The Full Belmonte, 1/10/2024
Mohammed Rimawi recovers from his injuries on Sunday. (AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR
Video appears to show the Israeli army shot 3 Palestinians, killing 1, without provocation
“Security camera video from a West Bank village shows a young man standing in a central square when he is suddenly shot and drops to the ground. Two others rushing to his aid are also hit, leaving a 17-year-old dead, moments before Israeli military jeeps roll in. An Associated Press review of the video and interviews with the two wounded survivors showed Israeli soldiers opened fire on the three when they did not appear to pose a threat. Read more.
Why this matters:
The fatal shooting in the village of Beit Rima last week is the latest in a series of incidents in which soldiers appeared to fire without provocation, a trend Palestinians say has worsened since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza three months ago.
The military did not respond when asked if soldiers had violated military policy and did not say whether there would be an official investigation. Israeli rights group B’Tselem said that even if questionable shootings are caught on camera and investigated by the military, they rarely result in indictments.” [AP News]
Blinken gathers Mideast support for postwar plan
“On his fourth trip to the Middle East in three months, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is presenting Israel the tantalizing prospect of security and acceptance in the region, with a caveat: Agreeing to a Palestinian state is required. Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog and other leaders Tuesday in Tel Aviv, hoping to curb civilian deaths and find common ground on Gaza’s postwar future. Blinken did not answer a question about whether Israel is receptive to a Palestinian state, a likely sign Netanyahu’s opposition to that idea hasn’t wavered.” Read more at USA Today
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) meets with Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz (2nd-R) in Tel Aviv on January 9, 2024.
EVELYN HOCKSTEIN, POOL/AFP via Getty Images
Trump's lawyers contend he is immune from prosecution
“During arguments at the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, a lawyer for Donald Trump said as president he could have ordered the military to kill his political rivals and still would be immune from prosecution for those crimes today unless he were first impeached and then convicted in a Senate trial. The argument came as the former president, who attended the hearing, contends he is immune to federal charges of conspiring to interfere in the 2020 election because his actions took place while he was president. He was impeached in the House of Representatives and acquitted in the Senate for similar allegations that he incited the Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021. Read more
•Thursday brings another trial for Trump: Closing arguments in a civil bank fraud case that could cost Trump large parts of his business empire.” [USA Today]
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
GOP debate
“Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will face off on CNN tonight in the fifth and final Republican presidential debate before the Iowa caucuses kick off next week. Both are searching for the critical blow that could position them as the sole viable challenger to former President Donald Trump, who is again skipping the event. The debate will begin at 9 p.m. ET at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, and it will be the first time that Haley and DeSantis will meet on stage alone. Meanwhile, Haley has trimmed Trump's lead in the primary race in New Hampshire to single digits, according to a new CNN Poll. Trump, however, has crossed the 50% mark in most recent polling on the Iowa caucuses and still holds wider majorities in national polls for the Republican nomination.” [CNN]
Sprawling storms wallop US with tornado reports, damage and heavy snow, closing roads and schools
“A storm packing high winds and heavy rain was sweeping through the Northeast early Wednesday, while wild winter weather elsewhere brought tornadoes and deadly accidents in the Midwest and South, flood threats in Florida, and blizzards in the Northwest. Read more.
Recent developments:
Deaths have been reported in Wisconsin, North Carolina, Alabama and Georgia because of the extreme weather conditions, including tornadoes and strong winds. Storm-related injuries were also reported in Florida.
New Jersey’s governor declared a state of emergency Tuesday afternoon and New York City officials evacuated nearly 2,000 migrants housed at a sprawling tent complex ahead of predicted wind speeds that could top 70 mph. In Maine, Gov. Janet Mills delayed the opening of all state offices until noon Wednesday, while 80 public school systems across Georgia called off classes entirely.” [AP News]
Senate Republicans want another extension to dodge a government shutdown
“Senate Republicans want to once again extend current government funding levels, likely into March, in order to buy more time to avoid a shutdown and negotiate spending bills.
It would mark the third time Congress has pushed its own deadline to fund the government in recent months. Now, lawmakers are racing to meet deadlines on Jan. 19 and Feb. 2 in order to keep the government's doors open for Americans.
•Lawmakers still don’t have a spending cap for each section of the government that needs to be funded, even after months of focus on avoiding a shutdown.
•The proposal from Senate Republicans is likely to put them at odds with their colleagues in the House. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., pledged in November not to approve another short-term extension after the measure that kept the government open into 2024.
•If Congress doesn't meet its deadlines, thousands of federal employees would be furloughed, and it could hit nutrition benefits and other programs Americans rely on.” [USA Today]
Ecuador’s escalating gang violence is broadcast live to the nation
“TC Television studio was in the middle of a newscast when masked gunmen burst in, unleashing at least 15 minutes of threats and fear – all broadcast live. The unprecedented assault on a TV station in Ecuador came hours after a series of other attacks, police officer abductions and the apparent prison escapes of two leaders of Ecuador’s most powerful gangs. Read more.
Why this matters:
President Daniel Noboa issued a decree saying the violence-plagued country had entered an ‘internal armed conflict,’ in what some analysts see as a watershed moment for Ecuador.
On Tuesday, shortly after the gunmen stormed the TV station, Noboa issued another decree designating 20 drug trafficking gangs as terrorist groups and authorizing Ecuador’s military to ‘neutralize’ them within the bounds of international humanitarian law.
‘This is a turning point,’ said Will Freeman, a political analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, adding that while gangs in Ecuador have previously assassinated a presidential candidate and set off car bombs in front of government buildings, Tuesday’s events marked a new peak in violence.” [AP News]
Seeking Long-Term Stability
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) meets with Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz (second to right) in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Jan. 9.Evelyn Hockstein/Pool/AFP
“U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other members of the nation’s war cabinet, in Tel Aviv on Tuesday. This is his fourth diplomatic trip to the Middle East since the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7.
Blinken pushed Israel to establish a ‘practical pathway’ for the creation of a Palestinian state, which he argued would help convince Israel’s Arab neighbors to normalize ties. On Monday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Blinken that diplomatic recognition of Israel is still possible—but only if Netanyahu ends the war in the Gaza Strip and works toward securing a Palestinian state.
Arab nations are willing ‘to help Gaza stabilize and recover; to chart a political path forward for the Palestinians; and to work toward long-term peace, security, and stability in the region as a whole,’ Blinken said. But the longer that Israel continues bombarding Gaza, the worse that public opinion of Israel grows, hampering Arab government efforts to secure closer ties with Israel. More than 23,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces in the past three months, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry.
Washington’s chief diplomat also urged Netanyahu to limit civilian casualties, avoid all-out war with Hezbollah, and focus on long-term stability in the region. Last week, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant proposed that future governance of Gaza be run by local Palestinians not affiliated with Hamas instead of the Palestinian Authority, which oversees the West Bank. Many Western actors, including the United States, have pushed Netanyahu to accept a future in which a ‘revamped and revitalized’ Palestinian Authority controls Gaza.
On Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden said he is ‘quietly working with the Israeli government to get them to reduce and significantly get out of Gaza.’ Israel began troop drawdowns this month, and the military reduced its scale of operations in northern Gaza on Monday following an Israeli announcement over the weekend that it had successfully dismantled Hamas infrastructure there. This new phase is expected to see less intense fighting in central and southern Gaza.
In the meantime, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will hold its first hearing on Thursday in South Africa’s case accusing Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians. Cape Town filed the lawsuit in December 2023, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Malaysia, Turkey, Jordan, and Bolivia have all supported it. The United States and United Kingdom oppose the case, with U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby calling it ‘meritless, counterproductive, and completely without any basis.’
There is ‘nothing more atrocious and preposterous’ than this accusation, Israeli President Isaac Herzog said, reminding the ICJ that Hamas continues to threaten the total destruction of the Israeli state. Meanwhile, far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, have called for the ‘voluntary displacement’ of civilians from Gaza, a proposal that activists accuse of being a ‘mass displacement’ that would violate human rights standards.” [Foreign Policy]
“Locked up. Dual Russian-U.S. citizen Robert Romanov Woodland was arrested in Moscow on Friday for his alleged involvement in a large-scale drug operation, Russian officials announced on Tuesday. He is accused of ‘illegal acquisition, storage, transportation, manufacture, [and] processing of narcotic drugs’ and will remain in custody until March 5. He faces a sentence of up to 20 years.
Another high-profile arrest shocked locals in Azerbaijan on Tuesday when France accused Baku of arbitrarily detaining French national Martin Ryan. Ryan was arrested on Dec. 4 for espionage charges and was sentenced to a four-month detention. Paris has demanded his immediate release. The news worsens already fragile relations between Azerbaijan and France after Baku accused Paris of selling weapons to its rival, Armenia, and both nations expelled the other’s diplomats last month over allegations of poor conduct that is ‘not compatible’ with their diplomatic status.” [Foreign Policy]
“A new PM. French President Emmanuel Macron appointed Education Minister Gabriel Attal to be the nation’s next prime minister on Tuesday after former leader Élisabeth Borne unexpectedly resigned on Monday. At age 34, Attal is France’s youngest prime minister in history. ‘I know I can count on your energy and your commitment to implement the project of revitalization and regeneration that I announced,’ Macron wrote to Attal on X, formerly Twitter.
Attal has promised to address rising cost of living and public discontent at a time when far-right leader Marine Le Pen is gaining popularity. He is the first openly gay prime minister in Paris’s history and has been one of the highest-polling politicians in France over the past few months. Macron is likely hoping that Attal’s popularity will help stem growing disunity within his own centrist government.” [Foreign Policy]
“Rejoining the race. Pakistan’s Supreme Court lifted a lifetime ban on Monday that bars politicians with convictions from running for office. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif celebrated the ruling, as it allows him to run in next month’s election. Sharif was found guilty of corruption in 2018 and sentenced to 10 years in prison due to revelations uncovered in the Panama Papers, leaked documents that detail illegal offshore accounts.
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan is exempt from the ruling because the country’s electoral commission banned him from politics for five years—despite his many efforts to campaign from behind bars. Khan was removed from power via a no-confidence vote and found guilty of corruption, inflammatory rhetoric, and inciting riots in 2022.” [Foreign Policy]