The Full Belmonte, 10/16/2023
People carry children as they flee an Israeli strike on Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on October 15, 2023.
Israel
“Conditions in Gaza have deteriorated into a ‘complete catastrophe,’ aid workers say, as hundreds of thousands of Palestinians try to flee south. Israel has vowed to wipe out Hamas, the Islamist group that controls the enclave, in response to its unprecedented October 7 terrorist attacks that killed 1,400 people in Israel. In Gaza, half a million residents have left the northern part of the region and more than 2,600 people have died in Israeli airstrikes, Palestinian officials said. President Joe Biden on Sunday warned Israel against occupying Gaza in one of his most notable public calls for restraint, calling the potential move a ‘big mistake.’ Sources also tell CNN that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has invited Biden to visit Israel soon, but it remains unclear if or when such a possible trip might occur.”
Biden warns Israel against occupying Gaza
Scott Pelley interviews President Biden at the White House on Thursday. Photo: CBS News
“Hamas must be eliminated but an Israeli occupation of Gaza would be ‘a big mistake,’ President Biden told CBS' Scott Pelley in an interview broadcast last night on ‘60 Minutes.’
Why it matters: Israel is preparing an ‘air, sea and land’ invasion of Gaza that's aimed at destroying Hamas after the terrorist attack of Oct. 7, with street-by-street fighting expected to produce massive casualties.
Biden said ‘there needs to be a path to a Palestinian state,’ and that ‘Hamas and the extreme elements of Hamas don't represent all the Palestinian people,’ Axios' Rebecca Falconer writes.
He said that ‘taking out the extremists’ is ‘a necessary requirement.’ But he called for a humanitarian corridor that allows some Gazans out of the region, and for humanitarian supplies to be brought in.
Michael Herzog, the Israeli ambassador to the U.S., told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union" yesterday: ‘We have no desire to occupy or reoccupy Gaza. We have no desire to rule over the lives of over 2 million Palestinians. And, certainly, we want people to go back to their homes.’
Pelley asked Biden whether the threat of terrorism in the U.S. had increased because of the Middle East fighting.
‘Yes,’ Biden replied, saying he had just held a meeting in the Situation Room with FBI and homeland security officials to discuss how to ‘make sure that we prevent a lone wolf and/or any coordinated effort to try to do what was done in synagogues before — do what was done to Jews in the street. We're making a major effort to make sure that doesn't happen.’” [Axios]
Photo: Allen J. Schaben/L.A. Times via Getty Images
Above: Drone's-eye view of an Israel Solidarity March yesterday at the Simon Wiesenthal Center's Museum of Tolerance in Los Angeles.
Axios explains: How Israel's Iron Dome works
Graphic: Kavya Beheraj and Sarah Grillo/Axios. Icons: Mahmut Resul Karaca/Getty Images
“Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system in the past 10 days has likely intercepted thousands of rockets and missiles launched from Gaza, Axios' Jacob Knutson writes.
Why it matters: For over a decade, the multibillion-dollar system has been crucial in defending Israeli cities and preventing numerous casualties.
The all-weather mobile system was designed to destroy short-ranged projectiles — rockets, missiles and artillery — launched primarily from Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
It works through a combination of radar to detect incoming threats and batteries that launch interceptor missiles carrying proximity warheads.
The batteries can neutralize threats launched from up to 43 miles away.
Israel has at least 10 batteries placed around the country to protect civilians and critical infrastructure, with each battery able to defend up to nearly 60 square miles of land.
A complete battery costs an estimated $100 million.” [Axios]
Hate crimes
“A Chicago-area landlord has been charged with hate crimes after fatally stabbing a 6-year-old Palestinian boy and wounding his mom, allegedly because they were Muslim. The US Justice Department has opened a federal hate crime investigation into the attack. The Will County, Illinois, Sheriff's Office said the victims were targeted by the 71-year-old suspect due to their faith and ‘the on-going Middle Eastern conflict involving Hamas and the Israelis.’ President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden said they were ‘shocked and sickened’ by the attack and offered their condolences to the family in a statement released by the White House. This comes amid an uptick over the past week in rhetoric targeting ‘Jewish people as well as Muslim institutions,’ FBI Director Christopher Wray said Sunday.” [CNN]
House speaker
Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, speaks to reporters after departing from a GOP caucus meeting working to formally elect a new speaker of the House.
Amanda Andrade-Rhoades-USA TODAY
“The divided House of Representatives is now in its 13th day operating without a speaker. The latest candidate, Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, will apparently try to force a floor vote on Tuesday, despite lacking the support needed to win the gavel. One GOP source said Jordan may decide to go to multiple ballots on the floor if necessary. Jordan initially ran against House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, who went on to become the GOP speaker nominee — but the Louisiana Republican dropped out of the race abruptly last week after facing a bloc of hardened opposition.” [CNN]
Judge to hear arguments about Donald Trump gag order in election conspiracy case
“U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan will hear arguments Monday about whether to place a gag order on Donald Trump as requested by prosecutors to avoid influencing his trial on election conspiracy charges. Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith asked for the order to stop Trump’s speeches and statements on social media that attack witnesses, prosecutors and the judge in ways that can sometimes provoke his supporters to threaten violence. But Trump opposed the order as political interference and a violation of his First Amendment right to speech in the 2024 presidential campaign.” Read more at USA Today
Arizona tribe protests decision not to prosecute Border Patrol agents who fatally shot Raymond Mattia
“Federal prosecutors won’t file charges against U.S. Border Patrol agents who shot and killed a member of the Tohono O’odham Nation just steps outside his home earlier this year, sparking outrage from the tribe who called the decision ‘a travesty of justice.’ Three Border Patrol agents shot Raymond Mattia nine times on May 18 after he lobbed a sheathed machete in front of a Tohono O’odham Nation Police Department officer. Body-camera footage released in June revealed that the agents who fatally shot Mattia were concerned he may have been carrying a firearm but none had been found.” Read more at USA Today
People gather outside of the Ajo Border Patrol Station to protest the fatal Border Patrol shooting of Raymond Mattia, a Tohono O'odham Nation member who was killed on May 18, 2023, near Ajo, Arizona.
Joe Rondone/The Republic
Highest gun death rates are in South
Data: Center for American Progress Action Fund. Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals
“The cities with the highest firearm homicide rates are clustered in the South, generally in red states with less restrictive gun laws, Axios' Caitlin Owens writes from an analysis by the left-leaning Center for American Progress that was provided exclusively to Axios.
Why it matters: The report argues that the findings refute Republican narratives that progressive policies stoke more crime in cities.
By the numbers: The average gun homicide rate in blue-state cities was 7.2 per 100,000 residents from 2015 to 2022, the analysis found. In red-state cities, it was 11.1 deaths per 100,000.
Reality check: Gun homicide rates were higher overall in blue cities — as defined by the mayor's party affiliation — than in red ones.
St. Louis had America's highest gun homicide rate in 2022, followed by Birmingham, Ala.; New Orleans; Jackson, Miss.; and Baltimore.” [Axios]
Afghanistan quake
“A powerful 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck Afghanistan on Sunday, just days after another deadly quake devastated its western Herat province. With the region already reeling from recent seismic activity, global aid groups and rescue teams say the country is now facing an escalating humanitarian crisis, on top of war and a collapsed economy. Taliban government officials estimate that more than 2,000 people across Herat province have been killed; more than 90% of those were women and children, according to UN agencies and officials on the ground.” [CNN]
All eyes on Rafah border crossing
Reopening the crossing would allow some dual-national Palestinians to return home. Credit: Reuters
“On one side of the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza, dozens of trucks are waiting in line to bring humanitarian aid to Palestinians. On the other side, thousands of Palestinians wait to escape the siege and bombing of the Hamas-controlled territory, launched by Israel in retaliation for the civilian massacre the militants perpetrated on 7 October. It's unclear when the crossing might open. Egypt is seeking a ceasefire that would guarantee the safety of its staff, but neither Israeli nor Hamas officials have committed to a pause in the fighting. As people in Gaza desperately look for a safe place - as described by filmmaker Bisan Owda - Israel has issued an evacuation order for residents of villages near the northern border with Lebanon. Many had already left, concerned about the ongoing exchanges of fire between the Israeli army and Hezbollah militants. Follow our live page for the latest news.
•Civilian convoy footage: The BBC Verify team has looked into reports of a strike on vehicles carrying civilians to southern Gaza, and confirmed the attack occurred along one of two evacuation routes on Friday evening.
•Dignity in death: Zaka's volunteers have been working non-stop since the Hamas attack in southern Israel to collect every part of the remains of the victims, so they can be buried in accordance with Jewish religious law.
•Disinformation spreaders: Social media correspondent Marianna Springlooks into the online accounts spreading false narratives about the Israel-Gaza conflict.” [BBC]
The United States is set to ease sanctions for Venezuela in exchange for freer elections
“The Biden administration and the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro have agreed to a deal in which the United States would ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry and Maduro would allow a competitive, internationally monitored presidential election next year, according to two people familiar with the breakthrough talks.”
Read more at Washington Post
By German Lopez
Good morning. We’re covering the end of a Republican advantage —
A voting district map. Jeffrey Collins/Associated Press
Fading advantage
“Republicans have been more successful than Democrats since 2010 at gerrymandering congressional districts to their advantage. But the Republican advantage may be about to fade because of a few court cases.
In Alabama, the U.S. Supreme Court forced officials to redraw the map to add one majority Black (and therefore Democratic-leaning) district. In New York, Democrats are trying to redraw the map to flip several seats. In Florida, Georgia and Louisiana, other legal challenges could help Democrats.
If everything goes Democrats’ way, roughly 10 House seats could become meaningfully easier to win. Next year, the party needs to net only five seats to reclaim the House. New York alone could switch six seats from leaning Republican to leaning Democrat.
Not every court case is hurting Republicans. In North Carolina, a ruling from the state’s Supreme Court will allow Republican lawmakers to redraw the map to move several seats their way. In South Carolina, liberal groups have taken the state’s Republican gerrymander to the U.S. Supreme Court; but the court’s conservative majority appears likely to side with Republicans, based on oral arguments last week.
Still, the overall picture looks promising for Democrats. ‘The House map is pretty equitable now, certainly more so than it was 10 years ago,’ David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report told me. If the cases go in Democrats’ favor, he added, ‘it could make the House map even a little bit bluer on balance than a random map would be.’
In 2022, Republicans won about 51 percent of the popular vote in House elections nationwide — and about 51 percent of House seats. (My colleague Nate Cohn broke down those results.)
Swinging back
In some ways, the recent gerrymandering developments are the pendulum swinging back.
States typically update congressional maps once a decade, after each U.S. census. In 2010, Republicans swept state elections just in time for the redrawing of maps. They took full advantage, drawing congressional districts in their favor.
After the 2020 census, Republicans remained in power in more states than Democrats. But after the gerrymanders of the 2010s, Republicans could not do much more to skew the maps.
Meanwhile, legal challenges from liberal groups diminished the Republican gerrymanders. Some states, like Michigan, embraced independent redistricting commissions that drew more balanced maps. Democrats also used their control of some state governments, including in Illinois and Oregon, to aggressively redraw maps.
‘Republicans are not the only ones who gerrymander,’ Claire Wofford, a political scientist at the College of Charleston, told me.
Of course, Democrats will still need to win elections next year. The balance of gerrymandering is likely to determine control of the House only if the national vote is close.
What’s next
Here are three major stories to watch in coming months:
New York: The case moving through the courts would likely affect six seats, the most in any current dispute. A lower court already ruled in Democrats’ favor, and the state’s highest court is set to hear the case in November. Democrats now hold 11 of the state’s 26 congressional seats.
North Carolina: Republicans are set to redraw the map in the next month, and could flip three or four seats in their favor. Republicans currently hold seven of the state’s 14 congressional seats.
Time: If Republicans stall legal challenges for long enough, the maps may not change before the 2024 election. ‘There is more potential upside for Democrats right now than for Republicans,’ said Stephen Wolf, an elections writer at Daily Kos, ‘but there are too many unresolved court cases to say yet what will likely happen.’
More on 2024
Donald Trump has entered October with nearly as much campaign cash as the rest of the Republican field combined.
Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia, a debt-ridden coal magnate who has switched parties twice, is running for U.S. senate.
Polls show few voters are aware of President Biden’s record on climate issues. One advocacy group plans to spend big to change that.” [New York Times]
Union power rising
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Includes lockouts. Based on year stoppage began. Workers are counted for each stoppage they are involved in per year.) Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios
“More than 330,000 American workers — from Hollywood actors to medical technicians — have been part of strikes since the start of September, Axios' April Rubin and Tory Lysik report from Cornell's labor tracker.
Why it matters: Labor unions enjoying their highest approval ratings in generations are deploying hardball tactics in far-reaching sectors of the economy.
By the numbers: The number of workers on strike has increased nearly 10-fold since 2021, according to the Cornell data.
Jan. 1 to Oct. 11, 2021: 188 strikes involving about 47,800 workers.
Jan. 1 to Oct. 11, 2022: 345 strikes involving about 126,800 workers.
Jan. 1 to Oct. 11, 2023: 318 strikes involving about 468,200 workers.
The big picture: Before the 1980s, more than a million workers regularly went on strike annually.
Between 2000 and 2017, the average number of workers on strike shrunk to about 100,000 per year.
Data: Cornell Labor Action Tracker. Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals
Ongoing strikes: The United Auto Workers union said last week that it could expand the strike against Detroit's Big Three automakers "at any time" — a shift for the union, which had been announcing new locations on Fridays.
UAW: Nearly 34,000 UAW members are participating in a strike against the Detroit Three automakers. The strike began on Sept. 15 with 13,000 workers.
SAG-AFTRA: The actors guild, which represents 160,000 members, has been on strike since July. Actors and major studios suspended contract talks on Friday.
Recent strikes: Two large-scale strikes — screenwriters and health care workers — ended in the past month.
Writers Guild of America: 11,500+ striking TV and film writers became eligible to work last month after a 148-day-long walkout.
Kaiser Permanente: About 75,000 people who work for the nation's largest nonprofit health system went on strike for three days last week — the largest health worker strike in U.S. history. The unions and company said last week that they had reached a tentative labor agreement.” [Axios]
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
For one Sunday, the good teams are bad
“Coming into this week, we had a clear NFL hierarchy: Eagles and 49ers good. Some people pretty good. Everyone else meh.
Turns out we know nothing. The Bills, who we’d thought were in that middle category, nearly lost to the 1-5 Giants, who’d been forced to start backup QB Tyrod Taylor in Daniel Jones’ absence. Buffalo survived, 14-9, and advanced to 4-2 after a frankly baffling end to the game.
It was nowhere close to our biggest surprise yesterday, though:
In Cleveland, the 3-2 Browns upended the previously undefeated 49ers, 19-17, and did so with their own backup quarterback, P.J. Walker. Let me repeat: A guy signed off the practice squad (and most known for his XFL stint) beat the Super Bowl favorite. This is easily the most surprising result of the season thus far. Brock Purdy finally turned in a shaky performance, Cleveland’s defense was awesome and San Francisco rookie kicker Jake Moody — drafted in the third round this year — missed a potential 41-yard game-winning field goal. Oof.
In New York, the 3-3 Jets ensured no team will go undefeated this year. The Eagles’ 20-14 loss was almost as surprising as the Niners’ defeat, but New York has proved a thorny out, even with Zach Wilson at quarterback. He was fine yesterday, but it was the Jets defense that won — Jalen Hurts threw three picks. Philly has had three close-call wins already this year. A stinker was due.
Two questions after Sunday’s action:
Who’s our best team? The 5-1 Lions look shiny right now. Their 20-6 win over the 3-2 Buccaneers ties them for the league’s best record, and it’s worth pointing out their lone loss was in overtime against the 3-2 Seahawks.
Did the Panthers choose wrong? Carolina fell to 0-6 after a 42-21 loss to the 5-1 Miami Dolphins — who are also in the best-team convo — and look listless with No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young at quarterback. The Panthers insist Young is still their guy, but it’s a little too easy to see No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud flourishing for the 3-3 Texans and wonder.
See all our Week 6 takeaways here, including the still-depressing Patriots and the continuing Bengals resurgence. Also, justice for Tyreek Hill’s backflip selfie touchdown celebration, which we might never actually see.
P.S. We’ll keep you updated on Damien Harris, the Bills running back carted off with a neck injury last night, on the same field where Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest last season.” [The Athletic]
Strike One
Who's stopping the Rangers?
“The MLB playoffs are intent on one thing: telling us regular-season greatness doesn’t matter, at least not this year. The Braves, Orioles and Dodgers are gone. The Houston Astros, AL Central champs and defending World Series titleholders, are the last old power left.
Last night, the Texas Rangers shrugged at those accomplishments, doing what they’ve done all postseason: win. A 2-0 Rangers victory in Houston gives them a surprising 1-0 lead in the ALCS, putting them just three wins away from the World Series. Two things:
Texas has not lost a game in these playoffs. The Rangers swept the Rays and Orioles. Starter Jordan Montgomery was sensational last night, throwing 6.1 scoreless innings. I doubt they sweep this series, but they’re on a special tear.
The thing is … this isn’t that surprising. The Astros, despite inhabiting the same division, had not seen this version of the Rangers in the regular season, the playoff team arguably playing better than anyone left. The two teams also finished with the same record, 90-72, though Houston’s 9-4 head-to-head advantage broke the tie.
The Rangers also added Max Scherzer to the ALCS roster yesterday morning. He could be an option for Game 3.
We get two games tonight:
Rangers at Astros
4:37 p.m. ET on FOX/FS1Diamondbacks at Phillies
8:07 p.m. ET on TBS [The Athletic]
Patrick Fallon/AFP via Getty Images
“Residents in parts of the U.S. saw a rare "ring of fire" in the sky this weekend during the annular solar eclipse. There won't be another one in the country until 2039, but a total solar eclipse will be viewable next year. If you couldn't witness it in person, check out photos of the sky here.
Those without sight could hear the eclipse, thanks to a "Lightsound box" created by University of Texas at San Antonio students. Listen to what a solar eclipse sounds like. (via Texas Public Radio)” [NPR]
Rite Aid files for bankruptcy
Rite Aid in Queens, N.Y., last month. Photo: Lindsey Nicholson/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images
“Rite Aid filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection yesterday and said it plans to close ‘underperforming stores’ while coping with falling sales and opioid-related lawsuits, Axios' Kelly Tyko writes.
Why it matters: The Philadelphia-based drugstore chain's bankruptcy filing comes as it faces federal, state and other lawsuits tied to allegedly filling unlawful prescriptions for controlled substances, including opioids.
Rite Aid named restructuring specialist Jeffrey Stein as the new CEO.
The company employs 6,100 pharmacists and operates more than 2,100 retail pharmacies across 17 states.” [Axios]
Book: Oprah pondered run with Mitt
Oprah Winfrey speaks at the 92nd Street Y in Manhattan last month. Photo: Christopher Smith/Invision/AP
“Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) tells the author of a forthcoming book that Oprah Winfrey suggested he join her on a unity presidential ticket in 2020 to stop then-President Trump's reelection.
In ‘Romney: A Reckoning,’ out a week from tomorrow, McKay Coppins writes that Romney told him Winfrey, a Democrat, made a pitch to run together ‘to save the country,’ according to a source familiar with the manuscript.
Why it matters: The book is based on dozens of hours of interviews with Romney, along with his diaries and journals — rare access to the real-time communications of a sitting officeholder.
Romney tells Coppins he dismissed the idea, believing that such a campaign would inadvertently help Trump.
Reality check: A source familiar with Winfrey's thinking said she was never serious about running — although some close to her thought she should.” [Axios]
Top ‘food-forward’ cities
Data: Datassential. Chart: Axios Visuals
“San Francisco is the country's most ‘food-forward’ city, according to a new analysis by food consultancy Datassential.
That doesn't necessarily mean the city has the best food — just that it has the greatest diversity of cuisines, lots of ‘emerging’ foods, and residents who seek out gustatory novelty, Axios' Jennifer A. Kingson writes.
Why it matters: Cities derive economic strength and attract residents based partly on culinary chops.
So rankings like this can drive investment and draw talented chefs.” [Axios]
Suzanne Somers, who starred in “Three’s Company,” died yesterday.
Somers in 2016. (Danny Moloshok/Reuters)
“How we’ll remember her: As Chrissy Snow in the 1970s sitcom. She later became known for her commercials for ThighMaster, a fitness device she marketed in the 1990s.
What we know: The 76-year-old died after a decades-long battle with breast cancer. She updated her fans about her treatment in a July Instagram post.”
Read this story at Washington Post
Taylor Swift’s “Eras Tour” film had a big opening weekend.
“The numbers: It racked up an estimated $95 million to $97 million at the domestic box office, making it the highest-grossing domestic release of a concert film.
Not seen it yet? Our critic Ann Hornaday called the movie ‘astonishing.’ Videos of fans dancing, singing and making heart hands at the screen went viral over the weekend.”
Read this story at Washington Post