The Full Belmonte, 10/17/2023
Civilians gathered on Monday outside the Rafah border crossing in southern Gaza, hoping they would be allowed to cross into Egypt.
PHOTO: IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA/REUTERS
A push by the U.S. and Egypt to open Gaza’s border crossing with Egypt stalled.
“That is undermining the evacuation of Americans and other foreigners stranded by the Israeli military’s siege and the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Palestinian enclave. Egyptian concerns that Israel will not pause airstrikes and Israeli insistence that trucks entering via Egypt be thoroughly searched are holding up a deal, according to Egyptian officials. The Israeli military pointed to concerns about militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad smuggling arms through the Rafah crossing on Egypt’s border with southern Gaza and said that Israel wouldn’t target a civilian convoy. More than a million people have been displaced, according to the U.N. Israel is responding to an Oct. 7 attack during which Hamas militants killed at least 1,400 Israelis and took hundreds of hostages. The Gaza bombing campaign has fueled deadly violence in the West Bank, raising concerns about another front in the war.” [Wall Street Journal]
Palestinians shelter from the Israeli bombardment at a school in Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip, on Monday. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR
As Biden heads to Israel and Jordan, aid is being held up for Gaza
“As the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip grows more dire, Secretary of State Blinken said the U.S. and Israel agreed to develop a plan to enable humanitarian aid from donor nations to reach civilians in Gaza. President Joe Biden has also announced he will travel to Israel and Jordan on Wednesday to show support for the U.S. ally and to meet with Arab leaders. Read more.
Why this matters:
Palestinians in Gaza reported intense bombardments near the southern towns of Khan Younis and Rafah, killing dozens of people in the besieged enclave, where Israel told civilians from the north to seek shelter ahead of an expected ground offensive.
The U.N. humanitarian chief said the United Nations is in ‘deep discussions’ with the Israelis and Egyptians about getting aid through the Rafah crossing after he claimed humanitarian rules of war are being violated. He also called for the immediate release of all hostages taken from Israel, many of them children, women and the elderly.
Israel has maintained punishing airstrikes across Gaza as a ground invasion loomed, while Hamas militants kept up a barrage of rocket attacks, and tensions mounted near the Israel-Lebanon border. This has become the deadliest of the five Gaza wars for both sides with nearly 2,778 people killed and 9,700 wounded in Gaza and over 1,400 Israelis killed, the vast majority massacred in Hamas’ Oct. 7 assault.” [AP News]
Police shoot dead suspected extremist accused of killing 2 Swedish soccer fans on a Brussels street
“A suspect in a shooting rampage that killed two Swedish nationals in Brussels overnight has been shot dead by police and the weapon believed to have been used by the man has been recovered, Belgian Interior Minister Annelies Verlinden said Tuesday. Read more.
Why this matters:
Authorities had been searching for a 45-year-old suspected Tunisian extremist who was known to police and was living in Belgium illegally. Security has been beefed up in the capital and a terror alert for Brussels was raised overnight to 4, indicating an extremely serious threat.
Belgian prosecutors said that nothing suggested the attack was linked to the latest war between Israel and Hamas.” [AP News]
Prosecutors are appealing length of prison sentences for Proud Boys leaders convicted of Jan. 6 plot
“The Justice Department is appealing the length of prison sentences for four Proud Boys leaders, including former leader Enrique Tarrio, convicted of seditious conspiracy in the U.S. Capitol attack. Read more.
Why this matters:
The prison terms brought down were among the longest sentences in the Jan. 6 attack but were still significantly shorter than what prosecutors had recommended, according to court filings.
Over 1,100 people have been charged with Capitol riot-related federal crimes. Approximately 60 of them have been identified as Proud Boys leaders, members or associates.” [AP News]
Families Separated at Border by Trump Reach Settlement
Thousands of migrants subjected to the policy will be allowed to live and work in the U.S., at least temporarily. If they win asylum, they could become citizens.
Oct. 16, 2023
“Lawyers representing thousands of families separated at the southern border during a Trump administration crackdown have reached a settlement with the federal government that enables the migrants to remain in the United States and apply for asylum, putting them on the path to permanent legal residency.
The agreement, filed on Monday in federal court in San Diego, concludes years of negotiations that were part of a class-action lawsuit to address the harm inflicted by family separations carried out in 2017 and 2018.
The policy was a key component of the Trump administration’s efforts to curb unauthorized immigration. Children were systematically taken from their parents and sent to shelters and foster homes across the country, and parents were criminally charged for entering the country unlawfully.
The objective was to deliver a powerful deterrent to families planning to come to the United States, even those seeking asylum. All told, several thousand foreign-born children were taken from their parents. Later, it emerged that hundreds of U.S.-born children crossing the border with migrant parents were also subjected to the policy.
Wrenching images and audio of children being taken from their parents stirred outrage and criticism, and eventually prompted a wave of lawsuits — including the class-action suit, which was filed in the United States District Court for the Southern District of California.
More on U.S. Immigration
Border Surge: Despite dangers and deportations, a sudden surge of people from around the globe is showing up at the southern border. The influx is creating a humanitarian and political crisis.
Efforts to Stem the Pace: The Biden administration said it would expand former President Donald Trump’s border wall and begin deporting thousands of Venezuelans in an effort to cut down on the migrant surge that shows no signs of abating.
A Worsening Crisis: Chicago is struggling to provide for the Venezuelan migrants who have arrived from the border over the last year. But with the city’s infamously cold winter fast approaching, volunteers and leaders are worried that things will only get worse.
About three-quarters of the families that were separated have either been reunified or had been provided with the information they need to begin to reunification process, a senior administration official told reporters on Monday.
If approved by the judge overseeing case, the settlement in the class action would grant the families permission to live and work legally in the United States while they await a decision on their asylum claims. Parents and children who have been separated and are already in the United States will be able to petition to bring immediate family members from their home countries.
“This agreement will facilitate the reunification of separated families and provide them with critical services to aid in their recovery,” the attorney general, Merrick B. Garland, said in a statement.
Families that have previously been denied asylum will be eligible to reapply, and asylum officers will be instructed by the government to take into account the trauma caused by the forced separations. Families that prevail in their asylum cases — which typically take years to be adjudicated — will be eligible for green cards and, eventually, U.S. citizenship….” Read more at New York Times
Judge imposes partial gag order in Trump federal election case
Former President Trump speaks in West Palm Beach, Fla., last week. Photo: Rebecca Blackwell/AP
“The judge overseeing the federal election interference case against former President Donald Trump issued a limited gag order today barring the former president from making statements attacking prosecutors, witnesses, or court staff.
U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan ruled that Trump may criticize the Justice Department and continue to assert his belief that the case is politically motivated, but he can’t ‘launch a pre-trial smear campaign’ against the prosecution and court staffers.
Trump ‘does not have the right to say and do exactly what he pleases,’ Chutkan said during arguments.
Trump has repeatedly attacked the judge as ‘biased’ and ‘Trump hating,’ and has called special counsel Jack Smith, who brought the case against him, ‘deranged’ and a ‘thug.’
A spokesperson for Trump called the judge’s decision today ‘an absolute abomination.’” [NBC News]
House Speaker nominee Jim Jordan won over some pivotal Republican holdouts, moving him closer to securing the gavel in a full House vote.
“The chamber is narrowly divided between 221 Republicans and 212 Democrats, so the Ohio lawmaker needs support from at least 217 members to win. A vote is expected as soon as tomorrow. Many Jordan critics say making him speaker would effectively reward the GOP dissenters who ousted California’s Kevin McCarthy and blocked Louisiana’s Steve Scalise from replacing him. Jordan called for party unity and told colleagues that the differences between Republicans and Democrats ‘vastly outweigh our internal divisions.’ The House has been frozen since McCarthy’s removal two weeks ago.” [Wall Street Journal]
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley greets supporters after signing papers to get on the Republican presidential primary ballot at the New Hampshire Statehouse on Oct. 13, 2023, in Concord, N.H. | Michael Dwyer/AP
“SLOW AND STEADY — After months of parsing polls and debate performances, we’ve got some fresh data on the state of the 2024 presidential race. The latest Federal Election Commission reports offer a revealing look at the financial vigor of the various Republican campaigns, letting us see who’s minting money and who’s sputtering. The quarterly filings also underscore an emerging campaign storyline — Nikki Haley is on a trajectory to become the Trump alternative.
Former President Donald Trump remains dominant in polling and in fundraising. But the new FEC reports — and recent polling — reveal the former South Carolina governor and ambassador’s momentum, which began after a strong performance in the first GOP debate in June.
Along with her gradual rise in the polls, Haley is raising enough money to be competitive with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who’s held the second-place position since entering the race in May but has seen his fundraising slow. In the second quarter, DeSantis crushed Haley, pulling in $20.1 million to her $5.3 million. In the last three months, the gap has closed dramatically, as DeSantis’ campaign fundraising has slowed to $11.2 million raised while Haley’s has increased to $8.2 million raised. DeSantis still pulled in more cash than Haley this quarter, but their trend lines are moving in opposite directions.
And as a result of Haley’s relatively lean campaign operation — burning $3.5 million in expenses compared to DeSantis’ $10.6 million this quarter — she now has $11.6 million cash on hand, of which she has access to $9.1 million in the primary. DeSantis, by comparison, now has $12.3 million cash on hand. Of that number, he can only use $5 million in the primary race; he was forced to downsize his staff over the summer.
The cash totals only tell part of the story. Haley’s slow and steady surge isn’t fully appreciated because she’s still languishing in 4th place in national polls, behind Trump, DeSantis and even Vivek Ramaswamy, according to the 538 national polling average.
The national polls, however, are misleading — after all, presidential nominees aren’t selected in national primaries. In the individual early states that matter, Haley’s position is stronger. She’s now in second place in New Hampshire and South Carolina, according to the 538 polling averages in those states, after surpassing DeSantis in both in early September.
Haley’s now in third place in Iowa, well behind the Florida governor, but she has narrowed the gap considerably. At the beginning of June, DeSantis had 27 percent to Haley’s four percent; today, DeSantis is at 17 percent to her 10 percent. While Haley still has a ways to go in Iowa, it’s worth noting another trendline of interest that might work to her advantage as she attempts to become positioned as the Trump alternative — over the past decade, Iowa has elected Republican women to the Senate, the governorship and to two of the state’s four congressional seats. There’s a long way between here and the January 15 Iowa Caucuses, but Haley’s arrow is pointing up.” [Politico]
No Cease-Fire in Sight
Family and friends of Livnat Levi, who was taken hostage by Hamas during an attack on Israel, embrace ahead of a press conference in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Oct. 13.Leon Neal/Getty Images
“At least 199 people are being held hostage by Hamas and other Palestinian militants in Gaza, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, a spokesperson with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), announced on Monday. That is a significant increase from Israel’s previous estimate of 150 hostages following Hamas’s assault against Israel on Oct. 7.
Israel affirmed on Monday that securing the release of the hostages, who include Israelis as well as foreign nationals, is a top national concern, but Hagari denied rumors of a cease-fire agreement that would create a humanitarian corridor into the Gaza Strip and allow foreign passport holders in the territory to escape via the border crossing into Egypt. ‘There is no cease-fire. We are continuing with our operational activity,’ Hagari said.
The U.S. State Department confirmed on Sunday that an undisclosed number of U.S. citizens are among the hostages. At least 30 U.S. nationals have been killed in the fighting, and 13 others remain unaccounted for. Still, U.S. President Joe Biden warned against a full Israeli occupation of Gaza, calling it a ‘big mistake’ even as the IDF prepares for a ground assault.
More than 1,400 Israelis and 2,600 Palestinians have been killed in the war thus far, with at least 10,000 people wounded on both sides. That number is expected to rise as Israel defends its decision to cut off electricity, fuel, and food into Gaza while ordering all residents of the territory to evacuate everywhere north of Wadi Gaza, including Gaza City.
Less than 100 miles north of Gaza, Israel declared a closed military zone along its northern border with Lebanon on Sunday, warning all Israeli civilians not to travel within about 2.5 miles of the border or risk being targeted. The decision follows strikes by Hezbollah, a Shiite Islamist group based in Lebanon, on Sunday that killed one Israeli. According to Hezbollah officials, the attack was in retaliation against Israeli strikes a day earlier that killed two Lebanese citizens and Reuters camera operator Issam Abdallah.” [Foreign Policy]
The World This Week
“Tuesday, Oct. 17: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts King Abdullah II of Jordan.
French President Emmanuel Macron meets with Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visits Lebanon.
Tuesday, Oct. 17, to Wednesday, Oct. 18: Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing.
Wednesday, Oct. 18: Xi meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee considers the nomination of Jacob Lew as the U.S. ambassador to Israel.
Wednesday, Oct. 18, to Thursday, Oct. 19: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visits North Korea.
Thursday, Oct. 19: The central banks of Indonesia and South Korea determine their interest rates.
Thursday, Oct. 19, to Sunday, Oct. 22: The Arctic Circle Assembly convenes in Reykjavik, Iceland.
Friday, Oct. 20: Biden hosts European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel.
Sunday, Oct. 22: Switzerland holds federal elections.
Venezuela holds primary elections for the opposition.
Argentina holds a general election.” [Foreign Policy]
“Turning the tide. Poland may soon see its greatest political shift in almost a decade, as exit polls from Sunday’s parliamentary vote show the Civic Coalition, a centrist opposition bloc headed by former European Council President Donald Tusk, on track to be able to form a coalition government with two other parties, ousting the ruling conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party.
PiS has been in power since 2015, during which time it has cracked down on LGBTQ rights, migration, and press freedom, eroding the country’s democratic practices as it pivoted away from European Union integration. A Civic Coalition win could see that trend reversed.
Meanwhile, Ecuadorians cast ballots in a presidential runoff on Sunday. Center-right business heir Daniel Noboa won 52 percent of the vote, promising to fight youth unemployment and rising crime rates. Ecuador’s election has been plagued by gang violence in recent months, culminating with the assassination of anti-corruption candidate Fernando Villavicencio on Aug. 9.” [Foreign Policy]
“Poland may have just delivered a welcome ray of autumn sunlight for the European Union as it confronts multiple crises at its borders: immigration, Ukraine and now the Israel-Hamas war.
A record turnout in yesterday’s election looks to have helped the pro-European opposition defeat the nationalist Law & Justice party that has ruled for eight years with a Poland First mentality.
While Law & Justice placed first, its coalition options are limited, with the upshot that the most consequential eastern EU member is poised to return to the Brussels mainstream just as the balance of power seems to be shifting Poland’s way.
That’s a fillip to the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, as it struggles to maintain aid for Ukraine and to balance support for Israel following Hamas’s attack with humanitarian concerns for Palestinian civilians.
Those external challenges won’t go away, but the election result can help instill European unity in addressing them.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the Law & Justice leader, habitually sewed European dissent, repeatedly clashing with Brussels while blocking EU attempts at immigration settlements and baiting Berlin.
His party’s likely ouster is a blow to right-wing populist forces across Europe, from Hungary to Italy and most recently Slovakia. Equally, it gives succour to embattled social democrats from Spain to neighboring Germany.
It’s a personal victory for Donald Tusk, the former European Council president whose Civic Platform will likely lead a new government.
Under Tusk, who cut his political teeth as a Solidarity activist facing down the Communist authorities in 1980s Gdansk, Poland promises to become a facilitator rather than a perennial obstacle to policy making.
More than that, Poland has a chance to fulfill its potential at a time when European leadership is in short supply.
As an EU heavyweight with a solid economy and a formidable military in the making, the winds are blowing in Warsaw’s favor.
Much of Europe may now be wishing that this is Poland’s moment.” — Alan Crawford [Bloomberg]
Tusk addresses a rally in Warsaw on Oct. 1. Photographer: Wojtek Radwanski/AFP/Getty Images
India’s Supreme Court refuses to legalize same-sex marriage, saying it is up to Parliament
“NEW DELHI (AP) — India’s top court on Tuesday refused to legalize same-sex marriages, passing the responsibility back to Parliament in a ruling that disappointed campaigners for LGBTQ+ rights in the world’s most populous country.
Chief Justice DY Chandrachud also urged the government to uphold the rights of the queer community and end discrimination against them.
Earlier this year, the five-judge bench heard 21 petitions that sought to legalize same-sex marriage….” Read more at AP News
“US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are weighing trips to Israel amid a global diplomatic push to prevent the war from escalating. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken returned to Tel Aviv today, after meeting Arab leaders to discuss the conflict and efforts to provide humanitarian assistance to people in Gaza.
The strain of the war is hitting no country in Europe harder than France, home to the largest Jewish and Muslim communities on the continent, with tensions embroiling everyone from school children to football players. Divisions are also on show in the US and the UK where there have been rival pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli rallies in major cities.” [Bloomberg]
Police detain people demonstrating in support of Palestinians at Place de la Republique in Paris on Saturday. Photographer: Ibrahim Ezzat/Anadolu/Getty Images
“‘Project of the century’ is how President Xi Jinping described his Belt and Road initiative when he first assembled world leaders to map out his vision for expanding Chinese soft power via a web of infrastructure investments in 2017. While the project has drawn $1 trillion in its first decade, as Xi opens the third forum on his brainchild in Beijing this week, its future looks uncertain.” [Bloomberg]
“A growing number of Britain’s super-rich are worried Keir Starmer will lead the next government, with his Labour Party enjoying a healthy polling lead ahead of a general election due by January 2025. Some are drawing up plans to cut ties to Britain if Starmer wins and implements proposals to scrap preferential tax treatment for ‘non-doms’ — rich UK residents whose permanent home is considered to be abroad.” [Bloomberg]
“The scion of a wealthy fruit-exporting dynasty, Daniel Noboa, beat his socialist opponent Luisa Gonzalez in a runoff yesterday and will be Ecuador’s next president. The 35-year-old business leader, a political novice, will head a caretaker government until 2025 in a country besieged by powerful cocaine cartels, struggling to service its debt, and beset by instability in congress.” [Bloomberg]
“The US plans to tighten sweeping measures to restrict China’s access to advanced semiconductors and chipmaking gear, seeking to prevent it from obtaining cutting-edge technologies that could give it a military edge.” [Bloomberg]
“Scotland’s nationalists shifted strategy in their quest to force a new vote on independence as leader Humza Yousaf tries to unite his activists and see off the threat of a resurgent Labour Party.” [Bloomberg]
“As its economic meltdown continues, unabated mass migration is robbing Zimbabwe, once one of Africa’s most educated countries, of the scarce skills it needs to engineer a turnaround.” [Bloomberg]
“Earthquake devastation. Afghanistan’s Herat province was once again rocked by two powerful earthquakes on Sunday, the fourth and fifth such quakes it has experienced in just over a week. At least four people were killed and 153 others wounded, adding to an estimated 1,300 people killed when the first two earthquakes struck the region on Oct. 7. A third earthquake hit just days later.
With the latest quakes’ epicenters just 21 miles outside of Herat, Afghanistan’s third-largest city, the province is struggling to recover. More than 90 percent of victims have been women and children, UNICEF Afghanistan reported, and that’s not accounting for the psychological toll that five almost back-to-back catastrophes could have on a population already facing dire humanitarian and economic crises.” [Foreign Policy]
“Heading home. Four Ukrainian children returned to their families on Monday after Qatari officials negotiated their release from Russia. The children, ages 2 to 17, were living at the Qatari Embassy in Moscow while Doha negotiated their release. Qatar has increasingly stepped forward as a mediator for international conflicts in recent months, with its previous efforts helping to secure a U.S.-Iran prisoner swap in August.
In March, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Putin and Russia’s human rights commissioner for forcibly transferring Ukrainian children, deemed a war crime under international law. The warrant has since restricted Putin’s travel, including by forcing him to send Lavrov to the so-called BRICS summit in South Africa in his stead. However, Putin will travel to China on Tuesday for the Belt and Road Forum, his first time visiting a country not formerly part of the Soviet Union since the warrant was issued.” [Foreign Policy]
“Apple’s new iPhone 15 is selling far worse in China than its predecessor, reflecting stubbornly weak consumption as well as the rise of rivals like Huawei. Sales of Apple’s flagship device are down 4.5% compared with the iPhone 14 over their first 17 days after release.” [Bloomberg]
Photographer: Manaure Quintero/Bloomberg
Mapping the brain
Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios
“Scientists have completed a census of the cells in the human brain — a key step in creating a detailed map of the organ where our thoughts, movements and emotions originate, Axios managing editor Alison Snyder writes.
Why it matters: Scientists say this parts list will help provide much-needed insights into diseases and disorders that affect the brain.
How it works: Researchers studied 100 tissue samples from different regions across the human brain.” [Axios]