The Full Belmonte, 11/28/2023
CIA director holds secret meeting with Israel’s intelligence chief to push for a broader hostage deal and longer fighting pause
“William Burns arrived in Qatar to speak with Mossad leader David Barnea and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, whose government has facilitated the ongoing talks between Israel and Hamas. The CIA chief intends to urge both sides to expand the type of people included in the hostage negotiations, limited thus far to women and children, and to consider a longer pause on the fighting in Gaza.”
Read more at Washington Post
Suspect pleads not guilty in shooting of three students of Palestinian descent
“A 48-year-old man pleaded not guilty today to attempted murder charges in the shooting of three college students of Palestinian descent in Vermont, an incident the FBI is investigating as a possible hate crime.
Jason Eaton was arrested near the scene of Saturday’s shooting in Burlington, police said. He was ordered held without bail.
The victims have been identified by relatives as Hisham Awartani, Kinnan Abdalhamid, and Tahseen Ahmed, all 20 years old.
The three were staying at Awartani’s grandmother’s house for Thanksgiving, according to family members. The gunman confronted them as they approached a house near the University of Vermont Saturday night and opened fire, according to court documents.
All three victims remain hospitalized. Awartani was shot in the spine, Aliahmad was wounded in the chest and Abdalhamid was hit in his lower extremities, according to court documents.” [NBC News]
Jimmy Carter expected to attend wife’s memorial services
“Former President Jimmy Carter is expected to attend memorial services today and tomorrow for his late wife, former First Lady Rosalynn Carter, depending on how he is feeling, according to a source with knowledge of his whereabouts.
The Carter Center has separately confirmed that Carter plans to attend a tribute service on Tuesday at Glenn Memorial Church on the Emory University campus.
President Joe Biden, First Lady Jill Biden, and Vice President Kamala Harris are also expected to attend the service.
The 99-year-old former president entered hospice care in February and has since rarely been seen in public.
Rosalynn Carter died on Nov. 19 at the couple’s home in Plains, Georgia, at the age of 96. She is lying in repose at the Carter Presidential Library in Atlanta today from 6 to 10 p.m. ET.” [Axios]
White House farewell
Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
“The portrait of former first lady Rosalynn Carter — who died last week in Plains, Ga., at 96 — was draped in black bunting as the White House debuted its holiday decor yesterday.
Former President Jimmy Carter, 99, plans to attend a memorial church service for her in Atlanta today.
Also expected are President Biden and Jill Biden, Vice President Harris and Doug Emhoff, former President Clinton and Hillary Clinton, and all living former first ladies.
A more private funeral will be held tomorrow in Plains.” [Axios]
“Supreme Court justices seemed to be looking for a middle ground as they heard arguments over which drug offenses should count toward a law meant to keep guns from criminals.” [New York Times]
Donations to GOP drop as worries mount about the party’s finances
“Donors have not cut as many large checks to the Republican National Committee in recent years, and the party’s small-dollar program has also suffered. The problems leave the Democratic Party with nearly twice as much money as the RNC.”
Read the story at Washington Post
Trump says he will renew efforts to replace ‘Obamacare’ if he wins a second term
“After failing to repeal it while in the White House, the former president threatened over the weekend that he was ‘seriously looking at alternatives.’ The comments drew rebuke from Democratic President Joe Biden's campaign. Read more.
Why this matters:
Health care has generally been a better issue for Democrats than Republicans, who have largely abandoned efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act in recent years. The back-and-forth points to what could be a key issue in a general election rematch between Trump and Biden if both win their parties’ nominations, as is widely expected.
Biden, in particular, has begun painting a vision of a catastrophic future if Trump wins — a strategy that could motivate lukewarm Democratic voters who may be driven more by a desire to stop Trump than to deliver a second term to Biden amid lingering concerns over high inflation, the direction of the country and his age.
Biden’s campaign quickly seized the opportunity. Beyond the new ads, the campaign will host a press call today with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper to highlight the potential impact of repealing the law, while state Democratic parties in swing states will host their own events.” [AP News]
As Trump's fraud trial eyes his sweeping financial reports, executive says they're not done anymore
“Donald Trump’s company no longer prepares the sweeping financial statements that New York state contends were full of deceptive numbers for years, an executive testified Monday at the former president’s civil fraud trial.” Read More at AP News
One of the world’s largest icebergs is drifting beyond Antarctic waters after it was grounded for 3 decades
“The iceberg, known as A23a, split from the Antarctic’s Filchner Ice Shelf in 1986. But it became stuck to the ocean floor and had remained for many years in the Weddell Sea. The iceberg is about three times the size of New York City and more than twice the size of Greater London.” Read More at AP News
Many voters are weary about a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024. Third parties hope they can fill the gap
“The 2024 presidential election is drawing an unusually robust field of independent, third party and long shot candidates hoping to capitalize on Americans’ ambivalence and frustration over a likely rematch between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump.” Read More at AP News
Biden boosts U.S. drugmaking
Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios
“Amid widespread drug shortages, President Biden is outlining a plan to increase domestic production of essential pharmaceuticals — including by leveraging a defense law used to bolster countermeasures against COVID.
Why it matters: The number of drugs in shortage is higher than at any point in almost a decade — while U.S. drug manufacturers largely depend on overseas suppliers for active pharmaceutical ingredients, Axios' Maya Goldman reports.
Biden announced that he'll use the Defense Production Act, among other measures, to create more essential medicines in the U.S.
The Korean War-era law, invoked by Biden and former President Trump during the pandemic, allows the president to direct private companies to produce materials and goods needed for national defense.
What we're hearing: Biden will give HHS the authority to invest in medical products unrelated to the pandemic, including insulin, morphine, vaccines and ventilators, a White House official told Axios.” [Axios]
A mysterious and fatal dog respiratory illness is now in 14 states
“An unknown and potentially deadly contagious canine respiratory illness that began in one Western state this summer now spans more than a dozen states, the nation's lead non-profit veterinary organization is reporting. As of Monday the disease had been reported in 14 states stretching from Florida to California and the cause of the mysterious illness remained under investigation. Transmission of the disease remains unknown and symptoms include difficulty or rapid breathing, wheezing, dehydration, fever, nasal or eye discharge, weight loss, loss of appetite and lethargy.” Read more at USA Today
Israel, Hamas Extend Truce
International Red Cross vehicles reportedly carrying hostages released by Hamas cross the Rafah border point in Gaza on the way to Egypt from which they would be flown to Israel to be reunited with their families, on Nov. 24.Mohammed Abed/AFP via Getty Images
“Israel and Hamas have agreed to extend their four-day pause in fighting by two days, Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on Monday, continuing a tenuous wartime agreement that has brought temporary relief to civilians in Gaza and seen more than 50 hostages returned to Israel.
U.S. officials welcomed the announced extension, which is expected to result in the release of 20 more hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Israel’s release of 60 additional Palestinian prisoners. In accordance with the initial deal, Israel had agreed to a one-day extension for every 10 additional hostages freed—so long as the total duration of the humanitarian pause does not exceed 10 days.
‘In order to extend the pause, Hamas has committed to releasing another 20 women and children over the next two days,’ White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Monday. ‘We would, of course, hope to see the pause extended further, and that will depend upon Hamas continuing to release hostages.’
Of the 240 hostages that Hamas was estimated to be holding, the militant group has already released 58 hostages, 39 of whom were Israeli or dual-national women and children. In return, Israel has freed more than 100 Palestinian women and children. The Israeli government is currently holding as many as 7,200 Palestinian prisoners, according to estimates from the Palestinian Prisoners Society.
The deal has also allowed the entry of much-needed humanitarian aid, including food, water, and medical supplies, into Gaza, where the death toll has climbed to more than 14,800, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. But delays in hostage releases and other complications over the past four days have underscored the fragility of the deal, with both Hamas and Israeli officials accusing each other of violating the agreement at separate points.
U.S. President Joe Biden remains hopeful that the pause in fighting could pave the way for a broader cease-fire, declaring that the ‘chances are real’ that the temporary cessation could become a longer-term deal. So far, however, Israeli officials appear committed to resuming operations. ‘I want to assure the families of all the hostages: We will not stop, we will resume the efforts and the military action in Gaza to retrieve the hostages and restore deterrence,’ war cabinet minister Benny Gantz said on Friday.” [Foreign Policy]
“Storms hit Russia-Ukraine war zone. An intense storm swept Ukraine and Russia on Monday, triggering extensive floods and cutting power to communities in southern Ukraine and the country’s Russian-occupied territories amid frigid temperatures. In the aftermath of the storm, nearly 2 million people were left without power in southern Russian regions, the Crimean Peninsula, and Russian-occupied areas of eastern Ukraine, according to the Russian Energy Ministry.
The storm’s disruptions came just days after Kyiv faced its worst Russian drone attack since the beginning of the war, according to Ukrainian officials. ‘A total of nearly 75 Shahed drones were launched from two directions – Primorsko-Akhtarsk and the Kursk region, Russia,’ the Ukrainian Air Force said in a Telegram post, adding that it was a ‘record number’ of drones.” [Foreign Policy]
Intercepted calls from the front lines in Ukraine show a growing number of Russian soldiers want out
“As the war grinds into its second winter, a growing number of Russian soldiers want out, as suggested in secret recordings obtained by The Associated Press of Russian soldiers calling home from the battlefields of the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions in Ukraine.” Read More at AP News
Tunnel collapse
“Efforts are underway to rescue 41 workers trapped after a tunnel collapse in India. The men have been trapped since November 12 when part of the tunnel they were helping to construct in the country's Uttarakhand state gave way, blocking their only exit with more than 200 feet of broken rock, concrete and twisted metal. Earlier today, rescuers successfully drilled through to the men and appear to be in their final stretch to bring the workers to safety. Video broadcast on local television today showed jubilant scenes outside the tunnel, with people smiling and breaking into song after the drilling stopped.” [CNN]
“Sierra Leone lifts curfew. Sierra Leone has relaxed a 24-hour nationwide curfew that it imposed on Sunday after gunmen attempted to force their way into the country’s biggest military barracks and successfully breached detention centers. The detention center attacks allowed some prisoners to escape, while others were abducted by the assailants, according to the country’s information minister.
Officials said they have arrested most of the leaders involved in the attack, although they have not divulged the gunmen’s identities or motives. President Julius Maada Bio has characterized Sunday’s events as a ‘breach of security,’ and authorities plan to enforce a nine-hour-long curfew Monday night.” [Foreign Policy]
“COP28 controversy. With just days to go before key U.N. climate talks, known as COP28, kick off on Thursday in Dubai, the summit is facing new controversy over reports that its president, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber—who is also the CEO of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company—and his team schemed to use the UAE’s host nation position to secure new fossil fuel deals with more than 15 countries, according to leaked documents secured by the BBC and the Centre for Climate Reporting.
Al-Jaber’s leadership of this year’s summit had already faced opposition from critics who argued that having the head of one of the world’s largest oil producers host global talks aimed at addressing the climate crisis—primarily by reducing fossil fuel use—presented a conflict of interest that threatens the summit’s credibility.
The BBC report seems to provide vindication of those concerns. A spokesperson for the COP28 presidency refuted the report: ‘The documents referred to in the BBC article are inaccurate and were not used by COP28 in meetings,’ they said. ‘It is extremely disappointing to see the BBC use unverified documents in their reporting.’
As world leaders prepare to attend the climate talks, one big name won’t be participating: U.S. President Joe Biden. Top U.S. climate officials—including U.S climate envoy John Kerry, national climate advisor Ali Zaidi, and senior advisor John Podesta—are set to attend in his place. Like Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping is also expected to skip the summit.” [Foreign Policy]
“These are hard days for Ukraine as it enters a second winter of war with Russia.
Its long-prepared summer counteroffensive failed to live up to expectations. That’s sown doubts among some of Ukraine’s allies about sustaining the supply of weapons for a war going nowhere, adding to anxieties in Kyiv.
It’s music to Vladimir Putin’s ears as the Russian president seeks to consolidate his seizure of parts of southern and eastern Ukraine. Despite massive casualties and economic costs, the Kremlin feels it can wait for a splintering of international support for Ukraine that would allow Moscow to force acceptance of its gains.
That’s a challenge for NATO, whose foreign ministers meet in Brussels today for talks with their Ukrainian counterpart on measures to align Kyiv’s military more closely with the alliance’s standards.
The Israel-Hamas war has diverted international attention and slowed arms shipments to Ukraine even as the US and its European allies insist they’ll stand by Kyiv for as long as it takes.
Formally, they support Ukraine’s goal of NATO membership. That’s only realistic if the war is won.
Alongside mounting divisions in Europe, Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House in next year’s presidential elections is adding to Russian expectations that time is working in Putin’s favor. Trump has repeatedly criticized US lawmakers for aiding Kyiv.
Ukrainians know they have no choice but to fight on because they’re in an existential struggle against a neighbor determined to erase their state.
There’s a lot at stake for the US and Europe too. When Putin invaded, they accused him of an assault on the security of the continent that couldn’t be allowed to succeed.
This winter will test their will to make good on those words.” [Bloomberg]
Ukrainian soldiers before starting a night mission at the front line near Bakhmut on Oct. 26. Photographer: Julia Kochetova/Bloomberg
“Argentine President-elect Javier Milei headed straight to the tomb of a famous Orthodox Jewish rabbi in Queens after he arrived in New York City, donning a kippah and an all black outfit. It was a sign his incoming administration is shaping up to be one of the most pro-Israel governments in the nation’s history, while much of Latin America, a Catholic stronghold, remains neutral or even critical of Israel’s war in Gaza.” [Bloomberg]
Milei leaves after praying yesterday at the tomb of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson. Photographer: Andres Kudacki/AP Photo
“South Africa has reduced the percentage of its population infected with the virus that causes AIDS, offering lessons for other countries battling the scourge. A study that showed the country with the world’s biggest number of HIV cases is ‘on the right track’ is helping authorities design nuanced and regionally specific programs to curb the spread.” [Bloomberg]
“In a troubling sign for UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government before a probable election next year, a new poll shows most British voters don’t expect tax cuts proposed by Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt to improve their finances or the nation’s economy. Sunak is desperately trying to claw back support from people who have switched to the opposition Labour Party.
Sunak triggered a diplomatic spat with Greece over the repatriation of the Parthenon marbles by canceling at the last minute a one-on-one with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in London.” [Bloomberg]
“North Korea claimed its first spy satellite, launched into orbit last week, took photos of the White House, Pentagon and US naval stations.” ” [Bloomberg]
Photo: Government Press Office of Israel via Getty Images
“Elon Musk visited a kibbutz in southern Israel that was attacked by Hamas on Oct. 7. He has come under fire in recent weeks for endorsing an antisemitic post on X.” [Axios]
“Elon Musk: During a visit to Israel, the tech billionaire agreed the government would have final say on the use of the Starlink satellite internet system in Gaza.” [BBC]
“Nearly 50 countries are reporting measles outbreaks this year, three times the number that experienced an outbreak in 2020. More than 130,000 children died from measles in 2022, a 43 percent increase from the year before; this year could see another spike. A dozen countries have the polio virus circulating. Experts warn these are the deadly consequences of the world falling behind in childhood vaccinations during the pandemic.” [Vox] [New York Times]
“America’s cost-of-living squeeze, quantified. It now costs US families nearly $120 for a set of household goods that would have cost them $100 a few years ago. As the political world ponders why American voters remain so frustrated with a ‘good’ economy, this may give us a clue.” [Vox] [Bloomberg]
How ChatGPT rewired the world
Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios
“The lay of the Big Tech landscape has profoundly shifted in the year since OpenAI released ChatGPT on Nov. 30, 2022.
Why it matters: Every major company is beginning to reorder its world around generative AI. Most of Silicon Valley sees this as the biggest new-platform opportunity since the iPhone arrived 16 years ago, in 2007, Axios managing editor Scott Rosenberg writes from the Bay Area.
Google quickly started putting AI-written summaries at the top of its search results, even as leaders and investors worried about how the change could undermine the search giant's ad-based profit machine.
Google moved to transform DeepMind, which it acquired in 2014, from a research-oriented think tank into a product-focused operating unit.
Microsoft — OpenAI's closest partner and biggest investor — rushed to wrap ChatGPT-style assistants, which it calls copilots, into every corner of its enterprise-dominating office tools and operating systems.
Microsoft is now ‘the copilot company,’ CEO Satya Nadella tolda developer conference this month. In the future, he said, ‘there will be a copilot for everyone and everything you do.’
Meta is talking less about building the metaverse — an initiative around which Mark Zuckerberg renamed the company just two years ago — and much more about the ways generative AI will drive growth in social media engagement and advertising.
Meta has built its AI strategy around releasing open-source models aimed at preventing rivals from controlling the AI platform the way Apple and Google owned the smartphone.
Amazon hopes to parlay its Amazon Web Services subsidiary's dominance of cloud computing into a commanding position in generative AI.
With its Alexa voice assistant, the retail giant was a leader in the previous generation of conversational AI.
Apple remains Big Tech's most conspicuous laggard in the AI race ChatGPT set off. But tech's most valuable company is rumored to be at work on its own generative AI projects.
Historically, Apple has waited to swoop in and seize markets only when it believes emerging tech and public demand have perfectly aligned — and its own innovations can provide margin-boosting added value.” [Axios]
ChatGPT evolves insanely fast
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“In the year since OpenAI released ChatGPT, the technology has evolved at such a rapid pace that the original now seems almost quaint, Axios chief tech correspondent Ina Fried reports.
Why it matters: Many tech insiders were surprised by the technology a year ago — and have been astonished at just how fast generative AI is improving.
When ChatGPT launched to the public on Nov. 30, 2022, it was text-only, and could answer questions based on its training data only up to September 2021. Plus, it was highly prone to making up facts when it didn't know the answer, quickly introducing to the world a new meaning for the word "hallucination."
Still, ChatGPT was surprisingly powerful and became an overnight success. ‘Scary good’ was how we described it in a story days after its release.
More than 1 million people used it in the first five days.
Today's ChatGPT is trained up to April 2023, and can use Microsoft's Bing and the web to check for even more recent developments.
Then there's the ability to create the custom GPTs OpenAI introduced at its DevDay three weeks ago. Already thousands of those GPTs exist — including ones to create websites and even other custom GPTs.
Reality check: Asking a generic tool like ChatGPT to write a legal brief or make a diagnosis remains dicey. But results improve markedly if you use a specific engine trained on the best and latest information in a particular field.
What we're watching: It's not just about text. Diffusion-based image models have gone from Dali-esque to photorealistic.” [Axios]
Google will start deleting ‘inactive’ accounts in December. Here’s what you need to know
“Under Google’s updated inactive account policy, which the tech giant announced back in May, accounts that haven’t been used in at least two years could be deleted. Accounts deemed inactive could be erased beginning Friday.” Read More at AP News
Workers gain upper hand
“Workers have a lot of leverage right now — from highly paid AI engineers to teachers, delivery drivers and auto workers.
Why it matters: More than ever, employees are getting what they want — thanks in part to a very tight labor market, Axios' Emily Peck writes.
By the numbers: The U.S. unemployment rate has been below 4% for 21 straight months — the longest stretch since the late-1960s, as former Fed economist Claudia Sahm wrote this weekend.
The share of prime-age workers (25-54) who are employed is hovering at a 22-year high.
What's happening: With fewer workers available, companies have less leverage over employees — they can't rely on an unlimited pool of labor to keep things running. That's why you're seeing growth in real wages this year. Workers in many fields can demand raises.
It also helps explain why offices aren't filled back up with workers. Many of those working remotely have the power to just ... not go back in five days a week.
The tight labor market is also the backdrop to all the union action we've been reporting on for the past year or so — why UPS drivers got a great deal without striking and UAW workers just ratified the best contract they've seen in decades.
‘Workers have more power than they ever have,’ said Catherine Creighton, who worked for decades as a union-side labor lawyer, at a talk about the UAW contract on Monday.
What's next: Demographics may keep things tight for the long haul, as the population ages and politics hold back immigration growth.” [Axios]
Shadow music industry
Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
“Daryl Hall's lawsuit against John Oates could pull back the curtain on the secretive and booming music rights market, Axios' Dan Primack and Tim Baysinger write.
Why it matters: The growth of streaming music — coupled with the increase in licensing opportunities in TV shows, movies and video games — is increasing the value of holding song rights and making them attractive investments.
Catch up quick: Instead of licensing copyrights for a set amount of time, many artists are selling them outright to the highest bidder.
The benefit for the buyer depends on the deal. But investment firms view music rights as stable assets that likely won't depreciate.
State of play: Years ago, Hall and Oates sold part of their catalog. Now it appears that Oates recently agreed to sell at least some of his remaining rights.
Hall has long bemoaned the original deal and — under seal — sued to stop a new sale. The judge lifted some of it and said more information soon could be publicly disclosed.
That's of particular interest, given how little we typically learn about these music rights deals.
Zoom in: Money is flowing back into the industry after a yearlong dry spell and some financial trouble around Hipgnosis, one of its biggest players.
Last week, Broadcast Music Inc. — a major holder of music rights — was sold in a deal that could be worth $1.7 billion, according to industry trade outlet Music Business Worldwide.
Morgan Stanley is partnering with a large music publishing company to spend $700 million to acquire song copyrights.
Katy Perry sold catalog rights to five of her albums for $225 million.” [Axios]
SPORTS
“N.F.L.: The Chicago Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings, 12-10, without scoring a touchdown.
Personnel: The Carolina Panthers fired Frank Reich after 11 games, the shortest N.F.L. head-coaching tenure in over 40 years.
Panthers coach Frank Reich takes in the action during the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C., on Nov. 19, 2023.
Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports
N.B.A.: LeBron James experienced the largest margin of defeat in his professional career in the Lakers’ 138-94 loss to the 76ers. On the same night, he surpassed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for most minutes played in the league.” [New York Times]
“Lives Lived: Audrey Salkeld was a pioneering historian of Mount Everest who herself made it to within 8,000 feet of the summit. She died at 87.” [New York Times]