The Full Belmonte, 10/31/2023
Israeli tanks have penetrated deep into Gaza.
“What to know: It’s the farthest Israeli troops have advanced into the besieged territory since the start of the Israel-Gaza war. Israel continues to reject calls for a cease-fire.
Yesterday: Israel said it rescued one soldier taken hostage Oct. 7 by Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza. Hamas released a video of three other female Israeli hostages.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Israeli prime minister vows no cease-fire
“Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected calls for a cease-fire as the Israeli military expanded its incursion into the northern part of the Gaza Strip.
Israel's ground invasion will pressure Hamas to free hostages,Netanyahu said in a rare press conference Monday, without explaining how his forces would do so.
•The Israeli leader's words come after a female Israel soldier kidnapped on Oct. 7 was rescued from Hamas terrorists, emphasizing the importance of a ground operation, Israeli officials say. Meanwhile, another missing person in Israel was confirmed dead: 23-year-old Shani Louk, an Israeli-German citizen, who was among attendees of a music festival that Hamas terrorists attacked.
•The Israel-Hamas war continues to stir emotions and stoke divisions worldwide. In France, a spike in antisemitism has left many Jewish people afraid to leave their homes.
•U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to testify along with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to make the case to Congress that the United States should immediately send aid to Israel and Ukraine. They are testifying Tuesday at a Senate hearing as the administration’s massive $105 billion emergency aid request has already hit roadblocks.” [USA Today]
TOPSHOT - A Palestinian man looks for survivors in the rubble of a building following Israeli bombing in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, on October 31, 2023.
SAID KHATIB, AFP via Getty Images
What autoworkers won
United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain walks with union members striking at a Ford plant in Wayne, Mich., last month. Photo: Paul Sancya/AP
“The United Auto Workers' tentative deal with GM today likely puts an end to six weeks of strikes that shut down large swathes of the auto industry.
Why it matters: The proposed agreement — similar to deals struck in recent days with Ford and Stellantis — would provide big gains in wages and benefits, plus increased job security, Axios' Joann Muller writes.
The exact terms of each deal aren't fully known. But here's what UAW won from all three automakers, according to AP:
25% wage increases over the 4 1/2-year contract.
An immediate 11% raise upon ratification.
A restoration of cost of living adjustments that would bring pay increases to about 30% by 2028.
Ford's deal includes a $5,000 ratification bonus, increased 401(k) contributions and billions of dollars for plant renovations and new models.
Under the Stellantis deal, the company would keep open factories in Trenton, Michigan, and Toledo, Ohio. A former plant in Belvidere, Illinois, would reopen.
The deals must still be ratified by 146,000 UAW members across GM, Ford and Stellantis — the parent company of Jeep, Ram and Chrysler.
Reality check: The union didn't get all of its initial demands, which were much steeper than the negotiated contract.
UAW President Shawn Fain wanted 40% raises and a 32-hour work week for 40 hours of pay.” [Axios]
Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP
Above: President Biden gives a thumbs up in response to a question about the UAW-GM deal as he boards Air Force One in New Castle, Delaware, today.
“In Las Vegas, a man was charged with threatening to kill Senator Jacky Rosen, a Nevada Democrat who is Jewish; he also suggested she was complicit in the deaths of Palestinians.” [New York Times]
“Sam Bankman-Fried faced harsh cross-examination from federal prosecutors, who grilled him about contradictions in the way he spoke about and ran his crypto company.” [New York Times]
Eyedrops from CVS, Rite Aid and others carry possible infection risk, FDA says
FILE - A sign for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is displayed outside their offices in Silver Spring, Md., Dec. 10, 2020. U.S. health regulators are warning consumers not to use more than two dozen varieties of over-the-counter eyedrops because of the risk of infections that could lead to blindness. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)
“WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. health regulators are warning consumers not to use more than two dozen varieties of over-the-counter eyedrops because of the risk of infections that could lead to blindness.
The Food and Drug Administration advisory applies to lubricating drops sold by six companies, including CVS Health, Target, Rite Aid and Cardinal Health. Consumers should stop using the products immediately and avoid purchasing any that remain on pharmacy and store shelves, the FDA said in a statement Friday.
The agency asked the companies to recall their products last week, because FDA inspectors found unsanitary conditions and bacteria at the facility producing the drops. The FDA did not disclose the location of the factory or when it was inspected.
No injuries related to the products had been reported at the time of the announcement, but the FDA encouraged doctors and patients to submit cases through the agency’s online reporting system.
Earlier this year, federal officials linked an outbreak of drug-resistant bacteria to eyedrops from two companies, EzriCare and Delsam Pharma. More than 80 people in the U.S. tested positive for eye infections from the rare bacterial strain, according to the most recent update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
After the products were recalled in February, health inspectors visited the manufacturing plant in India that made the eyedrops and uncovered problems with how they were made and tested, including inadequate sterility measures.” [AP News]
Maine mass shooter had numerous run-ins with authorities, showed warning signs long before shooting
“Authorities in Maine spent Monday piecing together the events that led to the worst mass shooting in the state’s history — with the gunman’s record of interaction with police and warning signs involving mental illness and violent threats emerging as key threads.” Read More at AP News
Trump's old-age issues
Former President Trump busts a move in Sioux City, Iowa, on Sunday. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images
“President Biden's age has been a big topic of 2024 coverage. But if former President Trump wins the presidency back, he'd also be the oldest person ever to be inaugurated.
And his campaign has disclosed far less about his health than the White House has about Biden, Axios' Alex Thompson reports.
Why it matters: Trump, 77, often mocks the 80-year-old Biden as feeble and confused — even as some of Trump's foes are highlighting the former president's own gaffes and relatively light campaign schedule.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, trying to cut into Trump's big polling lead in the GOP presidential race, has been targeting Trump's age.
Last week, DeSantis' campaign revealed a ‘Trump accident tracker’ to compile the former president's verbal slips on the trail, and asked whether Trump had the ‘stamina’ to be president — using a word Trump often has invoked against his opponents, particularly Hillary Clinton in 2016.
‘This is a different Donald Trump than 2015 and '16 — lost the zip on his fastball,’ DeSantis told reporters in New Hampshire last week.
Trump's campaign has posted many videos of Biden stumbling, while Biden's campaign has answered with ads with Trump looking heavy and sweaty, often while golfing.
In recent weeks, Trump has mixed up Jeb Bush with George W. Bush and repeatedly said ‘Obama’ and ‘Obama administration’ while trying to criticize Biden or Hillary Clinton — slip-ups the DeSantis campaign highlighted.
Last week, Trump called Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ‘the leader of Turkey.’
Last month, before the Israel-Hamas war broke out, Trump warned a crowd that Biden would lead the U.S. into ‘World War II’ — which ended in 1945.
Both the Biden and DeSantis campaigns chided Trump after he told a crowd in Sioux City, Iowa, on Saturday that he was happy to be in ‘Sioux Falls’ — which is in South Dakota.
Trump went public in 2020 about taking what he called a ‘very hard’ cognitive test. He's also tried to portray himself as athletic and vigorous, posting videos of himself golfing.
The Trump campaign didn't comment for this story.” [Axios]
In Mississippi, most voters will have no choice about who represents them in the Legislature
More than four-fifths of Mississippi’s legislative candidates will have no major-party opposition in the Nov. 7 general election. Though Mississippi represents an extreme example, it highlights a national decline in competition for state legislative seats. Read More at AP News
Ex-North Dakota lawmaker charged with flying to Prague with intent to rape a minor
“A retired longtime North Dakota lawmaker has been arrested and charged with traveling to Prague with the intent to rape a minor, according to a federal indictment. He was taken into custody on Monday in Grand Forks.” Read More at AP News
Trump's plan to bring back mental institutions
A vendor sells merchandise outside a Trump event Sunday in Sioux City, Iowa. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images
“Former President Trump is calling for the return of ‘mental institutions’ as part of his plan "to get the homeless off our streets" if he wins a second term, Axios' Caitlin Owens reports.
Why it matters: Large psychiatric facilities lost credibility in part because they ended up simply warehousing people, rather than doing much to treat them.
‘When I am back in the White House, we will use every tool, lever, and authority to get the homeless off our streets,’ Trump said in a video posted on his campaign site in August.
Trump said his administration would offer treatment for people "just temporarily down on their luck."
‘And for those who are severely mentally ill and deeply disturbed, we will bring them back to mental institutions, where they belong,’ he said, ‘with the goal of reintegrating them back into society once they are well enough to manage.’” [Axios]
Border wall
“Former President Donald Trump over the weekend falsely claimed he had campaigned for the presidency in 2016 on a promise that Mexico would pay for "a piece" of his border wall. Trump, who is now leading the 2024 Republican presidential field, has been criticized by rival candidates such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie for breaking his signature campaign promise to get Mexico to pay for the wall. The wall was paid for by Americans; the Trump administration directed more than $16 billion in federal money toward the project. The former president later tweaked his rhetoric, claiming that Mexico would completely reimburse the US for the wall — but that did not occur.” [CNN]
Antisemitic mob storms Russian airport looking for Israelis
“A crowd of hundreds stormed an airport in a predominantly Muslim region of Russia in search of Jewish passengers arriving from Israel, according to Russian news reports.
Video from the scene shows the angry mob running amok inside the terminal, then rushing the tarmac, as some shout antisemitic slogans.
More than 20 people were injured, with two in critical condition, according to Dagestan’s Health Ministry. At least 60 people were detained, the local Interior Ministry said, but it’s not clear whether charges have been filed.
Following the incident, Russian President Vladimir Putin called a meeting today of the country’s security and law enforcement officials.” [NBC News]
U.S. footprint in Middle East
Data: Axios research. Map: Kavya Beheraj/Axios
“With the Israel-Hamas war escalating, the U.S. risks becoming involved in a conflict that could entangle some of the 40,000+ U.S. military personnel based across the region.” [Axios]
In Nairobi, Kenya.Thomas Mukoya/Reuters
“In Kenya, King Charles is facing calls to answer for British colonial abuses. It is his first trip to Africa as monarch.” [New York Times]
“Benjamin Netanyahu, long known as the great survivor of Israeli politics, may be finally losing his grip.
The 74-year-old’s failure to prevent the savage Oct. 7 attack by Hamas that killed 1,400 Israelis and led to the kidnapping of 240 others is putting the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history under rising pressure to quit.
Critics accuse Netanyahu and the security establishment of ignoring the Palestinian militant group’s ambitions after it became clear that preparations for the cross-border assault took place over a period of years.
He effectively undermined the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank in a divide-and-conquer approach, they say. And he allowed the arrival of hundreds of millions of dollars in Qatari aid for Gaza, which may have permitted Hamas to spend intensively on military training.
Netanyahu sparked furor this week when he rejected responsibility for the massacre, laying the blame on the security services in a late night social media post that he deleted a few hours later with a rare apology.
His opponents went so far as to question Netanyahu’s ability to wage the war in the Gaza Strip, which many in Israel see as an existential struggle for the country.
At a press conference yesterday, the Israeli leader dismissed the calls for his resignation, vowing to fight ‘until the battle is won’ against Hamas, which is designated a terrorist organization by the US and European Union.
Still, the controversy frayed the wartime unity with opposition leader Benny Gantz, who’s joined an emergency government, swiftly demanding Netanyahu retract the criticism.
While Netanyahu and his extreme right-wing government successfully faced down months of protests against efforts to weaken the judiciary, his chances of staying in power once the war with Hamas concludes look considerably diminished.”— Henry Meyer [Bloomberg]
Anti-Netanyahu stickers on a billboard in Tel Aviv on Oct. 27. Photographer: Yahel Gazit/AFP/Getty Images
“Saudi Arabia’s military is on high alert after deadly clashes with Iran-backed rebels in the mountainous southwestern Jazan Province on the border with Yemen, sources say. Four Saudi soldiers died in the battle last week with the Houthi fighters, the first known casualties for the country’s forces since a tentative truce was reached in April last year.” [Bloomberg]
WATCH: Saudi Arabia’s military is on high alert after deadly clashes with Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Sam Dagher reports. Source: Bloomberg
“President Emmanuel Macron will travel to energy-rich Central Asia this week as part of a drive both to boost France’s electricity security and tempt the former Soviet republics to look beyond their own dependence on Russia. He’s visiting Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, two suppliers of the uranium that powers French nuclear reactors.” [Bloomberg]
“China’s leading Communist Party mouthpiece called for improving ties with the US, the latest sign the relationship between the world’s largest economies is steadying ahead of a possible meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden. The People’s Daily newspaper said in a commentary today Beijing hopes relations with Washington will ‘stabilize and improve’ rather than slide into ‘conflict and confrontation.’” [Bloomberg]
“Biden will host almost a dozen leaders from the Americas as his administration sets up a new forum to bolster regional competitiveness, address migration and its causes, and offer the US as a geostrategic alternative to China. Friday’s meeting of the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity will focus on deepening trade and financial relationships.” [Bloomberg]
“Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is planning to hold a live-streamed conversation with billionaire Elon Musk after his artificial intelligence summit wraps up Thursday. He’s hoping to use the meeting to show the UK is still a global player after leaving the EU. But with Italian premier Giorgia Meloni the only other Group of Seven leader due to attend the gathering of about 100 officials and executives this week, it’s proving difficult.” [Bloomberg]
“Labour leader Keir Starmer will seek to clarify his position on the Israel-Hamas conflict in a speech today as the UK’s main opposition party continues to face internal splits over its response.” [Bloomberg]
“Venezuela’s electoral court said it’s suspending ‘all effects’ of the opposition primaries days after President Nicolás Maduro called the vote a fraud, potentially souring a US-brokered deal.” [Bloomberg]
White House vies for global leadership on AI governance
President Biden signs an executive order on artificial intelligence alongside Vice President Harris at the White House on Monday. (Al Drago/Bloomberg News)
“Officials in Washington for years have lamented what they have described as the United States relinquishing its role as a global leader to Europe, China and other governments when it comes to setting rules and regulations on technology.
The White House seemingly sought to upend that impression Monday by unveiling an expansive executive order to harness the potential, and safeguard against the risk, of artificial intelligence, as your host and Cat Zakrzewski reported.
President Biden and other White House officials said the sprawling order asserts U.S. leadership on AI, even as they acknowledged some of its limitations. They called on Congress to follow through with new legislation on issues like data privacy and children’s safety.
‘We intend that the actions we are taking domestically will serve as a model for international action,’ said Vice President Harris, who spoke ahead of Biden at the signing.
She later added: ‘When it comes to AI, America is a global leader. It is American companies that lead the world in AI innovation. It is America that can catalyze global action and build global consensus in a way that no other country can.’
Biden spoke of the order in comparative terms, calling it the ‘most significant action any government anywhere in the world has ever taken on AI safety, security and trust.’
The global assessments were met with some skepticism — and while several top lawmakers called it a positive step, many said congressional action is ultimately needed to address the scope of the challenges posed by artificial intelligence.
‘While this is a good step forward, we need additional legislative measures, and I will continue to work diligently to ensure that we prioritize security, combat bias and harmful misuse, and responsibly roll out technologies,’ said Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark R. Warner (D-Va.).
Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) reiterated his recent comments that the executive order is ‘no substitute for congressional action.’ (Biden echoed the remarks, saying, ‘This executive order represents bold action, but we still need Congress to act.’)
But Republican leaders on Capitol Hill criticized the order, suggesting that it could impede AI development and set the country back in terms of global competitiveness.
Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.), the top Republican on the Senate Commerce Committee, said the order would ‘hurt innovation and foreclose meaningful debate in Congress about harnessing the benefits of AI technologies.’ Cruz said its release ‘marks a retreat in U.S. leadership from one of the most transformative technologies of our era.’
House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) issued a statement calling for the United States to ‘win the future and beat China’ and warning that ‘unilateral, one-size-fits-all regulations will not alleviate every concern and may ultimately hamper innovation.’
The remarks arrive as Harris prepares to lead a U.S. delegation at a major British summit on AI later this week, where the administration is poised to showcase its new efforts.
‘We will work with our allies and our partners to apply existing international rules and norms with a purpose to promote global order and stability and, where necessary, to build support for additional rules and norms,’ Harris said Monday.” [New York Times]
Good morning. We’re covering the autoworkers’ victories —
Union members picketing General Motors in Tennessee.Seth Herald/Reuters
Moving up the range
“If you want to understand why the United Auto Workers union has evidently won its strikes against Detroit’s Big Three, it helps to return to the work of a 20th-century economist named Richard Lester.
Lester, a longtime Princeton professor, coined a phrase to describe wage negotiations between an employer and a worker: the ‘range of indeterminacy.’ It captures the fact that wages are not a reflection simply of market forces, like a worker’s productivity or a company’s profits. In the real world, similar workers often earn different wages. Their wages fall somewhere in Lester’s range of indeterminacy.
Why? Most workers don’t know exactly how valuable their contributions are and therefore what their true market wage should be.
Company executives typically don’t know either, but the executives do have more information — about how much money different workers make and how productive each is. Employers also have more leverage. Companies employ many workers, and losing one of them is usually manageable. For most workers, by contrast, quitting over a pay dispute can create financial hardship.
For these reasons, workers’ pay often settles at the low end of the range of indeterminacy. In the relationship between an employer and an individual employee, the employer has more power. But there is an important adjective in that previous sentence: individual.
When employees band together, they can reduce the power imbalance. They can share information with one another and exert some leverage of their own on the bargaining process. A business that can afford to lose one worker over a pay dispute may not be able to lose dozens.
Of course, there is a term for a group of workers who come together to increase their bargaining power: a labor union.
Is Tesla next?
Over the past week, the Big Three — General Motors, Ford and Stellantis (which owns Chrysler) — have each agreed to wage increases that workers surely could not have received by asking nicely. The G.M. deal, announced yesterday, was the last of the three.
After adjusting for inflation, many workers seem set to receive roughly a 10 percent raise over the next four and a half years. By 2028, when the contract expires, many workers will make between $30 an hour and $42 an hour, or between $60,000 and $84,000 a year for full-time work.
The pay increases are the largest that autoworkers have received in decades, my colleagues Neal Boudette and Jack Ewing explain. The raises are also a reminder that organized labor has an unmatched record in reducing economic inequality.
A large academic study, using Gallup surveys covering millions of workers over decades, found that unionized workers typically made 10 percent to 20 percent more than similar non-unionized workers. The extra pay generally does not harm economic growth, the economists found. It instead often comes out of executive salaries and business profits, reducing inequality. Unions alter the division of the economic pie more than the pie’s size.
Or to put the idea in Lester’s terms, unions shift wages out of the low end of the range of indeterminacy.
To be clear, unions sometimes do win pay increases so large that wages exceed a reasonable range and hobble an employer. Unions can also block necessary changes in a company’s operations. Such overreach happened in parts of the auto industry during the 1970s, contributing to Detroit’s decline. Today, auto executives warn of a similar risk. The unions counter that the recent raises make up for years of wage stagnation — and that Detroit’s executives have received even larger raises recently.
I don’t pretend to know whether these wage increases will look reasonable in hindsight. It will depend partly on whether Chrysler, Ford and G.M. make more appealing vehicles in the years ahead than they did in the 1970s.
But it would be a mistake to assume that the executives are automatically correct that the wage increases are excessive. Wages make up less than 5 percent of the cost of many vehicles. And company executives in almost every industry often claim that wages are too high. They prefer it when wages are on the low end of the range of indeterminacy — partly because it leaves more money for the executives to take home.
A hat tip: I learned about Lester’s work from Lawrence Katz, a leading labor economist today. You can read The Times’s 1998 obituary of Lester.
The U.A.W. leader Shawn Fain and President Biden.Evan Vucci/Associated Press
More on the deals
President Biden — who risked political capital by picketing with striking G.M. workers last month — called the deals ‘a testament to the power of unions.’
The agreements include commitments by the companies to expand or reopen Midwestern factories that employ unionized workers.
Shawn Fain, the president of the U.A.W., signaled that the union could soon begin drives to organize U.S. workers at Tesla, Toyota, Honda and BMW.
Three young labor activists — who never worked in an auto factory — helped the union become more media savvy, The Wall Street Journal reports.” [New York Times]
Dust might have killed off the dinosaurs.
“What we already knew: An asteroid smashed into present-day Mexico 66 million years ago. Most experts agree it triggered a mass extinction, wiping out almost all dinosaurs.
What’s new? The impact made a dust cloud that covered Earth for 15 years, a study said. That may have blocked the sun, halting plant growth and collapsing the food chain.”
Read this story at Washington Post
THE TEXAS RANGERS
“Dec. 1, 2021: Rangers sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray in their first steps towards building a contender.
Oct. 30, 2023: Seager, Semien and Gray all deliver as the Rangers take another step towards their first World Series title.
Texas got huge contributions -- both expected and unexpected -- from that trio in a 3-1 Game 3 win over the Diamondbacks that tips the series in Texas' favor, 2-1.
Semien had a two-out RBI single to open the scoring. It was his first RBI since Game 2 of the ALDS.
One pitch later, Seager crushed a two-run home run. It was his 18th career postseason home run; only Derek Jeter (20) has more among shortstops.
Then came the unsung hero: After Max Scherzer left with a back issue , Gray came to the rescue with three scoreless innings on no notice.
Another injury-related downside for Texas was Adolis García leaving with left side tightness.
Both teams are going with a bullpen game tonight, making Gray's unexpected appearance even more crucial. If he had struggled, who knows what Texas' staff would look like tonight? Instead, the Rangers are two games away from a title, and they have those signings from 23 months ago to thank, writes Matt Snyder.
Honorable mentions
Lionel Messi won the Ballon d'Or, becoming the first active MLS player to do so. Here's what it means for the league.
Aaron Judge won the 2023 Roberto Clemente Award.
Rashan Gary and the Packers agreed to a four-year, $107-million extension.
The Bills signed Leonard Fournette to their practice squad.
The expanded future 17-team ACC football schedule has arrived.
Oregon got a commitment from 2024 five-star EDGE Elijah Rushing.” [CBS Sports]
Matthew Perry spent final hours playing pickleball, coach said
“‘Friends’ star Matthew Perry played pickleball hours before his untimely deathSaturday, the actor’s friend and coach told NBC News today.
Perry played for about an hour that day, Matt Manasse, his pickleball mentor and friend of two years, said. The actor played the sport four or five days a week, and viewed it as a key to sober living, Manasse said.
Perry was found unresponsive in a jacuzzi at his Los Angeles home on Saturday after an apparent drowning, authorities said. He was 54.
Perry's initial autopsy results were inconclusive pending a toxicology report, authorities said Sunday.” [NBC News]
“Lives Lived: Wanda Poltawska survived gruesome medical experiments in a Nazi concentration camp. She sought spiritual help from a Krakow priest who, decades later, became Pope John Paul II. She died at 101.” [New York Times]