The Full Belmonte, 11/3/2022
President Joe Biden speaks on Wednesday about threats to democracy ahead of next week's midterm elections.
Midterms
“In an urgent appeal to American voters, President Joe Biden delivered a sharp message Wednesday to those considering sitting out next week's midterm elections. ‘We can't take democracy for granted any longer,’ he said, emphasizing that the very future of the country is at stake. Biden added that there are candidates running ‘who won't commit to accepting the results of the elections they're in,’ and warned that targeted political violence might ensue if candidates refuse to concede. Biden's message comes as Democratic enthusiasm about voting is significantly lower than it was in 2018, according to a new CNN poll. Four years ago, 44% of Democratic registered voters said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting; now, just 24% say the same. Meanwhile, an enthusiastic Republican base has placed the GOP in a strong position in the race for control of the House of Representatives.” Read more at CNN
The Fed raised interest rates by another 0.75 percentage point to combat inflation, Chairman Jerome Powell said.
PHOTO: AL DRAGO/BLOOMBERG NEWS
The Fed raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage point for the fourth consecutive time.
After the two-day meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell said that might mean a half-point increase in December, but cautioned that the central bank was likely to raise rates higher than policy makers had anticipated in September. The question of how high rates should go is more important than when to slow the pace, he said. (Econ 101: There can be a lag before increases impact the economy.) Today’s move takes the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 3.75% and 4%. Officials are boosting rates at the fastest pace since the early 1980s to reduce inflation that’s running near a 40-year high. Before June, the Fed hadn’t raised rates by 0.75 point at a policy meeting since 1994.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Screenshot: Fox News, "The Story with Martha MacCallum"
“A new Wall Street Journal poll, conducted by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and Biden pollster John Anzalone, finds 19% of Americans — in the teens! — say the economy is on the right track.
Why it matters: The poll adds to a raft of signs that a disillusioned, anxious electorate is ready to use the midterms (5 days away!) to punish the party in power, Axios' Josh Kraushaar writes.
The poll illustrates a three-step dance:
If you don't follow politics obsessively, you're probably voting on pocketbook issues.
If you're voting your pocketbook, you're worried about inflation.
If you're worried about inflation, you're trending Republican.
Between the lines: In fresh evidence that economic and personal security (crime) surpass abortion as a top issue, the poll finds white suburban women favor Republicans by 15 points.
In August, that swing constituency backed Democrats by double-digits.
Over one-third of white suburban women rated rising prices as the top issue motivating them. Only 16% named abortion rights as their top concern.
One more finding: The poll tested a hypothetical rematch between President Biden and former President Trump in 2024. It found them tied at 46% — an exactly divided America.” Read more at Axios
Trump
“Former President Donald Trump filed a lawsuit to try to stop the New York attorney general from obtaining records from the trust that owns the Trump Organization. The civil lawsuit was filed hours after a New York judge denied an effort to move New York Attorney General Letitia James' $250 million lawsuit against Trump, his eldest children and others into another division of New York State court. Trump is seeking an injunction to block James from gaining information about the trust because he said James would ‘publicly disclose the information once obtained,’ Trump alleged in the lawsuit. Trump and James are due in court today for the first hearing since the lawsuit alleging fraud by the Trumps and their business was filed.” Read more at CNN
“Stewart Rhodes tried to get a message to Trump urging him to stop the transfer of power shortly after the US Capitol riot, according to a witness in the Oath Keepers founder’s criminal trial.” Read more at Bloomberg
Musk's Trumpian management style
Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Christian Marquardt/Pool via Getty Images
“Elon Musk's chaotic first few days as Twitter CEO carry echoes of former President Trump's White House, Axios managing editor Scott Rosenberg writes.
Why it matters: Musk's shoot-from-the-hip tweeting style has always had lots in common with Trump. Now, it turns out they have commonalities in management style.
The hallmarks:
Rely on an inner circle chosen for loyalty more than expertise.
Seize and hold public attention by rolling out new proposals and ideas on Twitter before they've been widely vetted internally.
Keep the existing organization in a state of uncertainty and fear.
Reality check: Musk is a veteran leader in business with success running companies like Tesla and SpaceX. Trump took over the government with zero government experience.
Unlike Trump, Musk actually replies to other users on Twitter and seems to enjoy the site.
Between the lines: Tweets are fast. Actual change to products and organizations happen more slowly.
Musk fans who expected a Twitter free-for-all in the hours after Musk tweeted ‘the bird is freed’ last Thursday were disappointed by his announcement this week that he won't change content moderation policies until he has formed a new council.
The bottom line: When the tweeting stops, you need managers and employees who understand your plan — not just maniacal improvisation — to make things happen.” Read more at Axios
Axios-AJC investigation: Kemp's messy rollout
Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
“The rollout of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp's cash payments to millions of low-income residents and families has been a mess for many from the beginning, Axios' Emma Hurt and The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Katherine Landergan found.
For nearly two months, Georgians have reported they've had transactions declined, cards suspended and even the money stolen before it could be spent.
Why it matters: Kemp's office said the plan — which uses federal COVID aid dollars — was designed to help people "cope" with the pandemic and record inflation.
But nearly a dozen recipients have said the state has struggled with the rollout, leaving many resorting to giving each other advice on social media.
The intrigue: Some recipients have complained that the rollout appeared rushed for political gain. The money was released in the months ahead of Kemp's reelection race Tuesday.” Read more at Axios
“Voting machines aren’t rigged and voter fraud isn’t rampant. The Times debunked five election myths.” Read more at New York Times
“As Republicans attack Biden’s immigration policies, some Democrats in close races are calling for more border enforcement.” Read more at New York Times
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
“Right-wing political groups have spent tens of millions of dollars on anti-transgender ads in battleground states. Many are directed toward Black and Spanish-speaking voters, accusing President Biden of pushing children to take cross-sex hormone medication and get gender-affirming surgery.” Read more at NPR
“Anti-abortion misinformation has surged in the Latino community ever since the Supreme Court struck down Roe, and much of it is focused on galvanizing voters or discouraging women from seeking abortions.” Read more at NPR
“The Powerball prize is now $1.5 billion — the third highest in history. It probably feels incredible to hold a winning ticket, but there's a dark side to the lottery system. The predatory gambling industry disproportionately targets low-income areas and communities of color.” Read more at NPR
Ukraine
“Russia's repeated attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine prompted emergency power outages and restrictions today, according to national energy company Ukrenergo. This week alone, attacks in several regions of Ukraine have left millions without electricity and water intermittently. Additionally, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant -- the largest power plant in Europe -- was again disconnected from Ukraine's power grid today due to Russian shelling that damaged the remaining high-voltage lines, officials said. The Zaporizhzhia plant has been subject to intense scrutiny since its occupation shortly after Russia's invasion in February. Intense shelling near the facility this summer sparked concerns of a potential nuclear accident.” Read more at CNN
“After a dayslong pause, Russia said it was rejoining a deal that allows the shipment of grain from Ukrainian ports.” Read more at New York Times
“Holding attention | Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska said her nation could perish if the world gives in to fatigue with the war sparked by Russia’s invasion. “Ukrainians are ready to endure in the dark, in the cold, the most terrible things, so the tragedies we’ve seen don’t happen again,” she said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Lisbon.
The war is creating an acute energy crisis in neighboring Moldova, exacerbated by its dependence on Russian gas and by Moscow’s antipathy toward the nation’s pro-Western government.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Show of strength | The US condemned what it said was the test-launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile by North Korea today, as Pyongyang continued a barrage of weapons tests to protest allied military drills. The suspected ICBM launch prompted Japan to issue text-message warnings, known as J-Alerts, for citizens to take cover. Tokyo initially said the missile flew over the country’s territory, although Japanese authorities later retracted that claim.
South Korean officials are growing wary of the potential impact on financial markets of North Korea’s missile salvos.” Read more at Bloomberg
“North Korean-Russian ties. North Korea has secretly sent “thousands” of artillery shells to Russia, the White House said, as the Kremlin attempts to strengthen its military campaign in Ukraine. To conceal its shipments, Pyongyang reportedly moved the weapons through other nations in the Middle East and North Africa.
‘Our indications are the DPRK is covertly supplying and we’re going to monitor to see whether shipments are received,’ said John Kirby, the White House’s national security spokesperson.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Ethiopia’s government and forces in the country’s northern Tigray region agreed to end a two-year civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people.” Read more at New York Times
Pakistan ex-PM Imran Khan shot and wounded at protest march
“Pakistan's former PM Imran Khan has been shot and wounded during a protest march in the eastern city of Lahore, in an apparent assassination attempt.
Members of his PTI party said another four people were hurt on Thursday - but no-one was killed.
It was not clear whether he had been hit in the foot or leg, but an aide was quoted as saying he was not in danger.
Mr Khan, 70, was leading the march on the capital Islamabad to demand snap elections.” Read more at BBC
Climate change: Kilimanjaro's and Africa's last glaciers to go by 2050, says UN
Image caption, The glaciers that cap Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania will be gone by 2050
By Patrick Hughes
BBC News Climate and Science
“Glaciers across the globe - including the last ones in Africa - will be unavoidably lost by 2050 due to climate change, the UN says in a report.
Glaciers in a third of UN World Heritage sites will melt within three decades, a UNESCO report found.
Mount Kilimanjaro's last glaciers will vanish as will glaciers in the Alps and Yosemite National Park in the US.
They will melt regardless of the world's actions to combat climate change, the authors say.
The report, which makes projections based on satellite data, comes as world leaders prepare to meet in Egypt for next week's COP27 climate change conference.
About 18,600 glaciers have been identified across 50 UN World Heritage sites. They represent almost 10% of the Earth's glacierised area and include renowned tourist spots and places sacred to local populations.
The retreat and disappearance of glaciers was ‘among the most dramatic evidence that Earth's climate is warming’, the report said.
‘We hope we might be wrong, but this is the hard science,’ said UNESCO project officer Tales Carvalho Resende, one of the authors. ‘Glaciers are one of the valuable indicators of climate change, because they're visible. This is something we can really see happening.’
The remaining glaciers in the other two thirds of UN World Heritage sites could be saved, but only if the world limits global warming to 1.5C, the authors say. Another UN report last week found that the world currently had ‘no credible pathway’ to achieve that.
Image caption, Glaciers in Yosemite National Park are under threat
The projections build upon a previous report which used models to compute how World Heritage site glaciers would change over time.
‘What is quite unprecedented in the historical record is how quickly this is happening,’ said Beata Csatho, a glaciologist from the University of Buffalo, who was not involved in the research.
‘In the middle of the 1900s, glaciers were quite stable,’ she said. ‘Then there is this incredibly fast retreat.’
World Heritage sites listed as having glaciers that will disappear by 2050 are:
Hyrcanian Forests (Iran)
Durmitor National Park (Montenegro)
Virunga National Park (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Huanlong Scenic and Historic Interest Area (China)
Yellowstone National Park (United States of America)
Mount Kenya National Park/Natural Forest (Kenya)
Pyrenees Mont Perdu (France, Spain)
Rwenzori Mountains National Park (Uganda)
Putorana Plateau (Russia)
Swiss Tectonic Arena Sardona (Switzerland)
Nahanni National Park (Canada)
Lorentz National Park (Indonesia)
Natural System Of Wrangel Island Reserve (Russia)
Kilimanjaro National Park (Tanzania)
Yosemite National Park (United States of America)
The Dolomites (Italy)
Virgin Komi Forests (Russia)
Image caption, Local communities and indigenous people will bear the brunt of the flooding caused by glacier loss
The report said that ice loss in World Heritage sites may have caused up to 4.5% of the observed global sea level rise between 2000 and 2020. These glaciers lose 58 billion tonnes of ice every year - equivalent to the total annual volume of water used in France and Spain put together.
Many people also depend on glaciers as their water source for domestic use and agriculture, and their loss could lead to a scarcity of fresh water during the dry seasons, said Prof Duncan Quincey, a glaciology expert at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the research.
‘That leads to food security issues because they were using that water to irrigate their crops,’ said Quincey.
Local communities and indigenous people will bear the brunt of the flooding caused by glacier loss, say the report's authors, urging that early-warning and risk-reduction disaster systems be put in place.
However the most obvious thing we need to do is limit global warming.
‘There's a message of hope here,’ said Carvalho Resende. ‘If we can manage to drastically cut emissions, we will be able to save most of these glaciers.’
‘This is really a call to take action at every level - not only at the political level, but at our level as human beings.’” Read more at BBC
“Tens of thousands of Brazilians protested President Jair Bolsonaro’s election defeat, massing outside military bases to demand that troops step in to prevent a transfer of power.” Read more at New York Times
“Drop blockades | Jair Bolsonaro called on his supporters to dismantlehundreds of road blocks, saying these harm Brazil’s economy and aren’t a legitimate form of protest. Some who refused to accept the president’s defeat in Sunday’s election congregated outside army bases, criticizing the voting process and holding signs calling on the military to intervene to overturn the official results.
Despite Bolsonaro’s loss, Daniel Carvalho writes that his brand of right-wing identity politics is now deeply anchored in Brazil.” Read more at Bloomberg
Bolsonaro arriving for a mass at the Cathedral Basilica of the National Shrine of Our Lady of Aparecida in Sao Paulo state on Oct. 12. Photographer: Caio Guatelli/AFP/Getty Images
Netanyahu poised to form Israel's most right-wing government
“Benjamin Netanyahu is on track to return as Israel's prime minister with early returns showing his right-religious bloc in the lead after Tuesday's election. It would be a triumph for Nentanyahu and his Likud-led government that consists of the ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, as well as the far-right Religious Zionism party. The Religious Zionism party is expected to play a crucial role in Netanyahu's government and receive senior ministry portfolios. The party is known for its anti-LGBTQ policies and hateful rhetoric against Arab-Israelis and Palestinians, and could also affect Israel’s relations with the U.S., its most important ally.” Read more at USA Today
Likud party chairman Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to polling station during Israeli elections in Jerusalem, on Nov. 1, 2022.Maya Alleruzzo, AP
“Canada’s immigration policy. Canada has pledged to add 1.45 million immigrants to its population by 2025 to bolster its labor force. Immigrants now comprise 23 percent of the country’s population, according to census data.
‘Look, folks, it’s simple to me: Canada needs more people,’ said Sean Fraser, the Canadian immigration minister. ‘Canadians understand the need to continue to grow our population if we’re going to meet the needs of the labor force, if we’re going to rebalance a worrying demographic trend, and if we’re going to continue to reunite families.’” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Tehran’s protest response. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to soften his rhetoric toward the country’s young protesters on Wednesday, saying that they ‘are our own kids and we don’t have any dispute with them.’ He instead continued to blame Western countries for directing the protests and engaging in acts of ‘hybrid warfare,’ the Wall Street Journal reported.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“CVS and Walgreens agreed to pay about $5 billion each to settle thousands of lawsuits over the opioid crisis.” Read more at New York Times
“Les Moonves, the former chief of CBS, and the network’s parent company agreed to pay $9.75 million to settle a case related to sexual misconduct claims against him.” Read more at New York Times
“Flawed pulse oximeters may have contributed to Covid deaths, doctors warned.” Read more at New York Times
The Astros silence the mob, emphatically
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
“We wrote yesterday that the Astros needed starting pitcher Cristian Javier to shove – and shove he did. (With some relief help.) The World Series is tied 2-2 after Houston no-hit the red-hot Phillies bats, 5-0, last night.
It’s the first no-hitter in the World Series since Don Larsen threw a perfect game in 1956. Let’s re-emphasize that this Phillies team hit five home runs Tuesday. Talk about a turnaround. This series is already everything we wanted it to be.
Takeaways:
The Astros are still relentless. They battered Aaron Nola once again. They deflated a raucous crowd. This Astros team could easily reel off two more wins and surprise no one. The only question in hindsight is why Houston decided to wait until Game 4 to start Javier, whose ‘invisible fastball’ befuddled Phillies hitters for six innings.
Game 5 now feels like a must-win for the Phillies. It’s hard to imagine winning two games in Houston to win the series, so tonight’s game feels like a breaking point. Justin Verlander will try to rectify his Game 1 performance against the Phillies, who will start Noah Syndergaard.
First pitch is at 8:03 p.m. ET on FOX.” Read more at The Athletic
“Potential sale: The Washington Commanders owners Daniel and Tanya Snyder have hired bankers to explore selling the team amid mounting pressure from politicians and fellow N.F.L. team owners.” Read more at New York Times
“Under fire: Nets guard Kyrie Irving announced he will donate $500,000 to organizations that ‘work to eradicate hate and intolerance’ after he promoted an antisemitic documentary on Twitter.” Read more at New York Times
Butter sales boom
Butter board by Leslie Hobbs of Seattle. Photo: Leslie Hobbs via AP
“The viral TikTok butter board craze appears to be boosting sales, writes Torey Van Oot of Axios Twin Cities:
Land O'Lakes — based in Arden Hills, Minn. — says its total U.S. volume sales for sticks of butter rose 7.6% in the four weeks following the mid-September social media clip that made butter boards a thing.
Demand spread even more last month, with monthly sales up 18.2% over Oct. 2021.
Reality check: Fall is the unofficial start of the baking season. So it's impossible to say for sure what's really driving the dairy demand.
What's happening: A ‘butter board’ is like a stylized charcuterie board, but with ... butter.
You slather softened spread on a serving dish, sprinkle it with herbs, edible flowers or other toppings — and scoop it up with your carb of choice.
TikTok videos with the hashtag #Butterboard have been viewed more than 332 million times.
What we're watching: Now there are brownie boards, cream-cheese boards, buttercream-frosting boards and smoked-salmon boards.” Read more at Axios