The Full Belmonte, 10/20/2023
President Biden will ask Congress for more money for Ukraine and Israel.
“Why? To combat Russia and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which attacked Israel on Oct. 7 and took over 200 hostages. Biden linked the two threats in a speech last night.
What else? He urged restraint from Israel in Gaza, where airstrikesand a siege have led to a humanitarian crisis. Yesterday, a historic church sheltering civilians in Gaza was struck.”
Read this story at Washington Post
State Department issues worldwide caution alert for U.S. citizens
“The State Department has issued a worldwide alert urging Americans to ‘exercise increased caution’ overseas, as protests rage across the Arab world over the Israel-Hamas war.
‘Due to increased tensions in various locations around the world, the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations or violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests, the Department of State advises U.S. citizens overseas to exercise increased caution,’ the alert said.
Violent protests have erupted across the Middle East following Tuesday’s deadly blast at the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City.
Hamas accused Israel of hitting the hospital with an airstrike. Israel and the U.S. have cited their own intelligence indicating the blast was caused by a rocket misfired by another Gaza terrorist group, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
In Lebanon, the U.S. Embassy in Beirut has told Americans in the country to leave as soon as possible, after hundreds of protesters clashed with security forces near the embassy building.” [NBC News]
House GOP boils over
Rep. Jim Jordan walks through a media scrum in the Rayburn House Office Building today. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
“The Republican caucus descended into a nasty and chaotic stalemate today, Axios' Juliegrace Brufke and Zachary Basu report.
Why it matters: Widespread backlash upended speaker nominee Jim Jordan's decision to pause his campaign and endorse a plan to temporarily empower interim Speaker Patrick McHenry.
Now Jordan says he's preparing for a third vote, which he's expected to lose by a sizable margin.
Inside the room: In a closed-door GOP meeting, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy screamed at Rep. Matt Gaetz to sit down when he went to speak, a source said.
Gaetz, a Jordan supporter who led the charge to oust McCarthy, called the plan a ‘constitutional desecration’ and vowed to ‘do everything possible to stop it.’
Rep. Jim Banks, an influential conservative, called the plan ‘the biggest F U to Republican voters.’” [Axios]
Former Trump attorney Sidney Powell pleads guilty in Georgia election case
“In a surprise turn, former Trump attorney Sidney Powell pleaded guilty today in the sweeping Georgia election interference case involving former President Donald Trump and 17 other co-defendants, a day before her trial was set to begin.
Powell, who had vowed to ‘release the Kraken’ — the supposed evidence of fraud in the 2020 election that never materialized — pleaded guilty to illegally conspiring to overturn Trump’s election loss in Georgia.
Under her plea deal, Powell was sentenced to six years of probation, agreed to pay $8,700 in fines and restitution, and turn over documents. She must also write an apology letter to the citizens of Georgia.
Powell has agreed to testify against her other co-defendants, including Trump.” [NBC News]
Travis King, U.S. soldier who crossed into North Korea, charged with desertion and other offenses by the Army
“The Army placed King in pre-trial confinement at Fort Bliss, Tex., according to new charging documents. King, who had crossed the border from South Korea during a tour of the demilitarized zone, according to U.S. authorities, was expelled by Pyongyang in September after state media said he had confessed to illegally entering the country.”
Read more at Washington Post
California Sen. Laphonza Butler will not seek a full term
10/19/2023 04:38 PM EDT
“Newly-appointed California Sen. Laphonza Butler will not seek a full Senate term next year, avoiding a contest that features three high-profile Democrats jostling for the once-in-a-lifetime job.
‘I’ve spent the past 16 days pursuing my clarity — what kind of life I want to have, what kind of service I want to offer and what kind of voice I want to bring forward,’ Butler said in a statement Thursday. ‘After considering those questions I’ve decided not to run for Senate in the upcoming election. Knowing you can win a campaign doesn’t always mean you should run a campaign.’
Read the latest at POLITICO
Pentagon shell swap
An Israeli soldier adjusts the tip to a 155mm artillery shell near the Israel-Lebanon border yesterday. Photo: Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images
“The Pentagon plans to send Israel tens of thousands of artillery shells from U.S. emergency stocks that had been designated for Ukraine, three Israeli officials tell Axios' Barak Ravid.
Why it matters: The Israel Defense Forces has significantly increased its use of artillery since the Hamas attack on Israel.
What's happening: The IDF and Ministry of Defense told their U.S. counterparts they urgently need shells to prepare for a ground invasion in Gaza and a potential escalation by Hezbollah.
The Israeli officials said the 155mm artillery shells will be sent in the coming weeks.
Zoom in: The ammunition was originally part of a U.S. weapons stockpile kept in Israel as part of an agreement between the countries.
Earlier this year, the U.S. began drawing down shells from those stockpiles to send to Ukraine.
Only American military personnel have access to the weapons storage sites. But Israel can use the ammunition with U.S. approval.” [Axios]
Incoming Aid
Trucks carrying aid line up near the Rafah Border Crossing in North Sinai, Egypt, on Oct. 18.Mahmoud Khaled/Getty Images
“Egypt has agreed to allow humanitarian aid convoys to enter Gaza through its Rafah crossing for the first time since the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7. Reports indicate that as many as 100 trucks are waiting to enter the war-riddled region, but local teams must first repair road damage caused by airstrikes before they can pass through. Deliveries could come as early as Friday, but delays are expected.
Rafah is the only border crossing into Gaza that is not controlled by Israel. However, Egypt has remained hesitant to open its gates, fearing Israeli airstrikes on aid workers and spillover violence into Sinai. Cairo remains adamant that Egypt will not accept any Palestinian refugees.
Gaza’s humanitarian situation is rapidly deteriorating, and this first batch of aid will likely not make a significant dent in relieving the crisis, according to United Nations agencies. Stores in Gaza are days away from running out of food, and the territory’s last seawater desalination plant is no longer operating. Only three liters of clean water are available per person each day in Gaza, but health experts recommend an absolute minimum of 15 liters of water and access to 50 to 100 liters of water for drinking and hygiene purposes.
U.S. President Joe Biden was among the primary forces pushing Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to open the Rafah crossing for aid convoys during his trip to Israel on Wednesday. Yet the United States was the only U.N. Security Council member on Wednesday to veto a resolution calling for a pause in bombardments to deliver aid to Gaza. And Washington maintains a strict stance on Hamas, with the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioning 10 additional Hamas members in Gaza, Sudan, Turkey, Algeria, and Qatar on Wednesday.
Britain abstained from the U.N. vote, and like Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visited Israel on Thursday to pledge U.K. support for the Israel Defense Forces. Speaking at a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Sunak invoked rhetoric similar to that used by Winston Churchill, saying he was ‘proud to stand here with you in Israel’s darkest hour as your friend.’ Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for an immediate cease-fire on Thursday in his first major public response since the war began.
But regional tensions continue to escalate, straining foreign ties. On Thursday, Israel reportedly withdrew all diplomats from Turkey over security concerns after protests continue to erupt outside Israeli and U.S. embassies in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan.” [Foreign Policy]
“Censored and barred. Russian authorities charged Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty editor Alsu Kurmasheva on Wednesday for not registering as a ‘foreign agent’ while visiting for a family emergency. She has been detained in Russia since June. A dual U.S.-Russian citizen, she is the second U.S. journalist to be held by Moscow this year following the arrest of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich in March. Both her Russian and U.S. passports were confiscated.
‘We condemn Alsu Kurmasheva’s detention and call for her immediate and unconditional release,’ Jeanne Cavelier, head of Reporters Without Borders’ Eastern Europe and Central Asia desk, said, adding that Kurmasheva’s arrest is the Kremlin’s latest attempt to blackmail Washington for supporting Ukraine.” [Foreign Policy]
“Scrapping sanctions on Caracas. In a major U.S. policy shift, the Biden administration temporarily removed sanctions against Venezuela’s oil and gas industries on Wednesday. For the next six months, there will be fewer U.S. bans on trading Venezuelan government bonds or investing in the country’s energy and gold-mining sectors.
The decision follows Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the nation’s opposition agreeing to a presidential election framework going into 2024. Maduro celebrated the reversal as a chance to ‘reconstruct relations based on respect, cooperation’ with Washington. That may be solidified if Maduro releases some of the eight U.S. citizens jailed in Venezuela as well as detained opposition members, as Washington hopes. Some Venezuelan politicians have already been released.” [Foreign Policy]
“Off to the polls. Incumbent Liberian President George Weah and former Vice President Joseph Boakai are headed to the country’s upcoming presidential runoff, according to provisional results released on Wednesday. Weah won 43.8 percent of the vote to Boakai’s 43.5 percent in the first round of voting on Oct. 10, setting up what could be the country’s closest race in history.
Weah’s election in 2017 came with great public support as the country still reeled from its deadly back-to-back civil wars 14 years earlier. But the former soccer star has faced backlash for failing to uphold campaign promises to fight corruption and seek justice for war victims, despite making inroads in developing infrastructure and providing free university tuition. Boakai has labeled himself Liberia’s much-needed ‘rescue’ from Weah’s weak rule.” [Foreign Policy]
“Leading the polls for Argentina’s presidential election this Sunday is far-right libertarian Javier Milei—and his five cloned dogs. You read that correctly; Milei is the proud dog dad of five mastiffs who are all genetic copies of his former dog, Conan. Murray, Milton, Robert, Lucas, and the new Conan may be the next furry faces residing at Quinta de Olivos. Hopefully the staff can tell them apart.” [Foreign Policy]
People of African ancestry are poorly represented in genetic studies. A new effort would change that
“The hope is to build a new “reference genome” — a template to compare to full sets of DNA from individuals — and better understand genetic variants that affect Black people. It could eventually translate into new medicines, diagnostic tests and help reduce health disparities.” Read More at Washington Post
International
“Canada withdrew two-thirds of its diplomats based in India after the country said it would revoke their diplomatic immunity.” [New York Times]
“The police in Haiti arrested a former government official in the investigation into President Jovenel Moïse’s assassination.” [New York Times]
“China has probably added 100 nuclear warheads to its arsenal since last year, the Pentagon said.” [New York Times]
“In many countries, people expect long lines to cast their vote at the ballot box. In Argentina, locals queue up at bank branches to withdraw their cash.
Presidential election frontrunner Javier Milei, who describes himself as an “anarcho-capitalist,” wants to ditch the peso for the US dollar. The incumbent, Peronist party candidate Sergio Massa, plans to stay with the national currency, while conservative opposition contender Patricia Bullrich wants the peso and the greenback to co-exist as two types of legal tender.
All the money talk in Argentina is sparking doomsday warnings about hyperinflation and furious dinner-table debates.
With inflation already topping 130%, many voters go wild for Milei — who has vowed to take a chainsaw to public spending — hoisting fake dollar billboards with his face on them at his rallies. But Argentines, desperate for change, perhaps don’t quite grasp what it means to effectively ditch their economic independence.
What’s clear is few people want the national currency. Argentines save in dollars, buy homes in greenbacks and are offloading their pesos before a possible devaluation after Sunday’s first-round vote.
Businesses are suspending sales of everything from car parts to toilet paper. Gas stations are halting sales at the pump in remote provinces, while supermarkets are receiving notice of no new supplies until after the election.
The faces on the increasingly worthless notes also keep changing. Some portray endangered wildlife, but a new 2,000-peso bill features two doctors who few recognize.
Swapping currencies still won’t address Argentina’s root problem: a gargantuan-sized government growing ever bigger within an economy constantly shrinking, a hollowed out shell of its former wealthy self. More than 40% of Argentines now live in poverty, a social crisis in the making unless the next president delivers results fast.
The reality is slashing spending on subsidies in the short term means higher inflation, a deeper recession and more destitute Argentines before things turn around — if ever.” — Patrick Gillespie [Bloomberg]
Milei during a closing campaign rally in Buenos Aires on Wednesday. Photographer: Anita Pouchard Serra/Bloomberg
“Keir Starmer’s hopes of ousting Rishi Sunak as UK prime minister in an election expected next year received a major boost as his opposition Labour Party overturned huge Conservative majorities to win two parliamentary seats. The results of special elections in Mid Bedfordshire, which had voted Conservative since 1931, and in Tamworth suggest Labour can win back power from the Tories for the first time since 2010.” [Bloomberg]
“Switzerland’s anti-immigrant People’s Party is set to consolidate its position as the nation’s strongest political force in an election on Sunday.” [Bloomberg]
Behind the Curtain: A rattled U.S. government
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
"Behind the Curtain" is a new column by Axios CEO Jim VandeHei and co-founder Mike Allen, based on regular conversations with White House and congressional leaders, CEOs, and top technologists.
“Never before have we talked to so many top government officials who, in private, are so worried about so many overseas conflicts at once.
Why it matters: We don't like to sound dire. But to sound a siren of clinical, clear-eyed realism: U.S. officials say this confluence of crises poses epic concern and historic danger.
Behind the scenes: Officials tell us that inside the White House, this was the heaviest, most chilling week since President Biden took office just over 1,000 days ago.
Former Defense Secretary Bob Gates tells us America is facing the most crises since World War II ended 78 years ago.
Not one of the crises can be solved and checked off. All five could spiral into something much bigger:
1. Israel's response to the Hamas terrorist attack, and growing fear of a spreading war that reaches to Iran and beyond. Officials point to the protests, threats and deadly, anti-American warnings of Arab nations after they thought — incorrectly — Israel struck a hospital in Gaza, killing hundreds. This is a preview of what they fully expect will be a worldwide response to the expected Israeli invasion of Gaza.
The U.S. is deploying two aircraft carriers to the region. A U.S. Navy destroyer yesterday shot down missiles from Yemen that appeared headed toward Israel. U.S. troops were fired on this weekby drones in Syria and Iraq.
2. Vladimir Putin meeting in China this week with Xi Jinping to further strengthen their anti-America alliance. In a new Foreign Affairs article that top officials are sharing, Gates argues that both leaders believe America and other big democracies "are past their prime and have entered an irreversible decline." Putin and Xi sniff weakness and are activating on many fronts, top administration officials tell us.
This Reuters headline says it all: ‘Russia says it is coordinating Middle East policy with China.’
3. A malicious Iran. It's unclear how involved Iran was in orchestrating or assisting the Hamas terrorist attack — but officials seem certain there are ties. More worrisome: U.S. officials fear Hezbollah — a much bigger terrorist group than Hamas, funded by Iran — will strike the moment Israel gets stuck in Gaza.
Biden said last night in his Oval Office address: ‘Iran is supporting Russia in Ukraine, and it's supporting Hamas and other terrorist groups in the region.’
4. Then there's the unhinged leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, and his frequent testing of long-range, nuclear-capable missiles. As Gates points out, Russia, China, Iran and North Korea combined will have twice as many nuclear weapons as America in two years.
5. A new weapon is being deployed in all these conflicts: a massive spread of doctored or wholly fake videos to manipulate what people see and think in real time. The architects of these new technologies, in background conversations with us after demonstrating new capabilities soon to be released, say even the sharpest eyes looking for fake videos will have an impossible time detecting what's real. (We'll have a column coming soon to Go Deeper on this topic).
Fake video, on top of bots (fake people) and fake written content, is being used aggressively by all anti-American actors, intelligence officials say. Some experts estimate that more than 90% of content on the internet will soon be fake or manipulated.
First Lady Jill Biden and counselor Steve Ricchetti watch as President Biden speaks from the Oval Office last night. Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP
What scares officials is how all five threats could fuse into one.
The State Department yesterday issued a rare "Worldwide Caution," warning U.S. travelers abroad of ‘increased tensions in various locations around the world’ that raise ‘the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations or violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests.’
These simultaneous threats are hitting at the very moment the American political system seems — and sometimes is — literally broken.
It's not just that Republicans don't have a House speaker and can't seem to elect one, or that we might shut down the government in the middle of this mess, or that we're hurtling toward another toxic presidential election in which big chunks of both parties want different candidates.
Former top intelligence officials tell us domestic unrest is one of their biggest fears — whether it's triggered by court rulings against former President Trump or protests over war in the Middle East. Biden allies frame these flare-ups as a reminder that global chaos requires calm and experience. ‘With age comes wisdom,’ Ron Klain, Biden's first chief of staff, told us.
But there has been a total collapse of people's trust in the opposing party, the media, what they see or share on social platforms, and even the top-secret intelligence the government relies on to measure these threats.
This, as much as the five individual threats above, is what worries officials. They know things could get worse — fast — and require tough actions — fast. And no one knows whether Congress or the public could unite in an emergency.” [Axios]
Cold medicine
“Pharmacy chain CVS is removing some over-the-counter allergy and cold medicines from its shelves one month after advisors to the FDA declared that phenylephrine, a popular ingredient in these medications, is ineffective when taken orally. The company will continue to sell other "oral cough and cold products" in order to "meet consumer needs," a CVS spokesperson said. While the FDA has found that the ingredient is safe to use, many doctors have questioned phenylephrine's effectiveness for years. These products generated nearly $1.8 billion in sales last year alone, according to data from the FDA.” [CNN]
Warm winter for New England, Midwest, NW
Data: NOAA. Map: Erin Davis/Axios
“There are higher than average odds for unusually mild conditions across much of the Lower 48 states, particularly along the northern tier and into the Northeast, Axios' Andrew Freedman writes from a NOAA outlook out yesterday.
Why it matters: A strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean, plus record-high global ocean temperatures, will shape our winter.” [Axios]
Hollywood actors strike nears 100th day
“There is no end in sight for film and TV actors who are striking in what has become the longest work stoppage in the industry's history. The strike by the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists hits its 100th day on Saturday, while writers are busy back at work after ending their strike. Negotiations unraveled earlier this month, when studios said discrepancies with actors' demands were too significant to find common ground. The actors union decried their opponents’ ‘bullying tactics’ and said they were wildly mischaracterizing their offers. The prolonged strike means films and TV shows will remain sidelined indefinitely, as buzzy films like ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ hit theaters.”Read more at USA Today
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
Hello, contending Jags
“Despite allowing a listless Saints offense two touchdowns in the final period — and nearly a third — the Jaguars still come out of Thursday Night Football smelling wonderful. Partly because they were on the road and partly because we don’t really know what to do with the 3-4 Saints. We’ll let that fourth-quarter near-choke slide.
Records are what matter, and after a wild 31-24 win last night, the Jaguars are 5-2 and easily the best team in the AFC South. Two things:
Jacksonville is in great shape with Trevor Lawrence at QB. Who else in the division has an established quarterback under center? The closest is Houston’s C.J. Stroud, who, while impressive this year, is still a rookie.
The Jags have won three games in 11 days, including a London game against the Bills. They could’ve played the Panthers all three weeks, and it would’ve still been impressive from a logistical standpoint. They get a nice (deserved) break until next Sunday.
We also had two intense MLB playoff matchups last night. Quickly:
The Diamondbacks narrowed their NLCS deficit to 2-1 with a harrowing 2-1 walk-off over the Phillies. Jury is still out on this series getting tight, but this was easily a game Arizona could’ve let slip. Props for that. Jayson Stark has a fun Weird and Wild column from the game, too.
Houston, meanwhile, feels inevitable again. A 10-3 win in Arlington ties this series 2-2, and every ounce of hope the Rangers had earlier this week is endangered. Don’t be surprised if the Astros romp their way to the World Series from here. They also got one of the funniest outs of the night:
If there’s no batting glove sticking out of the back pocket, that’s a safe call. Anyway. Tonight:
Astros at Rangers, Game 5
5 p.m. ET on FS1Phillies at Diamondbacks, Game 4
8 p.m. ET on TBS [The Athletic]
Explainers
David Berding/Getty Images
Michigan, the NCAA and sign stealing
“What a bizarre year for Michigan, right? On the field, the Wolverines might be the best team in football. They’re at least the most consistently excellent, 7-0 with a 29-point average margin of victory.
Maybe there’s a reason for that, on top of a loaded roster: The Wolverines allegedly are very good at stealing opponents’ signs, and per a Yahoo report yesterday, Michigan coaches might’ve broken NCAA rules in the process.
A few layers here:
The legality of stealing signs is murky. If you can watch an opposing coach and deduce the call, go for it. Intercepting in-game communications is against the rules, though. Also illegal: In-person scouting of future opponents, which is specifically mentioned here. The Athletic’s Brendan Quinn reports, ‘Michigan is being accused of using a ‘vast network’ to steal opposing teams’ signs.’
Despite the Big Ten claiming it knows about ‘credible evidence’ of wrongdoing, per Brendan, no material has been presented to Michigan yet.
This comes weeks after head coach Jim Harbaugh served a three-game suspension for allegedly lying to NCAA officials. He has denied having any ‘awareness’ of any cheating here, too. This is Michigan! Paragon of morality! And we have two NCAA scandals through seven games. Fun.
Where do we go from here? Extremely unclear. I can see this being nothing or becoming a massive scandal. This isn’t a nefarious payment to recruit a player; this is on-field cheating. Allegedly.
This all comes two days before Michigan visits Michigan State, a nasty rivalry that featured an ugly brawl last year. Spartans officials initially told the NCAA they were considering not playing this weekend’s game this weekend after hearing of the report. Now they’ll play.
Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday on NBC. A must-watch game for multiple reasons now. Until Saturday, our college football newsletter, will have more on the whole situation later this morning.
P.S. One idea: Why are we not using NFL-style mics in these helmets yet? Especially at the Power 5 level. All this goes away if so. But if you read this Chris Vannini story from 2022, some schools would rather be good at sign stealing than implement new tech. Sigh.” [The Athletic]
America loves Halloween costumes
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“America's love of costumes is driving Halloween spending to new highs, Axios' Kelly Tyko writes from the National Retail Federation's holiday survey.
Why it matters: Halloween participation is expected to break a record this year and drive up spending overall.
By the numbers: Total spending on costumes is expected to reach $4.1 billion — up 14% from last year and 28% from five years ago.
69% of people celebrating Halloween plan to buy a costume, the highest in the survey's history.
Zoom in: Consumers are expected to spend a record $108.24 each this year.” [Axios]
Fewer Americans are going to the movies, theaters and museums.
“What to know: Just 48% of adults reported attending at least one arts event from July 2021 to July 2022, according to research released this week.
What it means: The arts community is struggling to regain its pre-pandemic audience. But the survey found people are continuing to watch or listen to arts activities online.”
Read this story at Washington Post
A 1981 DeLorean was found in a barn with just 977 miles on it.
The DeLorean DMC-12 was found this month. (Kevin Thomas/DeLorean Nation)
“Where? In southern Wisconsin. The classic car, made famous in the 1985 movie “Back to the Future,” had deflated tires and nesting mice, but was in remarkably good condition.
What happens to it now? The time capsule car, one of only about 9,000 made, will be refurbished. Then, it could be sold for more than $100,000.”
Read this story at Washington Post