The Full Belmonte, 10/14/2022
“Summing up arguments in what may be its last public hearing, the Jan. 6 committee on Thursday made no bones about who it considers ultimately responsible for the deadly 2021 attack on the US Capitol. The message was crystallized in the words of Wyoming Republican Liz Cheney: ‘The central cause of Jan. 6 was one man,’ she said. ‘Donald Trump.’ Despite the deletion of Secret Service texts and emails from the day before and day of the insurrection, the committee said it was able to obtain records showing the agency had learned of plans to breach the Capitol. Representative Adam Schiff of California said Congress has almost 1 million emails, recordings and other electronic records from the Secret Service that it continues to review.
Followers of Donald Trump at the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg
They included emails the Secret Service received on Dec. 24 and Dec. 26 of 2020 saying Trump followers were ‘armed and ready’ and ‘their plan is to literally kill people.’ There were also tips that the far-right group known as the Proud Boys planned to march with weapons to the Capitol, Schiff said. Trump was well aware of the looming catastrophe and chose to urge it on, according to testimony and evidence presented over the course of five months. His actions that day were allegedly part of a broader effort to discard the victory of Joe Biden and cling to power. It was a conspiracy, the committee said, that began well before the election was held in November 2020. At the conclusion of today’s hearing, the panel’s members held a dramatic vote, and in what may prove to be a symbolic gesture, unanimously agreed to subpoena Trump.” —David E. Rovella Read more at Bloomberg
5 takeaways from the latest Jan. 6 hearing
Analysis by Aaron Blake
“The House Jan. 6 select committee on Thursday held what is expected to be its final hearing focused on new evidence gleaned from its investigation.
Below are some takeaways about what we learned and how the committee closed its argument.
Trump’s premature — and premeditated — declaration of victory
Much of Thursday’s hearing was devoted to establishing Trump’s mind-set leading up to Jan. 6, 2021. And a big part of that was the committee casting his false, election-night declaration of victory as part of a premeditated plan.
We’ve known that the likes of Roger Stone and Stephen K. Bannon were talking about this well before Election Day. And news outlets had reported at the time that Trump might do it. But on Thursday, the committee added to the publicly available evidence.
In taped testimony, a top aide to Vice President Mike Pence, Greg Jacob, acknowledged that the possibility had felt imminent enough that Pence’s aides discussed how to deal with it.
Jacob said fellow aide Marc Short ‘was trying to figure out a way of avoiding the vice president being thrust into needing to opine on that.’
The committee also shared an email from Tom Fitton, head of the conservative group Judicial Watch, to White House aides Dan Scavino and Molly Michael. The email was dated Oct. 31 — days before Election Day — and featured the words ‘We had an election today — and I won.’ It suggested that Trump should claim that the ballots ‘counted by the Election Day deadline’ showed he had won.
In a follow-up email, from Nov. 3, Fitton indicated he had spoken with Trump about the matter: ‘Just talked to him about the draft below.’
The idea was ridiculous. There is no Election Day deadline for ballots to be counted. In fact, the ballot-counting process regularly takes much longer. But pretty much everyone knew that Trump’s strength on in-person voting — vs. President Biden’s strength on later-counted mail-in votes — would create a ‘red mirage’ of Trump holding a lead on election night.
In other words, claiming the deadline existed was a great way to mislead people and foment outrage.
Committee member Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) summarized: ‘It was a plan concocted in advance to convince his supporters that he won.’
2. Hutchinson adds to evidence Trump knew he lost
Previous hearings had focused on all the witnesses testifying that Trump was told his voter-fraud claims were false.
On Thursday, the committee made an additional argument: Trump occasionally, privately admitted that he lost the election — and still pressed forward with publicly claiming it had been stolen.
The committee played a never-before-seen clip from one of its star witnesses, former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson. She said that after the Supreme Court declined to overturn the election in December 2020, she witnessed a conversation in which Trump asked chief of staff Mark Meadows to do something.
According to Hutchinson, Trump said something to the effect of: ‘I don’t want people to know we lost, Mark. This is embarrassing. Figure it out. We need to figure it out. I don’t want people to know that we lost.’
Hutchinson noted that this wasn’t a verbatim quote, but she said twice that Trump had spoken in terms that indicated that he knew he’d lost.
She added that, at another point, Meadows told her of Trump: ‘He knows it’s over. He knows he lost. But we’re going to keep trying. There’s some good options out there.’
Former Trump White House aide Alyssa Farah Griffin also testified to this effect.
The committee also revealed that Trump had signed an order Nov. 11, 2020, requesting the immediate removal of troops from Somalia and Afghanistan — and that the withdrawal be completed by Jan. 15, 2021, before Biden’s inauguration. This was an acknowledgment, they said, that he knew the truth about his loss and was trying to conclude any unfinished business.
Committee member Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) said at the outset of the hearing that nobody should accept that Trump was deluded and sincerely thought he won.
‘Claims that President Trump actually thought the election was stolen are not supported by fact and are not a defense,’ Cheney said. ‘There is no defense that Donald Trump was duped or irrational.’
3. More evidence Trump might’ve approved of rioters
Somewhat relatedly, the committee played new evidence corroborating the idea that Trump might have approved of what the rioters were doing — or at least that he sought to use it as leverage.
Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) has previously said House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told people that, as he pleaded for Trump to call off the rioters, the president responded, ‘Well, Kevin, I guess these people are more upset about the election than you are.’
McCarthy has been tight-lipped about that conversation. But former Trump White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney testified to the committee that, shortly after Jan. 6, McCarthy personally recounted to him much the same exchange. ‘I had a conversation at some point in the day or week after the riot with Kevin McCarthy,’ Mulvaney said. ‘It was very similar to what Jamie had, the conversation she had retold.’
The committee has presented other evidence that Trump might have liked the scenes at the Capitol, including former White House counsel Pat Cipollone awkwardly responding to questions about whether Trump actually wanted the rioters to go home. (The committee played that clip for the second time Thursday.)
Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) has also said publicly that Trump was ‘walking around the White House confused about why other people on his team weren’t as excited as he was.’
4. The committee leans in on the Secret Service
Toward the end of the hearing, the committee focused on a trove of new information from the Secret Service that it had received since its last hearing.
Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Calif.) pointed to multiple documents showing that agents expressed concerns about the Jan. 6 rally more than a week before. In records of internal Secret Service chatter, there were discussions of social media posts in which rallygoers said they planned to bring weapons.
He said that this not only reinforces that Trump would’ve been informed of such threats and directed people to march to the Capitol anyway — which Hutchinson testified to — but that this called into question previous testimony from Secret Service and White House witnesses, who said that they hadn’t received information suggesting that the officials under their protection were in danger.
‘Evidence strongly suggests that this testimony is not credible,’ Schiff said.
Schiff didn’t name names, but it seems possible the comments were aimed at then-Secret Service agent and Trump White House official Anthony M. Ornato. Sources close to Ornato had previously disputed testimony from former White House aide Hutchinson about what Ornato had told her about that day.
The committee also played video of Trump praising the Secret Service during his Jan. 6 speech on the Ellipse. The implication seemed to be that perhaps certain members of the Secret Service might have been too close to Trump. That’s something Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) has also gestured in the direction of — particularly with regard to Pence’s refusal to get into a Secret Service vehicle that day.
Later, Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) emphasized that the committee would continue to investigate matters related to the Secret Service documents it obtained.
5. The vote to subpoena Trump
At the start of the proceedings, Chairman Bennie G. Thompson (D-Miss.) noted this would not technically be a hearing, but rather committee business. This committee intended to vote on taking further investigative action.
That action turned out to be a subpoena of Trump himself, which was approved unanimously by the committee.
The significance of that isn’t clear. Some incumbent and former presidents have testified to Congress, but Trump will likely resist testifying, which would force the committee into a lengthy process of trying to compel his testimony. That kind of timeline wouldn’t really comport with its intent to release a report before the end of the year. (That timeline is important, given that Republicans could retake the House after the midterm elections and shut down the committee.)
It seems more likely that this is more a matter of course. It’s the committee saying, ‘We gave the former president the chance to defend himself’ ahead of its final report, and emphasizing that he declined to do so.” Read at Washington Post
"Do you believe this?"
Screenshot: MSNBC
“Today's Jan. 6 surprise: New footage of congressional leaders in both parties huddling and calling governors and Trump officials to try to calm the violence.
‘Do you believe this?’ Speaker Pelosi asked House Democratic Whip Jim Clyburn after being told members were putting on gas masks.
‘There has to be some way we can maintain the sense that people have that there is some security or some confidence that government can function, and that you can elect the president of the United States,’ she said.
Screenshot: C-SPAN
In a made-for-TV spectacle, the committee ended today by unanimously voting to subpoena former President Trump, Axios' Erin Doherty and Jennifer Koons report.
‘He is the one person at the center of the story of what happened on Jan. 6. So we want to hear from him,’ said Chair Bennie Thompson.
Zoom out: This subpoena is largely symbolic, Axios' Alayna Treene and Andrew Solender report.
The committee is showing they sought to hear from Trump himself — with the knowledge that doing so will force a response from his team.
Trump wrote today in a post on his Truth Social app: ‘Why didn’t the Unselect Committee ask me to testify months ago? Why did they wait until the very end, the final moments of their last meeting?’” Read more at Axios
Stunning images of leaders in hiding
Image: House Select Committee via AP
“Historic video of congressional leaders in a secure location — made bydocumentarian Alexandra Pelosi, Speaker Pelosi's daughter — was played during the House Jan. 6 committee's fall season-opener.” Read more at Axios
Above: Speaker Pelosi, then-Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) talk into a phone to acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller.
Photo: House Select Committee via AP
Alexandra Pelosi ‘was present to capture her mother during the historic day,’ the WashPost's Jacqueline Alemany tweeted.
Photo: House Select Committee via AP
Parkland school shooter spared from execution for killing 17
By TERRY SPENCER
“FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — A divided jury spared Florida school shooter Nikolas Cruz the death penalty Thursday for killing 17 people at a Parkland high school in 2018, sending him to prison for the rest of his life in a decision that left many families of the victims angered, baffled and in tears.
‘This is insane. Everyone knows right?’ Chen Wang, 14-year-old shooting victim Peter Wang’s cousin, yelled during a news conference after the decision was read. ‘We need justice.’
Cruz, 24, pleaded guilty a year ago to murdering 14 students and three staff members, and wounding 17 others, at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School on Feb. 14, 2018.
The three-month trial included graphic videos and photos from the massacre and its aftermath, heart-wrenching testimony from victims’ family members and a tour of the still blood-spattered building. The jury rejected the death penalty after deliberating for about seven hours over two days.” Read more at AP News
Police: 5 killed, including officer, in N. Carolina shooting
By HANNAH SCHOENBAUM and STEFANIE DAZIO
“RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — Five people were killed by a shooter who opened fire along a walking trail in North Carolina’s capital city and eluded officers for hours before he was cornered in a home and arrested, police said.
An off-duty police officer was among those killed Thursday by the suspect, who police only described as a white, juvenile male. He was arrested around 9:37 p.m., authorities said. His identity and age weren’t released. North Carolina law defines a juvenile as anyone under age 18.
The gunfire broke out around 5 p.m. along the Neuse River Greenway in a residential area northeast of downtown, Raleigh Mayor Mary-Ann Baldwin said. Officers from numerous law enforcement agencies swarmed the area, closing roads and warning residents to stay inside while they searched for the shooter.
Two people, including another police officer, were taken to hospitals. The officer was later released, but the other survivor remained in critical condition.” Read more at AP News
“A closely watched measure of US consumer prices rose by more than forecast to a 40-year high last month, pressuring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even more aggressively. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 6.6% from a year ago, the highest level since 1982. From a month earlier, the core CPI climbed 0.6%. On the heels of a solid jobs report last week and record-low unemployment, the inflation data likely cement an additional 75-basis point interest rate hike at the Fed’s November policy meeting. Markets oddly skyrocketed rather than tanked. Here’s your markets wrap.” Read more at Bloomberg
“It took several days of market carnage before Washington rolled out a Commerce Department official to explain its thinking on curbing Beijing’s access to chip technology.
The calming words on offer yesterday couldn’t mask the fact that US strategy on China has taken a dramatic turn, one that asks a lot of its allies.
Key reading:
America Is Unleashing Its Economic Arsenal Against China, Russia
Taiwan Urges Calm on TSMC, Downplays Impact of Biden Chip Rules
Sweeping new US restrictions were announced last Friday on sales of semiconductors and chipmaking equipment to China. The consequent market meltdown is tantamount to the fact they add up to the most drastic round of technology curbs on Beijing to date.
Chip stocks erased more than $240 billion in global market value at one point this week. Stocks later recovered, but the rout left a dawning realization that US policy on China has hardened, and a new front has been opened.
Whereas the Trump administration imposed trade tariffs on Beijing and singled out Chinese companies like Huawei for sanctions, President Joe Biden is going further with broad restrictions on sales of chip technology that China needs to advance.
That approach affects US allies with any kind of tech business in China, effectively compelling them to comply or defy Washington. Chip-related stocks in key tech allies including South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Netherlands all plunged this week.
In a speech last month exhorting the use of export controls as ‘a new strategic asset,’ Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan listed three core technologies of US focus.
As well as computing — chips, AI and quantum — he singled out clean energy and biotechnology. Maintaining leadership in each area is a national security imperative, he said.
That’s a clear declaration that US-China rivalry is only set to intensify. — Alan Crawford
An employee inspects integrated circuitry boards at the Smart Pioneer Electronics factory in Suzhou, China, on Sept. 23. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
F.B.I. Monitored Aretha Franklin for Years, File Shows
Franklin’s recently released F.B.I. file reflects an era when the agency spied not only on civil rights leaders, political organizers and suspected Communists, but also on popular Black entertainers involved in civil rights activism.
Oct. 12, 2022
“Four days after the assassination of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., the Atlanta field office of the F.B.I. directed a memo to a trusted adviser of J. Edgar Hoover, describing plans for a ‘huge memorial concert’ at the Atlanta Braves’ stadium with Aretha Franklin, Sammy Davis Jr., Marlon Brando, Mahalia Jackson and the Supremes.
The memo, dated April 8, 1968, informed F.B.I. leadership that some in the group supported ‘militant Black power’ and most were in the ‘forefront of various civil rights movements.’
Citing an unnamed source, it said the concert by ‘these prominent performers” could create an “emotional spark which could ignite racial disturbance’ in Atlanta.
The concert never took place, but the memo to Cartha D. DeLoach, a close aide to Hoover, is part of Franklin’s 270-page F.B.I. file, which was released last month, four years after her death in 2018, at age 76.” Read more at New York Times
President Biden and Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.), a candidate for L.A. mayor, visit a taco shop in Westwood yesterday. Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
“25 days before the election, President Biden is skipping the raucous rallies President Obama and President Trump headlined before their first midterms, as they crisscrossed the country making closing arguments.
Instead, he's flexing his executive authority with targeted trips on Air Force One and White House decrees to boost key demographic groups, Axios' Hans Nichols reports.
At a stop today in Irvine, Calif., Biden will sign an executive order directing HHS to look at ways to lower prescription drug costs, according to a White House official.
Then he'll fly to Portland, Ore., where he'll accuse Republicans of planning to gut Medicare.
Why it matters: The swing is a chance for him to recast yesterday's blistering headline of 8.2% inflation by highlighting what his Inflation Reduction Act will do to lower prescription drug costs.
Between the lines: On the road, executive actions can be calibrated to a specific locality — or a key Senate race.
In Colorado on Wednesday, Biden declared the area surrounding Camp Hale a national monument, effectively preventing oil and gas drilling across some 436 square miles — and giving Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) a pre-election victory.
By the numbers: Biden has yet to headline any campaign rallies this month where he is in front of big audiences to make his closing argument.
By contrast, in October of 2018, President Trump held 15 rallies across the country, according to data compiled by Brendan Doherty, a U.S. Naval Academy professor.
President Obama hosted 12 rallies in October 2010.
But last week, Biden pardoned anyone convicted of a federal marijuana charge, acceding to a key demand from younger voters.
In August, after previously claiming that he needed congressional authorization to act on student loan relief, he announced he would cancel up to $20,000 in student debt.
The bottom line: With his approval rating underwater, Biden isn't landing Air Force One in battlegrounds where he’s underwater in the polls.
On a West Coast swing this week, he skipped Nevada and Arizona — two of the most competitive Senate races.” Read more at Axios
US and Mexico make deal to ease Venezuela migration
By Will Grant in Mexico & Tiffany Wertheimer in Singapore
“The US and Mexico have agreed to a plan that allows some Venezuelan migrants to enter the US - but those who arrive illegally will be sent back to Mexico.
It is hoped the deal will ease pressure at the US-Mexico border, where a steady flow of Venezuelans continues to arrive as they flee the crisis-hit nation.
Starting immediately, flights will be arranged for 24,000 migrants to arrive in the United States.
More than six million people have left Venezuela in the past five years.
The exodus is one of the largest migrations in the world, fuelled by violence, food, fuel and medicine shortages, and repression by the government of President Nicolás Maduro.
It has seen people desperate to improve their lives walking thousands of miles along dangerous routes to try to reach the US-Mexico border, where they then try to enter illegally or claim asylum.
Under the new deal, which is effective immediately, the 24,000 eligible Venezuelan migrants - a tiny fraction of those who have fled - will be allowed to access the US by air, and stay for up to two years.” Read more at BBC
“During the pandemic, the government issued nearly $800 billion in PPP loans to help small businesses keep workers employed. Officials promised a robust review process before forgiving these loans, but virtually all have been forgiven with a simple form, and only 2% have gotten close reviews.”
“Trump Org 2.0: The state of New York asked a judge to stop Trump from moving his business assets to a new holding company — ‘Trump Organization II LLC’ — amid a pending civil lawsuit. Go deeper.” Read more at Axios
“Global wildlife populations plummeted 69% since the 1970s, according to a new report published by the World Wide Fund for Nature (formerly World Wildlife Fund). Go deeper.” Read more at Axios
“Since emerging in late 2021, the highly transmissible omicron strain of Covid-19 has splintered into a dazzling array of subvariants. The proliferation of so many variants is unprecedented and pits numerous hyper-mutated iterations against each other in a race for dominance. The good news though is that Pfizer and its German vaccine partner BioNTech just announced that their latest booster, tailored to the latest omicron variants, raised more antibodies against the currently dominant strains of the coronavirus when compared with the original shot.” Read more at Bloomberg
Black leaders rebuke Tuberville stance on reparations, crime
By COREY WILLIAMS
“As far as Jeremy Ellis is concerned, Republican Tommy Tuberville should know or learn more about the long history and struggles of the Black Alabama residents he represents in the U.S. Senate.
Tuberville told people Saturday at an election rally in Nevada that Democrats support reparations for the descendants of enslaved people because ‘they think the people that do the crime are owed that.’
His remarks — seen by many as racist and stereotyping Black Americans as people committing crimes — cut deeply for some, especially in and around Africatown, a community in Mobile, Alabama, that was founded by descendants of Africans who were illegally smuggled into the United States in 1860 aboard a schooner called the Clotilda.
The 2019 discovery of the vessel in the muddy waters near Mobile offers the best argument for reparations of some type to the descendants of the enslaved people who survived the long and arduous Atlantic crossing.” Read more at AP News
“At least 15 countries mainly from the NATO military alliance, including the UK and the Netherlands, have signed a letter of intent to join a long-term German project to create a European anti-missile shield that would boost protection for much of the continent. The move follows escalations by Russia in its war on Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s veiled threats against Europe and the US.” Read more at Bloomberg
The aftermath of a missile strike in a residential area not far from Kyiv's main train station in Ukraine on Oct. 11. Photographer: Ed Ram/Getty Images
“Tightening race | Brazilian presidential contender Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro are trying to shore up support among the poor amid signs the race is tightening ahead of the Oct. 30 runoff. While opinion surveys show that Lula has a strong lead, major pollsters failed to fully capture support for the right-wing president in the first round.” Read more at Bloomberg
Lula supporters in Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday. Photographer: Andre Borges/Bloomberg
China Braces for 20th Party Congress
Banners featuring defiant political messages and sharp criticism of Chinese President Xi Jinping briefly dangled from an overpass in Beijing on Thursday, in a rare—and dangerous—expression of dissent just days before China’s 20th Party Congress on Sunday.
“The banners, which were surrounded by waves of smoke that drew attention to them, displayed slogans that demanded Xi’s removal and the end of China’s rigid zero-COVID policy. Photos of the protest initially spread on social media, although authorities swiftly wiped them from the internet.
‘Let us strike from schools and from work and remove the dictatorial traitor Xi Jinping,’ one banner declared, while another said: ‘No Covid test, we want to eat. No restrictions, we want freedom. No lies, we want dignity. No Cultural Revolution, we want reform. No leaders, we want votes. By not being slaves, we can be citizens.’
Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said it was a ‘very brave, and in many ways, also very sacrificing’ move with its proximity to the start of the Party Congress, which she described as perhaps the ‘most important political event in China.’
It is a ‘very risky move to do this in such a public and relatively high-profile manner,’ and those who made the banners will likely face severe consequences, she added.
In 2018, Xi eliminated presidential term limits, paving the way for him to reign indefinitely, and immortalized ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ in the party constitution. That has laid the foundation for him to likely secure a third five-year term at Sunday’s 20th Party Congress—defying the established convention of two-term rules and further consolidating his grip on power.
Authorities have tightened already-rigid measures in the lead-up to the event, including by bolstering Beijing’s police presence, curbing travel, and ramping up testing in an effort to avoid COVID-19 outbreaks.
In this week’s China Brief newsletter, FP’s James Palmer has written a crucial guide to the 20th Party Congress that explains what you should expect from the event—and what still remains unknown.
‘There is no question of who is in charge,’ he wrote. ‘The question is who falls beneath him and whether they have any real power to push their own agendas, especially when it comes to fixing an increasingly shaky economy.’” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Deteriorating U.S.-Saudi relations. Saudi Arabia has issued a lengthy statement justifying OPEC+’s decision to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day, asserting that it was ‘based purely on economic considerations.’ Riyadh also indicated that Washington wanted to delay the cuts by one month over midterms—a delay that it said would have resulted in ‘negative economic consequences.’
The White House’s response was blunt. ‘The Saudi foreign ministry can try to spin or deflect, but the facts are simple,’ said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. Other OPEC countries also opposed the decision, and Riyadh knew that limiting production would boost Russia’s finances, he added.” Read more at Foreign Policy
N. Korea fires missile, artillery shells, inflaming tensions
By HYUNG-JIN KIM and KIM TONG-HYUNG
“SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea fired a ballistic missile and hundreds of artillery shells toward the sea Friday and flew warplanes near the tense border with South Korea, further raising animosities triggered by the North’s recent barrage of weapons tests.
The North Korean moves suggest it is reviving an old playbook of stoking fears of war with provocative weapons tests before it seeks to win greater concessions from its rivals.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement the short-range missile lifted off from the North’s capital region at 1:49 a.m. Friday (1649 GMT Thursday; 12:49 p.m. EDT Thursday) and flew toward its eastern waters.
It was North Korea’s 15th missile launch since it resumed testing activities Sept. 25. North Korea said Monday its recent missile tests were simulations of nuclear strikes on South Korean and U.S. targets in response to their ‘dangerous’ military exercises involving a U.S. aircraft carrier.” Read more at AP News
“Iraq’s new president. After a lengthy political deadlock, Iraq’s parliament has selected Abdul Latif Rashid to be the country’s new president and kicked off the process to form a new government. Rashid is a Kurdish politician and Iraq’s former minister of water resources. He named Muhammed al-Sudani as the new prime minister; Sudani must now create a new cabinet in 30 days.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Iran’s crackdown on students. As Iranian students take part in sweeping protests that have roiled the country, officials have responded by sending them to psychiatric institutions. ‘It is possible these students have become ‘anti-social characters’ and we want to reform them,’ Yousef Nouri, Iran’s education minister, told an Iranian newspaper.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“The toll of Nigeria’s floods. Severe floods inundating Nigeria have killed around 500 people, wounded 1,546, and displaced 1.4 million more, the Nigerian Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs announced on Wednesday. The deluge—Nigeria’s heaviest flooding in 10 years—has also destroyed more than 45,000 homes and at least 70,000 hectares of farming land. The ongoing floods have also devastated neighboring countries such as Cameroon, Niger, and Chad, as FP’s Nosmot Gbadamosi reported in Africa Brief last month.” Read more at Foreign Policy
“Turkey criminalized the spread of what authorities describe as false information on digital platforms, giving the government new powers ahead of elections next year.” Read more at Bloomberg
“Sweden’s right-wing political bloc, which won last month’s general election, has reached an agreement on governing the country, though the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats won’t enter the cabinet.” Read more at Bloomberg
“A double murder in a gay bar in Slovakia’s capital has rattled nerves in the eastern European nation, prompting the president to denounce a political climate that she said fuels hate.” Read more at Bloomberg
Rate hikes have arguably contributed to mortgage rates increasing to 20-year highs, thus making buying a new home out of reach for many Americans. | Allison Dinner/Getty Images
TAKE A HIKE — So far this year, the Federal Reserve has taken out its giant sledgehammer (interest rate hikes) and bonked the economy on the head five times to try and beat down the kind of nasty spike in inflation not seen since “E.T. the Extraterrestrial” topped box charts in 1982.
It’s all done … well, pretty much nothing.
Consumer price data for the month of September released today showed so-called core inflation — which strips out volatile food and energy — rising to 6.6 percent from the same time last year, the hottest pace since E.T. gobbled up all those Reese’s Pieces (Google it, very young people).
Headline inflation including food and energy rose at an 8.2 percent pace, down but only by a hair from 8.3 percent last month.
What Chair Jerome Powell and the Fed care about is the core number . And despite the five rate hikes totaling 3 percent this year, the Fed has made essentially no progress in slowing broad-based inflation that is especially acute in rents and services, including health care and transportation. Core inflation rose 0.6 percent in the month of September, just as it did in August.
What does this all mean? Well, first it means the Fed will keep raising interest rates at a rapid clip, including three-quarters of a point (at least) at its meeting next month. Second, it means that Democrats hoping for more relief from voter anger (and GOP attack ads) over inflation before the midterms are not going to get it.
While the party could still somehow manage to overcome electoral history and economic misery and hold onto the House and/or the Senate, it will have to rely on swing voters animated by abortion, fear of the Donald Trump-dominated GOP and other issues to do it.
Because the economy — despite rock-bottom unemployment of 3.5 percent — is going to remain an ugly, dead weight slung around their necks. Not only have the Fed rate hikes thus far done nothing to trim demand and tame prices, they have arguably pushed in the other direction, jacking up mortgage rates to 20-year highs near 7 percent, thus making buying a new home out of reach for many Americans.
That, in turn, has helped drive up rents. The owners’ equivalent rent index jumped 0.8 percent in September, the largest monthly increase since June 1990, when the Internet did not exist and the Washington NFL team actually won games.
In other words, congrats, younger Americans! You can’t afford that house. But worry not! You also get to pay insanely high rent.
Fed officials and economists in general still argue that inflation as measured by CPI probably peaked in June at 9.1 percent. And they point to other measures, like producer prices and surveys of businesses showing less-messed-up supply chains, to suggest inflation pressure is really easing more than backward-looking numbers like CPI show. They may be correct. But it’s not a lock.
And while the Fed really just has that one blunt instrument at its disposal, the economy appears to be screaming out for structural reforms, especially on housing and immigration. Many economists argue that reduced legal immigration during the Trump years and a more stringent approach to undocumented workers helped make an already tight labor market even tighter, driving up employer costs and overall inflation.
There is also nowhere near enough housing supply to exert downward pressure on prices. These are broader issues we can discuss another time. The Biden administration is trying to address some of them with industrial and ‘care economy’ policies. But that’s a long-term project. Republicans, meanwhile, mostly want to focus on the supply side of the economy, meaning slashing taxes and regulations on businesses, especially energy producers.
While this plays out, the Fed will keep using its sledgehammer until unemployment starts to rise, wage pressures ease, consumer and business demand falls and prices drop back toward the central bank’s annual goal of inflation around 2 percent. And as it swings away, the risks of bashing the economy into serious and prolonged recession rise.
OK, so if the news was so bad, why did Wall Street whipsaw from crashing at the open today to closing sharply higher? The short answer is: Who knows? Wall Street is weird. It’s fun to try and assign a rational reason for a single day’s trading. But also largely impossible.
Among potential reasons: hope that the U.K. is rethinking its wild tax cut plans; general seller fatigue after days of declines; and a belief that the Fed will hike so much that it causes a sharp recession and has to start cutting again (sounds crazy, I know).
While we wound up on the good side of the swing today, this kind of volatility is usually a sign of broader dangers ahead. It’s certainly not easy on anyone’s nerves. And continued uncertainty over (among many other things) inflation, the Fed and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine promise more roller coaster days ahead. And the possibility of flying right off the rails.” Read at POLITICO
By Nate Cohn
Chief political analyst
Good morning. Campaign polls show how scandal has hurt Herschel Walker’s chances of winning Georgia’s Senate race.
Herschel Walker.Nicole Craine for The New York Times
A notable shift
“In today’s highly polarized political climate, it takes a lot for a scandal to make a big difference in a high-stakes general election.
But if the latest polls are any indication, then recent allegations against Herschel Walker, the Republican Senate nominee in Georgia, might be big enough not only to decide his race but also control of the Senate.
Walker has slipped behind his Democratic opponent, Senator Raphael Warnock, by an average of about 2.5 percentage points across all four polls taken since Oct. 3, when an ex-girlfriend accused Walker of paying for an abortion she had in 2009. Walker has made opposition to abortion a cornerstone of his campaign and has denied the woman’s account.
In polls, just 2.5 points is not a huge shift. Maybe as few as one in 25 of Walker’s former supporters have flipped to Warnock or drifted into the undecided column; Georgia is a closely divided state. And it’s possible this period represents Walker’s low-water mark. While the accusations against him are still fresh, some Republicans may be reluctant to show support for him in responding to pollsters but may ultimately vote for him if the heat of the issue fades for them over the coming weeks.
As recently as a few weeks ago, Georgia was arguably the closest Senate race in the country. Now, every new poll shows Warnock leading, by an average of over three percentage points. (He had already been ahead by about a half point in polls taken by those same four pollsters before the abortion revelations.) And unlike in many other states, the polls have a relatively good track record in Georgia.
Not only does this edge make Warnock a much clearer favorite than a month ago, it’s a wide enough lead to give him a chance of winning the 50 percent of the vote necessary to win outright and avoid a December runoff. (Georgia election law requires a runoff if no candidate secures a majority of ballots.)
And even if Walker does force a runoff, it would pose an additional challenge to the Republicans: Will reluctant Walker voters show up for him in that election? The Warnock vote will be there.
The Senate picture
Walker’s struggles add to Republicans’ challenges in trying to capture Senate control. Weak nominees have cost the Republicans a serious chance in New Hampshire, forced the party to spend millions in what ought to have been the safely Republican state of Ohio and endangered the party’s chances in Arizona and even Pennsylvania. The unpopularity of the television celebrity Dr. Oz may be just enough to keep the Republicans from winning an eminently winnable race in the Keystone State.
Despite those misfires, the Republicans still have a credible path to control of the Senate. They probably need to win just two of three key tossup states: Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada. That task starts looking a lot more challenging if Walker fumbles in Georgia.
Brian Kemp, Georgia’s governor.Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
The governor’s race
The latest polling does offer a good sign for Georgia Republicans: the governor’s race. While many expected the Georgia governor’s race to be one of the marquee contests of the cycle, virtually every poll has shown Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, leading the Democrat Stacey Abrams. On average, Kemp leads Abrams by about five percentage points — an edge he has held all year.
Kemp’s lead is not necessarily a reflection on Abrams but probably reflects his strengths. He’s a relatively traditional, if conservative, Republican who emphasizes his economic stewardship and who certified President Biden’s victory in the 2020 election over Donald Trump’s very public objections. He is also running as an incumbent, which tends to confer an advantage.
And while demographic changes have helped make Georgia competitive, it is not a state where Democrats can win simply by mobilizing a new coalition of progressive voters — at least not yet. Biden won by persuading many traditionally Republican, affluent suburban voters, who just couldn’t stomach Trump. They can stomach Kemp.
If the polls are right, they might not be able to stomach Walker.” Read more at New York Times
Kroger to Merge With Albertsons in a $24.6 Billion Deal
A deal giving companies greater scale as they compete against bigger retailers like Walmart; it would likely face regulatory scrutiny
Kroger will acquire rival Albertsons for $34.10 a share and assume about $4.7 billion of Albertsons’ net debt. PHOTO: BRANDON BELL/GETTY IMAGES
“Kroger Co. KR 1.15%▲ said it is buying rival Albertsons Cos ACI 11.53%▲ Inc. in a deal that values the company at $24.6 billion, one of the biggest deals in the history of the grocery industry in the U.S.
By combining, the companies would gain greater scale and leverage to negotiate with vendors. The deal would also bolster the grocers’ market share and technology to compete better with Walmart Inc. WMT 0.85%▲ and Amazon.com Inc.
The companies said Kroger will acquire Albertsons for $34.10 a share and assume about $4.7 billion of Albertsons’ net debt. They said the cash component of the deal could be reduced by the per-share value, subject to the outcome of a store divestiture process.
As part of the transaction, Albertsons will pay a special cash dividend of up to $4 billion to its shareholders.
The deal—one of the biggest in the $812 billion industry—could face a long road ahead, as antitrust enforcers have challenged some mergers under the Biden administration. Kroger and Albertsons expect to sell overlapping stores as part of the deal to help win regulatory approval, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. The two companies both operate stores in Southern California, Washington, Texas and Washington, D.C., among other places.” Read more at Wall Street Journal
Dems' big flop on Big Tech
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“Democrats talked a big game about reining in Big Tech. But after nearly two years of controlling the agenda in Washington, they've got little to show for it, Axios' Margaret Harding McGill reports.
Why it matters: With Democrats' House majority likely ticking down, pledges to tackle data surveillance, among other issues, haven't translated into new laws.
Lawmakers already have a packed schedule for the lame-duck session — after midterms, and before the new Congress — to fund the government and consider proposals on marriage equality and election reform.
That leaves little time for tech policy bills — even those with some bipartisan support, such as antitrust and privacy measures.
What happened: High-profile bills that would heap new regulations on the tech industry have advanced, but they've yet to cross the finish line:
Antitrust: The House Judiciary Committee passed a package of bills that would alter how Amazon, Apple, Google and Meta operate after a marathon markup in June 2021, and the Senate Judiciary Committee passed some similar measures earlier this year. But despite a pressure campaign from supporters for a Senate floor vote before the summer recess, the most ambitious antitrust proposals have stalled.
Privacy: Democratic and Republican leaders of the House Energy and Commerce Committee authored a federal privacy bill that passed out of their committee by a bipartisan vote in July. But Speaker Pelosi voiced reservations about the potential of the American Data and Privacy Protection Act to impinge on California's privacy law.
Children's online safety — Revelations from Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen spurred hearings + legislation aimed at forcing companies to better protect the interests of children online. The Kids Online Safety Act from Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) advanced from the Senate Commerce Committee in July. But neither has companion legislation in the House.
The bottom line: Tech regulation lost out to COVID, the economy and the climate-health-tax package for much of this Congress.
What's next: If Republicans win control, their natural antipathy toward new market restrictions could prove to be an even bigger barrier to tech regulation.” Read more at Axios
Mortgages hit 20-year high
Data: FactSet. Chart: Axios Markets
“Mortgage rates are at their highest point since April 2002, Matt Phillips writes for Axios Markets.
Why it matters: The recent surge in rates has slammed the brakes on activity in the residential real estate sector.
By the numbers: The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage hit 6.92%, according to Freddie Mac. Just a year ago it hovered around 3%.
In October 2021, the principal and interest payment on the median-priced American home was about $1,500 a month, according to Matt's tinkering on Bankrate's mortgage calculator.
Now: It's nearly $2,400 a month — almost $900 more.
What we're watching: Plunging housing affordability could become a contentious political issue.
The bottom line: The Fed’s rate increase regimen is designed to slow the economy. It's working — and the housing slump is well underway.” Read more at Axios
“The FDA has officially declared a shortage of Adderall, the drug used to treat ADHD and narcolepsy. Many pharmacies around the country have been unable to fill prescriptions and keep up with demand.” Read more at NPR
“Four astronauts are scheduled to splashdown off the coast of Florida today, capping off a nearly six-month mission at the International Space Station. Rough weather has forced some delays, but NASA and SpaceX say the astronauts are still expected to return home at 4:50 p.m. ET. The spacecraft has seven potential landing zones -- just off the coast of Pensacola, Tampa, Tallahassee, Panama City, Cape Canaveral, Daytona and Jacksonville. This mission, called Crew-4, has marked a historic first on the ISS, as Jessica Watkins became the first Black woman to join the space station crew for an extended stay. Also aboard the mission are NASA's Kjell Lindgren, Bob Hines and Italian astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti with the European Space Agency.” Read more at CNN
'Rare' Roman mosaic found in Rastan, Syria
Image caption, The mosaic is one of the best preserved of its kind
“A 1,600-year-old virtually intact Roman-era mosaic has been discovered in central Syria.
The mosaic, measuring 20 x 6m (65.5 x 20ft), was found under a building in Rastan near Homs, which was held by rebels in the civil war until 2018.
Showing mythical scenes including the Trojan and Amazon wars, it is said to be the rarest of its kind.
Many of Syria's archaeological treasures have been damaged after more than a decade of war.
But the latest find is being described as the most important archaeological discovery since the start of the conflict in 2011.
Image caption, It covers an area of about 120 square metres
‘What is in front of us is a discovery that is rare on a global scale,’ Hamman Saad, a senior official at Syria's General Directorate of Museums and Antiquities, told the Associated Press.
He added that the mosaic was rich in detail, portraying the Roman sea god Neptune and 40 of his mistresses, as well as Hercules slaying the Amazon queen Hippolyta.
Rastan was a rebel stronghold and scene of intense fighting until it was captured by Syrian government forces in 2018.” Read more at BBC
Photo Illustration by Becky Harlan/NPR
“Do you really need to drink eight glasses of water a day? Can drinking water help you lose weight? Experts bust five common myths about hydration.” Read more at NPR
“A pair of 19th-century Levi's found years ago in an abandoned mine shaft sold for more than $75,000. A tag on one faded pocket reflects the era's anti-Chinese sentiment.” Read more at NPR
“A dish of living brain cells has learned to play the 1970s arcade game Pong.” Read more at NPR
“A race car built by German students can go from 0 to a little over 62 mph in just 1.461 seconds, breaking the record for the world's fastest accelerating electric car.” Read more at NPR