The Full Belmonte, 11/29/2023
Negotiators are pressing for a long-term Israel-Hamas truce.
Red Cross members prepare to transport hostages released by Hamas on Tuesday.
“The chief brokers of the hostage-prisoner exchange want to prolong the cease-fire in Gaza beyond the current two-day extension and start talks to end the war altogether, said Egyptian and Qatari officials. Hamas today released 12 hostages, including 10 Israelis who were kidnapped during the U.S.-designated terrorist organization’s deadly Oct. 7 attacks on the country. A continuing cease-fire would likely require Israel and Hamas to make hard-to-swallow concessions, such as trading Israeli soldiers for potentially thousands of Palestinian prisoners, Israel pausing the southern offensive intended to capture the strip and kill Hamas’s top leadership, and the militant group accepting demilitarization, the officials said.” [Wall Street Journal]
Family of 10-month-old infant abducted by Hamas pleads for his release
“The groups of hostages released by Hamas so far have not included the youngest of the estimated 30 children kidnapped, 10-month-old Kfir Bibas.
Kfir’s family has received no word that he’s still alive. When the baby wasn’t released on Monday, his family released a statement saying that “the understanding that we won’t receive the embrace we so wished for has left us without words.”
The IDF said Monday that Kfir, his 4-year-old brother Ariel, and their parents have all been transferred by Hamas to another terror group in Gaza.
Eight to nine Americans are believed to be among the hostages in Gaza. The only American released during the cease-fire so far, 4-year-old Abigail Mor Edan, has been reunited with relatives after her parents were killed during the Oct. 7 terror attacks.
Abigail’s family told the “TODAY” show that her rescue was a ‘miracle,’ and they ‘can only pray and hope that as the days go on she will be able to live a good life.’” [NBC News]
James "Chip" Carter kisses his father, former President Carter, at a memorial service for former First Lady Rosalynn Carter in Atlanta today as Amy Carter looks on. Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP
“Former First Lady Rosalynn Carter was honored at a memorial service featuring a host of dignitaries, including her 99-year-old husband former President Carter. Jill Biden and all living former first ladies were in attendance, Axios' Emma Hurt writes from Atlanta.” [Axios]
Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s closest friend and consigliere for six decades, died at age 99.
Charlie Munger, seen in 2019, was also a brilliant investor in his own right.
PHOTO: MICHAEL LEWIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
“In public, especially at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meetings, the billionaire vice chairman deferred to Buffett; in private, the opposite was often true. Munger’s sharp wit dazzled generations of investors. Buffett, the chairman, nicknamed Munger the ‘abominable no-man’ for his ferocity in rejecting potential investments. Munger, who was fascinated by engineering and technology, pushed the tech-phobic Buffett into big bets on Chinese battery and electric vehicle maker BYD and Israeli machine-tool manufacturer Iscar. Munger was a brilliant investor in his own right. He began managing investment partnerships in 1962, and from then through 1969, the S&P 500 gained an average of 5.6% annually. Buffett’s partnerships returned an average of 24.3% annually, while Munger’s averaged annualized gains of 24.4%.” [Wall Street Journal]
Billionaire Charles Koch’s political group is backing Nikki Haley in a long-shot bid to prevent Donald Trump from winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
“Americans for Prosperity Action didn’t support Trump in 2016; the group has clashed over his opposition to long-held conservative beliefs about government spending and free trade, as well as its more welcoming stance on immigration. In recent weeks, Haley has increasingly won the backing of high-profile donors on Wall Street and elsewhere. A Trump campaign spokesman responded, ‘Americans for Prosperity—the political arm of the China First, America Last movement—has chosen to endorse a pro-China, open borders, and globalist candidate in Nikki ‘Birdbrain’ Haley.’ The former South Carolina governor served as U.N. ambassador in Trump’s administration.” [Wall Street Journal]
Deep freeze spreads across nation as snow slams Great Lakes
“Millions of Americans are experiencing their first blast of winter today, with freezing temperatures spreading across the eastern half of the country, and lake-effect snow slamming the Great Lakes and interior Northeast.
The cold air mass blowing over the Great Lakes is bringing lake-effect snow to parts of Michigan, northeast Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania and western New York.
Emergency crews south of Cleveland are at the scene of a pileup reportedly involving some 20 vehicles in snowy conditions along Interstate 271.
Snow amounts could total 30 to 40 inches in the Tug Hill Plateau area of Upstate New York.
Along the East Coast, temperatures are 10 to 20 degrees below average. Wind chills fell into the 20s in New York today.
Wind chills below zero were recorded this morning across parts of the Midwest, including Minneapolis and Chicago.
Tomorrow, the coldest morning lows of the season are expected across the Southeast. Mobile, Tallahassee, Savannah and Charleston could all see temperatures near or below 32 degrees overnight.” [NBS News]
Hunter Biden offers to testify publicly before GOP-led House committee
“Hunter Biden is willing to testify publicly before the House Oversight Committee, an attorney for President Biden’s son said today, but the committee’s Republican chairman quickly rejected the offer.
The committee subpoenaed Hunter Biden earlier this month and summoned him for a closed-door transcribed interview, as it escalates its impeachment inquiry into the president.
In a letter today to committee chair James Comer, the younger Biden’s attorney wrote, ‘We have seen you use closed-door sessions to manipulate, even distort the facts and misinform the public. We therefore propose opening the door.’
In response, Comer accused Hunter Biden of ‘trying to play by his own rules’ and said ‘we expect full cooperation with our subpoena for a deposition.’ Comer added that Hunter Biden should have the opportunity to testify in public at a future date.
The White House has slammed the impeachment inquiry, and said Republicans have uncovered no evidence of wrongdoing by President Biden.” [NBC News]
Gas prices
‘Gas prices in the US have dropped for more than 60 days in a row and more relief at the pumps could be on the way. The average price for a gallon of regular gas stands at $3.25 a gallon, according to AAA. That's down 5 cents from a week ago and 63 cents since September. Analysts also say that figure is inflated by high-cost gas states like Hawaii, Washington and California (though even California prices have dropped by 43 cents over the past month to $4.88 a gallon). It's normal for gas prices to cool off once the summer driving season ends, but the magnitude of the current drop is significant because it comes in the face of a series of international conflicts that were expected to disrupt supply.” [CNN}
Fruit recall
“Several large retailers in the US — including Publix, Walmart and Aldi — received recalled fruit, the FDA warned Tuesday. The batches of non-organic peaches, plums and nectarines have been linked with a Listeria outbreak that caused at least 11 illnesses in seven states, with 10 hospitalizations and one death, health officials said. The FDA notes that the fruit also went to companies that may have frozen or relabeled it. Anyone who has frozen peaches, plums or nectarines should throw them away if the products are or may be part of the recall. The FDA and the CDC are also investigating an ongoing salmonella outbreak linked with recalled cantaloupe products that's caused at least 99 illnesses and two deaths in 32 states.” [CNN]
“Alex Murdaugh, the disgraced South Carolina attorney who is already serving two life sentences for the murders of his wife and son, was sentenced to another 27 years today after pleading guilty to financial crimes as part of a deal with prosecutors.” [NBC News]
Burns visits Qatar
CIA Director William Burns testifies before the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee in Washington, D.C. on March 10, 2022.Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
“U.S. CIA Director William Burns touched down in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday for high-level negotiations with the Qatari prime minister and Israel’s spy chief as part of a broader diplomatic effort to expand on the now six-day truce between Israel and Hamas.
In Doha, Burns is expected to call for men and military personnel to be included in hostage negotiations, which so far have focused on civilian women and children, as well as for a prolonged break in fighting and Hamas’s release of American hostages, according to the Washington Post. Tuesday’s talks come a day after Israel and Hamas agreed to extend their four-day hostage deal truce by two days, in return for the release of 20 hostages held by Hamas and 60 Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Burns’s meeting with Mossad Chief David Barnea and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani marks the latest effort to secure a longer halt in fighting that could help pave the way for a future cease-fire, even as Israeli officials vow to resume military operations once the deal expires. Under the terms of the initial deal, Israel has agreed to one-day extensions in exchange for the release of 10 additional hostages held by Hamas—for a maximum of 10 days.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is also set to travel to Israel, the West Bank, and the United Arab Emirates in the coming days, U.S. officials announced on Monday. The upcoming trip will be his third visit to the region since Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack against Israel.
‘Secretary Blinken will discuss Israel’s right to defend itself consistent with international humanitarian law, as well as continued efforts to secure the release of remaining hostages, protect civilian life during Israel’s operations in Gaza, and accelerate humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza,’ a U.S. State Department spokesperson said. Blinken will also discuss ‘tangible steps to further the creation of a future Palestinian state, and the need to prevent the conflict from widening.’” [Foreign Policy]
“More than 40 Indian construction workers were rescued from a collapsed tunnel. A landslide had trapped the men 17 days ago. They were evacuated one by one through a three-foot pipe and miraculously none of them appeared to be injured.” [Times of London]
The government can't convince people to have kids
AM YEH/AFP via Getty Images
“Birth rates are dropping all over the world, and nobody seems to have great ideas for bringing them back up. The US birth rate has been in decline since the Great Recession; the developed countries of Europe and Asia have in some cases battled slowing population growth for decades.
This is, at least in part, a result of improvements in people’s quality of life. People generally don’t depend on children economically like they used to, and scientific advances have made it easier to prevent unwanted pregnancies. Having kids is more of a choice than it has ever been.
But fewer children being born does invite long-term risks. Economists warn of a ‘people shortage’ in the future, in which the tax base of a shrinking working-age population is unable to support a growing number of seniors entitled in most developed nations to generous welfare. Older people often rely on younger family members to help care for them; there will be fewer sons and daughters, nieces and nephews around to share that burden.
It’s a slow-rolling crisis but an important one. Worryingly, however, it has proven stubbornly resistant to interventions.
Governments across the world recognize the problem and they have tried to fix it. Taiwan has spent $3 billion on expanding its paid parental leave and tax breaks. It’s even held singles mixers. Austria gave new mothers two and a half years of maternity leave; Germany guaranteed a spot in public day care for every child over the age of 1.
But these policies don’t seem to convince people. They may alter behavior on the margins, particularly people’s decisions about when to have kids. But they ‘don’t ultimately affect the number of kids people have,’ said Alison Gemmill, a professor of population, family, and reproductive health at Johns Hopkins University.
The world today gives people plenty of reasons not to have children. Experts say climate change, war, and the deterioration of democratic norms in parts of the developed world may be contributing to young people’s reluctance to procreate. The raw economics are also not helping. About a quarter of Americans say they have or plan to have fewer children than they ideally would, in large part because of the cost.
Experts worry about coercive policies meant to boost the birth rate.Iran has reversed its once-liberal contraception policy, cracking down on abortions and access to birth control to push people to have more babies. China has a history of authoritarian fertility policies; experts fear the country could punish women who don’t have enough children.
The focus instead should be on making it easier for people to have the families they want. Many experts believe that the best thing governments can do to increase birth rates is help people have as many kids as they want. Investments in maternal health care, paid family leave, and more support for child care are some of the obvious targets.
Read the rest of Anna North’s rundown on the failed experiments to stem the worldwide drop in birth rates.” [Vox]
“Diplomatic spat. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak are publicly feuding after Sunak’s last-minute cancellation of their planned talks on Tuesday. Sunak’s snub came just a day after the Greek leader appeared on the BBC to advocate that Britain return the Parthenon Sculptures to Greece, a sore point that has long created tension between the two countries. The ancient Greek works of art, also called the Elgin Marbles, were taken from Greece by a British aristocrat known as Lord Elgin in the 19th century and are currently in the possession of the British Museum.
‘I express my annoyance that the British prime minister canceled our planned meeting just hours before it was due to take place,’ Mitsotakis said, while a Greek government spokesperson called the cancellation ‘unprecedented’ and ‘disrespectful.’ Mitsotakis refused to meet with British Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden in place of Sunak.” [Foreign Policy]
“The wife of Ukraine’s spy chief, Marianna Budanova, has been poisoned with heavy metals, a spokesman for the country’s military intelligence has told the BBC.” [BBC]
“New Zealand’s tobacco U-turn. New Zealand’s new center-right coalition government plans to reverse the country’s widely-heralded smoking ban and use the revenue from increased tobacco sales to help pay for its proposed tax cuts. The 2022 law, passed under former Prime Minister Jacinda Arden, would have prohibited the sale of tobacco products by 2027 to those born on or after Jan. 1, 2009, and progressively increased the country’s legal smoking age.
The move has drawn sharp criticism from health policy experts, who warn of damaging public health impacts and long-term healthcare costs. ‘This is major loss for public health, and a huge win for the tobacco industry—whose profits will be boosted at the expense of Kiwi lives,’ Boyd Swinburn, co-chair of Health Coalition Aotearoa in New Zealand, said.” [Foreign Policy]
“Floods ravage East Africa. Kenyan authorities are calling on civilians to evacuate from flood-prone areas amid a rising death toll across East Africa. In Kenya, weeks of torrential rains have killed at least 76 people and displaced as many as 40,000; authorities estimate that at least 216 people have died across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. The extreme precipitation has also led to ‘disease outbreaks, destruction of infrastructure and property, as well as prolonged power outages,’ according to the Kenyan government.” [Foreign Policy]
Pope punishes leading critic Cardinal Burke in second action against conservative American prelates
“Pope Francis has decided to punish one of his highest-ranking critics, Cardinal Raymond Burke, by revoking his right to a subsidized Vatican apartment and salary in the second such radical action against a conservative American prelate this month, according to two people briefed on the measures.” Read More at AP News
Fake babies, real horror: Deepfakes from the Gaza war increase fears about AI’s power to mislead
“Pictures from the Israel-Hamas war have vividly and painfully illustrated AI’s potential as a propaganda tool, used to create lifelike images of carnage. Since the war began last month, digitally altered ones spread on social media have been used to make false claims about responsibility for casualties or to deceive people about atrocities that never happened.” Read More at AP News
Cyber Monday scorcher
“U.S. shoppers pounced on deep online discounts on Cyber Monday to spend a record $12.4 billion on online purchases — up 9.6% from last year, Axios' Hope King writes from Adobe Analytics data.
Why it matters: Government data that shows retail behavior pulled back slightly last month suggests consumers were waiting for deals to launch around Thanksgiving.
By the numbers: Online spending during the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday was up 7.8% year over year, totaling $38 billion.
The new numbers come days after Americans set a new Black Friday online spending record, shelling out $9.8 billion — a 7.5% jump from last year.
The National Retail Federation separately reported that a record 200 million people shopped online and in person during the period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday.” [Axios]
Milestone for cleaner jet fuel
A Virgin Atlantic plane flying on "sustainable aviation fuels" takes off from London Heathrow this morning. Photo: Peter Nicholls/Reuters
“A normal-looking Boeing 787 landed at New York's JFK Airport this afternoon. But it was no ordinary voyage, Axios Generate co-author Ben Geman writes.
Why it matters: The Virgin Atlantic trip was the first commercial widebody airliner crossing powered 100% by ‘sustainable aviation fuels’ — mostly used cooking oil.
State of play: It has 70% lower ‘lifecycle’ emissions — including production and other steps through combustion — than regular fuel, according to the airline.” [Axios]