The Full Belmonte, 1/13/2023
Severe weather spawned more than two dozen tornadoes across the South on Thursday.
Severe weather
“Powerful storms are moving across the US, leaving widespread damage and wreaking havoc on millions of people. In the South, a severe weather outbreak reportedly spawned at least 35 tornadoes on Thursday, sending residents running for cover from the fierce winds, officials said. At least seven people, including a child, were killed in Alabama and Georgia, and search efforts are set to continue today. Meanwhile, floods in California have left a trail of destruction in the state -- and an additional lineup of storms will likely create another difficult weekend. Millions of people will be under flood watches, with at least three storm systems expected to impact several regions across the state. Some areas that are already drenched are bracing for at least five inches of rain or more, forecasts show.” [CNN]
What to Watch
Despite some recent easing of price pressures, inflation continues to run well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
PHOTO: MICHAEL NAGLE/ZUMA PRESS
U.S. inflation eased in December for the sixth straight month.
“The consumer-price index, a measurement of what people pay for goods and services, rose 6.5% last month from a year earlier, down from 7.1% in November and well below a 9.1% peak in June, according to the Labor Department. Core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, climbed 5.7% in December from a year earlier, easing from a 6% gain in November. (Many economists see increases in core CPI as a better signal of future inflation than the overall CPI.) The inflation report makes it likely that the Fed will slow its pace of interest-rate increases to a quarter-percentage-point at its upcoming meeting. Stocks rose after the data was released.” [Wall Street Journal]
Biden documents
“President Joe Biden is now facing a special counsel investigation after Obama-era classified files were found at his private office in Washington and his home in Delaware. The discoveries have launched a bevy of Republican congressional inquiries now that the GOP has control over the House of Representatives. On Thursday, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel to take over the investigation. The special counsel is former Maryland US attorney Robert Hur, who was nominated by then-President Donald Trump in 2017 and recently worked in private practice. Biden told reporters he was cooperating fully with the DOJ and the White House said it's confident the probe will show documents were ‘inadvertently misplaced.’” [CNN]
Attorney General Merrick Garland speaks during a news conference at the Department of Justice, Thursday, Jan. 12, 2023, in Washington, as John Lausch, the U.S. Attorney in Chicago, looks on.
Russia releases American Taylor Dudley
“An American and Navy veteran detained in Russia since April was released Thursday, his family said in a statement. Taylor Dudley, 35, was backpacking in Europe when he crossed the border from Poland into Russia and was taken into custody. On Thursday he was released at the Polish border to former New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, who is a representative of the U.S. Embassy in Warsaw. Richardson said in a statement that he continues to work for the release of Paul Whelan, a former U.S. Marine detained in Russia four years ago.” Read more at USA Today
A photograph shows a piece by British street artist Banksy in the small Ukrainian town of Borodyanka, some 60 km from Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on January 12, 2023, amid Russian invasion of Ukraine.
SERGEI SUPINSKY, AFP via Getty Images
“Former Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio and four lieutenants charged with seditious conspiracy in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection went on trial Thursday. Prosecutors said the leaders agreed to ‘use any means necessary’ in their violent attack which they hoped would prevent Joe Biden from becoming president.” [Bloomberg]
Former Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts to Fill Vacant U.S. Senate Seat
Gov. Jim Pillen appoints his predecessor to succeed Ben Sasse, who resigned
Jim Pillen speaking in Lincoln, Neb., after the Nebraska gubernatorial election was called in his favor in November. PHOTO: KENNETH FERRIERA/ASSOCIATED PRESS
“Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen on Thursday appointed his predecessor to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Ben Sasse, a Republican who resigned earlier this month to become president of the University of Florida.
Pete Ricketts, a Republican who served two terms as Nebraska’s governor, will hold the seat until a special election is held in 2024 in the solid conservative state. He would have to run again in 2026 to serve a full six-year term in the Senate.
With the appointment, the Senate now returns to full strength, with Democrats holding a narrow 51-49 majority over Republicans.
Mr. Ricketts, who endorsed Mr. Pillen and donated to his gubernatorial campaign, was widely expected to be the appointee….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
NY nurses return to work, but more strikes could follow
“Even as 7,000 nurses return to work at two of New York’s busiest hospitals after a three-day strike, colleagues around the country say it’s just a matter of time before frontline workers at other hospitals begin walking the picket line. Problems are mounting at hospitals across the nation, which are facing widespread health care staffing shortages, overworked nurses beaten down from a pandemic that’s brought years of death and illness, and a draining pipeline of nursing school graduates.” Read more at USA Today
Nurses stage a strike in front of Mt. Sinai Hospital in the Manhattan borough of New York Monday, Jan. 9, 2023, after negotiations broke down hours earlier.
Craig Ruttle, AP
New Rule Could Give House Lawmakers a Tax-Free $34,000 Pay Bump
Late last year, members quietly changed House rules to allow lawmakers to be reimbursed for the cost of lodging, food and other items while on official business in Washington.
“WASHINGTON — A little-noticed rule change made quietly by Democrats in the final days of their majority last year could give House members a long-delayed increase in compensation, allowing them to be reimbursed for the cost of lodging, food and travel while they are on official business in Washington.
For the past dozen years, House members have declined to take a cost-of-living increase in the annual spending bills, fearful of a political backlash if they were seen to give themselves a raise. But the provision, tucked into internal rules that typically receive little attention from the public and without any open debate on Capitol Hill, could amount to a subsidy of about $34,000 per member this year. That would be a substantial increase for lawmakers who spend weeks on end in the nation’s capital, where living costs are among the highest in the United States.
The new rule, proposed by Democrats on the House Administration Committee, was approved with no objection in December, but rank-and-file members were not informed widely about it until Tuesday. In an email sent by the chief administrative officer of the House, which was obtained by The New York Times and reported earlier by Bloomberg News, congressional offices were advised not to submit reimbursement requests for rental and housing costs until the committee issued additional guidance.
Representative Zoe Lofgren, the California Democrat who led the Administration Committee when the change was made, did not respond to requests for comment about it, nor did the other Democratic members of the panel….” Read more at New York Times
Tax season
“Tax filing season will begin on January 23, the IRS announced on Thursday, but there are still several months to get your documents in order. The official due date for returns this year is April 18, the agency said. After you file, the IRS said it is likely to deliver your refund within 21 days of receiving your return -- its typical turnaround time -- but only if you fill out your return accurately and completely, file it electronically and opt to have your refund delivered through direct deposit. The agency advises against filing paper returns, if possible. And for those who might be dreading this task, it may help to know that the majority of tax filers every year are typically owed a refund. Last year, the average refund issued was $3,176.” [CNN]
Food prices
“Food prices in the US remain stubbornly high but are seeing some easing. In December, ‘food at home’ prices increased 0.2% from the month before, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's the smallest monthly increase since March 2021. Among the foods with the highest increase in prices are eggs; up 59.9% annually, butter; up 35.3% annually, and lettuce; up 24.9% annually. As for the broader picture of inflation, consumer prices decreased by 0.1% in December, the BLS reported in its Consumer Price Index report. This marked the first inflation report of the new year -- and the last before the Federal Reserve meets at the end of the month to determine how aggressively it will tackle rising costs.” [CNN]
Suspect charged with murder in assassination of Japan’s Abe
By MARI YAMAGUCHI
“TOKYO (AP) — Japanese prosecutors formally charged the suspect in the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe with murder, sending him to stand trial, a court said Friday.
Tetsuya Yamagami was arrested immediately after allegedly shooting Abe with a homemade gun as the former leader was making a campaign speech in July outside a train station in Nara in western Japan. He then underwent a nearly six-month mental evaluation, which prosecutors said showed he is fit to stand trial.
Yamagami was also charged with violating a gun control law, according to the Nara District Court.
Police have said Yamagami told them that he killed Abe, one of Japan’s most influential and divisive politicians, because of Abe’s apparent links to a religious group that he hated. In his statements and in social media postings attributed to him, Yamagami said he developed a grudge because his mother had made massive donations to the Unification Church that bankrupted his family and ruined his life….” Read more at AP News
Sri Lanka’s Former President Ordered to Pay Victims of 2019 Bombings
A Supreme Court ruling denounced former President Maithripala Sirisena and some of his top officials for what it called “reckless failure” to prevent the attacks, which killed more than 200 people.
By Skandha Gunasekara and Mujib Mashal
“Sri Lanka’s top court on Thursday ordered the country’s former president and several of his senior officials to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars in compensation to the families of the victims of terrorist attacks on Easter Sunday in 2019, a small victory in an island nation that has long suffered from a culture of rampant impunity.
The Supreme Court, ruling on a petition filed by families of the victims as well as church leaders and activists, said Maithripala Sirisena, the president of Sri Lanka from 2015 to 2019, and his top security officials had failed to prevent the carnage despite detailed intelligence reports suggesting such attacks had been imminent.
A series of coordinated suicide attacks by Islamic State-inspired assailants ripped through several churches and hotels in and around the capital, Colombo, killing more than 200 people. The attacks shattered a decade of relative peace in Sri Lanka, which was trying to emerge from a long, scarring civil war.
The devastating security breach was made possible by a coalition government paralyzed by infighting among its leaders. After the attacks, the crucial tourism sector dried up, and anti-Muslim mob violence spread across the country. The Easter Sunday carnage proved to be the first in a cascade of blows that left the island nation in the worst economic crisis in its recent history….” Read more at New York Times
India to pass China as most populous nation
College students perform during a flash mob as a tribute to the cultural diversity of India, at the Mumbai Central rail station in September. Photo: Niharika Kulkarni/Reuters
“India is set to pass China this year as the world's most populous country, Axios' Han Chen writes from a U.N. projection.
Why it matters: The milestone will have major economic and societal implications for both countries — and will eventually influence trade flows and upend the global balance of power.
By the numbers: India was home to 1.417 billion people as of last year, compared to China's 1.426 billion, per U.N. figures.
As India's population continues to grow, China's population is expected to decline — to 1.313 billion by 2050, according to the most recent U.N. projection.
What's happening: China, where population growth has slowed considerably in recent years, faces a grim economic outlook, as it emerges from three years of zero-COVID policies that dampened market activities and consumer confidence.
That, combined with India's growing population and a shift away from China due to geopolitical reasons, may help the South Asian country chip away at China's dominance as the world's factory.
Reality check: Some experts have cautioned that it will take decades for India to compete with China's manufacturing power because of bureaucracy and protectionism.” [Axios]
January 13, 2023
Good morning. The Biden administration’s border policy relies on Mexico for crucial help.
Migrants waiting in line at the border in El Paso in December.Paul Ratje for The New York Times
On the move
“The extraordinary surge in migration across the Americas has become the single most dominant issue in the relationship between the United States and Mexico. U.S. authorities stopped migrants 2.8 million times at its southern border in the 12 months ending in September — breaking the previous record set a year earlier.
The two countries, linked by geography, share a common interest: trying to dissuade people from trying to illegally cross an already overwhelmed border. As the numbers have hit new highs, President Biden has leaned more heavily into enforcement designed to drive down unauthorized crossings.
How is Biden able to pursue these increasingly aggressive measures? With help from the Mexican government. Mexico has agreed to take in a growing number of the migrants that the U.S. is swiftly expelling after they enter the country.
This month, Biden announced some of his toughest actions yet: a policy that would deny a specific group of migrants the chance to apply for asylum if they cross the border without authorization, and would instead send them to Mexico.
Progressives laid into the president over the sweeping restrictions, which one immigrant advocate called ‘a humanitarian disgrace.’
I’ve been covering these issues for almost three years as The Times’s Mexico bureau chief, and I’ve noticed that as desperation on both sides of the border has ratcheted up in recent months, so has cooperation between the two governments.
That dynamic was on display at a summit in Mexico City this week between Biden and his Mexican and Canadian counterparts. I was struck by Biden’s obvious investment in building a rapport with Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, whose help he needs more than ever.
Biden thanked Mexico for helping manage what he called ‘the greatest migration in human history’ and defended his approach as a ‘middle’ way between ‘extremes’ in immigration policy ideas on the left and right.
In today’s newsletter, I’ll look at why so many people are migrating right now and what the U.S. and Mexico are trying to do about it.
Mass migration
So many people are migrating right now because of how bad life has gotten south of the border over the past few years. Latin America was hit with particular force by the pandemic and the economic downturn that followed.
The ranks of the poor in the region would grow by up to 45 million, the United Nations estimated. Hunger — driven by inflation, the war in Ukraine and the effects of climate change — is on the rise.
Unlike most of the rest of the world, when suffering hits Latin America, its hundreds of millions of residents can decide to walk to the United States.
Migrants have become so desperate that they are braving a 66-mile trek across a treacherous stretch of jungle at the Colombia-Panama border known as the Darién Gap. Once considered barely passable, it is now a thoroughfare for record numbers of migrants. Between 2010 and 2020, fewer than 11,000 people crossed on average each year. Last year, more than 248,000 people made the journey.
President Biden with Border Patrol agents in El Paso on Sunday.Doug Mills/The New York Times
Biden’s policy
Biden came to office two years ago vowing to undo the Trump administration’s harsh migration policies in favor of more ‘humane’ treatment of people fleeing their homes because they couldn’t eat, or were trying to escape violence.
Soon after his inauguration, Biden moved to stop immediately expelling unaccompanied children and tried to freeze deportations. (A judge halted the effort.)
But after a surge of migrants followed, the Biden administration eventually embraced stricter enforcement.
The administration had already benefited from what many consider to be a de facto border wall: a pandemic measure known as Title 42 that allows U.S. officials to quickly deport migrants who have crossed into the country illegally.
But Biden had been effectively prevented from applying that measure to Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, Haitians and Cubans — four nationalities that have become a growing source of migration. The governments in those countries were making it difficult to send their citizens back home, so Mexico was generally refusing to accept them.
Earlier this month, Biden announced that he had found a way to swiftly expel those migrants; Mexico had agreed to receive up to 30,000 of them per month.
What Mexico wants
Mexico’s government is seeking the same thing as the U.S.: to reduce the number of migrants coming through its borders.
The influx is hard for Mexico, the government says, because it strains already thin public resources and puts money into the hands of organized criminal groups that are smuggling people through. It’s also bad for migrants, who are forced to take treacherous journeys through Mexico’s violent corridors.
Part of Biden’s new policy addresses that need. The administration will give up to 30,000 people from the four countries the chance to enter the U.S. legally, but only if they don’t pass through Mexico and can meet other requirements.
Since the new policy was announced, a senior Mexican official told me, the government has already noticed a drop in those migrants entering Mexico — and the United States.” [New York Times]
UAE picks oil company chief to lead climate talks
“The United Arab Emirates on Thursday picked the leader of its state-owned oil company to be president of the United Nations climate talks, Conference of the Parties (COP28), in Dubai in the late autumn of this year.
Sultan al-Jaber is CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. He is also chairman of Masdar, a clean energy company, and is also the longtime climate envoy for the UAE, a country with both a state-run oil company (it is the third-largest OPEC producer) and the world’s largest single-site solar park.
His nomination immediately drew harsh criticism, with Greenpeace, for example, saying it was ‘deeply alarmed.’ Al-Jaber’s supporters stressed his experience. He has called for called for ‘a pragmatic, realistic and solutions-oriented approach’ to tackling the climate crisis and holding the warming of the planet to only 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, by 2050.
Last year’s conference—COP27—was hosted by Egypt. As NPR recalled in its report on Thursday, a call by some countries to reduce oil and natural gas use was not brought up for public discussion in the meeting presided over by Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry.
COP27 also saw an increase in attendees associated with the world’s largest oil and gas giants, leading some to worry that the forum for addressing the climate crisis has become captured by the very interests contributing to it.” [Foreign Policy]
“Zimbabwe law threatens health care workers. A new piece of legislation in Zimbabwe forbids health care workers deemed “essential” for striking for more than three days. Those in violation of the law could face a fine or even imprisonment of up to six months. Health workers warn that the bill will force health care workers to emigrate—according to the Health Services Board, over 4,000 doctors and nurses left the country since 2021—or ‘adopt a ‘slow-go’ attitude toward work, as Enock Dongo, president of the Zimbabwe Nurses Association, told the Guardian. The law came into effect this week as health care workers planned a national strike over pay.” [Foreign Policy]
Sweden finds rare earth deposits that could benefit Western consumers
“Sweden has discovered what is billed as Europe’s biggest deposit of rare earth minerals — a crucial component of electronics and clean energy technology — giving a significant boost to the continent’s hunt for trade security.
LKAB, the Swedish state-owned mining company, announced Thursday that it found deposits of more than 1 million tons of rare earth metals in the country’s far northern Lapland province.
Products ranging from smartphones to electric vehicles and even military jets require these rare earth elements, which are not currently mined in Europe, the company said. Much of the world’s supply comes from China, which has used them as a geopolitical tool.
LKAB president Jan Mostrom said in a statement that the find could be a ‘significant building block’ for Europe, which faces a ‘supply problem.’ But the company also said that it would take at least a decade before the rare earth minerals discovered hit the market….” Read more at Washington Post
“China warns against visiting elderly relatives. People in China have been warned not to visit their elderly relatives this lunar new year if those relatives had not yet been infected by COVID-19. The holiday begins later this month, and this year’s was meant to mark a return to normalcy, but a COVID-19 wave sweeping the country is expected to only increase as people travel for the lunar new year—putting a damper on festive celebrations.” [Foreign Policy]
“Brigitte backs French uniform bill. The first lady of France, Brigitte Macron, has said she supports making school uniforms mandatory, a move that she believes could save students time and money. Macron, herself a former teacher (indeed, her husband, French President Emmanuel Macron, was her former student), made her comments as the French National Assembly debated a bill that would make school uniforms compulsory. The country’s education minister, Pap Ndiaye, does not support the bill.” [Foreign Policy]
“House Democrats urge Biden to bounce Bolsonaro. In a letter, dozens of House Democrats urged U.S. President Joe Biden to not ‘provide shelter’ to former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. They asked for possible revocation of Bolsonaro’s visa and for ‘the Department of Justice and other relevant federal agencies to hold accountable, as appropriate, any actors based in Florida who may have financed or supported the violent crimes of January 8.’ Brazilian officials have been in touch with Rep. Bennie Thomas, the Democrat who was chair of the Jan. 6 committee, to discuss last Sunday’s storming of Brazilian government buildings by Bolsonaro supporters.” [Foreign Policy]
Lisa Marie Presley
“Lisa Marie Presley, the only daughter of the late Elvis Presley, died Thursday after suffering an apparent cardiac arrest. She was 54. ‘Priscilla Presley and the Presley family are shocked and devastated by the tragic death of their beloved Lisa Marie,’ said a statement from the family provided to CNN. ‘They are profoundly grateful for the support, love and prayers of everyone, and ask for privacy during this very difficult time.’ The singer spent her life in the spotlight from the start, after being born at the height of Elvis's fame in 1968. Parallel to her musical pursuits, Lisa Marie Presley was a mother of four and was married four times, including to music superstar Michael Jackson and actor Nicolas Cage. Tributes have been pouring in to honor her life and legacy.” [CNN]
Photo: Perry Aycock/AP
“Lives Lived: Paul Johnson, a prolific journalist, biographer and historian prized by conservatives, fashioned himself a man of letters in the great British tradition. He died at 94.” Read more at New York Times