The Full Belmonte, 10/24/2022
Test scores' record plunge
Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios
“Test scores known as the Nation's Report Card, out this morning, show the largest math declines ever recorded for fourth- and eighth-graders.
Math scores declined for those grades in nearly every state and district between 2019 and 2022, according to the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) results.
During those COVID years, reading scores also fell in most states, according to the Education Department, which released the scores.
Why it matters: COVID and the resulting school closures spared no state or region. The pandemic resulted in historic learning setbacks for America's children, erasing decades of academic progress and widening racial disparities, AP reports.
Between the lines: Reading scores dropped to 1992 levels. Nearly four in 10 eighth-graders failed to grasp basic math concepts.
Not a single state saw a notable improvement in average test scores.
Peggy Carr, commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics, a branch of the Education Department, told AP: ‘In NAEP, when we experience a 1- or 2-point decline, we're talking about it as a significant impact on a student's achievement. In math, we experienced an 8-point decline.’
Researchers think of a 10-point gain or drop as equivalent to roughly a year of learning.
By the numbers: The average math score for fourth-graders fell five points since 2019 — from 241 to 236, the Education Department said.
Eighth-graders dropped eight points in math, from 282 to 274.
In reading, average scores for both grades fell three points — from 220 to 217 for fourth grade, and from 263 to 260 for eighth grade.
What's next: The ‘devastating’ findings ‘raise significant questions about where the country goes from here,’ The New York Times reports.” Read more at Axios
“The Trump Organization's criminal tax fraud trial kicks off today in New York. Former President Donald Trump is not a defendant in the case and is not expected to be implicated in any wrongdoing, but if convicted, the Trump Organization would face maximum fines of $1.6 million -- the most allowed under New York state law. With the jury selection beginning today, it's a symbolic moment following years of investigations against Trump's real estate business. Two of Trump Organization entities are charged with nine counts of tax fraud, grand larceny and falsifying business records in what prosecutors allege was a 15-year scheme to defraud tax authorities by failing to report and pay taxes on compensation provided to employees. A possible plea deal was discussed, but Trump and his team rebuffed it, partly due to the potential political impact it could have of admitting any guilt.” Read more at CNN
“Stealthy new COVID variants, low vaccination rates and mixed messaging over the state of the pandemic threaten to thwart the Biden administration's efforts to contain a wintertime surge, Axios' Adriel Bettelheim and Tina Reed report.
Why it matters: The pandemic has largely become background noise to a crisis-fatigued public — even as new strains show the ability to topple our best defenses. And there's still confusion over such basics as what it means to be ‘fully vaccinated.’
Biden administration officials are warning there's trouble ahead, while touting progress in knocking down new cases and hospitalizations.
They're also trying not to trigger voter frustration over the persistent health crisis just weeks before the midterm elections.
Bottom line: ‘Right now it’s looking good,’ said Peter Hotez, dean at the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. ‘But we have to be cognizant the train is coming down the tracks.’” Read more at Axios
RSV
“A common respiratory virus known as RSV is spreading at unusually high levels in the US and is overwhelming children's hospitals. Symptoms may look like a common cold and include a runny nose, decreased appetite, coughing, sneezing, fever and wheezing, according to the CDC. But in some children, especially young infants, RSV can be dangerous, leading to dehydration, breathing trouble and serious illnesses. The CDC does not track hospitalizations or deaths for RSV as it does for the flu, but it said last week there has been a rise in RSV cases in many parts of the country. Several children's hospitals told CNN that they've been ‘overwhelmed’ with these cases at a time of the year when it's unusual to have a surge of RSV patients.” Read more at CNN
“Twitter is the only social-media stock that hasn't cratered this year. But all signs point to ugly finances ahead, Axios' Sara Fischer writes.
Why it matters: Twitter's dramatic deal with Elon Musk has overshadowed its business weakness. But when you pull back the curtain, Musk couldn't have picked a worse time to overpay.
Employees told Axios that inside Twitter, despite best efforts to operate business as usual, the takeover saga has made it hard to discuss long-term deals with clients and vendors.
‘People are just exhausted,’ a Twitter employee told Axios. ‘It can be conflicting because as a shareholder you’re happy but as an employee, there's a lot of uncertainty.’
The drama is sapping morale, especially after a Washington Post report suggesting Musk plans to cut up to 75% of Twitter's workforce.
‘I just think it's become a place where there is a lack of investment in consistent leadership,’ Leslie Miley, a former engineering manager, says on the latest episode of our podcast, How it Happened: Elon Musk vs Twitter.” Read more at Axios
“Bob Woodward and Donald Trump are butting heads after the journalist released audio of interviews he did with Trump in 2019 and 2020 in his new audiobook, The Trump Tapes. The former president says he will sue because the tapes belong to him and he needs to be compensated for their sale.” Read more at NPR
“Starting today, a group of 16 researchers will spend the next nine months studying unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), also known as UFOs, as part of a team for NASA.” Read more at NPR
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
“Pollsters are making changes to try to improve their accuracy, after significantly understating GOP support in the past two presidential elections, The Wall Street Journal's Aaron Zitner reports (subscription):
The Marist Poll is using text messages to invite hard-to-reach voters to take its surveys online.
Celinda Lake, the Democratic pollster, is experimenting with ways to build trust with voters: In a political poll in Montana, she asked respondents if they had seen ‘the Bobcats-Grizzlies game’ between the Montana State and University of Montana football teams.
Between the lines: Pollsters aren't sure how to fix the problem, since they haven't settled on the root cause of errors that left many Americans surprised by Donald Trump's victory in 2016, The Journal notes.” Read more at Axios
The prosecutor taking on Trump
Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Justice Department
“Jay Bratt — the Justice Department prosecutor building the classified-documents case against former President Trump — has spent his career going after spies, Blackwater guards, Chinese companies and some of Trump's close associates, Axios' Sophia Cai writes.
Why he matters: Jay Bratt, who leads DOJ's counterintelligence division, keeps a low profile but is at the center of an unprecedented investigation into a former — and potentially future — president.
‘You're talking about sitting on top of a volcano,’ said David Laufman, a partner at Wiggin and Dana who used to be chief of DOJ's counterintelligence division — and Bratt's boss.” Read more at Axios
“A Vermont town’s water superintendent resigned after admitting that he had been lowering fluoride levels for more than a decade.” Read more at New York Times
Tucker Carlson's irate call to GOP leader
Screenshot: Fox News
“Jonathan Swan reports that Tucker Carlson phoned Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), chairman of the House Republican campaign committee, with an ultimatum on Friday:
Either reveal which staff member took a swipe at Carlson's son, a Capitol Hill aide, in an article about internal House GOP politicking — or the Fox host would assume Emmer himself was to blame for the quote.
Why it matters: Just two weeks before the midterms, the chair of the NRCC — who is headed into a high-stakes leadership race if House Republicans win the majority — finds himself on the wrong side of the nation's most powerful right-wing TV host.
The inside drama illuminates the high stakes, divisions and power jockeying already underway as the GOP seeks to retake power.
The backstory: The source of the Fox News host's anger was a Daily Beast article, published early Friday, detailing the already vicious backroom jousting over leadership slots in a potential House Republican majority.
Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) — who employs Carlson's son, Buckley Carlson, 25, as communications director — is expected to face off against Emmer for House Republican whip, which would be the majority party's No. 3 leadership position.
The Daily Beast quoted an anonymous ‘GOP strategist’ as saying of Banks: ‘Deep down, he dies to be liked by the Establishment. He hires Tucker Carlson's son, a 24-year-old kid, to be his communications director.’
Emmer repeatedly asserted to Carlson that his office had nothing to do with the background quote. Carlson was unpersuaded.” Read more at Axios
Rishi Sunak is the front-runner to become the UK's next prime minister.
“Britain's third prime minister in seven weeks could be announced today as the UK Conservative Party MPs vote to elect their new leader. Former finance minister Rishi Sunak has emerged as the front-runner after Boris Johnson dramatically dropped out of the race. A fast-tracked process could see Sunak announced as prime minister at 9 a.m. ET today -- if he is able to secure the support of 100 MPs in the Conservative Party, leaving him unopposed in the contest. Sunak's only competition is Cabinet member Penny Mourdant, who came in third during the summer. The contest is being staged after Liz Truss quit the top job last week, becoming Britain's shortest-serving leader ever. Sunak came in second to Truss during the previous contest, but his repeated warnings about her economic plan were proven accurate in record time, resulting in a healthy number of backers within the party.” Read more at CNN
Boris Johnson led Britain until early last month.Toby Melville/Reuters
“Boris Johnson pulled out of the race to become Britain’s prime minister, making his former finance minister, Rishi Sunak, the favorite.” Read more at New York Times
Hurricane Roslyn
“Hurricane Roslyn made landfall in west-central Mexico on Sunday, flooding roads and damaging buildings along the country's Pacific coast. The hurricane has since weakened rapidly to a tropical storm but left widespread destruction from the high winds and downpour. Winds whipping up to 120 mph and swells generated by Roslyn have affected portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula, the National Hurricane Center said. ‘Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and Roslyn is forecast to become a tropical depression by this evening and dissipate tonight or early Monday,’ the hurricane center said on Sunday.” Read more at CNN
“Diwali, one of the most important festivals in Hinduism, begins today with colorful customs and celebrations. The holiday also has significance for Sikhs and Jains, and is celebrated not just in India, but in Nepal, Malaysia, Singapore and other countries with South Asian diasporas. It's generally celebrated for five days, with the biggest day being the third one. More and more major brands are recognizing the festival of lights, running ad campaigns and stocking products related to the holiday in the US. South Asian Americans who celebrate Diwali can now pick up fireworks from Costco, greeting cards from Hallmark and party decorations from Target. The proliferation of the ad campaigns and products, marketing strategists and business owners say, reflects just how much the South Asian population in the US has grown in recent years.” Read more at CNN
“Bomb warning | The US, UK and France rejected Russia’s allegation that Ukraine is preparing to use a ‘dirty bomb’ on its own territory, which involves conventional explosives spreading radioactive material. They urged Moscow not to use the claim as a pretext to escalate a war that’s entering its ninth month, saying the world would “see through” any attempt to do so.
Romanian Defense Minister Vasile Dincu resigned after public statements implying that Ukraine may have to cede territory to Russia in any talks aimed at ending the war.
Oil traders, tanker companies and the world’s most powerful governments are increasingly fixated on one question: can the supply chain handle the harshest sanctions on Russian exports in history?” Read more at Bloomberg
“Border shots | South Korea’s military fired warning shots after a North Korean vessel crossed a nautical border. Pyongyang responded by firing about 10 artillery shells less than two hours later toward a South Korean ship. The exchange adds to recent incidents along one of the world’s most militarized boundaries and comes as the US and South Korea began joint naval drills in the Yellow Sea.” Read more at Bloomberg
Xi Centralizes Power at 20th Party Congress
“Chinese President Xi Jinping tightened his grip on power and unveiled his top leadership at the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress over the weekend, finally revealing the results of months-long internal battles for political control.
Xi is now set to begin a third five-year term at the top, breaching the established custom of a two-term rule. It follows his years-long efforts to entrench power at a level not seen since the reign of Mao Zedong, including by abolishing presidential term limits and enshrining his own political thought in the party constitution.
With the naming of the Standing Committee—a powerful, elite group of seven politicians inside the larger Politburo, China’s key policy making committee—it is now clear who will be charged with executing this vision of absolute control.
Alongside Xi, six loyalists will now make up the Standing Committee. Four of the members are new; all are over the age of 60 and clear Xi allies. None of the men are expected to be threats to Xi’s potentially endless reign, since their various credentials and ages don’t position them to be his successor. In the larger Politburo, it will be the first time in more than two decades that a woman has not been named to the body.
Li Qiang, the party secretary of Shanghai, is now the country’s second-highest ranking official; his appointment, in particular, was seen as a clear sign that loyalty trumps all for Xi. The politician had presided over the city’s catastrophic COVID-19 lockdown that fueled food shortages and intense public anger.
A highly choreographed event, the Party Congress is meant to be seamless—but that was disrupted on Saturday, when officials escorted Hu Jintao, Xi’s predecessor, out of the room. Video footage of his removal sparked confusion online, although it was quickly censored and state media insisted he was ‘not feeling well’ and had been led out ‘for a rest.’
‘Hu’s unannounced and clumsy removal was either a cock-up—or a conspiracy,’ as FP’s James Palmer writes, with some possible explanations being a health crisis or the emergence of new information that rattled Xi.
‘But the third and most disturbing possibility is that it was planned, and we just witnessed Xi deliberately and publicly humiliate his predecessor,’ Palmer added. ‘This would be an extraordinary move but one that rammed home the message of Xi’s absolute power—something reinforced by the rest of the Party Congress.’” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Ethiopian forces advance. Ethiopian and Eritrean troops have seized Adwa, a town in Tigray, the Associated Press reported, further escalating a nearly two-year-long war that is estimated to have killed half a million people. Last week, they also captured the strategic Tigrayan city of Shire.
As the conflict deepens, Washington announced on Friday that it would offer Ethiopians living in the United States Temporary Protected Status for an 18-month period. ‘The United States recognizes the ongoing armed conflict and the extraordinary and temporary conditions engulfing Ethiopia, and DHS is committed to providing temporary protection to those in need,’ said U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Iran’s protests continue. Iran has pledged to sue the United States for what it claims is Washington’s ‘direct involvement’ in the unrest that has been roiling the country. Outside Iran, the protest wave has also drawn global support. Thousands of people marched through the streets of Washington, Berlin, and Los Angeles over the weekend in a display of solidarity.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Sudan’s deadly tribal clashes. More than 200 people were killed in just two days in Sudan after tribes clashed over a land dispute last week, officials announced on Sunday. It is one of the country’s worst incidents of tribal fighting in years.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Frictions increase | Brazil’s political tensions soared ahead of the Oct. 30 presidential runoff as Roberto Jefferson, a onetime lawmaker, got into a gun battle with police and threw a grenade at officers enforcing a court order to detain him. The incident comes as polls show presidential contenders Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in or near a technical tie.” Read more at Bloomberg
Jefferson in 2020. Photographer: Andressa Anholete/Getty Images
“South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said he’ll implement sweeping reforms in response to recommendations by a judicial panel that probed corruption during predecessor Jacob Zuma’s calamitous rule.” Read more at Bloomberg
October 24, 2022
By Nate Cohn
Chief political analyst
Good morning. As headlines shift in the weeks before the midterms, so do voters’ top concerns.
Voting in Atlanta last week.Gabriela Bhaskar for The New York Times
Mood swing
“Two weeks before November’s midterm elections, many voter surveys suggest Republicans are gaining momentum toward retaking one or both chambers of Congress.
Every major Senate race, except for Georgia’s, has been trending toward Republicans. There are even warning signs for Democrats in House districts in Oregon and Rhode Island where Republicans are rarely competitive. And now, more voters say they intend to vote for Republicans instead of Democrats for Congress in their districts.
In such a polarized country, understanding how one party can gain an advantage so quickly can sometimes be hard. In this case, the explanation is straightforward: It’s about the issues on the minds of voters.
Over the summer, the dominant headlines and resulting public debate were focused on issues that helped Democrats, like abortion, gun violence and threats to democracy. These issues helped Democrats stay highly competitive, despite President Biden’s low approval ratings and a tendency for the sitting president’s party to get drubbed in midterm elections.
But the spotlight on those matters is fading. Voters are less frequently citing them as top concerns while expressing worries about the economy, crime and immigration — issues that tend to favor Republicans.
In a New York Times/Siena College poll released last week, the share of voters citing the economy, inflation, crime or immigration as the ‘most important problem’ facing the country increased to 52 percent, up 14 points from a July version of the poll. The share citing the Democratic-friendly issues of abortion, democracy or guns dropped to 14 percent from 26 percent.
Attitudes in flux
Looking back, it’s easy to see why the mood of the nation’s electorate has shifted.
Our July poll was taken just a couple weeks after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Abortion was in the headlines nearly every day, as the nation grappled with the fallout and state bans went into effect. But relevant news developments have slowed, and that affects the public’s attention. Google searches for ‘abortion’ are now at about the level they were in early spring, before the ruling hit the headlines.
In last week’s Times/Siena poll, just 5 percent of voters said that abortion was the most important problem facing the country.
Other issues playing to Democrats’ strengths had similar trajectories. The House committee investigating the Capitol attack held eight public hearings in June and July, but only one after Labor Day (and it was on Oct. 13, after we conducted our most recent poll). Firearms restrictions are another core issue for Democrats that they often highlight in response to gun violence. The Times cataloged at least nine mass shootings in the two months before our July poll, including the horrific massacres at a grocery store in Buffalo and at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas. The spate of such mass shootings has, fortunately, faded as well.
Now on voters’ minds
Economic concerns are resurgent. The summer’s falling gas prices and somewhat optimistic inflation news have given way to renewed concerns about the rising cost of living and drops in the stock market.
Crime and immigration are in a somewhat different category. These are longstanding problems, but they don’t usually dominate the front pages alongside major news stories, save for mass shootings. Republicans have nonetheless elevated them as campaign issues, including with high-profile gambits like the decision by Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis to fly migrants to the liberal bastion of Martha’s Vineyard.
The swing voters
If you’re an ideologically consistent voter who agrees with your party on almost every issue, it can be hard to believe that other voters can be so fickle. But millions of Americans — perhaps even most of them — hold conflicting views. They can be drawn to different candidates or parties, depending on what they consider most important in a particular election.
Take abortion: If you believe the polls that 60 percent of Americans think it should be mostly legal, then a huge share of the voters who back Republicans in any given election must support legal abortion. These voters presumably back Republicans for another reason, whether it’s the economy and taxes or an issue like immigration. But if abortion is at the top of their minds, perhaps a sliver of them will defect.
In polling over the summer, some did. But in the more recent surveys, many of them came back to the Republican fold.
More midterms news
A shrinking white majority is a shared feature of the congressional districts held by Republicans who rejected Donald Trump’s 2020 defeat.
The Republican candidate for New York governor, Lee Zeldin, agreed to a single debate set for tomorrow against Gov. Kathy Hochul.
To win Ohio’s Senate race, Representative Tim Ryan is running as a Democrat who doesn’t have much in common with his party.” Read more at New York Times
World Series: Phillies vs. Astros
Houston Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel (left) and third baseman Alex Bregman celebrate early this morning after the Astros defeated the Yankees. Photo: Julia Nikhinson/AP
“The Houston Astros are making their fourth trip to the World Series in six years — and will meet an unlikely opponent:
Powered by Bryce Harper's big bat and a packed Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies clinched their first trip to the Fall Classic since 2009, when they lost in six games to the New York Yankees, Isaac Avilucea writes for Axios Philadelphia.
The intrigue: In what has been an exhilarating and improbable postseason run, the Phillies find themselves trying to join the few MLB teams to win a World Series after failing to win at least 90 games in the regular season.
This morning's Houston Chronicle
The Astros swept the Yankees and made it to their second consecutive World Series, three years after an illegal sign-stealing scandal made them baseball's most controversial team.
‘The Astros have thrilled and inspired us before. But they've never been this good — this unbeatable,’ Brian T. Smith writes for the Houston Chronicle.
What's next: The Phillies will square off against the Astros for Game 1 in Houston on Friday.
The Astros are the favorite to win the title.” Read more at Axios
Photo: Patrick Semansky/AP
Above: First Lady Jill Biden celebrates the Phillies win as she and President Biden land on the South Lawn after a weekend at their home in Rehoboth Beach, Del.
“Brady and Rodgers in disarray: Two of the N.F.L.’s best quarterbacks — Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers — find themselves mired in 3-4 starts early in the season. For Green Bay, it’s a disaster. For Tampa Bay, it leaves a recent Super Bowl champion wondering whether it can even make the playoffs.” Read more at New York Times
Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, right, and Packers counterpart Aaron Rodgers are both 3-4 through seven weeks of the 2022 season.Nathan Ray Seebeck, USA TODAY Sports
Why are activists throwing mashed potatoes on a Monet?
“Climate activists in Europe again splattered food at fine art in protest of fossil fuels. This time two activists splashed mashed potatoes on glass protecting a painting by 19th century French impressionist painter Oscar-Claude Monet at the Museum Barberini in Potsdam, Germany. Members of Last Generation, a German climate activist group, took credit Sunday for the stunt, which did not damage the painting. The incident comes a little over a week after two activists protesting fossil fuels in Britain went viral for splashing tomato soup on glass covering a Vincent Van Gogh painting at a museum. The activists then glued themselves to a wall.” Read more at USA Today
Last Generation protesters glued themselves to the wall after splattering the Monet art work with mashed potatoes.Last Generation
Biggest opening since summer
Dwayne Johnson in "Black Adam." Photo: Warner Bros. Pictures via AP
“Warner Bros.' ‘Black Adam’ got poor Rotten Tomato reviews (40% fresh), but moviegoers were kinder:
The film opened at $67 million, handing Dwayne Johnson his biggest box-office weekend as a leading man and launching the D.C. Comics character he spent a decade bringing to the big screen, AP reports.
It was the biggest opening weekend since ‘Thor: Love and Thunder’ debuted with $143 million in July.: Read more at Axios
Adam Lau/UC Berkeley
“Robots can do a lot of things, but they're not good at folding laundry. New research has helped scientists make a robot that can do it — but still, not as well as humans.” Read more at NPR
“A Washington State woman punched a bear ‘right in the nose’ while walking her dog and has lived to tell the tale.” Read more at NPR
“Lives Lived: All four of Louis Gigante’s brothers were mobsters. He chose a different path as a priest and a developer who helped revive the South Bronx. Gigante died at 90.” Read more at New York Times