The Full Belmonte, 11/15/2023
Supporters of Israel gather Tuesday on the National Mall in Washington, DC.
DC march
“Thousands of Jews and allies of the Jewish community gathered Tuesday at the ‘March for Israel’ rally in Washington, DC. The march is believed to be the largest pro-Israel gathering in the US since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. The demonstrators denounced antisemitism and many speakers expressed sympathy for innocent Palestinians suffering during the conflict. ‘The simple human truth is that you don't have to choose. You can abhor the suffering of Palestinian families and the suffering of Israeli families like mine,’ said Alana Zeitchik, adding six members of her family remain held hostage. Also on Tuesday, President Joe Biden said a deal to free some 200 hostages is ‘going to happen’ as officials say they are nearing an agreement.” [CNN]
Israel
“UN trucks are expected to bring fuel into Gaza today, marking the first time that Israel has allowed fuel into the enclave since the October 7 Hamas attacks. Israeli officials have accused Hamas of diverting fuel intended for medical facilities and using hospital basements as command centers — an allegation the militant group denies. Meanwhile, Israel says its forces are carrying out a ‘precise and targeted operation’ at the Al-Shifa Hospital, the largest in the Gaza Strip. Hundreds of staff and patients are inside Al-Shifa, according to reports, along with several thousand people who sought shelter from Israel's offensive.”
Government shutdown
Speaker Mike JohnsonKenny Holston/The New York Times
‘The House passed a stopgap bill Tuesday to keep the government open, putting Congress on a path to avert a shutdown and setting the stage for a broader funding fight in the new year. Government funding is set to expire on Friday and the Senate will next need to approve the measure. President Biden is prepared to sign the bill if it is passed by the Senate, a White House official said. The bill would extend funding until January 19 for priorities including military construction, veterans' affairs, transportation, housing and the Energy Department. The rest of the government would be funded until February 2. Notably, the bill does not include additional aid for Israel or Ukraine.’ [CNN]
Biden and Xi are meeting to get the US-China relationship back on better footing
“Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping are in California for the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum and will hold one-on-one talks at Filoli Estate, a country house about 25 miles south of San Francisco, three senior administration officials said. The two leaders last spoke a year ago. Since then, already fraught ties between the two superpowers have been further strained. Read more.
Why this matters
Both men are seeking to show the world that they are not locked in a winner-take-all faceoff with global implications, despite being economic competitors. Their relationship has been increasingly defined by differences over export controls, Taiwan and the conflicts in the Middle East and Europe.
Biden is expected to let Xi know that he would like China to use its sway over Iran to make clear that Tehran or its proxies should not take action that could lead to expansion of the Israel-Hamas war. The Biden administration also sees the Chinese, a big buyer of Iranian oil, as having considerable leverage with Iran, which is a major backer of Hamas.
Xi, meanwhile, is looking for assurances from Biden that the U.S. will not support Taiwan independence, start a new cold war or suppress China’s economic growth. He’s also keen to show the U.S. that China is still a good place to invest.” [AP News]
Michigan judge says Donald Trump can stay on primary ballot
“The ruling is a blow to the effort to stop the former president’s candidacy with a Civil War-era Constitutional clause. This is the second time in a week that a state court declined to remove Trump from a primary ballot. Read more.
Why this matters
Judge James Redford rejected arguments that Trump’s role in the Capitol riot meant the court had to declare him ineligible under the insurrection provision of the 14th Amendment.
The judge added that it should be up to Congress to decide whether Trump is disqualified under the section of the U.S. Constitution that bars from office a person who ‘engaged in insurrection.’ Free Speech For People, a liberal group that has brought 14th Amendment cases in a number of states, said it will immediately appeal the ruling.
The two-sentence clause in the 14th Amendment has been used only a handful of times since the years after the Civil War. It’s likely that one of the active cases eventually will be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, which has never ruled on the insurrection clause.” [AP News]
Capitol Hill's ugly day
Screenshots: MSNBC
“Tensions on Capitol Hill spilled over today into an alleged altercation in the House and a near-fistfight at a Senate hearing, Axios' Juliegrace Brufke writes.
Why it matters: The incidents — which stunned Congress — weren't driven by protesters or tourists. They involved a former House speaker and a U.S. senator.
What's happening: In the House, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) accused former Speaker Kevin McCarthy of elbowing him in the back.
Burchett, who voted to oust McCarthy, called the California Republican ‘a bully.’
NPR reporter Claudia Grisales said she witnessed the scuffle during an interview with Burchett.
Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) challenged Teamsters President Sean O'Brien to a fight during a hearing on labor unions.
Mullin held up printed tweets about him by O'Brien, a witness at the hearing, that said: ‘You know where to find me. Anyplace, Anytime cowboy.’
‘Sir, this is a time. This is a place,’ Mullin said from the podium where lawmakers sit.
The other side: McCarthy denied that he elbowed Burchett despite multiple witnesses confirming the spat: ‘If I would hit somebody, they would know I hit them.’
At the hearing, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who chairs the committee, attempted to rein them in. ‘You're a United States senator. Sit down. We're not here to talk about physical abuse,’ he said.
Between the lines: Congress is racing to avert a government shutdown before a Friday deadline.” [Axios]
Ohio bus crash
“A charter bus carrying students to a band performance was involved in a fatal crash Tuesday on Interstate 70 in central Ohio. Six people were killed, including three teenage students, two parent chaperones and a teacher in an SUV, officials said. The students who died were ‘bright lights full of life who lost their lives way too young,’ Derek Varansky, the superintendent of the Tuscarawas Valley Local School District, told those gathered for a Tuesday night vigil. According to preliminary reports, the chain-reaction crash involved the bus, two commercial vehicles and two passenger vehicles. The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating the tragedy.” [CNN]
She had 'a baby dying inside' her. Her Missouri doctors could do nothing
“At 17 weeks and 5 days pregnant, Missouri resident Mylissa Farmer's water broke, putting her life in danger. Her baby's chances of survival were zero, doctors said. They recommended terminating the pregnancy. But after Missouri banned abortions, that wasn't an option. A year ago, the hospital could have offered a chance for the couple to say goodbye and hold their daughter, even though they knew she wouldn't survive outside the womb. Instead, Farmer and her boyfriend were forced to make a series of trips across three states and countless phone calls.” Read more at USA Today
How Trump could stop most abortions
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
“The next Republican president could effectively ban most abortions through a simple policy change at the Justice Department, experts and advocates on both sides of the abortion debate tell Axios' Caitlin Owens.
Why it matters: Republicans disagree about whether to pursue a national abortion ban, which would face long odds in Congress. But a GOP president may be able to unilaterally curb access to medication abortion across the country using an obscure 19th-century law.
At issue is the meaning of the 1873 Comstock Act, which banned the mailing of ‘obscene’ material like pornography, as well as abortion drugs and contraception. While the law has been cut down over the years, the abortion provision remained — but was ignored while Roe v. Wade was in place.
Medication abortion — which usually involves the use of two drugs, mifepristone and misoprostol, in the first 10 weeks of pregnancy — accounts for more than half of abortions in the U.S.
The Heritage Foundation, which has proposed detailed policies for a potential GOP administration, argues that Comstock ‘unambiguously prohibits mailing abortion drugs’ and says the next administration should ‘enforce federal law against providers and distributors of [abortion] pills.’
The Biden administration disagrees with this interpretation. A Justice Department memo issued last year contends that the law doesn't prohibit mailing abortion drugs when the sender expects them to be used lawfully.
A new president could easily change that interpretation, experts say: The administration could not just restrict patients from receiving pills at home, but also stop pharmacies and health care providers from getting shipments.
‘If Trump were elected,’ said Lawrence Gostin, a Georgetown Law professor who supports abortion rights, ‘not only would I not be surprised, but I would expect the administration to direct DOJ to overturn its guidance on the Comstock Act, and rule that shipping mifepristone through the U.S. Postal Service is a violation of that statute.’
The Trump campaign didn't respond to a request for comment on its thinking about the Comstock Act.
The other side: Abortion rights advocates argue that interpreting Comstock so literally is ignoring its context and legal precedent.
They would almost certainly sue to block a DOJ policy change.
‘It's tailor-made for a Supreme Court that considers itself textualist,’ said Mary Ziegler, a UC Davis law professor and legal historian.” [Axios]
Biden bets big on early ads
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) greets President Biden as he arrives in San Francisco yesterday to host the APEC summit. Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
“President Biden's re-election team has spent more than $50 million on TV and digital ads in swing states this year — and next to nothing on local organizers to begin reaching voters in person, Axios' Alex Thompson and Erin Doherty report.
Why it matters: The ad-heavy strategy breaks from President Obama's 2012 re-election. Obama invested millions in an army of organizers in swing states to contact voters up to 18 months before the election.
What's happening: Biden's team is focused on the idea that Americans are online and on their phones more than ever — and that meeting people there is just as important as meeting them on their doorstep.
The campaign believes that a ground game can be established next year and be as effective as Obama's.
Biden campaign spokesperson Seth Schuster said: ‘[W]e are building a campaign to win next November — not past elections.’
By the numbers: By about this time during the 2012 election cycle, Obama had nearly nine times as many people on his campaign's payroll as the 38 workers Biden reported in the third quarter of this year.
Biden's team had spent $39 million on TV as of Nov. 2, according to AdImpact, and more than $10 million on Facebook and Google ads, per Bully Pulpit Interactive.
Between the lines: Obama campaign veterans say organizing local teams was a key part of Obama's political identity in a way that it isn't for Biden. Some are skeptical that Biden could mobilize a similarly large crew of low-paid field organizers.
Biden's strategy is being overseen by White House deputy chief of staff Jen O'Malley Dillon, who also oversaw Obama's field program in 2012 as a deputy campaign manager.
The big picture: Biden's strategy reflects a larger debate among political consultants about whether sprawling field programs are worth the cost.
Biden won the 2020 Democratic primary with much smaller grassroots operations than Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
What to watch: To reach voters digitally, Biden is launching pilot initiatives for content distribution and ‘micro-influencer programs’ in Arizona and Wisconsin.
The campaign says it's hiring two dozen staffers for the programs, focusing on Black and young voters in Wisconsin, and Latino and women voters in Arizona.” [Axios]
Scientists have discovered what may be the first “vampire” virus.
The MiniFlayer latches onto the MindFlayer to infect cells and make copies of itself. (Courtesy of Tagide deCarvalho/University of Maryland, Baltimore County)
“What you’re looking at: A virus with another, smaller virus latched onto its ‘neck.’ It appears to be a clever workaround for viruses that have lost the ability to reproduce.
The discovery: The joined microbes were found in a clump of dirt in Maryland, a recent study said. Scientists said they saw ‘bite marks’ where the viruses were attached.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Billion-dollar disasters soar
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios
“This chart shows the rising frequency of inflation-adjusted billion-dollar disasters in the U.S.:
There was an average of one every four months in the 1980s.
There's an average of one every three weeks now, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
Crucial context: This results from climate change + population growth, Axios extreme-weather expert Andrew Freedman notes.” [Axios]
Inflation fever breaking
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Axios Visuals
“October's Consumer Price Index showed further progress on inflation after a brutal year (above), Axios' Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin write.
‘The inflation fever has broken in the United States,’ Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, wrote in a note.” [Axios]
Thanksgiving prices fall from record high
Graphic: American Farm Bureau Federation
“The cost of Thanksgiving dinner is falling after years of rising prices and a record high last year.
The American Farm Bureau Federation's 38th annual Thanksgiving survey, out this morning, shows that lower turkey prices are making the holiday meal more affordable, Axios' Kelly Tyko reports.
Why it matters: The findings are another sign that inflation is cooling.
By the numbers: The average meal with turkey and trimmings will cost 4.5% less than last year's record.
The survey found the average cost of this year's holiday meal for 10 people was $61.17, down from $64.05 in 2022 — but still 25% higher than in 2019, before the pandemic.” [Axios]
“The White House is becoming increasingly frustrated with Israel’s conduct in the war against Hamas as the civilian death toll in Gaza mounts and the administration’s calls go unheeded, widening a rift between the close allies. As Courtney McBride, Ben Bartenstein and Peter Martin report, US officials are having what they describe as more difficult conversations with their Israeli counterparts, only to have Israel ignore them.” [Bloomberg]
Patients at the al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City on Nov. 10. Photographer: Getty Images
“The UK’s policy to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda is unlawful, the nation’s highest court ruled, leaving in tatters Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s flagship plan to stem cross-channel arrivals in small boats. The ruling came hours after an excoriating letter from Suella Braverman, the home secretary dismissed on Monday, that underscored the fury facing Sunak among right-wing Conservatives.” [Bloomberg]
“Justin Trudeau is facing calls to quit as Canada’s prime minister, even from stalwarts in his own political party, as voter anger about housing and inflation grows and opinion polls show sagging support. Trudeau may not have to face voters until 2025, but that’s enough time for him to resign or be forced out of the leadership of the Liberal Party by an increasingly restless caucus.” [Bloomberg]
“Germany’s top court struck down a key element of the government’s plans to address climate change and transform the economy, dealing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition a major setback that throws its budget policy into disarray. The Federal Constitutional Court ruled that the shifting of €60 billion ($65 billion) earmarked to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic into an off-budget fund violated German constitutional law.” [Bloomberg]
“Poland is expected to access some suspended European Union financing by the end of the year, as opposition leader Donald Tusk prepares to take over as prime minister. Jorge Valero and Natalia Ojewska report that the European Commission plans to sign off on a request by Poland’s nationalist government to tap a portion of around €2.8 billion in aid earmarked to wean EU member states off Russian energy.” [Bloomberg]
“Taiwan’s opposition parties have agreed to run a joint campaign in January’s election, paving the way for a radical shakeup of the race.” [Bloomberg]
“North Korea tested new engines for intermediate-range ballistic missiles, a move that could help Pyongyang deliver quick strikes on US bases in places such as Guam.” [Bloomberg]
“Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva backed Argentina’s Sergio Massa ahead of Sunday’s presidential election, the latest leader taking a side in a contest that has highlighted Latin America’s deepening ideological divisions.” [Bloomberg]
“New Zealand is battling foreign voter interference—but not for the contest you might expect. The nation delayed announcing the winner of its annual Bird of the Year competition on Sunday after HBO Last Week Tonight talk show host John Oliver discovered a loophole in the contest rules that allowed anybody with a valid email address to participate and proceeded to launch a humorous campaign encouraging people around the world to vote for his favorite candidate: the puteketeke, a black-and-white water bird. His campaign included a sign in Wellington for the ‘Lord of the Wings’; billboards and banners across Japan, the United Kingdom, India, and Brazil; and an oversized bird costume. ‘After all, this is what democracy is all about: America interfering in foreign elections,’ Oliver said. And it looks like Oliver’s efforts paid off, with the puteketeke winning the contest on Tuesday.” [Foreign Policy]
SPORTS
“Soccer: Emma Hayes, a multi-championship-winning coach in the English Women’s Super League, will become the head coach of the U.S. women’s national soccer team.
N.B.A.: The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Golden State Warriors, 104-101. The Warriors’ forward Draymond Green was ejected from the game after putting the Timberwolves’ Rudy Gobert in a chokehold.
Golf: Rory McIlroy resigned from the PGA Tour’s board, five months after the tour’s deal with the Saudi sovereign wealth fund.” [New York Times]
College football's $76 million firing
Data: AP. Chart: Axios Visuals
“Texas A&M's firing of Jimbo Fisher has put renewed attention on just how much college football coaches make — even if it's to leave a program, Axios' Donica Phifer writes.
Why it matters: Fisher's buyout is more than triple the next-highest total for college football coaches (charted above).
Fisher earned over $9 million a year as Texas A&M's head coach and will net around $76 million in buyout money.” [Axios]
“Lives Lived: Maj. Gen. Roland Lajoie helped coordinate U.S.-Soviet relations in the last decade of the Cold War, then oversaw the destruction of nuclear weapons from former Soviet republics. He died at 87.” [New York Times]