The Full Belmonte, 10/23/2023
Two American hostages were freed from captivity in Gaza.
“On Friday: Illinois residents Judith and Natalie Raanan were released. They had been captured from Israel along with over 200 others on Oct. 7 by the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
On Saturday: The first few aid trucks from Egypt entered Gaza, where a humanitarian crisis is deepening amid relentless Israeli airstrikes.
What else to know: The Biden administration worked to slowIsrael’s expected invasion of Gaza, and violence along the Israel-Lebanon border is increasing fears of a wider conflict.”
Read this story at Washington Post
October 23, 2023
By David Leonhardt and Lauren Jackson
Good morning. We’re covering the latest from the Israel-Hamas war….
Families of hostages.Amit Elkayam for The New York Times
Waiting for an invasion
“For more than a week, an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza has seemed as if it might begin any day. Troops and tanks have crowded the border. Israel has ordered Gazans to evacuate south. The military has showered missiles on Hamas bunkers to weaken the group.
But no ground invasion has begun. Why the apparent delay?
One part of the answer is that Israel’s allies, led by President Biden, have asked for a pause, as our colleagues reported yesterday. Biden spent much of yesterday on calls with Benjamin Netanyahu and the leaders of several European countries.
Western leaders have made clear that they support Israel invading Gaza to destroy Hamas, after an Oct. 7 terrorist attack that killed more than 1,400 people, but the leaders also hope to shape the coming invasion in four main ways:
Hostages: The U.S. wants more time for hostage negotiations. On Friday, the U.S. secured the release of two American hostages, with Qatar’s help. Israel believes Hamas may release about 50 hostages who are citizens of another country as well as Israel, but a ground invasion could make hostage releases less likely.
Defense: Biden is worried about a wider regional conflict, potentially including Iran. American officials want more time to prepare for attacks from Iran-backed groups, which they believe will intensify after the invasion. The State Department has ordered some government employees and family members to leave the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, and the Pentagon is sending more missile defense systems to the region.
Aid: U.S. officials have stressed the importance of getting more food, water and medicine to Palestinian civilians in southern Gaza. Over the weekend, two aid convoys passed into the territory. On a call yesterday, Biden and Netanyahu agreed that ‘there will now be continued flow’ of humanitarian aid into Gaza, according to the White House.
Humanitarian aid arriving in Gaza. Samar Abu Elouf for The New York Times
Strategy: Biden has advised Israel to avoid the mistakes that the U.S. made after 9/11 — when, enraged after an attack, American officials pursued a war in Afghanistan (and later one in Iraq) with flawed strategies. And urban warfare in Gaza’s streets is notoriously difficult. U.S. officials hope Israel first takes the time to weaken Hamas through airstrikes and plan a successful campaign that minimizes civilian casualties, as our colleague Steven Erlanger said.
‘It’s been nearly a decade since ground troops went into Gaza in even a significant way,’ Steven pointed out.
In the rest of today’s newsletter, we walk through the latest information on the hostages that Hamas is holding, last week’s explosion at a Gaza hospital and more.
Gaza Hospital Explosion
The Associated Press, CNN and The Wall Street Journal each published video analyses this weekend concluding that the cause of the hospital explosion last Tuesday was a misfired rocket from Gaza, not an Israeli airstrike.
Many details are still unknown. Channel 4, a public television station in Britain, published an audio analysis that suggested the source of the explosion came from a different direction than the other analyses found.
U.S. intelligence officials have concluded that Israel was not responsible for the explosion. The officials are still trying to determine whether the cause was an errant Palestinian rocket.
Canadian and French officials also say Israel was not responsible and a Palestinian rocket likely was.
Despite controlling the area where the explosion happened, Hamas has produced no evidence to support its claims.
The U.S. says Gaza officials appear to have exaggerated the explosion’s toll when they announced 500 or more deaths. The true toll was ‘probably at the low end of the 100-to-300 spectrum,’ U.S. officials say.
Hostages
Rut Hodaya Perez, a 17-year-old Israeli girl held by Hamas, uses a wheelchair. Her sister worries she isn’t strong enough to survive captivity.
Other hostages require daily medicine. Their families don’t know if they are getting care, the BBC reports.
The families of the hostages in Gaza have set up a long Shabbat dinner table in Tel Aviv with challah, wine — and more than 200 empty chairs, CNN reports.
Haaretz has published a list of the hostages, with photos.” [New York Times]
Another co-defendant in Donald Trump’s Georgia trial pleaded guilty.
“Who? Kenneth Chesebro, a former lawyer for Donald Trump’s campaign. He pleaded guilty Friday to illegally conspiring to overturn Trump’s 2020 election loss in Georgia.
What’s next? Chesebro and Sidney Powell, another former Trump attorney who pleaded guilty Thursday, agreed to testify truthfully in the trials of their co-defendants, including the former president.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Nine new Republican candidates are running for speaker of the House.
“How we got here: House Republicans removed Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio as their speaker nominee on Friday after he failed to winenough votes for the third time.
What now? The party is expected to hear from the new crop of candidates tonight. It could pick its next speaker-designate as early as tomorrow.
Why it matters: Without a speaker, the House is unable to pass legislation, including President Biden’s requested $106 billion in funding for Israel and Ukraine.”
Read this story at Washington Post
© The Associated Press / Mariam Zuhaib | The Capitol in 2022.
House GOP members line up for the worst job in politics
“House Republicans are heading back to the drawing board this week.
The race for the Speakership is once again wide open after the conference voted Friday to drop House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).
House Republicans are set to meet behind closed doors for their candidate forum tonight at 6:30 p.m., and will move to an internal nomination election Tuesday at 9 a.m. By the Sunday deadline, nine candidates had thrown their hats in the ring.
They range from House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), the highest ranked candidate, who earned a key endorsement from former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, (R-Calif.) to Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who received votes for the Speakership from GOP defectors both during McCarthy’s 15-ballot Speaker race in January — and during Jordan’s three ballots last week.
The Hill’s Emily Brooks and Mychael Schnell break down what to know about each candidate. Notably, only two of the nine — Emmer and Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.) — voted to certify the results of the 2020 election.
Bottom line: None of the candidates this week is a household name known for House experience, legislating or party fundraising. Plus, a surprisingly large field wants to compete for what is clearly a difficult, often thankless — and precarious — job. And the large number of candidates suggests the process is not moving faster, as the House enters its third week without a Speaker and the government funding deadline moves closer.
Republican fears are swirling that Congress could be on the path to jamming through another trillion-dollar omnibus spending package in the months ahead amid stalled progress in both chambers to pass all 12 annual government funding bills.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas) on Sunday railed against the House’s struggle to elect a Speaker, reiterating what some of his fellow lawmakers have called ‘embarrassing.’
‘This is probably one of the most embarrassing things I’ve seen,’ McCaul said on ABC News’s “This Week,” noting that he’s serving his 10th term in Congress. ‘Because if we don’t have a Speaker of the House, we can’t govern. And every day goes by, we’re essentially shut down as a government.’
Meanwhile, former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) warned on “Fox News Sunday” that the House GOP conference poses a ‘very real danger’ of electing a Speaker and then in a few weeks going ‘back into the same mess,” adding that ‘they need to pick someone to get stability.’
The New York Times analysis: After Jordan falls, House Republicans ask who, and what, is next. A band of more mainstream Republicans brought down the hard-line conservative, but the GOP has hardly stemmed the chaos.
The Washington Post analysis: Threats couldn’t save Jordan. But Trump-era intimidation has had an impact.
The Wall Street Journal: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) tore the House GOP apart. He isn’t sorry.
THE STALEMATE IN THE HOUSE is forcing the Senate to pick up the legislative slack and take the lead on spending, which includes keeping the government funded. The Senate is also set to work up the White House’s $105 billion supplemental package that includes aid for Israel and Ukraine in their battles against Hamas and Russia, respectively. As The Hill’s Al Weaver reports, lawmakers are left with a time crunch, as they hope to get the work done before Thanksgiving without much help from across the Capitol complex, where funding legislation normally originates.
Some Republican senators say their party’s brand is suffering serious damage because of the failure of House Republicans to elect a new Speaker, and warn that the GOP’s image will take a major hit if Congress can’t move on must-pass legislation soon. The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports some senators are worried that political spectacle in the House is not only putting the slim House majority at risk but could also undermine their chances of winning back the Senate.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in an interview that aired Sunday on CBS’s “Face The Nation” that he hopes the House will settle the Speaker question ‘pretty quickly’ but wouldn’t put his backing behind any of the fresh batch of candidates.
‘Look, I’m not an expert on the House,’ McConnell said. ‘I have my hands full here in the Senate, and we’re going to do our job and hope the House can get functional here sometime soon.’” [The Hill]
Detroit synagogue leader
Samantha Woll, 40, was found outside her home in a neighborhood east of downtown Detroit.
Detroit Free Press
“Police are searching for a motive in the death of a Detroit synagogue leaderwho was found fatally stabbed in her home. The body of Samantha Woll, president of the board of the Isaac Agree Downtown Synagogue, was discovered with multiple stab wounds on Saturday morning. As investigators continue to probe for a motive, police chief James E. White said Sunday no evidence has surfaced suggesting the killing was motivated by antisemitism. Friends and family also gathered Sunday during a packed funeral service to honor her legacy. Police have not identified a suspect in the case, and it's still unclear what led to the killing.” [CNN]
Nashville police shooting
“Authorities in Tennessee are searching for the estranged son of Nashville's police chief as a suspect in the Saturday shooting of two suburban police officers. The suspect, John Drake Jr., is now wanted on two counts of attempted first-degree murder and is considered ‘armed and very dangerous.’ Metro Nashville Police Chief John Drake said that he was "shocked and deeply saddened" to learn that the suspect is his son. ‘Despite my efforts and guidance in the early and teenage years, my son, John Drake Jr., now 38 years old, resorted to years of criminal activity and is a convicted felon,’ the chief said. The officers, who have both been with the force for less than three years, are expected to recover from their injuries.” [CNN]
New Hispanic super PAC
President Biden with New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham in Albuquerque last year. Photo: Adria Malcolm/Bloomberg via Getty Images
“Three former members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus — including New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) — today are creating a new super PAC to get more Hispanic Democrats elected to Congress, Axios' Hans Nichols reports.
Why it matters: The battle for Congress in 2024 runs partly through districts with significant Hispanic populations.
The new group, BOLD America, is being launched by Lujan Grisham, as well as former Reps. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Calif.) and Filemon Vela (D-Texas).” [Axios]
Venezuelans picked an opposition candidate to challenge their president.
“Who? Conservative María Corina Machado, a 56-year-old industrial engineer and former lawmaker. She overwhelmingly won the opposition’s unofficial presidential primary yesterday.
The problem: She has been banned from holding public office for the past 15 years. If allowed to stand, she will face authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro in elections next year.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Ukrainian commandos.Nicole Tung for The New York Times
“Ukraine has stepped up commando raids on Crimea, aiming to weaken both its defenses and the morale of Russians living there.” [New York Times]
“Ukraine and Russia are girding for a winter of intense fighting, keenly aware that progress in the war may be of critical importance to ultimate victory.
With global attention focused on the deepening Israel-Hamas war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his forces needed to move ‘forward every day’ to help retain international support to defeat Russia’s invasion.
The same Middle East crisis is encouraging Russian President Vladimir Putin to dig in for the long haul. With the US and Europe distracted by events in Israel and Gaza, the Kremlin’s strategy is to wait for war fatigue to erode military support for Ukraine and allow Putin to hold on to territory his forces have seized.
Each leader faces serious risks.
Putin approaches presidential elections in March with most Russians feeling poorer in his heavily-sanctioned economy. What was supposed to be a quick victory has become a grinding war that shattered the Russian army’s invincible reputation.
While the result isn’t in doubt in the carefully-controlled vote, a major battlefield reverse for Putin would only intensify perceptions the invasion was a catastrophic mistake.
After Ukraine’s much-vaunted counteroffensive backed by billions in weapons from the US and its allies produced only modest gains in the summer, Zelenskiy’s under pressure to show Russia can be driven out. That requires his military to continue punching holes in entrenched Russian defenses even as weather conditions deteriorate.
It’s all playing out against a backdrop of economic pain in Europe that raises questions over more aid for Ukraine. Above all is the shadow of next year’s US presidential election, with continued support for Kyiv far less certain among Republican challengers to Joe Biden.
Zelenskiy and Putin know US support for Ukraine is potentially decisive. Both are betting on a second winter of war to make their case with American voters and ensure their political survival at home.” [Bloomberg]
A soldier in the frontline city of Avdiivka, Ukraine, on Oct. 17. Photographer: Ozge Elif Kizil/Anadolu/Getty Images
“Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s hopes of focusing the Middle East on economic development rather than old feuds is in tatters. As the world’s top executives are expected to flock to Riyadh for the latest edition of the Future Investment Initiative, the war between Israel and Hamas is bringing the region’s political fissures back to the forefront of everyone’s mind.” [Bloomberg]
“Argentina will hold a presidential runoff next month after Economy Minister Sergio Massa placed first in yesterday’s vote ahead of libertarian Javier Milei. The election will be a contest between two candidates who hold diametrically opposed views. Read our main takeaways from the ballot.” [Bloomberg]
“Foreign confidence in China’s economy is under pressure after the authorities carried out a series of arrests and announced an investigation into Foxconn Technology Group. State media said regulators are conducting tax audits and reviewing land use by the Taiwanese iPhone maker, while an executive and two former employees of WPP, one of the world’s biggest advertising companies, have been arrested.” [Bloomberg]
“The right-wing Swiss People’s Party scored one of its best results in national elections, capitalizing on public concerns over immigration. The most popular party for two decades, the SVP wants to limit the nation’s population, reinforce its neutrality — despite calls for a strong response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and cap the costs of the switch to sustainable energy.” [Bloomberg]
“Tensions over the South China Sea escalated today with China filing a diplomatic complaint, the Philippines summoning Beijing’s ambassador, and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordering a probe a day after vessels from both nations collided in the disputed waters.” [Bloomberg]
“South Korea is looking to African countries to secure graphite as China tightens its export controls over the key material used in electric-vehicle batteries.” [Bloomberg]
Behind the curtain: Wider war
President Biden and First Lady Jill Biden in Rehoboth Beach, Del., yesterday. Photo: Kent Nishimura/AFP via Getty Images
"Behind the Curtain" is a new column by Axios CEO Jim VandeHei and co-founder Mike Allen, based on regular conversations with White House and congressional leaders, CEOs and top technologists.
“Top U.S. officials tell us the threats of a war widening from the Gaza Strip are real and rising, forcing the Pentagon to rush additional weapons systems to the region and put more U.S. forces on higher alert for quick deployment.
This comes three short days after "Behind the Curtain" outlined five simultaneous global threats unnerving top U.S. officials: Israeli-Hamas, the Russia-China axis, North Korea, Iran's saber-rattling and weaponized fake videos hitting every battlefield.
Why it matters: Red-hot rhetoric by Israel and Iran — including publicly threatening to widen the war — has U.S. officials on edge.
‘It's quite a dangerous situation,’ a senior administration official told us. ‘It could all veer off the rails really quickly. The whole region could be in conflict.’
What we're hearing: This is a big reason President Biden and his war cabinet are using an elaborate carrot-and-stick strategy to slow Israel's invasion of Gaza. Bluntly, they need time to prepare for an Iranian escalation elsewhere, including getting more air defense systems to the region fast, sources tell Axios' Barak Ravid.
In an ominous appearance on ABC's ‘This Week,’ Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned of the ‘prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region.’
What's happening: The central concern is Iran and Iran-funded terrorist groups. But, capturing the complexity of this moment, officials are keeping close tabs on China to see if Beijing exploits the chaos.
Iran's foreign minister warned Israel that if Gaza strikes continue, ‘the region will go out of control.’
Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon stepped up cross-border attacks on Israel's north, per the Israel Defense Forces.
Israel ramped up bombing on three fronts — in Gaza, in southern Lebanon and a rare airstrike in the West Bank.
Israel's economy minister, Nir Barkat, told London's Mail on Sunday that if Hezbollah joins the war, ‘we will not just retaliate to those fronts, but we will go to the head of the snake, which is Iran.’
Between the lines: U.S. Cabinet officials are making it clear they fear escalation — and that the U.S. is ready to respond mightily to attacks on American troops.
Secretary of State Tony Blinken said on NBC's ‘Meet the Press’: ‘We expect that there's a likelihood of escalation ... by Iranian proxies directed against our forces.’
What to watch: The No. 1 indicator is how Hezbollah in Lebanon, on Israel's northern border, responds to Israel's expected offensive in Gaza in the south. ‘If Hezbollah decides to light up northern Israel ... it would be a serious adversary that would require serious resources from Israel to deal with,’ the senior official told Axios.
Second, the U.S. is urging Israel to ‘go in smartly. The biggest way to see this escalate, see other groups come in, is to go in in a reckless fashion,’ the official said. ‘It's impossible to say what they're going to do. The country is absolutely traumatized, as you would expect.’
The administration's three-part plan is sending a deterrence message to Hezbollah and other actors in the region, trying to get more aid to Palestinians faster, and emphasizing that the war is not with the Palestinian people but with Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip.
Behind the scenes: The U.S. is advising Israel to delay a ground offensive in Gaza in part to allow more hostage releases. Ten Americans are unaccounted for, and the U.S. believes a significant number are hostages.
The U.S. believes Israel ‘would struggle in a two-front war and that such a conflict could draw in both the United States and Iran, [Hezbollah's] main supporter,’ the N.Y. Times reports.
Barak is told another huge issue is getting Palestinian Americans out of Gaza (there are around 500) before a ground operation starts. Blinken confirmed on CBS' "Face the Nation" that Hamas has blocked Americans from leaving Gaza.
The big question: While the world is focused on the Middle East, does China get more aggressive in the South China Sea and eventually — the big one — Taiwan?
Six Chinese warships last week operated in Middle Eastern waters for what Beijing's state media called a ‘goodwill visit.’
Yesterday, a Chinese coast guard ship rammed two Philippine military vessels during a mission to resupply the contested Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, heightening fears of an armed conflict. The State Department says China ‘violated international law.’
The bottom line: The world is at massive risk of armed contagion in the Middle East — and will be for a while.” [Axios]
Toddler formula lacks nutritional benefits, new guidance says.
“Why? Older-infant formula is generally unnecessary for most children over 12 months, who can drink cheaper cow’s milk, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics.
What else to know: Heavily marketed toddler milk is less strictly regulated than infant formula, often includes added sugars and can discourage extended breastfeeding.”
Read this story at Washington Post
More than 5 billion people are at risk of contracting Malaria by 2040.
“Why? Climate change and demographic growth, according to a Post analysis. A warmer planet will mean malaria-carrying mosquitoes will migrate to new places.
What else to know: More extreme storms, and a longer warm, rainy transmission season, will contribute to the spread, eroding recent progress in the fight against the deadly disease.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Scientists learned more about how plants warn each other of danger.
“How? Injured plants emit certain chemical compounds that can infiltrate a healthy plant’s inner tissues to activate defenses from within its cells, according to a new study.
Why it matters: A better understanding of this mechanism could help humans ‘immunize’ plants, teaching them how to resist drought or pests while using fewer pesticides.”
Read this story at Washington Post
SPORTS
“M.L.B.: The Texas Rangers forced a Game 7 in the A.L.C.S. with a 9-2 win over the Houston Astros. They play tonight to decide who goes to the World Series.
N.F.L.: The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Miami Dolphins, 31-17.
Sunday football: The Patriots scraped past the Bills, winning 29-25 with 12 seconds left. And after two penalties in the final minute, the Colts lost to the Browns, 38-39.
F1: Max Verstappen won the U.S. Grand Prix in Austin, but his latest victory came with slight controversy: Two prominent drivers were disqualified.” [New York Times]
Taylor-Swift-football was back and oh so cheery
“Taylor Swift returned to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri, on Sunday to cheer on Kansas City Chiefs tight end and rumored boyfriend Travis Kelce during the Chiefs' game against the Los Angeles Chargers. Swift was spotted wearing a festive, red Chiefs sweater and a bracelet featuring Kelce's team number 87 for her game-day attire. Swift cheered alongside Brittany Mahomes, wife of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and the pair teamed up for a celebratory handshake.” Read more at USA Today
Taylor Swift and Brittany Mahomes celebrate a touchdown during the second quarter of the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on October 22, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri.
David Eulitt, Getty Images
Respite for Death Valley
Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images
“The sun rises over a sprawling temporary lake in salt flats of the newly reopened Death Valley National Park in California.
The lake was formed by flooding in August from Tropical Storm Hilary, which dropped a year's worth of rain in a single day.” [Axios]
”Lives Lived: Betsy Rawls won eight major golf championships, including four U.S. Women’s Opens, then became a golf executive. She died at 95.” [New York Times]