The Full Belmonte, 10/30/2023
In an address, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked nations to stand with Israel: ‘The future of our civilization is at stake.’
Israeli tanks and other military vehicles on the move inside the Gaza Strip.
“He spoke as the Israeli military advanced deeper into the Gaza Strip, moving toward Gaza City from at least three sides as it continued battering the enclave with airstrikes.”
Read more at New York Times
Israel
“Israel over the weekend announced it had entered a ‘second stage’ of its war against Hamas and on Sunday said its ground operations in Gaza would intensify. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his intent to ‘destroy’ the militant group after its October 7 attack on Israel, which killed more than 1,400 people, mostly civilians. In Gaza, the number of people killed during Israeli strikes since October 7 has risen to around 8,000, the Hamas-controlled Palestinian Ministry of Health said Sunday. The UN will hold an emergency meeting today, where the UAE will seek a resolution on a ‘humanitarian pause’ in the fighting, though Israel has vowed to continue its ground raids in the coming days.” [CNN]
Biden Issues First Executive Order That Addresses AI Risks
“President Joe Biden on Monday issued his first executive order that seeks to address the potential risks to the U.S. posed by rapidly advancing artificial intelligence. The order includes a range of new measures intended to mitigate the potential consequences of the technology for Americans’ safety, privacy, and national security, among other areas of concern. Developers of the most powerful systems will now have to ‘share their safety test results and other critical information with the U.S. government,’ while new governmental standards will be drawn up to ensure AI systems are ‘safe, secure, and trustworthy.’ The Department of Commerce will also develop guidance designed to support content authentication and ‘watermarking to clearly label AI-generated content,’ while separate guardrails will be implemented to protect ‘against the risks of using AI to engineer dangerous biological materials.’ [Daily Beast]
Read it at The White House
Biden's aggressive AI move
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
“President Biden's long-awaited executive order on AI, which dropped at 5 a.m. today, requires developers of the most powerful systems to share internal testing data — usually kept private — with the government.
Why it matters: This is a significant transparency-boosting step that may not be welcomed by the secretive industry, Axios' Maria Curi and Ashley Gold report.
White House deputy chief of staff Bruce Reed calls the order ‘the strongest set of actions any government in the world has ever taken on AI safety, security, and trust.’
‘It's the next step in an aggressive strategy to do everything on all fronts to harness the benefits of AI and mitigate the risks,’ he added.
Biden will sign the order in the East Room this afternoon. Key points:
Companies developing AI models that pose serious risks to public health and safety, the economy or national security will have to notify the federal government when training the model and share results of red-team safety tests before making models public.
That provision goes beyond voluntary commitments that the White House garnered from AI companies and requires notification in accordance with the Defense Production Act.
A senior administration official told reporters on a preview call that the DPA enforcement mechanism wasn't previewed for industry.
Areas included in the order beyond safety and security, per the White House:
Privacy: The government will prioritize supporting the development of privacy tools using cutting edge AI systems.
Equity and civil rights: Landlords, federal benefits program managers and federal contractors will be given guidance to keep algorithms from being used to exacerbate discrimination.
Innovation and competition: Small developers and entrepreneurs will be provided technical assistance and resources to commercialize AI, and the Federal Trade Commission will be encouraged to exercise its authorities to promote competition.
Reality check: The Biden administration recognizes executive orders can't replace legislation and continues to call on Congress to pass a law governing AI safety.” [Axios]
The U.A.W. is said to have a tentative deal with G.M., the last of the three large U.S. automakers to reach an agreement after a wave of strikes.
“The agreement with General Motors comes days after the United Automobile Workers union announced tentative agreements with Ford Motor and Stellantis.”
Read more at Washington Post
Cornell sends police to Jewish center
As supporters of Israel gather at the Lincoln Memorial on Friday, an empty shabbat table symbolizes hostages taken by Hamas. Photo: J. Scott Applewhite/AP
“Cornell police are guarding a Jewish center on the Ivy League campus in Ithaca, N.Y., after antisemitic threats were posted on a discussion board yesterday.
The threats sent chills through Cornell's Jewish community, AP reports.
Cornell President Martha E. Pollack said that a ‘series of horrendous, antisemitic messages threatening violence to our Jewish community and specifically naming [the address of] the Center for Jewish Living ... was posted on a website unaffiliated with Cornell.’
‘Police will continue to remain on site to ensure our students and community members are safe,’ Pollack added. The FBI was notified.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul condemned the ‘disgusting & hateful posts.’
New York Attorney General Letitia James called the threats ‘absolutely horrific.’
In Russia yesterday, 60 people were detained after a crowd surrounded an airliner during an antisemitic riot over the arrival of a plane from Israel.
Hundreds of people stormed into the main airport in Russia's Dagestan region and rushed onto the landing field, chanting antisemitic slogans and seeking passengers arriving on a flight from Tel Aviv, AP reports.
Authorities closed the airport in Makhachkala, the capital of the predominantly Muslim region. Get the latest.” [Axios]
Presidential race
“Former Vice President Mike Pence dropped out of the 2024 presidential race on Saturday amid lagging poll numbers and financial challenges, pledging to help elect ‘principled Republican leaders’ moving forward. ‘After much prayer and deliberation, I have decided to suspend my campaign for president effective today,’ Pence said at an event in Las Vegas on Saturday. There was concern in Pence's campaign that he wasn't going to qualify for the third debate stage next month, one source told CNN. Former President Donald Trump responded to Pence's bowing out, saying ‘people in politics can be very disloyal.’ This comes as Trump continues to be the dominant candidate in the 2024 GOP presidential race, despite his legal troubles.” [CNN]
Mass shootings
“Cities across the US are reeling from another gruesome weekend of gun violence — just days after a 40-year-old went on two shooting rampages in Lewiston, Maine, on Wednesday night, killing 18 people. At least 580 mass shootings have been recorded this year across the country alone, and 11 were recorded over the weekend, according to the Gun Violence Archive. In Indianapolis, a Halloween party ended with one person killed and nine others injured when shots were fired Sunday. Separately, a shooting in Tampa, Florida, left two people dead and injured 16 others as hundreds of people were filing out of the bars and nightclubs. Over 1,000 miles to the north, at least 15 people were also shot Sunday morning on Chicago's west side. ‘Americans should not have to live like this,’ President Joe Biden recently said, calling on Congress to address the scourge of mass shootings in the US.” [CNN]
How the mass shooting in Maine impacted the deaf community
“The shooting deaths of four deaf people in Maine during the Lewiston rifle rampage last week that killed 18 people appears to be the worst-ever mass shooting affecting the deaf community, according to advocates. Among the dead are Steve Vozzella, Brian MacFarlane, Billy Brackett, and Joshua Seal, who were playing in a weekly cornhole tournament for deaf and hard-of-hearing people. Experts say the shooting was likely particularly traumatic for deaf and hard-of-hearing survivors because they might have not known to take cover when the gunshots first sounded, and would have struggled to know when the shooting ended or even whether nearby friends were alive. Read more
•Maine police were alerted weeks ago about threats from the mass shooting suspect.
•Lewiston area residents spent two days in lockdown, but the fear has lasted longer.” [USA Today]
People sign "I love you" at a vigil for the victims of Wednesday's mass shootings, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023, outside the Basilica of Saints Peter and Paul in Lewiston, Maine.
Matt Rourke, AP
Hurricane Otis
“At least 43 people have died after Hurricane Otis tore through Acapulco, Mexico, as a devastating Category 5 storm last week, the region's governor said Sunday. The popular tourist destination and its iconic beaches are in ruins after 80% of the area's hotels were severely damaged, according to the Mexican government's preliminary damage assessment. New satellite images capture the scale of destruction brought on by the storms' 165 mph winds. ‘This is a chaotic situation, a devastating scenario with unquantifiable damages.’ said Jorge Laurel, former president of the Acapulco Association of Hotels and Tourist Enterprises.” [CNN]
The U.S. will start punishing student loan servicers for making mistakes.
“Today: The Biden administration will announce it’s withholding $7.2 million from one servicer after it failed to send timely statements, leading to over 830,000 missed repayments.
Why it matters: The restart of student loan payments this month has been plagued by problems. Servicers told some borrowers they owed more than $10,000 a month.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Spurned by moderates and MAGA: How DeSantis’s coalition has deflated
After beginning the year widely viewed as the Republican with the best chance to build a winning coalition against Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s support has shrunk dramatically. Interviews with dozens of early state voters, pollsters and strategists show confidence eroding on both ends of the party spectrum.
Read the story at Washington Post
“Israel has deepened a war with Hamas with a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip that has no end in sight.
Nearly 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) away, Qatar has spent weeks trying to negotiate the release of hostages held by Hamas in the besieged Palestinian enclave, placing itself at the center of uncomfortable diplomacy.
Both moves carry huge risks.
Israel has vowed to wipe out Hamas in a battle that will lead to even heavier casualties on both sides. Already the bombardment of Gaza has killed thousands of Palestinians, displaced 1.4 million and stoked ire across the Middle East and beyond. The US and its allies worry the violence will ignite a regional conflict.
Qatar has been trying to help free hostages after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,400 people and taking more than 200 captive. Four have been released, but Israel’s decision to send troops and tanks into northern Gaza this weekend will complicate those efforts.
For the small but wealthy and influential Gulf state, casting itself as the Middle East’s indispensable go-between is also a political gamble. It’s been criticized by its neighbors for housing leaders of Hamas, which is designated a terrorist group by the US and European Union, and needs to deliver.
Back in Israel, some officials saw Hamas using the negotiations to buy time, aiming to release just a couple of people a week while demanding an extensive cease-fire and prisoner exchange. That assessment meant the focus shifted to a long-expected ground incursion in a campaign that could last anywhere from six weeks to six months.
That’s putting Israel’s long-resilient economy to the test, making its stocks the worst performers since fighting erupted.
At the same time, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under growing internal pressure to resign because of the security failure and his unwillingness to accept personal responsibility. But there’s little evidence so far he will.” — Sylvia Westall [Bloomberg]
People search through buildings destroyed by Israeli bombardments yesterday in southern Gaza. Photographer: Ahmad Hasaballah/Getty Images Europe
“President Xi Jinping is set to tighten his control of China’s $61 trillion financial industry as he gathers state leaders and top bankers to set the direction for the next five years this week in Beijing. China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong is expected to place the Communist Party’s ‘centralized and unified’ leadership and increased scrutiny over the sector above all other policy objectives.” [Bloomberg]
“US special representative for North Korea Sung Kim and his Chinese counterpart held talks over Washington’s concerns that Pyongyang is supplying arms to Russia and Beijing may be forcibly returning North Koreans in its territory. The discussion in a videoconference today could portend areas of discussion ahead of an expected summit next month between US President Joe Biden and Xi.” [Bloomberg]
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu inspect warplanes in Vladivostok on Sept. 16. Source: Russian Defense Ministry Press Service
“Allies of Colombian President Gustavo Petro lost control of all of the nation’s major cities in regional elections yesterday, signaling potential paralysis as new mayors clash with the government. The popularity of Petro, Colombia’s first leftist leader, has plummeted as he struggles to keep his political coalition together in congress.” [Bloomberg]
“Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles will visit the US and the UK in the coming week to push for faster progress on the AUKUS security partnership that would lead to Canberra buying nuclear-powered submarines from the US within a decade. The trip comes less than a week after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited the US and urged lawmakers to pass legislation needed for the deal to proceed.” [Bloomberg]
“The number of new fathers taking childcare leave has jumped a year after revisions to Japan’s paternity leave system, with one survey showing a doubling in the number of days taken off compared with last year. The program, which allows up to 52 weeks of paid time off, is the second-most generous among countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.” [Bloomberg]
“The US said cease-fire talks in Sudan have reconvened between the army and the Rapid Support Forces militia in a bid to resolve a months-long battle for control of the African nation.” [Bloomberg]
Deadly explosion off Nigeria points to threat posed by aging oil ships around the world
“Until early last year, a rusting, 46-year-old oil ship named the Trinity Spirit floated off the coast of Nigeria, pulling crude oil from the ocean floor. Then, last February, it exploded, killing at least five and collapsing into the ocean with 40,000 barrels of oil in one of the deadliest recent tragedies on an oil ship or platform. The Associated Press’ review of court documents, databases, and interviews with crew members reveals that the ship was in a state of near-total disrepair, and the systems meant to ensure its safe operation had gradually fallen away. Read more.
Why this matters:
The Trinity Spirit was part of a class of vessels that extract oil offshore and store it at sea. Unlike most ships, they stay in place and can linger at the same oil field for decades. They may be surveyed by in-country regulators or hired inspectors, but they operate outside the normal flow of shipping traffic and the safety and legal inspections that take place in port.
There has been little to no public explanation of what led to the Trinity Spirit’s explosion, though multiple Nigerian agencies had responsibility for overseeing the ship. The Trinity Spirit had been on the same oil field for more than two decades. According to the ship's maintenance operator, after the ship arrived in Nigeria, it was never brought to shore for major upgrades or repairs.
More than 30 of these ships are older than the Trinity Spirit and still operating around the world, according to AP’s review.” [AP News]
By David Leonhardt and Lauren Jackson
Good morning. We’re covering the crucial tunnel network under Gaza….
A Palestinian fighter in a Gaza tunnel last year.Mohammed Saber/EPA, via Shutterstock
A maze of tunnels
“There is a transportation network below Gaza, one that Israel is trying to destroy.
The network is made up of tunnels, where most Hamas fighters are likely living alongside stockpiles of weapons, food, water and, now, more than 200 Israeli hostages. Parts of the tunnels are large enough for vehicles to drive in them.
The Israeli military first launched an intense air attack targeting these tunnels and has now sent in ground troops to destroy them. Eliminating the tunnels would go long way toward breaking Hamas’s control over Gaza.
In today’s newsletter, we’ll explain why the tunnel network is so important — and why Israel will not have an easy time dismantling it.
‘The metro’
Tunnels have existed under Gaza for years. But after Israel withdrew its forces and settlers from Gaza nearly two decades ago, Hamas vastly expanded the underground network. Hamas has a long history of terrorist violence — both the U.S. and the European Union consider it a terrorist group — and the tunnels allow its members to hide from Israeli air attacks.
Israel created further incentive for tunnel construction by tightening the blockade of Gaza after 2007. The main rationale for the blockade was to keep out weapons and related material, but Israel’s definition is so broad that the blockade also restricted the flow of basic items. In response, Gazans have used the tunnels — which extend south into Egypt — to smuggle in food, goods, people and weapons. Some people refer to the hundreds of miles of tunnels as ‘the metro.’
(This story, by our colleagues Adam Goldman, Helene Cooper and Justin Scheck, has more details.)
Egypt’s government has also viewed the tunnels as a security threat. A decade ago, Egypt tried to destroy some tunnels along its border with Gaza, by dumping sewage into them and leveling houses that concealed entrances, as Joel Roskin, a geology professor at Bar-Ilan University in Israel, told our colleagues.
In the current war, Hamas will use the tunnels to hide and to attack Israeli soldiers from unexpected places. ‘By using the tunnels, the enemy can surround and attack us from behind,’ said Col. Amir Olo, the former commander of the elite Israeli engineering unit in charge of dismantling tunnels.
The civilian toll
The battle over the tunnels is a major reason that this war already has a high civilian death toll. More than two million people live above the tunnels — a layer of human life between many Hamas targets and Israeli missiles.
Hamas has hidden many weapons under hospitals, schools and mosques so that Israel must risk killing civilians, and face an international backlash, when it fights. Hamas fighters also slip above and below ground, blending with civilians.
These practices mean that Hamas is responsible for many of the civilian deaths, according to international law, as David French, a Times Opinion writer and former military lawyer, has explained. Deliberately putting military resources near civilians and disguising fighters as civilians are both violations of the laws of war.
António Guterres, the secretary general of the United Nations, has said Israel is also violating international law by continuing to bomb southern Gaza — partly to destroy tunnels — after first ordering people to evacuate there for safety.
While Israel says its strikes are precise, Palestinians say that the bombing has felt vengeful and unfocused. One man lost 45 members of his extended family. Overall, Hamas says, at least 8,000 people have died in the war, and the U.N. has confirmed the deaths of at least 2,360 children.
One issue is that bombs that hit tunnels can still kill civilians through a kind of aftershock. When bombs explode underground, buildings above can collapse into a crater. ‘The craters become mass graves,’ said Eyal Weizman, the director of Forensic Architecture, a research group.
Whatever the appropriate mix of blame between Israel and Hamas, the human toll has led to widespread criticism of Israel. And as its ground incursions continue, the toll will surely grow. The more than 200 hostages held by Hamas, likely in the tunnels, will also be at risk.
Soldiers in southern Israel.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times
Air, then ground
The first stage of Israel’s campaign against the tunnels has been its air war. The military has launched more than 7,000 airstrikes on Gaza since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that killed more than 1,400 Israelis. That air war continues, along with the ground operation.
Israel has dropped special bombs that don’t explode until after they have burrowed into the ground. Another type of weapon, called ‘sponge bombs,’ creates an explosion of hardening foam to seal off tunnels. If tunnel entrances are sealed, fighters can’t pop out of them in surprise attacks.
The ground operation allows Israel to take additional steps to demolish tunnels. An Israeli reservist soldier described one technique, called ‘purple hair,’ to our colleagues:
Israeli troops drop smoke grenades into a tunnel, and then watch for purple smoke to come out of any houses in the area. The smoke, the soldier said, signals that a house is connected to the tunnel network and must be sealed off before soldiers descend into the tunnels. The smoke moves like strands of hair throughout the tunnel system, he said.
This description helps make clear why urban warfare tends to be so deadly. ‘It will be bloody, brutal fighting,’ said Gen. Joseph L. Votel, the former leader of U.S. military operations in the Middle East.” [New York Times]
SPORTS
“Sunday football: The San Francisco 49ers lost to the Bengals, their third straight defeat after a 5-0 start to the season.
Injury: The Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins will undergo tests today to confirm a possible Achilles’ tendon tear from the team’s win over the Packers.
Soccer: The U.S. women’s team beat Colombia 3-0 in a friendly and showcased a potential new star: Mia Fishel.” [New York Times]
Scientists discovered two “pristine” coral reefs deep in the ocean.
The largest reef is 800 meters long. (Schmidt Ocean Institute/AFP/Getty Images)
“Where? About a quarter of a mile beneath the sea’s surface off the Galápagos Islands in the Eastern Pacific, researchers announced this month.
Why they’re special: The cold-water reefs are probably thousands of years old, and can help scientists understand the ocean’s hidden diversity and deepest habitats.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Michigan Rescinded Contract Offer to Jim Harbaugh After Sign-Stealing Allegations
A deal was on the table to make the 59-year-old the Big Ten’s highest paid coach until allegations of wrongdoing in the football program scuttled talks
The Wolverines’ title chase this year had put Jim Harbaugh in line for a pay raise. PAUL SANCYA/ASSOCIATED PRESS
“The University of Michigan has rescinded a new contract offer for head football coach Jim Harbaugh in the wake of a sign-stealing scandal that has rocked one of the favorites to play for college football’s national championship, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The move is the first sign that the school may be hesitant about its future relationship with the famed coach who revived its football program and is frequently cited as a candidate for jobs in the National Football League. Harbaugh’s pay had been cut during the pandemic, but he was given a new contract just last year after bringing the team back to national prominence.
The Wolverines’ title chase this year put him in line for another raise. Michigan recently had made an offer that would have made Harbaugh the highest-paid coach in the Big Ten, before the school pulled it once the sign-stealing allegations rocked the school, the person said.
A spokesman for the athletic department said the school, athletic department and personnel—which would include Harbaugh—don’t comment on employment contracts until they are completed and fully executed.
The NCAA is investigating whether Michigan executed a scheme to illegally steal opponents’ play-calling signs. On Oct. 20, Michigan suspended a football staff member named Connor Stalions after a report that the NCAA was investigating the school for allegedly violating rules that ban teams from in-person scouting of future opponents.
The university’s pullback from contract negotiations casts doubt on Harbaugh’s future at Michigan, even as he has led the Wolverines to an 8-0 record, a No. 2 ranking and favorite status at sportsbooks to win a national championship.
Harbaugh, 59, returned to his alma mater in 2015 with great fanfare. The coach, who had played as a quarterback at Michigan, had thrived while leading teams both in college and the NFL and was hailed as the great hope to restore the once-powerful program. Michigan’s last national title came in 1997, when the Wolverines were crowned champion in the AP Poll while Nebraska won the coaches’ poll. Harbaugh got closer than ever in recent seasons when he led Michigan to back-to-back berths in the College Football Playoff.
Jim Harbaugh has led the Michigan Wolverines to an 8-0 record this season. PHOTO: MICHAEL SPOMER/CSM/ZUMA PRESS
That run of success has included consecutive wins over nemesis Ohio State, which had won eight games in a row in the rivalry. The school’s offer of a new contract this fall meant it was willing to stick by the coach even after he faced potential discipline by the NCAA in connection with alleged recruiting violations.
Everything changed, though, when Michigan football faced yet another firestorm. After the sign-stealing allegations broke, Harbaugh said in a statement: ‘I do not have any knowledge or information regarding the University of Michigan football program illegally stealing signals, nor have I directed staff members or others to participate in an off-campus scouting assignment.’
Subsequent media reports alleged that Stalions bought tickets to more than 30 games of Michigan’s future opponents over the past three years. ESPN also reported that there was evidence that at one game, someone sitting in the seat bought by Stalions held his smartphone up and appeared to film the home team’s sideline the entire game. NCAA rules prohibit any attempts to record the signals opponents use to communicate plays. Stalions hasn’t commented on the allegations.
Even before the sign-stealing allegations caused an uproar in the college football world, Harbaugh had been under fire. The NCAA already had been investigating him for alleged recruiting violations in 2021, leading to Michigan self-imposing a three-game suspension on the coach to start this season. The case remains open in part because the NCAA and the school couldn’t agree on a negotiated resolution.
It isn’t clear when the situation will be resolved, but given the typical NCAA process, it could be next year.
Both the recruiting and sign-stealing allegations could be problematic for Harbaugh under an NCAA rule that says a head coach is ‘presumed to be responsible for the actions of all institutional staff members who report, directly or indirectly, to the head coach.’ A violation of that rule can be a Level I infraction, according to the NCAA, the most serious kind.
The most severe penalty for a coach, for repeat or aggravated violations, can include suspension from coaching at his current and any other NCAA school for a period of time.
Harbaugh is at the pinnacle of his college coaching career, having led Michigan to a 33-3 record in the past 2½ seasons, including two consecutive Big Ten Conference titles. He is in his ninth season as head coach at Michigan, where he was a star in the 1980s under legendary coach Bo Schembechler.
In 2020, however, Harbaugh was at a low point. After Michigan struggled to a 2-4 record during the pandemic-shortened season, he agreed to a halving of his base salary to $4 million.
The contract was laden with incentives, however, and the Wolverines’ strong 2021 season earned Harbaugh $2 million in bonuses. He said he and his wife planned to donate the money to athletic-department employees whose salaries were reduced in the financial crunch of the pandemic….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
FIFA bans Spain’s Luis Rubiales over unwanted kiss at World Cup
“Rubiales was banned for three years for violating FIFA’s disciplinary code. He had forcibly kissed soccer star Jenni Hermoso during the on-field celebration after Spain won the women’s World Cup in August. Rubiales can appeal his banishment.”
Read more at Washington Post