The Full Belmonte, 1/14/2024
Dems could boost Haley in Iowa
Nikki Haley poses for a photo with a supporter during a Pick Nikki Countdown to Caucus event in Iowa City yesterday. Photo: Kyle Mazza via Getty Images
“DES MOINES — Some Iowa Democrats and independents are planning to crash the subzero Republican caucuses tomorrow night and become ‘Republicans for a day’ to vote for Nikki Haley — but, actually, againstformer President Trump, Axios' Sophia Cai reports.
Why it matters: It's unclear how many will show up. But ‘crossover’ voting is a low-key tradition in Iowa's caucuses — and it's one of Iowa's big unknowns.
How it works: Iowa allows day-of party registration for voters, and Democrats aren't holding in-person presidential caucuses this year.
That's given mischievous anti-Trump voters ‘a chance to diminish Trump's inevitability,’ as Don McLeese of West Des Moines put it.
McLeese told Axios he'll be a crossover voter: ‘I'll hold my nose and caucus for Haley.’
Lyle Hansen, a Republican precinct captain for Haley in Cedar Rapids, says ‘there could be a good crossover’ vote for Haley because Democrats ‘get to come over and pick the candidate for Biden to oppose.’
Hansen speaks from experience: He crossed over to vote in the Democratic caucus in 2016 in order to vote against Hillary Clinton.
Reality check: Crossover voters are unlikely to help Haley catch Trump.
But GOP strategist David Kochel said that if crossovers see Haley as the best Republican alternative to Trump, they could help her finish a solid second in Iowa, ahead of Ron DeSantis.
‘If you even had 5,000 or 7,500 people across the state cross over for her, that might be the difference between her and Ron DeSantis,’ Kochel said.
The intrigue: There's some risk for Iowa's Democratic Party if many of its members cross over to vote with Republicans.
People who switch parties to participate in a caucus sometimes don't switch back.
What's next: If Haley benefits from crossover voters, it could feed Trump's claims that Democrats are helping to prop up her campaign.
Trump senior adviser Chris LaCivita told Axios: ‘If that is something they are relying on to get through the night, then poor people, I feel bad for them.’” [Axios]
Trump dominates final Iowa poll
Data: NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll (705 likely Iowa caucusgoers, polled Jan. 7-12, margin of error: ±3.7 points). Graphic: NBC News
“Nikki Haley edged ahead of Ron DeSantis in the final poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers before tomorrow night's vote.
Why it matters: Former President Trump is positioned to win by a large margin. But DeSantis is staking much of his campaign on a second-place finish, Axios' Justin Green writes.
Trump polled as the first choice for 48% of likely caucusgoers in the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, down from 51% in December.
Haley is at 20%, up from 16% in December.
DeSantis is at 16%, down from 19% in December.
Vivek Ramaswamy is at 8%, up from 5% in December.
All those fluctuations are within the poll's margin of error (±3.7 points).
Between the lines: Trump (49%) and DeSantis (23%) scored far better than Haley (9%) when it came to having "extremely enthusiastic" supporters.
‘The deep data on [Haley] suggest she looks stronger in the poll than she could on caucus night,’ said J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll.
The long game: Trump's wide lead is unusual for Iowa.
The last two Iowa GOP caucuses were far tighter heading into election day, as NBC election guru Steve Kornacki reminded people on Saturday.
The bottom line: The biggest X factor could be the weather.
The forecast high for Des Moines tomorrow is -5, with a low of -11, and wind chill as low as -30.” [Axios]
Politics
“John Kerry plans to step down as U.S. special envoy for climate by the spring, after three years in the role.” [New York Times]
“The Republican nominee in a special House election to replace George Santos drew scrutiny after her initial financial disclosure was missing required information.” [New York Times]
“Tammy Murphy, the wife of New Jersey’s governor, is running in a race for a chance to replace Senator Robert Menendez. A student Democratic group was pressured not to endorse her main rival.” [New York Times]
War at 100 days: Biden running out of patience with Bibi
Secretary of State Tony Blinken meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv on Tuesday. Photo: Kobi Gideon/Israel Government Press Office via Getty Images
“On Day 100 of the Israel-Hamas war, President Biden and other senior U.S. officials are becoming increasingly frustrated with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:
He has rejected most of the administration's recent requests related to the war, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.
Why it matters: Since the terrorist attack by Hamas on Oct. 7, Biden has given Israel his full backing, with unprecedented military and diplomatic support, while taking a political hit from his base in an election year.
‘The situation sucks and we are stuck,’ a U.S. official told Axios. ‘The president's patience is running out.’
Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who has been in close contact with U.S. officials about the war, told Axios: ‘At every juncture, Netanyahu has given Biden the finger.’
Behind the scenes: Biden hasn't spoken to Netanyahu in the 20 days since a tense Dec. 23 call, which a frustrated Biden ended with the words: ‘This conversation is over.’
They had spoken almost every other day in the first two months of the war.
Before Biden hung up, Netanyahu had rejected his request that Israel release the Palestinian tax revenues it's withholding.” [Axios]
Over 50% of Gaza buildings damaged or destroyed
Data: Damage analysis of Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellite data by Corey Scher of CUNY Graduate Center and Jamon Van Den Hoek of Oregon State University. Map: Will Chase/Axios
“The growing risk of famine, shortages of clean water and medicine, and unsanitary conditions in Gaza are increasing fears that hunger, disease and dehydration could begin to kill just as many — if not more — Palestinians than Israel's bombing, Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath writes.
‘Providing humanitarian assistance across Gaza is almost impossible,’ UN aid chief Martin Griffiths told the Security Council on Friday.” [Axios]
Denmark’s King Frederik X takes the throne after abdication of Queen
“Denmark entered a new era as King Frederik X assumed the throne following the shock abdication of his mother Queen Margrethe II.
For many in Denmark, Margrethe was the only monarch they had ever known. But her abdication, after more than five decades on the throne, paved the way for her son, the former Crown Prince Frederik, to succeed her.”
Read More at CNN
Confetti flies over the stage as Lai Ching-te speaks to supporters.
“Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party pulled off a historic third consecutive presidential victory as voters shrugged off warnings by China that their reelection would increase the risk of conflict. Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s current vice president, declared victory while his two opposition rivals both conceded defeat.
Congressional leaders have reached an agreement on a two-tranche short-term funding bill to keep the government funded until early March, a source told CNN. The deal comes just before the first funding deadline of January 19.
The US carried out further strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, according to a US official, a day after launching a coordinated multi-nation attack on nearly 30 Houthi locations. The additional strikes were much smaller in scope and targeted a radar facility used by the Houthis.
Federal prosecutors will seek the death penalty against the White gunman in a racist mass shooting at a Buffalo, New York, supermarket in 2022. This marks the first time the Justice Department under President Joe Biden has authorized pursuit of the death penalty.
Denmark entered a new era as King Frederik X assumed the throne following the shocking abdication of his mother, Queen Margrethe II. After more than five decades on the throne, she paved the way for her son, the former Crown Prince Frederik, to succeed her.
MONDAY
January 15 is Martin Luther King Jr. Day. It’s a federal holiday, which means non-essential government agencies, financial markets, banks, post offices and many corporate offices will be closed.
Monday is also the first test of the 2024 presidential election cycle, when Iowa Republicans gather to caucus in high school gyms, community buildings and churches. The first event of the party primary calendar for the past half-century, the Iowa caucuses will be an early measure for former President Donald Trump’s comeback bid and could help Republicans tired of Trump decide which of his remaining challengers to rally behind. A new poll found that he holds a wide lead over the GOP field.
The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum kicks off in Davos, Switzerland. Representatives from more than 100 governments, major international organizations and 1,000 partner companies are expected, alongside civil society leaders, experts, youth activists and social entrepreneurs. In the run-up to the gathering, the group released its annual report on global risks, which warns that humanity faces a perilous future marked by an explosion of disinformation turbocharged by artificial intelligence and the devastating effects of climate change.
TUESDAY
Yet another court case involving Trump is set to get underway. The trial to determine damages in E. Jean Carroll’s defamation lawsuit against Trump is scheduled to begin after a judge found last September that he was liable for defamatory statements. A civil jury in a separate lawsuit has already ordered him to pay Carroll $5 million for battery and defamation after finding that he sexually abused her in the mid-1990s. Trump is appealing that verdict.
FRIDAY
Apple will begin taking pre-orders for the Vision Pro mixed reality headset, its riskiest and most ambitious new hardware offering in years. The device, which starts at $3,500, looks like a pair of ski goggles, and the underlying technology lets users overlay virtual images on live videos of the real world. The Vision Pro will be available for purchase in the US beginning February 2.” [CNN]
“Lives Lived: The immigration lawyer Leon Wildes fought for more than three years to keep the U.S. government from deporting John Lennon and his wife, Yoko Ono. He died at 90.” [New York Times]