The Full Belmonte, 11/10/2023
News Alert: Joe Manchin won’t run for reelection
Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia will not run for reelection, the moderate Democrat announced on social media Thursday.
‘I will not be running for reelection to the United States Senate but what I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together,’ Manchin said in a message posted on social media.”
Read More at CNN
Suspicious letters
“Federal law enforcement officials are investigating reports of suspicious letters sent to public officials, a Justice Department spokesperson said Thursday. Public officials in California, Georgia, Nevada, Oregon, Texas and Washington state have reported receiving suspicious mail, with some suspected to contain fentanyl. Most of the letters appear to have targeted election offices. So far, more than a dozen letters have been reported and investigators are treating all of them as connected for now, officials said. The reports come against a backdrop of a tense political climate where election officials frequently face threats, harassment and disruptions around voting.” [CNN]
Paul Pelosi attack suspect’s trial begins in San Francisco
“The jury heard opening statements today in the federal trial of a man accused of breaking into former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s home last year seeking to kidnap her, and bludgeoning her husband with a hammer.
Prosecutors say David DePape assaulted then-82-year-old Paul Pelosi at the couple’s San Francisco home in the early hours of Oct. 28, 2022.
During the trial, the jury will be shown the bodycam video from police who responded that night, appearing to show the door to the residence opening, followed by DePape swinging the hammer at Paul Pelosi.
DePape had broken into the home and was shouting, ‘Where is Nancy, where is Nancy?’ according to court records. After his arrest, DePape told police he’d wanted to take Nancy Pelosi hostage, the federal complaint alleged.
DePape has pleaded not guilty to attempted kidnapping of a federal official and assault on the immediate family member of a federal official. Paul Pelosi is expected to testify next week.” [NBC News]
“Jill Stein, the two-time Green Party presidential nominee, is running again in 2024. She could pull voters from Biden.” [New York Times]
“The Biden administration picked Greenbelt, Md., a Washington suburb, to be the site of the F.B.I.’s new headquarters. The F.B.I. director criticized the selection process as flawed.” [New York Times]
Jewish Dems rally around Biden
President Biden speaks to United Auto Workers today in Belvidere, Ill. Photo: Evan Vucci/AP
“Jewish Democrats on Capitol Hill and in the Biden administration are rallying around the president for his support of Israel, Axios' Alex Thompson writes.
Why it matters: The Israel-Hamas war has highlighted Democratic divisions but also prompted an outpouring of support for the president from Jewish politicians and leaders across the country — including some Republicans.
What they're saying: Biden administration officials — including several who are Jewish — told Axios that the president's solidarity with Israel has been among their proudest moments in the administration.
Three Biden administration officials told Axios they were rattled by protesters affixing ‘Zionism is Terrorism’ stickers on the White House gates last weekend amid blood-colored handprints — and the muted response afterward from Democrats outside the administration.
One administration official told Axios: ‘Members of the extreme left are the same people who claim to call out dog whistles, and in this case, they are now tone-deaf to antisemitism unless they see a swastika.’” [Axios]
World's first eye transplant
Aaron James of Hot Springs, Ark., poses with Dr. Eduardo D. Rodriguez after he underwent surgery for the world's first whole-eye transplant at NYU Langone. Photo: NYU Langone Health via Reuters
“Surgeons at NYU Langone have performed the first-ever whole-eye transplant, Reuters reports.
‘The mere fact that we transplanted an eye is a huge step forward, something that for centuries has been thought about, but it's never been performed,’ said Eduardo Rodriguez, the lead doctor on the transplant team.
Details: The patient, Aaron James, is a former power-line worker. An accident with a high-voltage wire destroyed most of his face, including his eye. He also lost an arm.
Doctors aren't sure whether James will get his sight back in the new eye, but figuring out the mechanics of a successful eye transplant is a huge step toward figuring out how to restore sight.” [Axios]
“With center-left parties on the decline across Europe, the Iberian peninsula has been one place where Socialists have been relatively strong.
Until this week, it was Portugal’s Antonio Costa in the best position, after securing an outright majority in last year’s election. In Madrid by contrast, Pedro Sanchez has been ducking and weaving his whole premiership to patch together the support to stay in power.
He looked set to be ousted by an alliance of right-wing parties in July’s vote. But a late surge was enough to secure a stalemate, even though the Socialist party came second.
Now their fortunes are reversing. Costa announced his shock resignation on Tuesday after being caught up in a corruption probe relating to lithium exploration in the north of the country. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is expected to announce a date for fresh elections today.
Sanchez on the other hand is closing in on an unlikely and controversial pact with a Catalan separatist group to claim a third term. A handful of lawmakers allied to former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont will agree to give the prime minister a majority in exchange for an amnesty that will absolve hundreds of activists, including Puigdemont, of charges relating to the illegal referendum on independence in 2017.
Sanchez had ruled out an amnesty ahead of this year’s election, saying previously such a move would be unconstitutional. So the reaction to his volte-face has been furious in Madrid, with protesters clashing with police outside the Socialist party headquarters.
But he has been here before. Sanchez survived the storm unleashed by his decision to pardon other separatists in 2021 and has shown that he’s happy to ride out attacks from those questioning his integrity.
While Costa is out in Portugal, it appears that Sanchez will carry the Socialist banner forward in Spain.” — Ben Sills [Bloomberg]
Sanchez speaks during an election night rally in Madrid on July 23. Photographer: Bloomberg
“US fighters fired upon a weapons depot in Syria used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in retaliation for attacks on American forces in Iraq and Syria, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said. Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said both Israel and the Palestinians need new leadership to have a chance of achieving a peace deal once the war in the Gaza Strip ends.” [Bloomberg]
“The Vatican said transgender people could be baptized and become godparents.” [New York Times]
“Ukraine is trying to draw more women into its army.” [New York Times]
“If the US and China can again come together in the quest to slash greenhouse gas emissions, there’s hope that progress can be made at COP28 in Dubai. The two countries’ top climate negotiators held talks for five days this week to lay the groundwork for a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this month. But the window for success at the climate summit in December is shrinking.” [Bloomberg]
“Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is used to people underestimating her. As Chiara Albanese writes, her what-you-see-is-what-you-get authenticity dovetails with a steeliness that just over a year ago catapulted her into power — a position no woman had ever held in Italy. In a country where many governments collapse after a year, few thought the far-right leader would last.” [Bloomberg]
Giorgia Meloni. Photographer: Alessia Pierdomenico/Bloomberg
“A new cohort of Russian business elite is benefiting from the void left when international firms suddenly exited following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The latest wave of entrepreneurs to seize their chance have snapped up assets from the likes of McDonald’s and packaging group Ball Corp. at discounted prices after the war prompted multinationals to leave because of pressure from sanctions and their own investors.” [Bloomberg]
“Devastating floods. Intense flooding in Somalia has killed at least 29 people and displaced more than 300,000 others, the country’s National Disaster Management Agency announced on Wednesday. Mogadishu declared a state of emergency this week amid search and rescue operations. With the nation’s death toll and displacement numbers likely higher than reported, this week’s flooding is Somalia’s worst in decades.
Extreme rain has rocked the Horn of Africa in recent days. In Kenya, at least 15 people have been killed and more than 240 acres of farmland destroyed since flooding began last Friday. Climate experts suspect that the region’s record-breaking drought, which killed around 43,000 people last year, has only exacerbated the crisis.” [Foreign Policy]
“EU expansion. The European Commission urged member states to open formal membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova on Wednesday. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also recommended that the bloc grant Georgia candidate status once final conditions are met—stripping away some of Russia’s power over its former Soviet satellite states at a time when Moscow has increasingly threatened direct intervention in Eastern Europe.
Ukraine’s push to join the European Union, specifically, coincides with Kyiv’s effort to join NATO. Ukrainians deserve to enter the EU “both for their defense of European values and for the fact that even in times of full-scale war, we keep our word,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.” [Foreign Policy]
“The US and Europe moved fast to choke off exports of oil, natural gas and coal from Russia after Putin invaded Ukraine. As Jonathan Tirone explains, however, Kremlin-controlled Rosatom continues to be the dominant source of fuel for the world’s nuclear-power stations, supplying about half of global demand for enriched uranium.” [Bloomberg]
“German Chancellor Olaf Scholz marked the 85th anniversary of the 1938 Nazi pogrom against Jews by declaring the country’s zero tolerance for antisemitism, while also reaching out to the nation’s roughly 5 million Muslim citizens.” [Bloomberg]
“Whoever you are, wherever you live in the world, it’s likely you felt the heat from climate change this past 12 months.
The world was 1.32C warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution and for 99% of people, the weather was hotter than it has been on average in recent years.
That’s an alarming background as policymakers head to Dubai for COP28, the United Nations climate conference, at the end of this month.
Drawing connections between the daily ebb and flow of world weather and the steady drumbeat of global warming is a tricky and relatively young science.
Climate Central, which carried out this analysis, uses models and recent averages to tease out the counterfactual — a world without climate change — from our reality of rising temperatures. Some 500 million people in 200 cities experienced day after day of extreme heat, made up to five times more likely by global warming.
The physical effects are also obvious. In the US, boiling hot sidewalks left people with second-degree burns; in East Africa, an exceptionally long-lasting cyclone killed hundreds; in Brazil, the Amazon River has receded to record lows. Climate change is a current — rather than future — threat. The most vulnerable people are the least able to shield themselves.
Scientists are running out of ways to describe it. ‘Gobsmackingly bananas,’ is how one memorably termed September’s temperature rise. ‘Extraordinary’ is what Joyce Kimutai, principal meteorologist at the Kenya Meteorological Department, says about this year. For Carlo Buontempo, director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, we’re in ‘uncharted territory.’
Whatever the superlatives, hard questions will need to be asked in Dubai about how to stop the carbon emissions that threaten more chaos in future — and how to help the poorest survive the shocks that are already here.”— Olivia Rudgard [Bloomberg]
WATCH: US Climate Envoy John Kerry discusses the significance of COP28 at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. Source: Bloomberg
“Ever since Hamas militants attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, life on Israel’s northern border has taken a radical turn, with tens of thousands evacuated and the army moving in with tanks, artillery and troops. The fear is that Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based Islamist group, may be preparing to join the war — or breach the boundary with Israel in a fresh attack.” [Bloomsberg]
Palestinians fleeing northern Gaza on Wednesday. Photographer: Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images
“Funding delays have forced the US to begin restricting military assistance to Ukraine, and the Pentagon said it has only $1 billion left to replenish stocks of weapons sent to the country. ‘We’re going to continue to roll out packages but they are getting smaller,’ Deputy Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said, urging Congress to approve the Biden administration’s $61.4 billion request for emergency funds.” [Bloomberg]
“Germany will significantly expand its military capabilities, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, as the nation builds out its role as the ‘central hub’ of NATO in Europe. ‘There is absolutely no question that the turning point that Russia’s war of aggression represents requires a long-term, permanent change of course,’ Scholz said at an event organized by the Bundeswehr.” [Bloomberg]
“Panama’s deal with First Quantum Minerals of Canada last month triggered protests that quickly spiraled beyond discontent with its giant copper mine. Already seething over inflation, unemployment and corruption, and with an election looming, public resentment in Panama boiled over. The episode that raises questions about the massive investments that will be required worldwide to extract critical minerals essential for the energy transition.” [Bloomberg]
November 10, 2023
Good morning. We’re covering Israel’s strategy in Gaza —
Citizens of Gaza City evacuating toward the south on foot.Samar Abu Elouf for The New York Times
Stops and starts
“The invasion seemed imminent. In the hours after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, Benjamin Netanyahu appeared ready to send his troops storming into Gaza. Instead, he chose a different strategy.
Israel’s initial ground invasion was slow and secretive, more of a crawl than a sprint. Gaza is tiny, about the size of Las Vegas. But Israel took days to cross the border, surround Gaza City and move in — a strategy that the country’s defense minister called “tightening the noose.” Even that fight has been halting, and White House officials said yesterday that Israel had agreed to allow daily four-hour pauses so civilians could evacuate. (Read what we know about the battle for Gaza City so far.)
Israel has slowed down to develop a plan that could accomplish two difficult — and competing — goals.
First, it wants to eliminate Hamas. The Israeli government sees the group as an intolerable threat on its border after the Oct. 7 attack, which officials say killed roughly 1,400 people. Hamas is committed to Israel’s destruction; one of its leaders recently promised to keep attacking until Israel was destroyed.
Second, Israel’s leaders need to protect their international standing and maintain their allies’ support. Israel’s attacks, which have killed thousands of civilians, have already hurt its reputation and its relationships. Many countries have recalled their ambassadors or condemned Israel at the United Nations. They say Israel has gone too far — and the war has only just started.
‘Israel set itself some pretty tight objectives,’ Lawrence Freedman, an expert on military strategy, told me. ‘It did not say degrade or reduce Hamas. It said eliminate or crush. That’s actually quite hard to do.’
This tension — between Israel’s vow to crush Hamas and also find a long-term solution to a notoriously intractable conflict — explains why the military has slowed down. It has taken time to consult with allies, determine its strategy and try to weaken Hamas. But now, U.S. officials are getting impatient. They want Israel to complete its mission before the anger over the war destabilizes the Middle East, meaning the country’s slow approach may have reached its limit.
Below, we explain Israel’s strategy in more detail.
Tactical benefits
The encirclement of Gaza City highlights Israel’s slow approach.
Over the course of two weeks, Israeli tanks and troops entered Gaza from three directions, surrounding Gaza City. Israel has described Gaza City as a major hub for Hamas’s military. But instead of immediately entering the city’s dense maze of streets on foot to seal off tunnels, find weapons stores and kill fighters, Israel waited on the outskirts.
Based on analysis of satellite imagery on Nov. 1. | By The New York Times
During this time, Israel took precautions to protect its troops. The military moved hundreds of armored vehicles and thousands of troops into northern Gaza, essentially creating a giant military camp, which my colleague Ronen Bergman visited, on Gaza’s coast. It also combed Gaza’s northern land for mines, tunnels and militants as it took control of territory. In doing so, Israel signaled that it was preparing for a long, difficult war.
Israel also used this time to weaken Hamas before troops entered Gaza City. It continued to strike Gaza, destroying many of the buildings Hamas could use as bunkers and sniper locations. (See maps of the strikes.)
‘It’s what we call a shaping operation,’ Alex Plitsas at the Atlantic Council explained. ‘They’re going to hit as much of the infrastructure, weapons and military targets as they can from the air so they reduce the risk to the troops on the ground.’
By waiting to invade, Israel also gave its blockade of resources time to take effect, allowing food, fuel and water to dwindle for both fighters and civilians. Food and clean water are now nearly nonexistent in Gaza City, forcing people to ransack bakeries for the last of the flour. Experts say the blockade will force Hamas to draw down on the supplies it has stockpiled underground for years.
Political constraints
Israeli officials said their slow approach was intended to help their military, my colleague Mark Landler reported. But the delay has also served another purpose: It has given Israel time to consult with its allies, many of whom are facing extraordinary pressure from their citizens to de-escalate the conflict.
Israel’s attacks, with their high civilian death toll, have prompted protests in cities around the world; one shut down traffic in New York City last night. The country’s allies, including the U.S. and Britain, have urged restraint. The Group of 7 nations asked Israel to pause its fighting to protect civilians and to ensure that they have humanitarian assistance.
Israel can’t just ignore these requests. It needs to keep its powerful allies on its side because they offer Israel weapons, legitimacy and deterrence against hostile neighboring countries that are threatening regional war. Yesterday, Israel appeared to relent: The U.S. said that Israel had agreed to stop fighting in some areas for several hours each day to give civilians more time and routes to flee northern Gaza. The pauses will not stop the clashing entirely, and civilians have reported coming under fire during the evacuation windows. Still, the delays will slow the battle further.
While the pauses will help Israel appease its allies, the country still wants to accomplish its military goal of defeating Hamas. In the process, civilians will continue to die, both in airstrikes and in the ground war. Videos from the conflict, spreading in social media posts, will continue to outrage people. And if the war drags on, American officials have warned, the high civilian death toll will only encourage more militants to join Hamas’s fight.
There isn’t an immediate solution to Israel’s dilemma, and its leaders will struggle to maintain international support while the military grinds toward its goal of defeating Hamas. In the meantime, the clock is ticking.
More on the war
Illustration by Marco Hernandez
See illustrations that show how the network of tunnels snaking under Gaza works.
The Palestinian Authority, which oversees the West Bank, said it would be open to governing Gaza if the U.S. committed to a two-state solution.
In Gaza, the death toll could be higher than previously thought, a Biden administration official told Congress.
The C.I.A. director and the chief of Israel’s spy agency met in Qatar to discuss a possible deal for Hamas to release hostages in exchange for a pause in fighting.
Israelis who survived the Holocaust found themselves again fighting for their lives when Hamas attacked on Oct. 7. ‘I was scared then, and I was scared now,’ Zvi Solow, 89, said.
The chant ‘from the river to the sea’ is a fixture at pro-Palestinian protests. Times reporters explain its history, and how it came to represent two very different ideas — a call for peace, or a call for genocide.
Sending voice notes in the dark, people in Gaza City told The Washington Post about life during the battle.” [New York Times]
Mortgage rates
“Mortgage rates dropped this week in the biggest one-week decline in a year. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to an average of 7.50% in the week ending Thursday, down from 7.76% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac. It is the second straight week rates have declined after rising for seven consecutive weeks. Still, it's unclear whether the lower rates will entice prospective buyers off the sidelines. Homebuyers have been stunned by surging rates that sent home loan applications and home sales down to a 13-year low in September.” [CNN]
More than 85,000 Kaiser Permanente workers approve new contract
“More than 85,000 Kaiser Permanente employees have ratified a four-year contract that will deliver pay raises and higher minimum wages to healthcare workers across hundreds of facilities in seven states and Washington, D.C. Last month, workers walked off the job in a three-day strike to protest staffing levels, wages and other grievances. The Coalition of Kaiser Permanente Unions and Kaiser Permanente said the pact will increase wages 21% over four years for existing workers and establish a minimum hourly wage of $25 for California workers and $23 for employees elsewhere in the nation.” Read more at USA Today
“The Tuohy family paid Michael Oher $138,000 from the proceeds of ''The Blind Side'' movie.” [New York Times]
“Jezebel, the pioneering feminist news and commentary site, is shutting down after 16 years. Its parent company cited ‘economic headwinds.’” [New York Times]
“Robert De Niro: The actor's company, Canal Productions, has been ordered to pay a former assistant $1.2m (£982,000) in damages over claims of gender discrimination and retaliation. Jurors did not find the actor personally liable.” [New York Times]
BeyoncéThe New York Times
“The next best thing: This has been a blockbuster of a year for the live-music business. Taylor Swift and Beyoncé circled the globe. Bruce Springsteen, Drake, Morgan Wallen and others filled arenas. But as it becomes more complex — and expensive — for fans to actually score concert tickets, a bootleg solution is emerging: Audience members are streaming the shows on TikTok and Instagram, allowing friends (and sometimes thousands of strangers) to watch from home.” [New York Times]
A Titanic passenger’s frozen-in-time pocket watch is up for auction.
The watch is expected to go for as much as $98,000. (Henry Aldridge and Son Ltd)
“What you’re looking at: A watch belonging to Sinai Kantor, who died in the 1912 disaster. It’s one of several Titanic items being auctioned this weekend.
Why the watch is special: Water stains where its hands once were point to about 2:25 a.m. — five minutes after the ship sank.”
Read this story at Washington Post
”More than three decades after its release, Tracy Chapman’s folk ballad “Fast Car” won song of the year at the Country Music Awards.” [New York Times]
“Lives Lived: Frank Borman was the commander of the Apollo flight that was the first to orbit the moon. He died at 95.” [New York Times]