The Full Belmonte, 11/20/2023
Earth briefly passed a feared global warming milestone.
“What to know: Average global temperatures were more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial times for the first time on Friday, data shows.
What it means: The climate is moving into uncharted territory after months of record warmth. A longer-term breach of this benchmark could have severe consequences.
Last week: Unprecedented heat for mid-November roasted Brazil. On Friday, a woman died at a Taylor Swift concert during extreme temperatures.”
Read this story at Washington Post
“Former first lady Rosalynn Carter died yesterday at her home in Plains, Georgia. She was 96. Carter, who was sometimes called the Steel Magnolia, is remembered for a lifetime spent as a mental health advocate and humanitarian. Former president Jimmy Carter is 99 years old and has been in hospice care since February.
Branden Camp/AP
In a 1984 interview with NPR, Carter said, ‘I don't think I'm smarter than Jimmy Carter, but I love the political life.’ After their stint in the White House, she continued her work fighting mental health stigma through the Carter Center. Memorial services are scheduled to take place next week, WABE's Rahul Bali says.” [NPR]
Remembering Rosalynn Carter
Then-first lady Rosalynn Carter during a trip in Texas in 1978. Photo: Diana Walker/Getty Images
“Former first lady Rosalynn Carter, a global humanitarian and trailblazer for mental health, died at home on Sunday in Plains, Georgia, at 96 years old.
She was a powerful, hands-on figure in the career of her husband, former President Jimmy Carter, who at 99 is the longest-living president in history.
But she paved her own legacy by championing mental health and women's rights, and participating in policymaking, Axios' Sareen Habeshian and Emma Hurt write.
‘Rosalynn was my equal partner in everything I ever accomplished,’ the former president, who entered hospice care in February, said in a statement.
Zoom in: The longest-married American presidential couple tied the knot in 1946 in their small hometown of Plains after knowing each other almost their whole lives.
Jimmy Carter's mother, who was a nurse, helped deliver baby Rosalynn.
The couple returned to Plains after leaving the White House and remained based there ever since — in the same house they built in 1961.
The Carters at the Congressional Christmas Ball at the White House in 1978. Photo: Ira Schwarz/AP
The last word: Asked once how she would like to be remembered, Rosalynn Carter said: ‘I would like for people to think that I took advantage of the opportunities I had and did the best I could.’” [Axios]
“Israel and Hamas are inching toward a deal to release some of the roughly 240 hostages taken from Israel in the Oct. 7 attacks. Yesterday, aid workers successfully evacuated some 30 remaining premature babies from Gaza's Al-Shifa Hospital, which is currently controlled by Israel. U.N. representatives described Al-Shifa, Gaza's largest hospital, as a ‘death zone.’” [NPR]
Blast at another hospital, after 'terror tunnel' claims
Heavy rain across the Gaza Strip has been making shelters "unliveable", according to one UN agency. Credit: EPA
“Israeli tanks are moving in on another hospital, as the military continues its advance in Gaza. After what UN human rights chief Volker Turk called a ‘horrendous’ 48 hours in the territory, the Hamas-run health ministry said 12 people had been killed by an airstrike on the Indonesian hospital, north-east of Gaza City. It said 700 people were staying there. The hospital’s director told the BBC its post-operative care department had been hit. Israel has not commented on the incident but says it is attacking ‘terrorist infrastructure’ in the territory. On Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces released footage it said showed a ‘55m-long terror tunnel’ underneath Al-Shifa hospital. Israel says it ‘clearly proves that numerous buildings in the hospital's complex are used by Hamas as cover for terrorist activities’ - allegations Hamas and hospital staff have repeatedly denied.” [BBC]
© The Associated Press / Andrew Harnik | President Biden at the White House on Nov. 13.
Biden tackles age, hostage negotiations
“From birthday celebrations to high-pressure negotiations, President Bidenis teeing off a packed Thanksgiving week.
The president turns 81 today, a fact that’s sure to inspire mixed emotions among his supporters. Biden was already the oldest president ever on the day he took the oath of office in 2021. If he wins reelection and serves a full second term, he would exit office at the age of 86.
Biden’s allies are confronting voter anxiety — reflected in early polls — that the president could lose in an increasingly likely rematch next year against former President Trump. In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll of battleground states, 71 percent of respondents — including 54 percent of his own supporters — said Biden was ‘too old’ to be president. In contrast, 39 percent said the same about Trump, who is 77.
Politico reports there are deep concerns that the campaign’s largely hands-off approach to Biden’s age — and focus on his accomplishments instead — isn’t enough to assuage voters’ fears. Some donors are directly urging top campaign aides to go on offense, leaning even harder into Biden’s age as proof of his wisdom. They are hoping for more humor from “Grandpa Joe.”
‘I think everyone knows it’s an issue, and we have to address it,’ said Ron Klain, Biden’s former chief of staff, adding it’s important to ‘emphasize [that] it gives him more wisdom and experience, how he’s navigated this difficult problem in Ukraine.’
‘He’ll keep on doing the job, campaigning with vigor and demonstrating to the American people his energy level, which is quite robust,’ Klain said.
The White House has no plans to mark today’s occasion with a lavish party; Biden will celebrate privately with family in Nantucket later this week (The New York Times).
The Hill: The Biden campaign is ramping up its offensive against Trump, targeting the front-runner for the 2024 Republican nomination as a rematch between Trump and Biden appears increasingly likely.
NPR analysis: As Biden celebrates his birthday, candles on the cake are adding to a problem.” [The Hill]
UAW workers ratify contracts with Big Three automakers, securing record wage hikes
The vote was overwhelming in favor of the contract for workers at Ford and Stellantis but was closer for General Motors union workers. UAW chief said he was setting his sights on unionizing the U.S. auto industry, beyond the Big Three.
Read more at Washington Post
Shoppers push carts into a Costco warehouse on Aug. 4, 2023, in Thornton, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)
ECONOMY
Why Americans feel gloomy about the economy despite falling inflation and low unemployment
“Inflation has reached its lowest point in 2 1/2 years. The unemployment rate has stayed below 4% for the longest stretch since the 1960s. And the U.S. economy has repeatedly defied predictions of a coming recession. Yet according to a raft of polls and surveys, most Americans hold a glum view of the economy. Read more.
Why this matters:
Economists increasingly point to one factor in particular that lies behind the disconnect: The lingering financial and psychological effects of the worst bout of inflation in four decades.
Despite the steady cooling of inflation over the past year, many goods and services are still far pricier than they were just three years ago. The rate at which costs are increasing is slowing. But most prices are high and still rising.
The issue poses a challenge for President Joe Biden as he gears up for his reelection campaign. Polls consistently show that most Americans disapprove of his handling of the economy.” [AP News]
Politics
“Greg Abbott, Texas’ governor, endorsed Donald Trump at an event near the southern border. ‘We need a president who’s going to secure the border,’ Abbott said.” [New York Times]
“At a hearing today, Trump’s lawyers will challenge a gag order placed on him in his federal election case.” [New York Times]
“Today is Transgender Day of Remembrance — started in 1999 by Gwendolyn Ann Smith to honor the all-too-many people from the community whose lives were being cut short.
Here's a piece Axios' Ina Fried wrote to mark Transgender Awareness Week, which just concluded.” [Axios]
Thanksgiving weather
“Tens of millions of people across the US are at risk of severe storms this week that could impact Thanksgiving travel. One notable storm system is headed into the South after blowing through the Rockies over the weekend, leaving heavy mountain snowfall piled nearly a foot high in parts of Utah, Nevada and Colorado. The day with the most weather-related headaches for travelers is likely to be Tuesday, with a low-pressure system bringing rain and thunderstorms to the majority of the eastern half of the country. Several areas expecting rain include major airport cities — New York, Washington, Chicago and Atlanta. All could see delays and frustrations due to the wet forecast.” [CNN]
At Badwater Basin.
“Sudden life: Visitors flock to Death Valley for its heat and barren landscape. This fall, they’ve been drawn in by something else: a lake that appeared almost overnight.” [CNN]
Freeway fire
Crews at work on the I-10 underpass yesterday. Photo: Alex Gallardo/AP
“Commuters in Los Angeles are awaking to pleasant news today after a portion of Interstate 10 reopened ahead of schedule following a massive fire earlier this month. The vital transportation artery, which typically sees more than 300,000 daily drivers, is now flowing in all five lanes ahead of today's morning commute and before the Thanksgiving holiday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced. Officials previously said the roadway would open on Tuesday. Meanwhile, authorities have released a photo of a person of interest who was seen in the area when the fire started.” [CNN]
A far-right radical won Argentina’s presidency yesterday.
“Who? Javier Milei, a 53-year-old economist and an admirer of Donald Trump. He claimed nearly 56% of the vote in an upset over center-left Economy Minister Sergio Massa.
The bigger picture: It’s Argentina’s sharpest turn to the right in four decades of democracy. Milei vowed to shatter the system after an economic crisis in the country.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Far right's big win in Argentina
Javier Milei celebrates at his party headquarters in Buenos Aires. Photo: Luis Robayo/AFP via Getty Images
“Argentina, back in its familiar position of being a fiscal and economic disaster zone, yesterday elected a classic chaos agent — right-wing populist economist Javier Milei, who won handily, 56% to 44%.
Why it matters: Milei, 53, ran as an ultra-libertarian ‘anarcho-capitalist.’ But without much support in parliament, it's unclear how much change he can really effect, Axios chief financial correspondent Felix Salmon writes.
Data: FactSet. Chart: Axios Visuals
What happened: Argentina's torrid economic conditions — inflation in triple digits, recession looming, a drought hitting exports — paved the way for Milei's victory.
Milei ran on a platform of dollarizing the economy — effectively abolishing the local currency.
He wants to abolish not only the central bank (‘the worst garbage that exists on this Earth’) but also the health, education and environment ministries.
The big picture: Milei is part of a global hard-right rise.
1 fun thing: Milei's hairdo was described by The Wall Street Journal as looking ‘like a musk ox crossbred with Ozzy Osbourne.’” [Axios]
“The race for Argentina’s presidency was neck-and-neck, the polls suggested. But when it came down to it, a beleaguered electorate backed the change candidate in droves.
In overwhelmingly voting for Javier Milei yesterday, Argentines not only delivered a snub to Economy Minister Sergio Massa, holder of the incumbent Peronist party torch who oversaw the crisis that has left the public shouldering one of the world’s most punishing inflation rates.
They put their hopes in a libertarian radical and political novice whose solutions to the South American nation’s malaise are untested and may prove unworkable.
Milei’s policy proposals are as drastic as they are striking: ditching the peso for the US dollar; closing the central bank; taking an axe — or in Milei’s case, a chainsaw — to public spending; shunning Brazil and China, Argentina’s two biggest trading partners.
Yet the signal from a wearied public is unmistakable — anything is preferable to the current torture.
It’s a message we’ve heard before, from the UK’s decision to quit the European Union to Chile’s election of a student activist as its youngest-ever president, as voters shrugged off establishment warnings of disaster in favor of pursuing extreme paths, even at the risk of harming their own interests.
That kind of blow-it-all-up approach to democracy is worth bearing in mind as the world heads into the busiest electoral calendar in at least a decade next year, book-ended by votes in Taiwan in January and the US in November, with former President Donald Trump threatening to return to the White House.
Those elections take place with a bleak economic outlook, contributing to widespread voter volatility.
That means pricing in unexpected political outcomes — even if at face value they appear to make little sense.
For if Argentina shows us anything, it’s that the taste for electoral upheaval is undiminished.” — Alan Crawford [Bloomberg]
WATCH: Javier Milei speaks after winning Argentina’s presidency. Source: Bloomberg
“The seizure of a Japanese-chartered vessel in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen is raising fears that the Israel-Hamas war could lead to shipping disruptions in the region. A Houthi spokesperson said yesterday the group will continue to target Israeli ships until the military operation in Gaza ends, while Tehran denied any role in the attack. European natural gas prices jumped.” [Bloomberg]
“Israeli forces engaged in heavy fighting with Hamas in the northern Gaza Strip overnight as the US said it was optimistic about a deal to free hostages held by the militant group. Top foreign policy officials from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority are visiting Beijing today and tomorrow for talks on deescalating the conflict.” [Bloomberg]
A woman tries to salvage personal items from a home hit by an Israeli bombardment in Rafah yesterday. Photographer: Said Khatib/AFP/Getty Images
“US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived in Kyiv today pledging support for Ukraine’s battle against Russia ‘now and into the future.’ With fighting continuing to rage along the front line, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy dismissed the head of the military’s medical support service and called for a ‘fundamentally new’ level of care for wounded troops.” [Bloomberg]
“South Korea warned Pyongyang to halt a rocket launch it sees violating United Nations Security Council resolutions. Officials in Seoul believe the launch could help North Korea refine its target lists as it rolls out new missiles designed to deliver nuclear strikes in South Korea and Japan, which host the bulk of the US’s military personnel in the region.” [Bloomberg]
“Plans to cut Britain’s tax burden from a post-World War II high are set to be laid out by UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt in Wednesday’s Autumn Statement, a pivotal time for the struggling Conservatives before a general election expected next year. Hunt said yesterday he wants to ‘show there is a path to a lower-tax economy’ while also safeguarding progress in reducing inflation.” [Bloomberg]
“Taiwan’s presidential frontrunner named the island’s former envoy to the US as his running mate, a sign he aims to bolster ties with Washington if elected.” [Bloomberg]
“Elon Musk railed against ‘bogus’ media reports accusing him of antisemitism, issuing his strongest response yet after endorsing antisemitic content in a post on X that provoked outrage and alienated advertisers like Apple.” [Bloomberg]
“Shakira: The Colombian pop star has reached a deal with Spanish prosecutors to settle a case accusing her of tax fraud to the tune of €14.5m (£12.9m, $15.8m). Entertainment reporter Helen Bushby explains the background.” [BBC]
Starship launches from Boca Chica, Texas, yesterday. Photo: Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images
SpaceX's mega rocket Starship had a successful liftoff, but lost both the booster and the spacecraft in a pair of explosions minutes into yesterday's test flight.
Yesterday's demo lasted eight minutes — twice the length of the first test.
America is Big Mad
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
“Politicians, billionaires and average Americans are itching for a fight these days.
Tech giants are suggesting cage matches, presidential candidates are embracing new frontiers in the use of force, and Americans are increasingly OK with political violence, Axios' Stef Kight writes.
Last week was especially antagonistic in Congress:
Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) challenged Teamsters president Sean O'Brien to a brawl in the middle of a committee hearing, after reading tweets in which O'Brien had talked about wanting to fight. Mullin is now selling T-shirts that say: ‘ANYTIME, ANYPLACE.’
House Oversight chair James Comer (R-Ky.) told Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.): ‘You look like a Smurf.’
Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was accused of shoving Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) in the hallways.
It wasn't so long ago that Elon Musk challenged Mark Zuckerberg to a cage fight.
A match between two of the world's richest men was seriously discussed, with both billionaires coordinating with UFC president Dana White, the N.Y. Times reported.
Threats of violence have also been front and center in the presidential race:
Trump has called for shooting shoplifters, giving drug dealers the death penalty and executing human traffickers.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' campaign now sells ‘STONE COLD DEAD’ T-shirts — a reference to his promise to ‘authorize the use of deadly force against the cartels.’
Zoom out: The Republic is also angry.
Support for political violence has jumped, to nearly a quarter of Americans.
More than half of Americans told Pew Research Center they feel ‘angry’ always or often when they think about politics.
65% said they feel exhausted.” [Axios]
Indian enrollment boom
Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios
“International students flocked to the U.S. in record numbers last year, including a 35% increase in those coming from India, Axios' Sareen Habeshian writes.
Why it matters: Booming demand from India for American education is offsetting a decline in the number of students from China, which fell for a third straight year.
By the numbers: More than 1 million international students were studying in the U.S. during the 2022-2023 academic year.
That's a 12% increase over the previous year and the fastest growth rate in over four decades, according to a new Open Doors report.” [Axios]
America's aging homebuyers
Data: National Association of Realtors. Chart: Axios Visuals
“The U.S. housing market has shattered the stereotypical American dream: The dominant group of homebuyers is getting older.
As housing gets more expensive, the median homebuyer age has jumped 10 years — to 49 — in two decades, Axios' April Rubin writes from new National Association of Realtors data.
The average household income for homebuyers jumped to $107,000, up $20,000 from last year.
What's happening: Rising college costs, shaky job security and the burden of retirement savings ‘have made it more difficult for younger people to establish a foothold with their personal finances,’ BankRate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick says.” [Axios]
Altman to Microsoft
“Early this morning, Microsoft announced the hiring of ousted OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and former OpenAI president Greg Brockman to lead a new research unit.
Why it matters: It's a stunning twist after tech's most dramatic 60 hours in decades. Microsoft has been OpenAI's largest investor and partner and has used its products to form the core of its Copilot products, Axios' Ina Fried and Kia Kokalitcheva report.
‘We're extremely excited to share the news that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, together with colleagues, will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team,’ Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said in posts on X and LinkedIn.
Altman posted simply: ‘the mission continues.’
Nadella responded, saying he's ‘super excited’ to have Altman join as CEO of the new group: ‘We've learned a lot over the years about how to give founders and innovators space to build independent identities and cultures within Microsoft, including GitHub, Mojang Studios, and LinkedIn.’
Brockman later posted that they ‘are going to build something new & it will be incredible,’ adding that the initial team also includes Jakub Pachocki, Szymon Sidor, and Aleksander Madry. All three resigned Friday.
The intrigue: Rumors swirled all weekend as social media posts from Altman and media reports suggested his return might be imminent.
On Sunday afternoon, Altman posted a selfie (top of item)holding up an OpenAI ‘guest’ badge inside the office and wrote: ‘first and last time I ever wear one of these.’
Many took that as a sign of his imminent return. But it turned out to have a different meaning.
Incoming OpenAI interim CEO Emmett Shear at TwitchCon 2022 in San Diego. Photo: Robin L. Marshall/Getty Images
Hours before Microsoft's announcement, OpenAI's board hired Twitch co-founder Emmett Shear as its interim CEO.
Why he matters: Shear, who stepped down as CEO of Amazon-owned Twitch back in March, has vocally supported a ‘slowdown’ of work on advanced AI to ensure it's safe.
Catch up quick: On Friday afternoon, OpenAI announced that Altman would be leaving the company after its board concluded he hadn't been ‘consistently candid in his communications.’
Brockman resigned soon after, with several senior researchers leaving later that day.
CTO Mira Murati was appointed interim CEO on Friday. It's not clear what her status will be following Shear's appointment.
What to watch: Who else leaves OpenAI to join the renegade team at Microsoft — and who leaves to go elsewhere.
The turmoil has also stirred worry at the many startups that depend on OpenAI's products and services.
Shear said in a post about taking the interim job: ‘OpenAI employees are extremely impressive ... and mission-driven in the extreme. And it's clear that the process and communications around Sam's removal has been handled very badly, which has seriously damaged our trust.’
He said his plan for the next 30 days includes: ‘Hire an independent investigator to dig into the entire process leading up to this point and generate a full report.’” [Axios]
OpenAI Employees Threaten to Quit Unless Board Resigns
“More than 500 employees of OpenAI have threatened to resign from the company if the current board doesn’t resign and reinstate former CEO Sam Altman. OpenAI currently has about 770 workers.”
READ MORE at Wall Street Journal
How Osama Bin Laden's viral letter reopened a debate about a TikTok ban
“Calls for a national TikTok ban have resurged among lawmakers after videos on the social media app promoted Osama Bin Laden’s ‘Letter to America,’ a justification for the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S. The 2002 document, which circulated under the hashtag #lettertoamerica, condemned U.S. support for Israel and has resurfaced against the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas war. TikTok said that it had banned the hashtag. The letter was unearthed from among other documents from the 9/11 attacks on the website of the London-based Guardian newspaper. After the Guardian took down the letter, several young TikTok users began reading the letter aloud.” Read more at New York Times
Ron Klain to Airbnb
Ron Klain on "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert" in February. Photo: Gail Schulman/CBS via Getty Images
“Airbnb will announce today that Ron Klain — former White House chief of staff, and one of Washington's best-connected Democrats — will join the company as chief legal officer on Jan. 1.
Why it matters: It's a surprise twist for the storied career of Klain, who remains a confidant of President Biden, with a big behind-the-scenes voice in his re-election campaign.
The move shows recruiting momentum and continuing innovation for Airbnb, which now has 4 million hosts in nearly every country.
Klain, 62, will report to Airbnb co-founder and CEO Brian Chesky, who says in a forthcoming release: ‘Ron is both a big-picture strategic thinker and a highly skilled operator, and I'm thrilled he'll be a close advisor.’
What's happening: Klain will leave O'Melveny & Myers, which he rejoined as a litigation partner after leaving the White House earlier this year. Klain tells me he wasn't looking to leave the firm, which he loves — he heard about the opening because Airbnb is a client.
‘When I spent time with Brian and other senior folks at Airbnb, it was a 'can't say no' moment,’ he said.
Klain says he'll continue supporting Biden ‘on my own time and of my own accord,’ but will no longer do TV appearances for the campaign.
Behind the scenes: Klain tells me that when he went to San Francisco to interview with Chesky and others, he stayed in a guest bedroom in Chesky's home that he lists on Airbnb.
‘He's a fantastic host,’ Klain deadpanned.” [Axios]
NASA will take your name to space in a “Message in a Bottle.”
“Now’s your chance: The space agency will engrave names in microscopic writing on a dime-size chip to travel on a voyage to one of Jupiter’s moons next year.
The mission: To investigate whether the moon Europa is capable of supporting life — and leave a message for extraterrestrial life to someday find. Submit your name here.”
Read this story at Washington Post
SPORTS
“Sunday Night Football: The Denver Broncos extended their winning streak with a comeback to beat the Minnesota Vikings, 21-20.
Around the N.F.L.: The Detroit Lions beat the Chicago Bears and improved their record to 8-2. And the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy had a perfect quarterback rating in his victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Here are takeaways.
M.L.B.: The Phillies re-signed the pitcher Aaron Nola in a seven-year, $172 million contract, taking a top pitcher off the free-agent market early.
U.N.C.: The North Carolina field hockey team won its second straight national title, this one with a 23-year-old first-time head coach who played on the team last year.” [New York Times]
F1 exceeds Vegas expectations
Sparks fly behind Max Verstappen of the Netherlands on the Strip last night. Photo: Clive Mason/Formula 1 via Getty Images
“300,000+ spectators — including Brad Pitt, Rihanna and Shaq — descended on Sin City to watch last night's Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix, which returned to the city after more than 40 years.
The new track is one of the fastest in the sport, with top speeds hitting 215 mph and wraps around the Vegas Sphere, the L.A. Times notes.
The winner was Max Verstappen, the Belgian and Dutch three-time F1 world champion.
The Sphere during qualifying last night. Photo: Mike Blake/Reuters
Dates for next year's Las Vegas Grand Prix are already set: Nov. 21–23, 2024.” [Axios]
ARTS AND IDEAS
Travis Kelce and Jason Kelce. Wave Sports + Entertainment
“Helmets off, mics up: The N.F.L. often suppresses individuality — players wear helmets, there’s a strict uniform policy and extravagant celebrations risk a fine. But an influx of more tolerant coaches, and more business-conscious players, has fostered a surprising trend: the football player podcast.
On shows like Travis and Jason Kelce’s ‘New Heights’ and Von Miller’s ‘The Voncast,’ players have a direct line to fans — and a way build their brands. ‘I think it’s fun and guys will keep doing it as long as there’s a thirst from the audience,’ Jason Kelce said.” [New York Times]