The Full Belmonte, 11/28/2022
© Associated Press / Patrick Semansky | The Capitol in January.
Democrats aim big before GOP takes over House
“Democrats who control both the House and Senate have ambitious to-do lists before Congress adjourns this year. What they lack are bipartisan agreements and commitments inside their party about what can or should get to President Biden’s desk in December.
Much of the president’s agenda will be blocked in 2023 by Republicans who will wield the House gavel and are eyeing the presidential sweepstakes in 2024.
Conservatives warn that U.S. funding for Ukraine’s military defense against Russia will shrink and the nation’s authority to borrow to pay its bills won’t get raised without a fight.
Democrats in Congress return to work today and Tuesday with a sense of urgency to exploit the lame-duck session to notch some successes while they still can. They want to fund the government before Dec. 16 without a shutdown, approve a major Pentagon blueprint that’s considered a must-pass measure, wrap a bow around funding for elections and other improvements (Politico and The New Yorker), protect same-sex marriage by statute and even carve out a way to help so-called Dreamers who arrived undocumented in the United States years ago as children.
Democrats are also feeling pressure to work quickly to raise the statutory debt limit well ahead of a potentially disastrous fiscal showdown in 2023 when the cutoff of $31.4 trillion is expected to be reached. Many analysts expect that Congress won’t defuse the debt ceiling conflict this year because Republicans see political leverage on their side (The Guardian).
In the meantime, Biden has asked lawmakers to rapidly approve $37 billion in additional funding for Ukraine against Russia (The Hill).
We don’t need to pass $40 billion, large Democrat bills … to send $8 billion dollars to Ukraine,” Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”
“It’s been very frustrating, obviously, even to the Ukrainians, when they hear these large numbers in the United States as the result of the burgeoned Democrat bills,” Turner added.
Democrats, like Republicans, are promoting legislative ‘priorities’ that will have to wait for the results of future election cycles. One example is Biden’s proposed reinstatement of a federal assault weapons ban or enactment of other gun restrictions that Democrats say would respond to U.S. mass shootings.
Six employees died last week at a Walmart in Chesapeake, Va., when a gunman opened fire. And in Colorado Springs, Colo., on Nov. 19, a gunman killed five people and injured 17 at a popular LGBTQ nightclub (PBS).
Gun control advocate Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) on Sunday told CNN that the upper chamber does not have 60 votes to cut off debate and pass a federal ban on assault weapons during the lame-duck session. He said his party would nonetheless like to hold such a vote (The Hill).
‘But let’s see if we can try to get that number as close to 60 as possible,’ Murphy continued. ‘If we don’t have the votes, then we’ll talk to Senator [Charles] Schumer and maybe come back next year with maybe an additional senator and see if we can do better.’
Murphy referred to the Democratic leader from New York as well as to the potential reelection of Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) on Dec. 6 against Republican challenger Herschel Walker. If Warnock wins the runoff, Democrats would have a majority with 51 seats next year.” Read more at The Hill
Georgia Senate runoff between Warnock and Walker growing bitter
“The extended Senate campaign in Georgia between Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger, football legend Herschel Walker, has grown increasingly bitter as their Dec. 6 runoff nears.
One thing to know: Because control of the Senate won't hinge on Georgia, the upcoming contest may be quieter — and less expensive — than the runoff in early 2021.
•There will still be plenty of money spent. Both candidates are already putting out new advertisements. And experts say their messaging may get a ‘degree nastier.’
•Why Saturday voting got controversial: Georgia counties were allowed to hold early voting this Saturday, but only after a ruling from the Georgia Supreme Court last week on a law that says early in-person voting is not allowed on a Saturday if the Thursday or Friday preceding it is a holiday.
•Meanwhile in Arizona: Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake filed a lawsuit against Maricopa County officials, accusing them of breaking election laws. But new state voter fraud units are finding few cases from midterms.” Read more at USA Today
Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., center, prepares to speak at a rally after being introduced by Civil Rights icon Andrew Young, left, and Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens on Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, in Atlanta.Ben Gray, AP
Lawyers: Buffalo supermarket gunman plans to plead guilty
By CAROLYN THOMPSON
“BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) — A white gunman who targeted a Buffalo supermarket in a predominantly Black neighborhood plans to plead guilty on Monday to killing 10 people and wounding three others, according to lawyers representing victims’ relatives.
Payton Gendron, 19, is scheduled to appear in Erie County Court for a hearing that was postponed for a week by a snowstorm.
Gendron’s lawyers disclosed in recent weeks that he planned to plead guilty to all of the counts in a state indictment and to waive his right to appeal, according to attorneys John Elmore and Terrence Connors, who represent families of those killed and injured.
Erie County District Attorney John Flynn declined to comment on the nature of Monday’s court appearance, citing a court-imposed gag order.
The 25-count grand jury indictment includes charges of murder, murder as a hate crime and domestic terrorism motivated by hate, which carries an automatic life sentence upon conviction.” Read more at AP News
Arizona counties face deadline to certify 2022 election
By JONATHAN J. COOPER
“PHOENIX (AP) — Six Arizona counties must decide Monday whether to certify 2022 election results amid pressure from some Republicans not to officially approve a vote count that had Democrats winning for U.S. Senate, governor and other statewide races.
Election results have largely been certified without issue in jurisdictions across the country. That’s not been the case in Arizona, which was a focal point for efforts by former President Donald Trump and his allies to overturn the the 2020 election and push false narratives of fraud.
Arizona was long a GOP stronghold, but Democrats won most of the highest profile races over Republicans who aggressively promoted Trump’s 2020 election lies. Kari Lake, the GOP candidate for governor, and Mark Finchem, the candidate for secretary of state, have refused to acknowledge their losses. They blame Republican election officials in Maricopa County for a problem with some ballot printers.” Read more at AP News
Anti-LGBTQ rhetoric surged ahead of Club Q shooting
“Just hours after a gunman opened fire in an LGBTQ nightclub late last weekend, Colorado Congresswoman Lauren Boebert offered her prayers for the five people killed and the dozens of others wounded in the assault. But a report in August that documented a surge in anti-LGBTQ rhetoric on social media by politicians and other public figures named Boebert as one of the worst offenders. Gay-rights activists and their allies say the inflammatory language that politicians and other public figures frequently use to denigrate members of the LGBTQ community creates a hostile environment that fuels anti-gay stigma and can lead to the kind of deadly violence seen at Club Q.” Read more at USA Today
Kebrina Chirdon lights candles at a memorial outside of Club Q on Friday, Nov. 25, 2022, in Colorado Springs, Colorado. The memorial, which was moved from a sidewalk outside of police tape around the club, is made up of hundreds of bouquets of flowers, candles and notes and has been growing since early Sunday morning.Parker Seibold, AP
Travel delays
“A severe weather system moving into the Pacific Northwest is causing delays and headaches for millions of travelers across the US. As of Sunday night, more than 6,000 flights into, out of, or within the US were delayed, according to FlightAware -- and more than 170 were canceled. The large storm system caused trouble on one of the busiest travel days of the year as many people tried to fly back from their Thanksgiving destinations. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an early forecast warning, calling for ‘a significant severe-weather event’ in the South which could affect more than 25 million people on Tuesday from eastern Texas to southern Indiana.” Read more at CNN
Idaho stabbings
“University of Idaho students are expected to return to campus today from Thanksgiving break despite the lack of a suspect or arrest in the stabbing deaths of four students at an off-campus home. It remains unclear how many students will show up to campus, but many have expressed hesitancy about returning until a suspect is in custody. It's been two weeks since the killings and dozens of local, state and federal investigators are still working to determine who carried out the brutal attack. Investigators have yet to find a weapon -- believed to be a fixed-blade knife -- and have sifted through more than 1,000 tips and conducted at least 150 interviews. The stabbings have unsettled the campus community and the town of about 25,000, which had not seen a murder since 2015.” Read more at CNN
“Business crackdown | The incoming Republican majority in the US House plans to put pressure on companies for their stances on immigration, equality and climate change that key leaders of the party are assailing as ‘woke capitalism.’ Top GOP members are already bearing down on the US Chamber of Commerce after the nation’s biggest business lobby backed some Democratic candidates in the midterm elections.” Read more at Bloomberg
Crowds target Xi
People hold white sheets of paper in Beijing yesterday to protest COVID restrictions. Photo: Thomas Peter/Reuters
“Amid stunning nationwide protests, China's government is sticking with the zero-COVID policies that have deeply damaged people's trust, Axios' Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian reports from Taipei.
Why it matters: Skyrocketing COVID cases mean Xi Jinping will likely be forced to choose between plunging his country back into draconian lockdowns — or abandoning his signature pandemic policy as crowds call for him to step down.
The latest: Chinese state media continued to praise zero-COVID measures today, signaling no change in official policy.
Chinese authorities haven't taken strong measures to crush the protests, such as mass arrests or the widespread deployment of security forces. Residents and police clashed in Shanghai.
Online censors, usually efficient at sanitizing dissent from Chinese social media, are struggling to delete the deluge of posts and videos criticizing the government's policies.
Protesters gather along a street in Beijing today. Photo: Michael Zhang/AFP via Getty Images
Blank sheets of paper (representing censorship) — also seen in Hong Kong too in 2020 — are a hallmark of the protests.
Reality check: While protests of this scale are unprecedented since Xi assumed power in 2012, China is a very long way from anything like regime change.
The Chinese ruler has full control of the political apparatus and the military, and there's no meaningful organized opposition.
What to watch: If protests keep spreading, the Chinese Communist Party's governing logic will demand a crackdown to — in the words of Mao Zedong — prevent a single spark from becoming a prairie fire.” Read more at Axios
Ukraine
“Ukraine's national power supplier says it's back at about 80% capacity following Russian strikes that have wreaked havoc on the country's energy grid ahead of winter. Power, water, heat and internet are ‘almost completely restored’ in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv after a scramble to make repairs, city leaders said today. The head of Ukraine's nuclear energy provider also said Russian forces may be preparing to leave the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which provided up to 20% of the country's electricity before Russia's invasion of Ukraine began in February. It has been under Russian control since March. The plant and the area around it have endured persistent shelling that has raised ongoing fears of a nuclear accident.” Read more at CNN
“Undermining effort | Hundreds of diplomats and health-security experts are gathering in Geneva to grapple with the increasing risk that viruses, bacteria and other pathogens could be used as weapons. But the presence of Russia, whose disinformation campaign alleging that the US has supported secret biological weapons laboratories in Ukraine, is likely to undermine the effort to ban the entire category of weapons.” Read more at Bloomberg
Brexit barged its way back onto the UK political agenda this month, with a report that Rishi Sunak’s government might seek closer ties with the European Union. Polling reveals mounting regret among the British people who voted to leave the EU in 2016. In recent days, a former Bank of England rate setter and the government’s own forecaster warned of a permanent hit to economic growth.
“Tory rebellion | Sunak is under pressure from more than 20 of his ruling Conservative Party lawmakers including his two predecessors to drop a ban on new onshore wind farms. It’s the second rebellion on the same legislation in less than a week, after Sunak pulled a vote on his housebuilding plans as dozens of Tories threatened to defy him.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Democracy test | Taiwan is set for a contentious presidential race in 2024 focused on rising tensions with China, after low turnout in local elections handed President Tsai Ing-wen’s party historic losses. The opposition Kuomintang, which favors eventual unification with China, gained power in both the capital, Taipei, and export hub Taoyuan. The results will ignite internal jockeying in the presidential race that is typically dominated by voter views on how the island democracy should handle relations with Beijing.” Read more at Bloomberg
Supporters of the Kuomintang opposition party celebrate preliminary results. Photographer: Lam Yik Fei/Bloomberg
“Polish women are planning to take to the streets to protestagainst the nation’s conservative government after its most powerful politician accused them of drinking too much and keeping the birth rate low. Reminiscent of the march by hundreds of thousands of women to oppose a near-total ban on legal abortions two years ago, the rally is ramping up pressure on the ruling nationalists as the country gears up for next year’s elections.” Read more at Bloomberg
Protesters mark the first anniversary of a Constitutional Court ruling that imposed a near-total ban on abortion, in 2021. Photographer: Wojtek Radwanski/AFP/Getty Images
“Indo-Pacific tilt | Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is boosting military spending and expanding trade ties in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China’s influence. Almost $1.7 billion will be used for more navy patrols in the region, better intelligence and cybersecurity measures, and increased cooperation with partners in the East and South China Seas.” Read more at Bloomberg
Employers Rethink Need for College Degrees in Tight Labor Market
Google, Delta Air Lines and IBM have reduced requirements for some positions
“The tight labor market is prompting more employers to eliminate one of the biggest requirements for many higher-paying jobs: the need for a college degree.
Companies such as Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Delta Air Lines Inc. and International Business Machines Corp. have reduced educational requirements for certain positions and shifted hiring to focus more on skills and experience. Maryland this year cut college-degree requirements for many state jobs—leading to a surge in hiring—and incoming Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro campaigned on a similar initiative.
U.S. job postings requiring at least a bachelor’s degree were 41% in November, down from 46% at the start of 2019 ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to an analysis by the Burning Glass Institute, a think tank that studies the future of work. Degree requirements dropped even more early in the pandemic. They have grown since then but remain below prepandemic levels.
The shift comes as demand for workers remains high and unemployment is low. Job postings far outpace the number of unemployed people looking for work—10.7 million openings in September compared with 5.8 million unemployed—creating unusually stiff competition for workers.
The persistently tight labor market has accelerated the trend that builds on a debate about the benefits and drawbacks of encouraging more people to attend four-year colleges and as organizations try to address racial disparities in the workplace.
Some occupations have universal degree requirements, such as doctors and engineers, while others typically have no higher education requirements, such as retail workers. There is a middle ground, such as tech positions, that have varying degree requirements depending on the industry, company and strength of the labor market and economy.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
November 28, 2022
Good morning. Remote learning erased students’ progress in math and reading, but it wasn’t the only factor.
A pre-calculus class in San Francisco in 2021.Jim Wilson/The New York Times
Behind the declines
“Months into the current school year, most American students are still trying to make up for what they lost during the pandemic. This fall, we saw some of the clearest evidence yet of the extent to which the pandemic — and the school closures that came with it — hurt children’s education.
Nine-year-olds lost the equivalent of two decades of progress in math and reading, according to an authoritative national test. Fourth and eighth graders also recorded sweeping declines, particularly in math, with eighth-grade scores falling in 49 of 50 states.
The data comes from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, a rigorous exam that evaluates thousands of children across the country and is overseen by a research arm of the U.S. Education Department.
Today, I’ll break down the factors that drove these declines and explain an important trend that helps show why these results are so sobering.
Remote learning’s role
First, to address one of the most common questions I hear as an education reporter: To what degree is remote learning responsible for these setbacks? The answer is both simple and complicated.
At a basic level, there is good evidence and a growing consensus that extended remote learning harmed students. Some state test results from 2021 help show the damage. In Ohio, researchers found that districts that stayed fully remote during the 2020-21 school year experienced declines up to three times greater than those of districts that mostly taught students in person.
More recently, the national test results capture both the initial academic declines and any recovery, and they offer some nuance. While there was a notable correlation between remote learning and declines in fourth-grade math, for example, there was little to no correlation in reading. Why the discrepancy? One explanation is that reading skills tend to be more influenced by parents and what happens at home, whereas math is more directly affected by what is taught in school.
So remote learning does not explain the whole story. What else does? In a sophisticated analysis of thousands of public school districts in 29 states, researchers at Harvard and Stanford Universities found that poverty played an even bigger role in academic declines during the pandemic.
‘The poverty rate is very predictive of how much you lost,’ Sean Reardon, an education professor at Stanford who helped lead the analysis, told me.
Comparing two California school districts, one wealthier and the other poorer, illustrates this point. Cupertino Union, a Silicon Valley school district where about 6 percent of students qualify for free or reduced lunch (a marker that researchers use to estimate poverty), spent nearly half of the 2020-21 school year remote. So did Merced City in the Central Valley, where nearly 80 percent of students are eligible for free or reduced lunch, according to the Harvard-Stanford analysis.
Yet despite spending roughly the same amount of time attending classes remotely, students in the wealthier Cupertino district actually gained ground in math, while students in poorer Merced City fell behind.
High vs. low performers
While the overall declines in student achievement were stark, the averages mask even deeper divergences between student groups. For example, Black and Hispanic students, who had started out behind white and Asian students in fourth-grade math, lost more ground than those groups during the pandemic.
Notably, the gap is also growing between the country’s highest-achieving students and low-performing students who struggle the most.
That gap — driven by declines among lower performers — was most clear for younger students and in reading. (Middle-school math declines were more significant across the board.)
In fourth grade, the average reading score on the national exam fell three points. But results for students in the top 90th percentile did not fall at all, while those for students in the bottom 10th percentile plunged six points, double the overall average.
In other words: The students who had the least ground to lose lost the most.
There may be a twofold explanation. Recent research from NWEA, a nonprofit academic assessment organization, found that students at the bottom of their classes both experienced sharper setbacks at the start of the pandemic and showed less improvement last school year.
I am sometimes asked: If the pandemic affected all students, how much does it matter? Isn’t everyone behind?
What the latest data affirmed is that while the pandemic affected all students, it did not affect all students equally. That was true with remote learning, and it is playing out now in recovery. The students who had the greatest needs coming into the pandemic have the steepest challenge — and will need the most help — in the future.” Read more at New York Times
SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC
“Eagles beat Packers: Philadelphia maintained the N.F.L.’s best record with a 40-33 win over the Packers late last night. Aaron Rodgers left the game with a rib injury.
No. 1 goes down: The Alabama men’s basketball team upset top-ranked North Carolina in four overtimes.” Read more at New York Times
WORLD CUP
Morocco’s Zakaria Aboukhlal scores against Belgium.Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters
“Shock: Morocco upset Belgium, leading to riots in Brussels. And Canada is out after losing to Croatia. Manager John Herdman’s ill-fated bravado before the match proved disastrous.
Powers draw even: Germany kept its tournament hopes alive with a 1-1 tie against Spain.
Taking stock: Do all these upsets make for a more exciting tournament?
Protest battle: Iran called for the U.S. to be expelled from the competitionover a social media post featuring an altered flag.
Photo collage: A V.I.P. entrance at Qatar’s showpiece stadium replaced a mural celebrating migrant workers.
Today: Cameroon is playing Serbia, and Brazil will face Switzerland this afternoon — though without its star, Neymar, who is injured. Here are the latest scores.” Read more at New York Times
Word of the Year
“Merriam today names ‘gaslighting’ — ‘a deliberate conspiracy to mislead’ — as 2022's Word of the Year.
Why it matters: The noun is emblematic of ‘this age of misinformation — of 'fake news, conspiracy theories, Twitter trolls and deepfakes,’ the dictionary folks say.
The backstory: ‘Its origins are colorful,’ Merriam-Webster tells us.
The term comes from ‘the title of a 1938 play and the movie based on that play, the plot of which involves a man attempting to make his wife believe that she is going insane.’
‘His mysterious activities in the attic cause the house's gas lights to dim, but he insists to his wife that the lights are not dimming and that she can't trust her own perceptions.’
Merriam-Webster also named eight ‘top lookups of 2022’:
in the Wordle epoch) ... raid ... and queen consort.
Honorable mention: endemic.” Read more at Axios