The Full Belmonte, 10/25/2023
Rep. Tom Emmer drops out hours after becoming the latest Republican pick for speaker
“Emmer (R-Minn.), the House majority whip and the third Republican speaker pick since the ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), had been elected as the GOP nominee on an internal ballot earlier Tuesday. However, it became clear that he could not attract a majority vote on the full House floor because of Republican holdouts in the narrowly divided chamber.”
Read the story at Washington Post
Speaker saga
“House Republicans selected Rep. Mike Johnson as their next speaker nominee in a secret-ballot vote Tuesday night after Rep. Tom Emmer dropped out of the race earlier in the day — just hours after he was selected as the GOP's third nominee. Lawmakers will head to the House floor today to vote, but there is still uncertainty over whether the Louisiana lawmaker can secure the 217 votes needed to win the gavel. ‘Democracy is messy sometimes, but it is our system,’ Johnson said Tuesday evening. ‘The intention is to go to the House floor tomorrow and make this official. So we will be doing that,’ he added. For more than three weeks, the GOP conference has so far struggled to unite behind a successor to Rep. Kevin McCarthy following his ouster.” [CNN]
In courtroom faceoff, Michael Cohen says he was told to boost Trump’s asset values ‘arbitrarily’
“It was a fraught face-to-face encounter between Donald Trump and the now-disbarred lawyer who once pledged to “take a bullet” for him. Now, Michael Cohen is a key figure in New York Attorney General Letitia James’ lawsuit alleging that Trump and his company duped banks, insurers and others by giving them financial statements that inflated his wealth.” Read More at AP News
Hurricane Otis
“Hurricane Otis has weakened to a Category 4 storm after making landfall early today near Acapulco, Mexico, as a life-threatening Category 5 hurricane. Forecasters have warned it could be a "nightmare scenario" for Mexico's southern coast as it threatens to cause catastrophic damage with destructive winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge. Forecasts show Otis is expected to rapidly weaken later today as it presses inland and over southern Mexico’s higher terrain. Additionally, rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches are expected in parts of the region through the end of the week, with some areas seeing up to 20 inches of rain. Meteorologists caution this could potentially cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.” [CNN]
Immigration
“Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing the Biden administration for allegedly cutting razor wire at the US-Mexico border. Federal agents, the Republican said in the lawsuit, implemented a policy in late September that called for the destruction of the wire, which he claims undermined the state's border security. The suit, filed in the Western District of Texas, marks the latest chapter of the legal battle between the state and the Biden administration over border security during a migration surge that is straining local and federal resources. Last month, Border Patrol agents apprehended more than 200,000 migrants crossing the US-Mexico border, the highest total during a one-month period this year.” [CNN]
H-1B Visa Program Changes Aimed at Stopping Applicants From Gaming Lottery
Biden administration proposal would also allow foreign entrepreneurs to sponsor themselves for visas
The H-1B visa is one of the few that allow foreign employees to eventually become U.S. permanent residents and citizens. PHOTO: ETIENNE LAURENT/SHUTTERSTOCK
“WASHINGTON—The Biden administration is proposing major changes to the H-1B visa program for high-skilled foreign professionals, after the government found earlier this year that companies had colluded to try to increase their chances of winning a coveted visa.
The proposal, published by the Department of Homeland Security in the Federal Register on Monday, would revise how the H-1B visa lottery is run.
Right now, applicants who have an eligible job offer in the U.S. but need a visa to start working can submit an entry into the lottery, and at the end of that entry window, roughly 85,000 visa recipients are selected at random. In recent years, though, the government found evidence that individual applicants were submitting as many as 10 entries into the lottery to increase their chances of winning. Many of those applicants, moreover, were being sponsored by the same handful of small, little-known tech companies.
The growth in this practice was so rapid that entries to the lottery last year hit more than 780,000, up from 270,000 three years earlier, when the new application process took effect.
Under the proposed new process, each person applying for a visa will be weighed equally, no matter how many entries they submit.
Since its creation in 1990, the H-1B visa has served as the primary way companies can hire foreign employees with college degrees, particularly international students educated in the U.S. Though the visa is temporary, it is one of the few—and for international students, often the only—visas that allow foreign employees to eventually become U.S. permanent residents and citizens.
Apart from the lottery changes, the Biden administration is also proposing, for the first time, to allow entrepreneurs to sponsor themselves for an H-1B visa. Until now, with narrow exceptions, professionals on these visas were required to be employees rather than owners of a company.
That change, if successful, would have a seismic impact on Silicon valley, where many of the people launching new tech startups are foreign-born and have few or no long-term options to remain in the country, typically after coming here for college.
Other changes are also intended to make the visa more accessible. For example, the government is proposing to broaden the definition of who can qualify for an H-1B visa outside the lottery process. For example, university researchers and staff at nonprofit hospitals don’t need to compete for visas—they simply receive them if they qualify. Under the broadened definition, someone who is employed at a for-profit hospital but works extensively with a university would also qualify.
The proposal also codifies a practice known as “prior deference,” which means visa officers should approve an H-1B renewal if the applicant has previously been approved to work on a visa for the same job. The Trump administration had done away with that practice, and as a result both processing times and denials of H-1Bs soared. Should the policy be completed as a federal regulation, it would be much tougher for a future president to undo….” Read more at Wall Street Journal
The USS Carney guided missile cruiser, which was operating in the northern Red Sea, shot down four Iranian-provided cruise missiles last week, according to people familiar with the episode.
PHOTO: U.S. NAVY
Iran-backed militias are staging attacks as the U.S. supports Israel.
“Last week, the Tehran-supported groups launched at least a half dozen military drone and rocket attacks, U.S. officials said, after six months of what appeared to be an undeclared truce. In Yemen, Houthis fired five Iranian-provided cruise missiles and launched about 30 drones toward Israel. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that Washington would react ‘swiftly and decisively’ if Iran or its proxies attack U.S. personnel. Meanwhile, the U.N. Relief and Works Agency said that without additional fuel, its humanitarian aid in Gaza would stop. Six hospitals in the enclave closed due to a lack of fuel, the WHO said. Israel has said it will not let fuel in, fearing Hamas and other militant groups will divert it for military purposes.” [Wall Street Journal]
UN running out of fuel in Gaza
The war had a brutal impact on Gaza's children. Source: Reuters
“The main UN agency in Gaza says it will run out of fuel tonight, amid increasing calls for "humanitarian pauses" between Israel and Hamas to get more humanitarian aid into the enclave. When the UN agency for Palestinian refugees said it would soon have no fuel to operate at all, the Israeli military pointed to what it said were 500,000 litres of fuel stored in Gaza. "Ask Hamas if you can have some," it said on social media. The UN, whose secretary general Antonio Guterres is facing increasingly virulent criticism from Israel, also said more than a third of hospitals in Gaza are shut. Those which are still working are on the brink of cancelling life-saving treatment, reports our correspondent in Gaza Rushdi Abualouf. Shelling has continued in Gaza, including the southern city of Khan Younis, with Israel saying its strikes targeted Hamas infrastructure, including tunnels and weapons sites.
•The latest: Israel Defense Forces say it killed Hamas divers attempting to infiltrate Israel by sea. Follow our updates live.
•Children of Gaza: My colleague Fergal Keane has been looking into the impact of the war on children in the enclave. The territory's Hamas-run health ministry says more than 2,300 children have been killed since 7 October. Watch his report.
•Fears of escalation: There are still concern that the conflict could expand, our correspondent in Lebanon Hugo Bachega reports. Syrian state media says eight soldiers were killed by Israeli air strikes in Daraa overnight.” [BBC]
Continued Escalation
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (right) shakes hands with French President Emmanuel Macron as they hold a joint press conference in Jerusalem on Oct. 24.Christophe Ena/Pool/AFP via Getty Images
“Israel launched more than 400 strikes against alleged Hamas targets in Gaza overnight, killing dozens of militants, including three deputy commanders, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on Tuesday. Of the infrastructure destroyed, Israel said it collapsed a tunnel that allowed Hamas to enter the territory from the sea and struck command centers based in mosques. The assault followed another wave of Israeli strikes that the IDF claimed hit 320 militant targets in Gaza the day before.
According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, more than 700 Palestinians were killed during the overnight strikes—the highest 24-hour death toll since the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7. If confirmed, that would bring the total number of Palestinians killed to almost 5,800 people, including around 2,360 children. Around 1,400 Israelis have been killed, and Hamas is holding more than 200 people hostage, having only released four people thus far.
As strikes escalate and Israel prepares for a ground invasion, the United Nations is asking Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to allow more aid into Gaza. The World Health Organization (WHO) warned on Tuesday that nearly two-thirds of all health facilities in the Gaza Strip, including 12 out of 35 hospitals, are no longer functioning. And the few dozen aid trucks that have passed through Egypt’s Rafah border crossing since Saturday only represent a minute fraction of the total assistance that residents in Gaza require.
‘We are on our knees asking for that sustained, scaled up, protected humanitarian operation,’ said Richard Brennan, WHO’s regional emergency director for the Eastern Mediterranean region.
But Western leaders have been careful to toe the line between backing Israel’s right to defend itself and advocating for humanitarian relief in Gaza. On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron met with Netanyahu and Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Jerusalem to reiterate Paris’s support for the IDF while urging Israel not to fight ‘without rules.’ He also stressed that releasing all hostages ‘without any distinction’ is the West’s primary goal, warned against Israeli actions that could widen the conflict beyond its borders, and urged a ‘decisive relaunch’ of the peace process.
Among his suggestions, Macron proposed expanding the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, an 80-plus member organization created in September 2014 to combat the Islamic State, to target Hamas operations. Israel is not a member of the international coalition, and Macron did not specify how he thinks the U.S.-led bloc should get involved.
The European Union as a whole remains fragmented in its approach to the conflict. On Monday, EU foreign ministers failed to pass an agreement calling for a ‘humanitarian pause’ to allow more aid into the region—despite U.N. chief António Guterres calling for an immediate humanitarian cease-fire. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also urged an end to the fighting on Tuesday to prevent a worsening ‘humanitarian catastrophe’ in Gaza.” [Foreign Policy]
“You’re fired. After months of speculation, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu officially found himself on the chopping block on Tuesday. China fired the top-ranking general mere days before he was expected to host foreign defense leaders at the Beijing Xiangshan Forum from Oct. 29-31. Li had been noticeably absent from the public eye for the past two months, sparking early speculation of his firing far before Beijing made it official.
Li is not the first senior Chinese officer to be sacked this year. In July, then-Foreign Minister Qin Gang was removed from office after disappearing three weeks earlier under suspicious circumstances. Both Li and Qin were also stripped of their state councilor titles on Tuesday.
Removing top officials is far from an earth-shattering event in Beijing’s political playbook, argued FP’s James Palmer in China Brief following Qin’s removal. Yet it could hurt China’s diplomatic relationships. ‘It should be a reminder of just how fraught the party’s internal politics are, and why foreign officials or businesspeople investing time and effort in any single Chinese official is so risky,’ he wrote.” [Foreign Policy]
“Ukraine’s military has formed a battalion of soldiers made up entirely of Russian citizens who want to fight against Vladimir Putin’s invasion. The Sibir battalion has brought together dozens of Russians and people from ethnic minorities in Russia who traveled via third countries because they wanted to join the Ukrainian army, according to officials at their training camp. Unlike volunteer groups such as the Freedom of Russia legion that have declared support for Ukraine, the soldiers are part of the regular Ukrainian army and expect to be sent into battle very soon.” [Bloomberg]
“Women’s day off. Icelandic Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir took the day off from work on Tuesday in solidarity with tens of thousands of other women in the country who are striking to protest the gender wage gap and gender-based violence. The strike’s organizers called on women and nonbinary individuals to forgo all paid and unpaid labor on Tuesday and encouraged men to support the protest by taking on extra responsibilities.
The full-day strike is the first such action since 1975, when 90 percent of Iceland’s women skipped work and took a day off from domestic duties. That demonstration resulted in the passage of an equal pay law the following year—and one of the world’s first elected female heads of state in 1980.” [Foreign Policy]
“Fulfilling a promise. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan submitted Sweden’s NATO membership bid to the Turkish parliament for ratification on Monday—months after he originally promised Stockholm a place in the alliance. Ankara blamed the delay on Sweden’s alleged harboring of members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey labels as a terrorist organization.
Both Swedish and NATO officials applauded Erdogan’s move but must now wait on Turkey’s parliament to approve the bill. Erdogan’s green light, though, signals that Stockholm’s application is likely to pass. Once Turkey dots the i’s, Hungary will be the last NATO member that needs to sign off on Sweden’s bid; membership requires unanimous approval from all 31 nations. However, Budapest has signaled that it will follow Turkey’s lead.” [Foreign Policy]
“It’s survival of the fittest—er, loudest—in New Zealand’s streets as music enthusiasts battle to have the clearest and noisiest speaker systems. Locals in Porirua are begging authorities to crack down on the subculture’s pastime, in which people deck their cars in speakers and sirens that would put the country’s emergency warning system to shame and blast popular tunes through them. Evidently, remixed versions of Canadian pop star Céline Dion’s songs are particularly common. I guess there’s only so many times you can hear ‘My Heart Will Go On’ before the so-called Queen of Power Ballads loses her appeal.” [Foreign Policy]
”The top executives of Delta Air Lines and United Airlines are warning that legislation pending in Congress would devastate popular loyalty programs. The bipartisan proposal aims to save consumers money by forcing more competition in the lucrative credit card payments processing business. If enacted, the airlines contend, it would result in “unbelievable” consumer backlash given the effect on rewards programs. ‘This would kill rewards programs,’ United CEO Scott Kirby said.” [Bloomberg]
“California suspended General Motors’s Cruise unit from operating driverless vehicles in the state, saying they’re not safe for public roads and that company officials misrepresented the details of an accident with a pedestrian. The decision by the California Department of Motor Vehicles took effect immediately on Tuesday, and the agency said there’s no set length for the suspension.” [Bloomberg]
The GM Cruise Photographer: Bloomberg
“Microsoft, Palantir Technologies and Abercrombie & Fitch are among a small but increasing number of US businesses offering menopause benefits, with women most likely to be affected now representing 20% of the female workforce. Employers are stepping in as menopause-related loss of productivity and medical expenses are costing the US economy $26.6 billion a year.” [Bloomberg]
Baby boomers are aging. Their kids aren’t ready.
Pete Gamlen for Vox
“Baby boomers — those born between 1946 and 1964 — are reaching the period of life when, statistically, they need some form of care. This means many of their children (who are primarily millennials but also Gen X-ers and Gen Z-ers) are rapidly becoming caretakers, and are facing financial, career, and emotional strain.
The lowdown: Someone turning 65 today has a 70 percent chance of needing long-term care at some point. Boomers are living longer, but are still vulnerable to conditions like Alzheimer’s disease, meaning they will need care for more years than previous generations. Here’s what that means for the younger generations:
By 2030, the US will, for the first time, have more residents over 65 than children. While baby boomers were once the ones with aging parents, their circumstances were not the same as those their children face today. ‘Baby boomers are such a huge generation demographically, and they also had smaller families than their predecessors,’ senior correspondent Anna North told me. ‘So there are fewer young and middle-aged people available today to care for each older person.’
The physical demands, medical bills, and logistics of caretaking create an immense amount of pressure for millennials. Some caretakers must put their career aspirations on hold while also finding ways to generate the income needed to afford their parents' care. Others put off having children of their own, or face the added burden of caring for young children and their parents at the same time.
There’s no magic bullet. However, that doesn’t mean the situation is hopeless. Americans need to be more willing to talk to their family members about caregiving, and they need to call for policy reforms that make paid leave and Medicaid eligibility more accessible.
Caregivers say the time they spent with their parents was invaluable. ‘It’s difficult, but it’s also good,’ said John Adeniran, who, along with his wife, cares for his mother, who has Alzheimer’s disease, and a 5-month-old daughter. ‘There’s so much beauty that still comes from this experience.’
The stakes: It may be too late for many millennials for the policies around caregiving to change, but there’s hope younger generations can learn from the current crisis and create better structure and support for caregiving in the future.
‘I think the question for the future is whether we can improve our structures of care as a society so that people are more supported as they age,’ Anna told me. ‘If we can figure that out, maybe Gen Z and their elders won't be in the same situation in a few decades.’”
Check out Anna’s full piece here. [Vox]
Elsa/Getty Images
Snakes alive, indeed
“Playoff baseball possesses a unique tension. Postseason hockey is the closest kin, but the slower pace of baseball — even in the sport’s new speed era — lets the drama sit like a dense fog. Fans, players and objective observers all just live in it. Soak it up.
The tension was substantial last night in Philadelphia for Game 7 of the NLCS. And the road team, the upstart Diamondbacks no one expected to be here, absorbed it and thrived. The home team, the Phillies who’d looked unstoppable in Citizens Bank Park a week ago, shrank.
Just like that, we have our World Series: Rangers vs. Diamondbacks. Takeaways from last night’s slow-moving shocker:
Arizona’s 4-2 win is the most impressive of this postseason, with apologies to the Rangers’ effort Monday. Texas beat the brakes off Houston; the Diamondbacks sapped the Phillies’ strength and made it their own, persevering with relentless pressure the home team could not withstand.
There is only massive disappointment for a Phillies team that looked charmed early in this series. Philadelphia held series leads of 2-0 and 3-2 and failed to win Games 6 and 7 at home. History, and Phillies diehards, will not remember this kindly. It will be difficult to forget Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, two $300 million+ players, going a combined 0-8 last night and each flying out with two men on, down two runs, in the seventh. The game was essentially over at that point.
I do hope we can fully abandon the push from earlier in the playoffs to change the format. Yes, both World Series participants are Wild Card teams, but this was tremendous baseball. Two league championship series going seven games. Two teams absolutely earning every win. Are the Diamondbacks and Rangers not deserving? Bollocks to anyone saying no.
Texas is the early World Series favorite. Game 1 is Friday at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.” [The Athletic]
Actor Richard Roundtree has died.
Actor Richard Roundtree, pictured around 1972. (Michael Ochs Archives/Getty Images)
“How we’ll remember him: As the title character in the 1970s “Shaft” action movies, which launched him to stardom. He went on to appear in over 100 films and TV shows.
What we know: Roundtree died yesterday after ‘a brief battle with pancreatic cancer,’ his manager said. He was 81.”
Read this story at Washington Post