The Full Belmonte, 11/16/22
Trump seeks White House again amid GOP losses, legal probes
By JILL COLVIN
“PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday launched his third campaign for the White House just one week after a disappointing midterm showing for Republicans, forcing the party to again decide whether to embrace a candidate whose refusal to accept defeat in 2020 sparked an insurrection and pushed American democracy to the brink.
‘In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States,’ Trump said before an audience of several hundred supporters in a chandeliered ballroom at his Mar-a-Lago club, where he stood flanked by American flags and banners bearing his ‘Make America Great Again’ slogan.
‘America’s comeback starts right now,’ he said, formally beginning the 2024 Republican primary.
Another campaign is a remarkable turn for any former president, much less one who made history as the first to be impeached twice and whose term ended with his supporters violently storming the Capitol in a deadly bid to halt the peaceful transition of power on Jan. 6, 2021.” Read more at AP News
NASA’s mightiest rocket lifts off 50 years after Apollo
By MARCIA DUNN
“CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — NASA’s new moon rocket blasted off on its debut flight with three test dummies aboard Wednesday, bringing the U.S. a big step closer to putting astronauts back on the lunar surface for the first time since the end of the Apollo program 50 years ago.
If all goes well during the three-week, make-or-break shakedown flight, the crew capsule will be propelled into a wide orbit around the moon and then return to Earth with a Pacific splashdown in December.
After years of delays and billions in cost overruns, the Space Launch System rocket thundered skyward, rising from Kennedy Space Center on 8.8 million pounds (4 million kilograms) of thrust and hitting 100 mph (160 kph) within seconds. The Orion capsule was perched on top and, less than two hours into the flight, busted out of Earth’s orbit toward the moon.
‘It’s a great day,’ said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson.” Read more at AP News
Poland says Russian-made missile fell in its east, killing 2
By VASILISA STEPANENKO
“PRZEWODOW, Poland (AP) — Poland said Wednesday that a Russian-made missile fell in the country’s east, killing two people, though U.S. President Joe Biden said it was ‘unlikely’ it was fired from Russia.
The blast, which Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy decried as ‘a very significant escalation,’ prompted Biden to call an emergency meeting of G-7 and NATO leaders. A deliberate, hostile attack on NATO member Poland could trigger a collective military response by the alliance.
But key questions around the circumstances of the missile launch — none larger than who fired it — remained amid the confusion caused by a blistering series of Russian airstrikes across the nearby border in Ukraine. Russia denied any involvement in the Poland blast.
Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one amid the crushing salvo against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure Tuesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.” Read more at AP News
Poland: Missile likely not ‘intentional attack’
Police officers search the site of an explosion near the village of Przewodow, Poland, today. Photo: Polish Police Department/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Breaking: Polish President Andrzej Duda said this morning the explosion near the country's border with Ukraine appears to be an ‘unfortunate accident,’ not an ‘intentional attack,’ Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath writes.
He added that the projectile that caused the blast and killed two people was ‘most likely’ Russian-made, but officials have ‘no proof at the moment that it was a missile fired by the Russian side.’
Duda said it was ‘very likely’ the explosion was caused by Ukrainian air defenses.
Ukraine previously denied it was to blame for the blast. Russia also denied responsibility.
The big picture: The explosion happened on the same day Russia launched one of its biggest barrages of strikes against Ukrainian cities since the beginning of the war.” Read more at Axios
Biden: ‘Unlikely’ missile that hit Poland fired from Russia
By SEUNG MIN KIM, ZEKE MILLER and MICHAEL BALSAMO
“NUSA DUA, Indonesia (AP) — President Joe Biden said Wednesday it was ‘unlikely’ that a missile that killed two in NATO-ally Poland was fired from Russia, but he pledged support for Poland’s investigation into what it had called a ‘Russian-made’ missile.
Biden spoke after he convened an ‘emergency’ meeting of the Group of Seven and NATO leaders in Indonesia Wednesday morning for consultations on the explosion that killed two people in the eastern part of Poland near the Ukraine border.
‘There is preliminary information that contests that,’ Biden told reporters when asked if the missile had been fired from Russia. ‘It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.’
Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile amid a crushing salvo against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure Tuesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.” Read more at AP News
Same-sex marriage faces Senate test with GOP votes uncertain
By MARY CLARE JALONICK
“WASHINGTON (AP) — Staring down the prospect of divided government in the next Congress, Senate Democrats are moving forward with legislation this week to protect same sex and interracial marriages. It’s a vote that’s ‘as personal as it gets,’ Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said.
Schumer is holding a test vote on the bill Wednesday, betting that at least 10 Republicans will vote with all 50 Democrats to move forward with the legislation to ensure that same-sex and interracial marriages are legally recognized nationwide. The bill has gained steady momentum since the Supreme Court’s June decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and the federal right to an abortion. An opinion at that time from Justice Clarence Thomas suggested that an earlier high court decision protecting same-sex marriage could also come under threat.
If the Senate votes to move forward with the legislation, a final vote could come as soon as this week, or by the end of the month, while Democrats still control the House. Republicans are on the verge of winning the House majority and would be unlikely to take up the issue next year.” Read more at AP News
Immigration
“A federal judge on Tuesday blocked Title 42 -- a controversial rule that has allowed US authorities to expel more than 1 million migrants who crossed the US-Mexico border. This leaves the Biden administration without one of the key tools it put in place to address the thousands of migrants arriving at the border on a daily basis and could restore access to asylum for arriving migrants. While the rule was drafted by the Trump administration during the Covid-19 pandemic, the Biden administration has relied heavily on it to manage the increase of migrants at the border. The administration has requested a stay on the ruling for five weeks, according to a court filing.” Read more at CNN
Cold weather
“If you haven't already, you may want to pull out your winter coats and sweaters. The US has plunged into an early winter this week with an arctic chill in the air for millions across the nation. A low-pressure system across the Southwest is currently sweeping across the Central Plains, bringing with it rain and snow showers. It is the first notable winter weather event of the season for most in the region, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast are currently forecast to see a cold rain, as temperatures are expected to remain just above freezing. More than 225 million people across the Lower 48 states will experience temperatures at or below freezing this week, which is about 70 percent of the US population.” Read more at CNN
Judge overturns Georgia 'heartbeat' law banning most abortions
“A judge overturned Georgia’s ban on abortion starting around six weeks into a pregnancy, ruling Tuesday that it violated the U.S. Constitution and U.S. Supreme Court precedent when it was enacted three years ago and was therefore void. Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney wrote that according to precedent, a law that was unconstitutional when it was passed remains unconstitutional. McBurney's ruling took effect immediately statewide. The ruling would not prevent the state legislature from passing a similar or even more restrictive ban under the new constitutional framework of Dobbs v. Jackson, the ruling earlier this year that overturned the constitutional right to an abortion.” Read more at USA Today
Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney overturned Georgia’s ban on abortion starting around six weeks into a pregnancy, ruling Tuesday that it violated the U.S. Constitution and U.S. Supreme Court precedent when it was enacted and was therefore void.Ben Gray, AP
The World Cup will bring 2 million visitors and an epic culture clash to Qatar.
“The multibillion-dollar extravaganza, which begins Nov. 20, will be the first FIFA World Cup in the Middle East, the first in a conservative Muslim country and the first hosted in and around a single city, Doha. Qatar has been dogged by controversy around the event, first over allegations that it had secured the win by bribing FIFA executives, which both the country and FIFA denied, and about its ban on homosexuality. Alcohol will be allowed in designated areas outside the stadiums, but not in the stands or concourses. The $64,000 question—an amount significantly lower than the $155 billion FIFA said was bet globally on the World Cup in 2018—is whether Americans will wager on soccer. Sports betting is operational in 31 states and Washington, D.C., according to the American Gaming Association.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Walmart Agrees to Pay $3.1 Billion to Settle Opioid Lawsuits
The money would help pay for addiction treatment and drug education programs in communities across the United States.
By Jan Hoffman
Nov. 15, 2022
“Walmart, the largest retailer in the United States, has agreed to pay $3.1 billion to resolve thousands of lawsuits over its pharmacies’ roles in the opioid crisis, the company and lawyers for states, local governments and tribes announced Tuesday.
The agreement follows tentative deals announced this month by CVS and Walgreens, which are still being negotiated. If finalized, the total amount from the three giant pharmacy retailers would reach about $13.1 billion, including $400 million for Native American tribes.
The tribes would be paid $89 million just from the Walmart deal, Steve Skikos, a lawyer for the tribes, said.
The money from this and earlier settlements with pharmaceutical companies is expected to go toward drug treatment and education programs, to help communities combat a continuing addiction wave, now largely fueled by illegal fentanyl.” Read more at New York Times
Musk issues ultimatum to staff: Commit to ‘hardcore’ Twitter or take severance
It comes as Musk’s first major feature, Twitter Blue Verified, was halted while the company probes issues that arose from its launch
“SAN FRANCISCO — Elon Musk issued an ultimatum to Twitter employees Wednesday morning: Commit to a new ‘hardcore’ Twitter or leave the company with severance pay.
Employees were told they had to a sign a pledge to stay on with the company. ‘If you are sure that you want to be part of the new Twitter, please click yes on the link below,’ read the email to all staff, which linked to an online form.
Anyone who did not sign the pledge by 5 p.m. Eastern time Thursday was told they would receive three months of severance pay, the message said.” Read more at Washington Post
Israel deploys remote-controlled robotic guns in West Bank
By SAM McNEIL
“AL-AROUB REFUGEE CAMP, West Bank (AP) — In two volatile spots in the occupied West Bank, Israel has installed robotic weapons that can fire tear gas, stun grenades and sponge-tipped bullets at Palestinian protesters.
The weapons, perched over a crowded Palestinian refugee camp and in a flashpoint West Bank city, use artificial intelligence to track targets. Israel says the technology saves lives — both Israeli and Palestinian. But critics see another step toward a dystopian reality in which Israel fine-tunes its open-ended occupation of the Palestinians while keeping its soldiers out of harm’s way.
The new weapon comes at a time of heightened tensions in the occupied West Bank, where unrest has risen sharply during what has been the deadliest year since 2006. The victory by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hard-line alliance, which includes an extreme right-wing party with close ties to the settler movement, has raised concerns of more violence.” Read more at AP News
“Xi signaled a new tolerance for living with Covid-19 at the G-20 summit. He took part in more events without a mask, shook hands with Biden, and held face-to-face talks with numerous leaders. The Chinese leader and his wife also attended a gala dinner maskless and mingled with other guests. It was a stark contrast from his trip to Central Asia just two months ago, where he minimized mask-less activities and avoided handshakes and big gatherings.” Read more at Bloomberg
Xi and his wife Peng Liyuan at the welcoming dinner. Photographer: Willy Kurniawan/Getty Images
November 16, 2022
By German Lopez
Good morning. A split Congress could lead to government shutdowns and economic turmoil.
The CapitolAl Drago for The New York Times
Federal dysfunction
“Republicans are likely to secure a slim majority in the House. What does that mean for Congress? Most likely a return to the gridlock and brinkmanship that have defined a divided federal government in recent years.
A split between a Republican-controlled House and a Democratic-run Senate almost certainly means neither party will have the votes to enact major legislation. Democrats will probably be forced to set aside remaining items on their agenda, such as abortion rights protections and an expansion of tax credits for families with children.
Republicans are positioned to trot out an old strategy: When a Democrat has been in the White House over the past few decades, congressional Republicans have embraced calls for reducing government spending, arguing that the debt and deficits were out of control. In the 2010s, Republicans used these threats to block spending bills and make it harder for Barack Obama to carry out his presidential agenda — at times risking government shutdowns and economic calamity.
It is a political play. When Donald Trump was in the White House, Republican lawmakers approved budgets and tax measures that raised the debt and deficits to new highs.
But the approach is nonetheless poised for a comeback once House Republicans can use the threat of shutdowns and economic consequences to restrain President Biden. Trump, who announced his run for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination last night, has pushed the party’s lawmakers to use these tactics to get concessions from Democrats.
Today’s newsletter will break down what could be one of the biggest impacts of a Republican-held House: the potential fights over government spending, and the crises they may bring.
Representative Kevin McCarthy, the minority leader.Al Drago for The New York Times
More showdowns
One of Congress’s main responsibilities is to allocate funding for the federal government’s services and programs, such as Social Security, the military and scientific research. Because the government usually spends more than it takes in, Congress also has to increase the cap set by lawmakers limiting the federal government’s ability to borrow money.
Both chambers of Congress have to approve funding allocations and debt limit increases. Representative Kevin McCarthy, who won his party’s support yesterday to become the next House speaker, has suggested his caucus may be unwilling to do so: ‘We’ll provide you more money, but you got to change your current behavior,’ he said. ‘We’re not just going to keep lifting your credit card limit, right?’
If Congress doesn’t approve spending bills, it can force the government to shut down, as it did in 2013 and twice in 2018. During a shutdown, some parts of government stop working at full capacity, such as national parks and environmental or food inspections. (Others, like Medicare and the military, largely continue running.) A shutdown not only disrupts services that many Americans rely on but also means hundreds of thousands of government workers in the affected agencies go unpaid.
But the bigger threat is if Republicans refuse to raise the debt limit, which the federal government could hit early next year. The details can get wonky quickly, but here’s a brief explanation: When the government borrows money, it issues U.S. Treasuries. Because the U.S. government always pays its debts, these Treasuries are purchased around the world with the expectation that they are essentially risk-free investments. They are seen as so risk-free, in fact, that much of the global financial system is built on them.
But if the U.S. government hits its debt limit, it no longer has legal authorization to keep up with debt payments and could be forced to default. That would destroy the trust underpinning the value of Treasuries, causing the once risk-free investment to collapse and taking much of the financial system with it.
Under Obama, Republican lawmakers repeatedly invoked the threat of the debt limit to push for government spending cuts. And they appear ready to do the same under Biden.
Limited votes
Democrats might try to pre-empt these crises this year, before Republicans would take control of the House in January, by passing spending bills or increasing the debt limit.
Even without Democratic action, another factor could constrain Republicans: their razor-thin majority. More moderate Republicans in swing districts, which the House majority relies on, might not want to take on risky fights that could shut down the government or cause economic chaos.
At the same time, McCarthy might not have the support needed within his party to pass spending bills. The lack of votes could force him to rely on Democrats to get bills through the House. But that idea is unpopular with McCarthy’s most conservative members, who do not want to compromise with Democrats on many issues.
How that dynamic plays out will decide whether Congress can function — or if a divided government will spawn more federal dysfunction and crises.
More on the midterms
McCarthy won the nomination for House speaker, but defectors could make it hard for him to secure the job when the new Congress starts.
Senator Rick Scott of Florida is challenging Mitch McConnell for the top leadership position.
A big lesson of the 2022 midterms: Voters who trust elections are more likely to vote.” Read more at New York Times
Priciest turkey dinner in 36 years
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
“A Thanksgiving meal with all the trimmings is expected to cost 20% more than last year — the most expensive dinner since the American Farm Bureau started the annual survey in 1986.
Why it matters: Nearly every ingredient in the classic Thanksgiving feast is more expensive. Blame inflation, supply-chain snags and avian flu, Axios' Kelly Tyko writes.
In data out this morning, the farm bureau says the average cost of this year’s holiday meal for 10 is $64.05 — up from last year's $53.31.
A 16-pound turkey costs about $28.96 — almost $5, or 21%, more than the average cost a year ago.
Only one item — a 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries — had a price drop. It's $2.57 — down 14% from last year.” Read more at Axios
"Yellowstone" win
Kevin Costner in "Yellowstone." Photo: Paramount Network via AP
“Kevin Costner's Paramount epic "Yellowstone" reached 12.1 million viewers for the opening night of its fifth season on Sunday — the most popular scripted series episode of the new TV season.
Why it matters: That it was a cable network series — instead of on a broadcast network — makes the achievement even more impressive, AP's David Bauder writes.
The total viewership involved a little trickery: The show simultaneously aired on Viacom networks CMT, TV Land and Pop, and there were some same-day reruns.
Even with that, 9.4 million viewers saw the premiere episode on Paramount alone.
Between the lines: "Yellowstone" appeals to an older audience more used to watching TV in a traditional way, said Josef Adalian, West Coast editor of New York magazine's Vulture.
Red-blue divide: The show is overwhelmingly popular in red states.
States with Republican governors — topped by Texas — watch "Yellowstone" three times as much as states with Democratic governors, according to Philo, a live TV streaming service.” Read more at Axios
Michelle Obama opens tour for new book, ‘The Light We Carry’
By DARLENE SUPERVILLE
“WASHINGTON (AP) — Michelle Obama says it helps to focus on what you can control when you feel out of control.
Among the things she could control during the death and isolation of the pandemic, the racial unrest and threats to democracy were her spools of yarn and her knitting needles.
She labels such thinking the ‘power of small,’ and she writes in her new book, ‘The Light We Carry: Overcoming in Uncertain Times,’ that by focusing on a small task like knitting she was able to get through the worry, anxiety and stress of the past few unsettling years.
‘The interesting thing about knitting and using your hands and making something is that it is meditative,’ the former first lady said Tuesday night at the Warner Theater in Washington, where she kicked off a monthlong, six-city publicity tour to promote the book.” Read more at AP News
Beyoncé ties Grammy record after leading nominations with 9
By JONATHAN LANDRUM Jr.
“LOS ANGELES (AP) — Beyoncé has propelled herself into the highest Grammy echelon: The star singer claimed a leading nine nominations Tuesday, making her tied — with her husband Jay-Z — as the most nominated music act in the history of the awards show.
Beyoncé’s ‘Break My Soul’ reeled in record and song of the year nominations, while ‘Renaissance’ — which ventured into the world of dancehall music — netted an album of the year nod. With Jay-Z also earning five nods this year, each spouse now holds the record for the most-ever Grammy nominations at 88 apiece.
Kendrick Lamar came away with the second-most nominations, with eight. Adele and Brandi Carlile both received seven nods. Harry Styles, Mary J. Blige, Future, DJ Khaled, The-Dream and mastering engineer Randy Merrill each picked up six.
Nearly half of this year’s leading nominees — announced by the likes of Olivia Rodrigo, John Legend, Machine Gun Kelly and Smokey Robinson —are women and more than half are people of color, according to the recording academy. The ceremony will be held Feb. 5 in Los Angeles.” Read more at AP News
“Lives Lived: For 110 years, the top editor of Good Housekeeping magazine had always been a man — until Ellen Levine got the job. She died at 79.” Read more at New York Times