“WASHINGTON — Worsening conflict within and between nations. Increased dislocation and migration as people flee climate-fueled instability. Heightened military tension and uncertainty. Financial hazards.
The Biden administration released several reports Thursday about climate change and national security, laying out in stark terms the ways in which the warming world is beginning to significantly challenge stability worldwide.
The documents, issued by the departments of Homeland Security and Defense as well as the National Security Council and director of national intelligence, mark the first time that the nation’s security agencies collectively communicated the climate risks they face.
The reports include warnings from the intelligence community about how climate change can work on numerous levels to sap the strength of a nation. For example, countries like Iraq and Algeria could be hit by lost revenue from fossil fuels, even as their region faces worsening heat and drought. The Pentagon warned that food shortages could lead to unrest, along with fights between countries over water.
The Department of Homeland Security, which includes the U.S. Coast Guard, warned that as ice melts in Arctic Ocean, competition will increase for fish, minerals and other resources. Another report warned that tens of millions of people are likely to be displaced by 2050 because of climate change — including as many as 143 million people in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
The national security warnings came on the same day that top financial regulators for the first time flagged climate change as ‘an emerging threat’ to the American economy. More frequent and destructive disasters, such as hurricanes, floods and wildfires, are resulting in property damage, lost income and business disruptions that threaten to change the way real estate and other assets are valued, according to a report released by a panel of federal and state regulators. As of Oct. 8, there have been 18 ‘weather/climate disaster events’ in 2021 costing more than $1 billion each, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The reports came as President Biden prepares to attend a major United Nations climate conference in Glasgow known as COP26. With his climate agenda stalled in Congress, Mr. Biden risks having little progress to tout in Glasgow, where the administration had hoped to re-establish United States leadership on addressing warming.
The reports ‘reinforce the President’s commitment to evidence-based decisions guided by the best available science and data,’ the White House said Thursday, and ‘will serve as a foundation for our critical work on climate and security moving forward.’
The notion that climate change is a national security threat isn’t new — the Obama administration said as much, and began pushing the Pentagon to consider climate risks. But taken together, the reports signal a new stage in U.S. policy, one that places climate change at the center of the country’s security planning.” Read more at New York Times
“The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) signed off on mix-and-match COVID-19 booster shots Thursday night, meaning clinics, doctors and pharmacies can begin giving them out Friday . A CDC advisory committee recommended that Americans be allowed to choose between the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines as a COVID-19 booster shot. The committee said it could increase protection against the disease that is killing on average 1,093 Americans a day. ‘The evidence shows that all three COVID-19 vaccines authorized in the United States are safe... And, they are all highly effective in reducing the risk of severe disease, hospitalization, and death,’ CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said.” Read more at USA Today
“The House voted to hold former President Trump ally Steve Bannon in criminal contempt of Congress after he defied a subpoena from the House committee investigating the January 6 insurrection. All 220 Democrats and nine Republicans voted in favor. The session got tense when GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene confronted two other House members, calling the vote a ‘joke.’ Meanwhile, the House Judiciary Committee questioned Attorney General Merrick Garland for the first time since he assumed leadership of the Justice Department. Republicans grilled him on the Bannon vote and plans to open a line of communication with the FBI to report parent threats against school officials. Democrats pressed Garland on civil rights matters, including police misconduct and violence in prisons.” Read more at CNN
Aerial video shows Santa Fe County Sheriff's officers responding to a movie set at Bonanza Creek near Santa Fe, N.M., yesterday. Photo: KOAT 7 News via AP
“Authorities in New Mexico are investigating after confirming that a prop firearm discharged Thursday by actor Alec Baldwin on the set of the upcoming Western film ‘Rust’ killed cinematographer Halyna Hutchins and wounded director Joel Souza. Hutchins, 42, was pronounced dead by medical personnel at University of New Mexico Hospital, the Santa Fe County Sheriff's department said. Souza was taken by ambulance to Christus St. Vincent Regional Medical Center, where he is undergoing treatment for his injuries. The Santa Fe New Mexican reported Baldwin was seen Thursday outside the sheriff's office in tears. No charges have been filed, the sheriff's office said. Detectives are continuing to interview witnesses. Filming for ‘Rust,’ which was set to continue into early November, has been halted.” Read more at USA Today
“Sixteen Americans and one Canadian remain in the hands of a Haitian gang Friday, a week after police said they were kidnapped. According to authorities, the gang is demanding $17 million for the release of the group, who were in the country with the Ohio-based Christian Aid Ministries . Those kidnapped include seven women, five men and five children. In a video released Thursday, the leader of the gang said he would kill them if demands weren't met. The abduction adds to the turmoil in Haiti, where bold criminal activity has been rampant even before the July assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. That crisis, along with an August earthquake that killed more than 2,200 people and destroyed over 130,000 homes, has fueled a near collapse of civil order.” Read more at USA Today
President Biden greets attendees during a commercial break in Baltimore last night. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images
“What matters from President Biden's town hall with CNN's Anderson Cooper at Baltimore Center Stage last night, via Axios night owl Hans Nichols:
The biggest headline: Biden is jettisoning the corporate tax increases that White House officials have insisted, for the past 10 months, are wildly popular across the country. He admitted he doesn't have the votes.
State of play for social-spending package: Expanding Medicare for dental and vision benefits, a priority for Sen. Bernie Sanders, is a ‘reach,’ Biden said, because ‘Manchin is opposed’ ... Twelve weeks of paid family leave — whittled to four weeks ... Two years of free community college is now more Pell Grants: ‘I guarantee you, we're going to get free community college in the next several years.’
Filibuster: Biden signaled openness to ending the Senate filibuster rule for voting rights legislation ‘and maybe more’ issues.
Gas prices: ‘My guess is you’ll start to see gas prices come down ... in 2022. I don’t see anything that's going to happen in the meantime that's going to significantly reduce gas prices.’
Taiwan: Biden punctured strategic ambiguity on coming to Taiwan's defense if China attacked: ‘Yes, we have a commitment to do that.’ A White House spokesperson told me: ‘The President was not announcing any change in our policy and there is no change in our policy.’ But Beijing will assume that's the real policy.” Read more at Axios
“Investors can breathe a sigh of relief.
The world’s most indebted real estate developer, China Evergrande Group, has avoided default — at least for now — after making a key interest payment at the 11th hour. The Chinese property developer’s cash crisis has sparked fears about global financial fallout from its imminent collapse.
State-backed newspaper Securities Times reported Friday that Evergrande had wired a $83.5 million payment to bondholders, a day before a 30-day grace period would have expired, pulling it back from the brink of one of the largest defaults in history.
The news was received with cautious optimism by the market, with Evergrande’s longer-term prospects unclear. The company is still staggering under $300 billion in debt, about 2 percent of China’s gross domestic product. Evergrande’s stock closed 4.3 percent higher in Hong Kong.” Read more at Washington Post
“HOUSTON — Amid pressure from former President Donald J. Trump to support a broad review of the 2020 election in Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott on Thursday appointed as secretary of state a lawyer who briefly joined Mr. Trump’s challenge to the 2020 results in Pennsylvania.
The new secretary of state, John Scott, will oversee Texas elections at a time when a new law imposing further restrictions on voting and a Republican redistricting plan have raised alarm among voting rights advocates that the state’s growing nonwhite population would not be fairly represented.
More immediately, Mr. Scott, a Fort Worth lawyer who worked for Mr. Abbott when he was the state’s attorney general, will take charge of a limited review of the 2020 election results that Mr. Abbott, a Republican, ordered last month for four of the most populous counties in Texas.” Read more at New York Times
“Texas and Missouri are suing the Biden administration for its efforts to stop wall construction projects at the southern US border. The lawsuit argues that Biden didn't have the authority to refuse to spend funds authorized under the previous administration for construction of the border wall. Biden ordered a pause on wall construction as one of its first actions in office and called for a review of the project and its funding. The administration has also canceled several border wall contracts. Texas and Missouri claim the administration's actions allow more migrants to enter and remain in their states.” Read more at CNN
“Former President Trump is telling most anyone who'll listen he will run again in 2024 — and poll after poll shows the vast majority of Republicans would gladly cheer him on and vote for him.
Why it matters: Trump is the heart, soul and undisputed leader of the Republican Party and will easily win the nomination if he wants it, the polls make unmistakably clear.
It's not just idle chatter. Trump is spending much of his time thinking about politics, holding calls with his political team and surveying polling.
Trump is keeping close tabs on his would-be rivals for the nomination — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former V.P. Mike Pence and former SecState Mike Pompeo in particular.
What we're watching: Trump has been endorsing loyalists who back his fraud claims in secretary of state races around the country — a sign he’s thinking ahead about political levers and remains obsessed with the ‘Big Lie,’ Axios managing editor Margaret Talev points out.
What we're hearing: Trump's most likely opponent is Pence, who — I'm told — has no plans to defer to his former boss.
Reality check: The idea someone could challenge Trump as an anti-Trump candidate seems ludicrous. The market is minimalist inside the new GOP.
That means someone would need to out-Trump Trump when the latest Quinnipiac Poll shows 8 in 10 Republicans want him to run.
Almost every top Republican we talk to said it would take a severe illness, death — or criminal charges sticking — to stop Trump from walking away with the race before it even begins.
Pompeo has been the most obvious about his presidential ambitions — starting a PAC and doing all the obvious travel.
Trump aides have commented on how much weight Pompeo has lost — another sign, they interpret, of his ambitions.
But Trump's advisers cannot imagine Pompeo or DeSantis would dare run against him.
Trumpworld is more uncertain about Pence, who has been quiet about his intentions but maintains a strong and loyal team around him.
Nikki Haley — the former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor, who's often talked of as a potential 2024 candidate — has explicitly said she wouldn’t challenge Trump.
Pence has notably not made any such declaration.
And you know who's noticed? Donald J. Trump.” Read more at Axios
“Following trading scandals, Federal Reserve officials and senior staff will be banned from owning individual stocks and bonds, Axios Closer author Courtenay Brown writes for AM.
Why it matters: The historic rule puts guardrails around powerful officials reaping financial gains from economic policy they help set.
Catch up quick: Two (now former) regional Fed presidents owned assets sensitive to monetary policy last year when the Fed stepped in with unprecedented action, financial disclosures showed.
That didn't just spark an uproar in Washington. The Fed, which has underpinned the stock boom, has seeped into the mainstream.
‘Money printer go brrr’ — a reference to trillions of dollars the Fed "printed" and pumped into the economy — is a mantra among day-traders on Reddit, where chair Jerome Powell is known as ‘JPow.’
What to watch: Critics say the new rules don’t do enough.” Read more at Axios
“The Dodgers live another day: Third baseman Chris Taylor hit three home runs and drove in six runs in the Los Angeles Dodgers' 11-2 rout of the Atlanta Braves in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series. The Braves still lead the series 3-2.” Read more at USA Today
“According to authorities, Madelyn "Madie" Nicpon, a 20-year-old lacrosse player at Tufts University in Massachusetts, died last weekend after falling unconscious at a charity fundraiser. She was participating with other students in a hot dog eating contest and choked. Nicpon's death has triggered an outpouring of emotion at Tufts and well beyond. About 3,000 students, faculty and staffers from the roughly 6,000-student university attended a vigil Sunday night to honor Nicpon, nicknamed ‘Scooter’ on her team. Candles were placed around Nicpon's No. 2 jerseys. A wake will be held for Nicpon Friday evening at the Church of the Presentation in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.” Read more at USA Today
“Lives Lived: Jerry Pinkney’s evocative illustrations brought more than 100 children’s books to life. One of the most revered illustrators in the genre, he was best known for his images of Black characters, history and culture. He died at 81.” Read more at New York Times
“Thousands of protesters took to the streets of Sudan’s capital Khartoum on Monday to renew calls for civilian rule as the uneasy coalition of military and civilian leaders at the helm of the country’s transitional government begins to buckle.
Thursday’s protests, which are reported to have numbered in the hundreds of thousands can be seen as a show of force following an attempted coup a month before and a pro-military sit-in staged in front of the presidential palace in Khartoum since Saturday.
Elections for a new government are supposed to take place in late 2022, but those on the streets aren’t the only ones to decide on that. T’here’s a growing sense that the military and security services would like to see the elections indefinitely postponed, ‘Alden Young, a Sudan expert at the University of California, Los Angeles, told Foreign Policy.
Alongside the obvious power of highly-trained men with guns, military leaders also exercise control over key areas of the country’s economy. Many of Sudan’s gold mines, for example, are controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a militia led by the governing sovereignty council’s deputy chairman Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, also known as Hemeti.
‘This is not how any country’s economy should run, but this was how the kleptocracy of al-Bashir ran and it’s very difficult to undo that,’ Eric Reeves, a Sudan expert at Smith College told Foreign Policy. What makes matters worse, Reeves said, is that the military leaders ‘know absolutely nothing about economics.’
That military’s control also extends to foreign policy. While Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, a civilian, was reluctant to sign an agreement normalizing ties with Israel, the military’s support for the deal eventually won out.
Regionally, the civilian-military divide can create mixed signals. Hamdok, who spent part of his career in Addis Ababa, is seen as more sympathetic to neighbor Ethiopia and its mega-project the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), while Sudan’s military leaders, following the lead of their Egyptian allies, were staunchly opposed.
While the United States has applied some rhetorical pressure to speed the transition, including a call this week for disparate military groups to consolidate into one entity, it has so far kept other tools, like sanctions, off the table.
That balancing act may be down to a desire to keep problems in the region from multiplying, especially with Ethiopia’s conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front dragging into its second year. The U.S. position shouldn’t be considered an endorsement of future military rule in Sudan, UCLA’s Young said, considering the human rights record of those same leaders that the United States has railed against in the past.
‘The U.S. has not traditionally really loved these guys, but with the chaos in Ethiopia, there’s the question of how much instability is the U.S. willing to risk,’ Young said. E’thiopia used to be a partner in the region for peacekeeping and for stability operations—is Sudan now looking like a potential replacement?’” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Biden’s Taiwan gaffe. U.S. President Joe Biden appeared to signal a shift in U.S. policy toward Taiwan, saying in a CNN town hall on Thursday that the United States had a ‘commitment’ to defend the island, a statement that contradicts the long-held policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ toward Taiwan.
A White House spokesperson was quick to correct the record following the event, saying: ‘The U.S. defense relationship with Taiwan is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act. We will uphold our commitment under the Act, we will continue to support Taiwan’s self-defense, and we will continue to oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo.’” Read more at Foreign Policy
“The Queen’s health. Queen Elizabeth II, the world’s longest reigning monarch, spent a night in the hospital on Wednesday, fueling speculation over her possible ill health. The 95-year-old had been scheduled to attend a centenary commemoration in Northern Ireland earlier in the week, but cancelled at the last minute. British officials said the queen had been sent for “preliminary investigations” and returned to Windsor Castle the following day.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Covid-19 cases are getting so bad in Russia, Moscow’s mayor has ordered all unvaccinated citizens over age 60 to stay home for four months. The capital city is also going back under lockdown for 10 days to curb its worst-ever phase of the pandemic. Experts blame a slow vaccination drive, an overwhelmed health care system and widespread mistrust in government for the situation. Covid-19 cases are also rising in the UK, and the country’s doctors are accusing Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government of being ‘willfully negligent’ in handling the situation. It’s a different story in Australia, where the second-largest state of Victoria has emerged from what is locally being called the ‘world’s longest lockdown.’” Read more at CNN
“The European Union has elevated an ongoing spat with Poland over the country’s challenges to EU rule. The European Parliament voted overwhelmingly yesterday to condemn a ruling by Poland's Constitutional Tribunal that says its constitution takes precedence over some EU laws. The ruling alarmed European lawmakers and raised fears of Poland’s possible exit from the bloc -- a ‘Polexit.’ However, Poland’s ruling party said no such plans are in place, and support for EU membership remains high among its citizens. Still, the EU could choose to discipline Warsaw by withholding funds for Covid-19 recovery or development projects. Poland's premier called the possible punishment ‘blackmail.’” Read more at CNN
“The world’s more-than-decade-long obsession with spurring economic growth is pivoting, under the weight of the pandemic and gummed-up supply chains, to worrying about inflation.
For a generation of leaders who’ve never had to deal with spiking prices, that means increased political risk. And from rich nations to developing economies, they’re scrambling to keep voters off their backs.
In Argentina, where President Alberto Fernandez’s ruling coalition faces a tough midterm election next month, his government is freezing prices on 1,432 household items. That may help people feeling the pinch of 53% annual inflation, but it will also escalate tensions with the business sector.
With just six months to go before he faces his own re-election bid, French President Emmanuel Macron is dealing with a particularly delicate situation. After facing off with Yellow Vest protesters over a spike in fuel costs, his prime minister announced a new subsidy program to help workers who rely on cars.
In the U.K., Brexit has only made things worse. The hospitality sector is missing about half a million workers and looking at cost growth of as much as 18%. Meanwhile, market-implied inflation expectations in the U.S. are the highest in 15 years.
That’s piling pressure on President Joe Biden, who has few tools to tackle the supply-chain crunch and said yesterday that Americans should expect high gasoline prices to continue into next year.
He’s also locked in negotiations for a slimmed-down version of his economic agenda. While the package envisions expanding the government’s role, injecting more cash into the economy could, at least in the short term, add to pressures that are making things more expensive.
With voters feeling the pinch as the holiday season approaches, politicians everywhere may find New Year goodwill in short supply too.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Ivory poaching over decades has led to the evolution of tuskless elephants, researchers have found, proving that humans are ‘literally changing the anatomy’ of wild animals.
A previously rare genetic mutation causing tusklessness has become very common in some groups of African elephants after a period in which many were killed for their tusks, according to a study published in the journal Science.
Researchers looked at why female elephants in Gorongosa national park in Mozambique were frequently born without tusks, and found that the animals were in effect genetically engineered by mass poaching for ivory.
Elephants with tusks were highly likely to be hunted during the Mozambican civil war from 1977 to 1992, when 90% of the elephant population was slaughtered by armed forces on both sides to produce ivory that was sold to finance the conflict. Those without tusks were left alone, leading to an increased likelihood they would breed and pass on the tuskless trait to their offspring.
A couple of generations later, the effects of this are still visible on the group of about 700 elephants that live in the national park. Robert Pringle, of the department of ecology and evolutionary biology at Princeton University, which led the study, said it showed the impact of human interference in nature.” Read more at The Guardian
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