiers, the army and security policy in the interest of German citizens.’
‘The valuable work of the soldiers and many motivated people in the defence area needs to be in the foreground.’
Ms Lambrecht was due to meet other defence ministers from Ukraine's western allies at the American military base in Ramstein on Friday to discuss further support for Ukraine.
The German government is facing renewed calls to send German-built Leopard 2 tanks - which Ukraine considers vital if it is to defeat Russia - or at least approve their delivery from countries such as Poland.
Warsaw has signalled its intention to supply the battle tanks, but requires permission from the country of manufacture.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has been criticised for his cautious approach to sending heavy weaponry to Ukraine, agreed last week to supply Marder infantry fighting vehicles.
Crucially, that decision was reached with the US, which jointly announced it would send Bradley armoured vehicles.
Shortly afterwards, the UK announced it would send Challenger battle tanks, increasing pressure on Germany to act.
A senior government source told me that Berlin will only send Leopards if the US is in agreement. And the head of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has warned that, even if that decision was reached, it would be 2024 before it could deliver the tanks.
But German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said recently that his country would not stand in the way of other nations that wanted to send Leopards.
It is not yet clear who will succeed Ms Lambrecht in a job which is considered such a poisoned chalice that many refer to it as ‘the ejector seat’.” [BBC]
“Silencing protests | In the weeks following the historic protests in China against lockdowns, President Xi Jinping appeared to show some empathy. The Chinese leader said the demonstrators were “mainly students and teenagers” frustrated with the pandemic and that it was “only natural” for 1.4 billion people to have divergent views. But behind the scenes, China has been rounding up people the authorities view as instigators of social unrest.” [Bloomberg]
“Police said they’ve almost finished clearing environmental activists from a village in North Rhine-Westphalia that’s due to be razed to make way for expansion of an opencast coal mine. That’s after weekend protests attended by Greta Thunberg and thousands of others demonstrating against Germany’s switch back to coal to help it survive the energy crisis caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine. Even so, the struggle for Luetzerath looks sure to go down as a key moment in the debate over the future of Europe’s energy security, and its consequences for climate change.” [Bloomberg]
The Garzweiler mine near farmland in Grevenbroich on April 8. Photographer: Alex Kraus/Bloomberg
“Turkish block | It’s been more than six months since Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO, and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains the key holdout to the alliance’s expansion. What’s more, as this report shows, with a Turkish election due in June if not sooner, fresh tensions are flaring and the situation seems more in limbo than ever.” [Bloomberg]
NFL playoffs: No lead safe, drama abounds in wild weekend
By DAVID BRANDT
“The Buffalo Bills blew a 17-point advantage before recovering to win Sunday. That narrow escape came less than 24 hours after the Jacksonville Jaguars overcame a 27-point deficit and pulled off one of the most stunning comeback victories in playoff history.
No lead is safe and the drama abounds so far in the NFL playoffs.
A loaded Sunday schedule saw the Bills escape with a 34-31 win over the Miami Dolphins, the New York Giants upset the Minnesota Vikings 31-24 and the Cincinnati Bengals hang on to beat the Baltimore Ravens 24-17 as wild-card weekend continued.
One more game in the round remains: Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys on Monday night.
All three of Sunday’s games were decided in the final minutes. In the nightcap, Sam Hubbard returned Baltimore quarterback Tyler Huntley’s fumble 98 yards for a tiebreaking touchdown in the fourth quarter in a stunning turn of events that led the Bengals to their win.
Huntley tried to go over the top of the line for the go-ahead score. But he was stood up by Germaine Pratt and stripped by fellow linebacker Logan Wilson.
The ball went right to Hubbard at the 2, and the defensive end took off down the field for the longest fumble return for a touchdown in NFL postseason history. It also was the longest go-ahead TD in the fourth quarter in the postseason.
In Sunday’s opener, Bills quarterback Josh Allen shrugged off a three-turnover outing by throwing two touchdown passes 3:11 apart in the third quarter. He finished 23 of 39 for 352 yards and three TDs, but also threw two interceptions and lost a fumble.
Cole Beasley scored the go-ahead touchdown with a 6-yard catch, and Gabe Davis extended the lead to 34-24 with a 23-yard TD reception after Buffalo squandered its early 17-0 advantage.
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones became one of the stars of wild-card weekend by leading sixth-seeded New York to its road win over No. 3 Minnesota. Jones — playing in his first playoff game — threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 78 yards in a stellar all-around performance. Saquon Barkley rushed for two scores, including the tiebreaker midway through the fourth quarter.
On Saturday, rookie Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers beat the Seattle Seahawks 41-23 while the Jaguars capped their comeback by beating the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30.
The No. 1 overall seed in the AFC was claimed by Kansas City with its 31-13 win over Las Vegas in Week 18. The NFC’s top spot was taken by Philadelphia. Those teams got the weekend off before playing in the divisional round next weekend.” [AP News]
A tragic Sunday in the college sports world
“Tuscaloosa police charged Alabama basketball player Darius Miles with capital murder after a fatal shooting near Alabama’s campus. AL.com reported Jamea Harris, 23, died after a minor Sunday morning altercation near a popular late-night stretch in Tuscaloosa.” [The Athletic]
“Georgia offensive lineman Devin Willock and recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy died in a car crash early Sunday, the school announced. ‘Devin and Chandler were two special people who meant so much to the University of Georgia,’ Georgia athletic director Josh Brooks said in a statement. Offensive lineman Warren McClendon and a female passenger were also involved, and both are in stable condition, according to the university.” [The Athletic]
Devin Willock, wearing No. 77, during a game against Vanderbilt in October.Credit...Dale Zanine/USA Today Sports, via Reuters